The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)

24 new polls from 17 states closed out the final work week before election day. Additionally, there were two other surveys from earlier in October factored in as well from a couple of non-competitive states -- Maine and Nebraska.

New State Polls (11/2/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Survey USA/Denver Post	10/28-10/31	+/- 3.8%	695 likely voters	47	45	--	+2	+1.65
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	825 likely voters	50	46	4	+4	--
Connecticut	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 2.8%	1220 likely voters	55	42	3	+13	+11.64
Georgia	20/20 Insight	10/29-10/31	+/- 2.7%	1316 likely voters	46	52	1	+6	+9.04
Hawaii	Civil Beat/Merriman River Group	10/24-10/26	+/- 2.8%	1218 likely voters	61	34	5	+27	+29.35
Indiana	Howey-Depauw	10/28-10/30	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	41	50	--	+9	+12.01
Indiana	McLaughlin	10/31-11/1	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	41	54	5	+13	--
Iowa	Gravis Marketing	11/1	+/- 4.0%	594 likely voters	49	45	6	+4	+2.67
Maine	NMB Research	10/7-10/8	+/- 4.0%	500 likely voters	48	44	--	+4	+13.21
Maine	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 2.4%	1633 likely voters	55	42	2	+13	--
Massachusetts	Kimball Consulting	10/31-11/1	+/- 3.48%	761 likely voters	54.0	41.4	4.6	+12.6	+19.56
Massachusetts	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 3.0%	1089 likely voters	57	42	2	+15	--
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	500 likely voters	52	46	2	+6	+5.72
Michigan	Grove Insight	10/31-11/1	+/- 4.4%	500 registered voters	48	41	9	+7	--
Michigan	Rasmussen	11/1	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	52	47	1	+5	--
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	772 likely voters	53	44	3	+9	+7.90
Montana	Mellman Group	10/28-10/31	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	41	49	--	+8	+9.11
Nebraska	Wiese/Omaha World-Herald	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.8%	679 likely voters	38	52	--	+14	+13.76
Nebraska	We Ask America	11/1	+/- 2.95%	1178 likely voters	41	54	3	+13	--
Nevada	Mellman Group	10/29-10/31	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+4.06
New Hampshire	New England College	10/29-10/31	+/- 3.7%	1017 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+3.30
Ohio	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 2.6%	1649 likely voters	50	46	--	+4	+2.86
Ohio	CNN	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.5%	796 likely voters	50	47	3	+3	--
Ohio	Rasmussen	11/1	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	49	49	1	0	--
Virginia	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.0%	1069 likely voters	49	48	--	+1	+1.69
Wisconsin	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.0%	1210 likely voters	52	45	--	+7	+4.57

This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages  in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.

From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.

The map (changes since 11/1):

Changes (November 2)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Obama	Lean Obama

No change in the overall tally. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	ME-4 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SC-9 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (139)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	WV-5 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (107)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	ND-3 (69)	WY-3 (9)
WA-12 (154)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)

Live by the 3, Die by the 3 (...and other thoughts on what November 6, 2012 is testing)

The Electoral College Map (10/31/12)

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The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)

Thursday brought 21 new surveys from 11 states and one backlogged poll from Virginia. The FHQ weighted averages, especially among the toss up states -- and perhaps some of the more competitive Lean Obama states as well -- have become somewhat entrenched at this point. In those most competitive states, those average margins continue to tick down as more polling data emerges showing a tight race, but a tight race that has been consistent for a couple of weeks now since the post-Denver changes leveled off.

New State Polls (11/1/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Rasmussen	10/29	+/- 4.4%	750 likely voters	47	50	1	+3	+1.59
Colorado	CNN	10/26-10/31	+/- 3.5%	764 likely voters	50	48	1	+2	--
Colorado	CallFire	10/29-10/31	+/- 3.4%	839 likely voters	49	48	2	+1	--
Florida	Grove Insight	10/28-10/29	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	47	5	+1	+0.31
Indiana	McLaughlin	10/24-10/25	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	41	55	4	+14	+12.30
Indiana	McLaughlin	10/29-10/30	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	39	57	4	+18	--
Iowa	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/28-10/29	+/- 2.9%	1142 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+2.62
Iowa	Rasmussen	10/30	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	48	49	1	+1	--
Iowa	CallFire	10/29-10/31	+/- 3.4%	891 likely voters	50	47	2	+3	--
Nevada	CallFire	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.4%	909 likely voters	50	46	3	+4	+3.99
Nevada	Survey USA	10/23-10/29	+/- 2.9%	1212 likely voters	50	46	2	+4	--
New Hampshire	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/28-10/29	+/- 3.1%	1242 likely voters	49	47	3	+2	+3.19
North Carolina	High Point University	10/22-10/30	+/- 5.0%	403 registered voters	45	46	9	+1	+1.53
Ohio	Wenzel Strategies	10/30-10/31	+/- 2.7%	1281 likely voters	46	49	--	+3	+2.88
Rhode Island	WPRI/Flemming	10/24-10/27	+/- 4.0%	601 likely voters	54	33	8	+21	+23.61
Virginia	McLaughlin	10/8-10/9	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	44	51	4	+7	+1.71
Washington	University of Washington	10/18-10/31	+/- 3.9%	632 likely voters	57	36	3	+21	+13.70
Washington	Survey USA	10/28-10/31	+/- 4.2%	555 likely voters	54	40	--	+14	--
Wisconsin	St. Norbert/WPR	10/25-10/29	+/- 5.0%	402 likely voters	52	43	--	+9	+4.52
Wisconsin	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/28-10/29	+/- 3.0%	1065 likely voters	49	46	3	+3	--
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	10/29	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	49	49	2	0	--
Wisconsin	Wenzel Strategies	10/30-10/31	+/- 3.0%	1074 likely voters	49	47	--	+2	--

Again, things aren't budging much, nor should we expect them to move, whether drastically or otherwise, all that much between now and next Tuesday. There may be a few outliers on the board above, but the ordering of states seen below in the Electoral College Spectrum remains unchanged among the toss up states. Those three tiers that we have been talking about for over a week now are still there: Tier one (Florida, Colorado, Virginia), Tier two (New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa) and Tier three (Wisconsin, Nevada). Those tier one states had been slightly tipped toward Romney in the polling over the last couple of weeks -- particularly in Florida -- but now appear to be virtually tied. Again, that's in recent polling. In the FHQ averages, the president continues to hold small and shrinking advantages in each. Florida is basically tied and Virginia and Colorado are in the 1-2 point range; well within reach for the Romney campaign. The tier three states look like Obama states at this point. That is probably truer in Nevada than in Wisconsin as there are a handful of public polls that have Obama up by large margins pitted against other polling in the Badger state showing a very tight race.

The real action -- at least through the lens of the FHQ weighted averages -- is in that middle tier; tier two. Those three states are now in a range (in the averages) of 2.5 and 3.5 points in the president's favor. It should be noted that Ohio is by far the biggest state in that group and holds the power to tip the election in one direction or the other that Iowa and New Hampshire just do not hold in the electoral college.

The map (changes since 10/31): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/31): No change among the toss up states.
Indiana trades places with South Carolina.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SC-9 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (139)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	WV-5 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (107)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	ND-3 (69)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/31): No change.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
Live by the 3, Die by the 3 (...and other thoughts on what November 6, 2012 is testing)

The Electoral College Map (10/31/12)

Happy Halloween, 2012

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.