The Electoral College Map (9/22/12)

Though YouGov released its new polling data in a series of the toss up states on Thursday, FHQ decided to hold tight and roll out all 27 surveys from the internet-based polling firm at once (and on an otherwise slow Saturday).

New State Polls (9/22/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.7%	628 likely voters	41	51	4	+10	+7.00
California	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.1%	1361 likely voters	56	39	2	+17	+19.24
Colorado	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	707 likely voters	50	45	2	+5	+2.48
Connecticut	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	634 likely voters	53	40	5	+13	+12.14
Florida	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.6%	1415 likely voters	49	47	2	+2	+0.66
Georgia	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.8%	1020 likely voters	44	51	3	+7	+10.47
Illinois	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.3%	1068 likely voters	59	36	3	+23	+19.84
Indiana	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.9%	658 likely voters	45	50	4	+5	+9.00
Iowa	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.2%	700 likely voters	48	43	5	+5	+2.29
Maryland	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.2%	686 likely voters	57	37	3	+20	+21.04
Massachusetts	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.6%	825 likely voters	55	39	4	+16	+19.86
Michigan	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.5%	1114 likely voters	51	42	4	+9	+5.57
Minnesota	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.7%	816 likely voters	50	42	4	+8	+9.47
Missouri	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.0%	734 likely voters	43	50	4	+7	+7.35
Nevada	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 5.2%	541 likely voters	51	44	3	+7	+4.35
New Hampshire	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 6.4%	340 likely voters	48	42	5	+6	+3.85
New Jersey	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.4%	1040 likely voters	52	40	4	+12	+12.59
New Mexico	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 7.8%	293 likely voters	51	43	1	+8	+10.06
New York	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 2.7%	1403 likely voters	58	36	4	+22	+24.88
North Carolina	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.3%	1060 likely voters	46	48	4	+2	+1.31
Ohio	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.3%	1036 likely voters	47	44	2	+3	+3.30
Pennsylvania	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	1139 likely voters	52	43	2	+9	+7.48
Tennessee	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	694 likely voters	42	50	4	+8	+7.00
Texas	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	1165 likely voters	41	53	2	+12	+13.50
Virginia	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.27%	1047 likely voters	48	44	6	+4	+3.13
Washington	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 3.9%	880 likely voters	53	39	3	+14	+13.18
Wisconsin	YouGov	9/7-9/14	+/- 4.5%	753 likely voters	48	47	4	+1	+4.90

We'll spare you the state-by-state rundown.

Changes (September 22)
State	Before	After
Indiana	Strong Romney	Lean Romney
Wisconsin	Lean Obama	Toss Up Obama

The truth of the matter is that these polls are mostly consistent with the picture already formed throughout many of these states. The instances where the color coding for the poll margin and the color coding of the FHQ weighted average margin differ are few and far between (seven of 27 states). That isn't to say that there aren't potential issues with an internet-based poll, but YouGov has been a fairly accurate pollster on the state level over the last two cycles and that seems to be the case here (...at least as compared to the pool of polls in each state represented).

Among the ways -- but certainly not the only one -- to check that statement is to look at how the firm has done here in taking a snapshot of each state that is also true to the rank ordering of states that has emerged over the course of this year. Ohio and Virginia, for example, appear to be in lockstep with each other as the states have been for quite a while now. Michigan and Wisconsin -- two states that have been in a similar position to the aforementioned pair -- on the other hand seem to be "moving" away from each other. Looking at the other toss ups, North Carolina and Florida look to be more in the Ohio/Virginia category as do the pairs of Colorado and Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada. And that underlines the rough hierarchy of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below. From the Romney perspective, North Carolina/Florida form the first layer followed by Iowa/Colorado, Virginia/Ohio(/New Hampshire) and (New Hampshire/)Nevada/Wisconsin.

...or we could just strike all of that and say that Michigan isn't really a toss up and that is what we are seeing.

As for the map, the new polls didn't so much shake up the preexisting order as they did recalibrate a number of states. Wisconsin may have shifted back to the Toss Up Obama category, but the Badger state has been dancing around the line between the Toss Up and Lean categories for a few weeks now. Similarly, Indiana -- though with far less polling conducted -- has hovered with more variability around the Lean/Strong line and has on the strength of a tight YouGov poll slid back into the Lean category while remaining well outside of the president's grasp.

Below on the Spectrum, not much was really altered despite quite a bit of new data. There was some shuffling among the Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois and California group in the far left column and Texas jumped up a handful of spots. Tennessee continues to poll closer than it has voted in many of the last series of general elections. But where it counts -- in the middle column in the toss up states -- things remained just as they have been.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	VA-13 (288/263)	IN-11 (153)	KY-8 (46)
HI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	CO-9 (297/250)	GA-16 (142)	AL-9 (38)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	LA-8 (79)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	NE-5 (71)	ID-4 (13)
ME-4 (143)	WI-10 (247)	AZ-11 (188)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
DE-3 (146)	NV-6 (253)	TN-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Georgia and Indiana come back on while Wisconsin remains but is now on the verge of moving into the Lean category instead of into the Toss Up area. The Badger state along with Michigan and Nevada continue to be states to watch. If Romney can play offense or make Obama play defense there, it may -- may -- make efforts to sway Florida across the partisan line into the red more likely. To this point, though, Florida has consistently been on that edge without switching sides.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Indiana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. New Hampshire, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/21/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/12)

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The Electoral College Map (9/21/12)

Eleven new polls from ten states closed out the work week on Friday. The snapshot offered more of the same even with a series of toss up state polls from Purple Strategies; a firm that has been more favorable to Romney than not throughout the year.

New State Polls (9/21/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	45	48	7	+3	+6.55
California	PPIC	9/9-9/16	+/- 4.4%	995 likely voters	53	39	6	+14	+19.45
Colorado	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	45	7	+3	+2.56
Florida	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	48	5	+1	+0.62
Georgia	Insider Advantage	9/18	+/- 4.5%	483 likely voters	35	56	7	+21	+11.30
Michigan	Michigan State University/State of the State	6/12-8/13	+/- 3.08%	1015 adults	39	30	30	+9	+5.40
North Carolina	High Point University	9/8-9/18	+/- 4.7%	448 registered voters	48	44	5	+4	+1.27
North Carolina	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	46	6	+2	--
Ohio	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	44	8	+4	+3.31
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	9/19	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	51	39	7	+12	+7.39
Virginia	Purple Strategies	9/15-9/19	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	46	43	11	+3	+3.10

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Nowhere was the phenomenon alluded to above more clearly on display than in the Purple Strategies survey of Arizona. Romney has been comfortably ahead in most polls all year in the Grand Canyon state. On average, most have found the race to be well within the Lean Romney category, but a few polls have found the race in Arizona to either be in the toss up area or the strong area. The former occurred more toward the beginning of the year when the Republican nomination race was still ongoing. The latter have popped up -- to the extent they have -- in the late spring and into the summer.  In fact, that had appeared to be the trajectory of polling there -- toward the line separating the lean and strong categories on the Romney side. As such, this latest poll of the state is atypical. The gap may have closed some in Arizona, but we don't have enough evidence to suggest as much at this point. Though it would stand to reason that if the polls have moved in Obama's direction nationally, then that would apply to a peripheral toss up state like Arizona. And Arizona has not really been a toss up state. If it has, it is a toss up state on the order of Pennsylvania on the Obama side: talked about occasionally as a toss up, but with no real evidence to back it up in terms of polling or campaign resource allocation.

California:
PPIC shows a smaller margin than we have seen in other Golden state surveys of late, but a +14 hardly puts California on the board for Romney. It is still blue. Nothing to see here.

Colorado:
Colorado seems to be entrenched in this +2-3 point Obama lead range with very little variability. Sure, the occasional Romney lead will appear -- in the Rasmussen surveys most recently released -- but the evidence continues to point to a small but consistent advantage for the president with few outliers. The changes between this Purple Strategies poll and the last speak to that. There were no changes other than the two candidates dropping a point each since the August survey. Obama still leads by three and that is in line with what the true margin in the Centennial state seem to be.

Florida:
See Colorado. The consistency poll-over-poll that existed in the Purple Strategies polls of Colorado are present in Florida as well. Yes, Obama has the tiniest of leads in the FHQ weighted average of Florida, so the fact that Romney is ahead in this poll is seemingly out of step with average -- unlike Colorado -- but in a state that is basically tied, a one point Romney lead is not any kind of outlier. The Purple Strategies surveys are slightly more Romney-favorable and that tips Romney into the lead in the Sunshine state. But this poll is not only consistent with the last PS poll, but the recent polling in the state as whole.

Georgia:

Changes (September 21)
State	Before	After
Georgia	Lean Romney	Strong Romney

The comedy of the video in the write up to this poll linked above aside -- Obama is at 5% instead of 35% in the graphic -- a 21 point gap in the Peach state is pretty wide. That is not to suggest that it is not possible, rather that we have yet to witness such a margin in Georgia given the scant amount of publicly available data. The Insider Advantage survey represents both the high point for Romney and low point for Obama in Georgia polling conducted this year. Romney had settled into the lower to mid-50s with Obama camped out in the low 40s. This is more polling volatility than anything else.

Michigan:
FHQ will bypass much of this MSU poll. It is outdated and has an inordinate amount of undecided respondents. That has more to do with the fact that the data was gathered over a two month period prior to the conventions than anything else. [Even then, the number of undecideds was very high.] The key thing to look at here -- if there is a key in a poll that was in the field most recently over a month ago -- is the margin. In its proper context, that +9 Obama number is a great deal higher than most of the other polling conducted over the same period. It does, however, fit nicely, albeit out of context, in the post-convention polling of the Great Lakes state.

North Carolina:
One thing that FHQ has been wrong about in the time since the conventions has been the notion that the Obama campaign would pull out of North Carolina sooner rather than later following the Charlotte convention. That Obama is still within striking distance -- much less in the lead in some polls -- in the Tar Heel state says more about the current state of the race than anything else. That Obama is able to play offense in a state that "should" have swung back toward Romney more is not good news for the Republican nominee. That the president is ahead in two non-PPP surveys is even more troubling. PPP had been the only firm showing or continuing to show North Carolina within a point or so for the president. Everything else had shown some movement toward Romney.

Ohio:
There is little to get all that excited about in yet another +3-5 point edge for the president in Ohio. That that type of margin has become customary is, perhaps, the real story. However, in continuing the talking point around the Purple Strategies surveys above. Colorado and Florida may not have budged since last month, but Ohio shifted from Romney +2 to Obama + 4. The intra-firm poll-to-poll consistency is lacking, then, but it does move PS in with other polling in the Buckeye state. Well, the firm is now in line with the FHQ average if still a little behind where the trajectory of looks to be heading post-convention in Ohio.

Pennsylvania:
Look, I'm not one to dwell on the house effects that any given polling firm may have, but if Rasmussen is indicating a twelve point spread in Pennsylvania, then it is pretty clear why neither campaign is actively campaigning in the Keystone state. It just is not all that competitive and the fact that the four point Obama advantage in the July Rasmussen poll has ballooned to three times that is as indicative of that fact as anything else.

Virginia:
See Ohio. An August Romney lead in Virginia is now a September advantage for Obama in the poll-over-poll comparison of Purple Strategies polls. As was the case in Ohio, this survey is in line with the overall FHQ weighted average for Virginia but lags behind where some recent polling has shown the Old Dominion to be.

What all of this means strategically is that Romney is still up against it and even more so with the polls not moving in the Republican nominee's direction where it counts: in the toss up states. The map is only slightly changed with Georgia becoming safer for Romney, but that is a small and inconsequential change when looking at an electoral vote tally that has held steady since July. The stationarity of it all is highlighted by the fact that even with the new data in a series of toss up states, the same basic alignment continues to emerge on the Electoral College Spectrum. Sure, Georgia and Montana switched places as did California and Maryland, but among the toss ups the alignment is the same in the president leads everywhere but North Carolina (...and some of the polling is indicating that even the outlook there may be changing).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	VA-13 (288/263)	GA-16 (153)	KY-8 (46)
HI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	CO-9 (297/250)	IN-11 (137)	AL-9 (38)
MA-11 (54)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (119)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
IL-20 (139)	MI-16 (237)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
ME-4 (143)	WI-10 (247)	SD-3 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
DE-3 (146)	NV-6 (253)	AZ-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Outside of Florida and Michigan, none of the other states currently on the Watch List were represented in the polling data released today. And it should be noted that Florida and Michigan remain just where they were on the list before the new information was added to the FHQ dataset. Georgia, on the strength of the wide margin in the latest Insider Advantage poll, went from well within the Lean Romney category to well within the Strong Romney category without approaching the Watch List as it passed. That has as much to do with the number of polls conducted in Georgia as it does the impact of that one survey on the FHQ weighted average. The bottom line overall is that the Watch List is today exactly what it was a day ago.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. New Hampshire, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/20/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.