Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/23/12)

After loading up on YouGov data a day ago, Sunday was much quieter on the polling front. Six new surveys from four states did little to alter the landscape on which the race for 270 electoral votes is waged.

New State Polls (9/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
9/17-9/19
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
48
47
4
+1
+0.77
Florida
9/20-9/23
+/- 3.3%
861 likely voters
50
46
4
+4
--
Nebraska
9/17-9/20
+/- 3.8%
656 likely voters
39
53
6
+14
+14.05
Ohio
9/13-9/18
+/- 3.3%
861 likely voters
51
46
2
+5
+3.36
Pennsylvania
9/15-9/17
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+6.87
Pennsylvania
9/18-9/20
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
47
45
6
+2
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
To put this in fairly stark terms, there is going to have to be a decided shift toward Romney to break from the +1 Romney to +5 (or so) Obama range that has seemingly lasted for all of 2012. The small advantage the president holds in the Sunshine state is well within reach for the Republican nominee, but the consistency of polling there means that it will take a rather large event or series of events to move the needle.

Nebraska:
Any data from Nebraska is good data even if it confirms what we already knew about the race in the Cornhusker state: It is red and solidly in Romney's column.

Ohio:
Obama continues to lead in the Buckeye state. There have been fourteen polls released in Ohio since mid-August and Romney has led in just one and tie in just one other. Though the margin is higher in Ohio, the same message from Florida resonates here as well. It is all a matter of breaking from the consistency in polling that has emerged.

Pennsylvania:
FHQ wrote a couple of days ago that Pennsylvania is not on the candidates' radars right now and that the publicly available polling backs that up. That is not the case with the two Susquehanna surveys above. Together, both polls represent the closest Romney has been in Pennsylvania since Susquehanna found the race tied back in March. The trajectory of survey data in the Keystone state has been toward the president throughout though. The issue here seems to be that the Romney share of response in these two polls is on the high side given recent polling and Obama's share is only slightly below his recent low point.


For once, both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remained unchanged after the addition of just five new polls today. The tally still stands where it did in mid-July when FHQ began cataloging and averaging the data. The balance tips toward the president by a margin of 332-206 based on the fact that he has consistently held down leads in all of the various toss up states but North Carolina.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
KY-8
(46)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
CO-9
(297/250)
GA-16
(142)
AL-9
(38)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Moving forward, the list of states to keep an eye on -- the Watch List -- is also stuck in the status quo. The trio of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are strategically important to Romney -- if only to make the president play defense -- and all are hovering right around the Lean/Toss Up line. Meanwhile, Florida continues to be perched on another line; just to the Obama side of the partisan line. Those remain the states to watch most intently.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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Saturday, September 22, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/22/12)

Though YouGov released its new polling data in a series of the toss up states on Thursday, FHQ decided to hold tight and roll out all 27 surveys from the internet-based polling firm at once (and on an otherwise slow Saturday).

New State Polls (9/22/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.7%
628 likely voters
41
51
4
+10
+7.00
California
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.1%
1361 likely voters
56
39
2
+17
+19.24
Colorado
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.5%
707 likely voters
50
45
2
+5
+2.48
Connecticut
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.5%
634 likely voters
53
40
5
+13
+12.14
Florida
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.6%
1415 likely voters
49
47
2
+2
+0.66
Georgia
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.8%
1020 likely voters
44
51
3
+7
+10.47
Illinois
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.3%
1068 likely voters
59
36
3
+23
+19.84
Indiana
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.9%
658 likely voters
45
50
4
+5
+9.00
Iowa
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.2%
700 likely voters
48
43
5
+5
+2.29
Maryland
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.2%
686 likely voters
57
37
3
+20
+21.04
Massachusetts
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.6%
825 likely voters
55
39
4
+16
+19.86
Michigan
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.5%
1114 likely voters
51
42
4
+9
+5.57
Minnesota
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.7%
816 likely voters
50
42
4
+8
+9.47
Missouri
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.0%
734 likely voters
43
50
4
+7
+7.35
Nevada
9/7-9/14
+/- 5.2%
541 likely voters
51
44
3
+7
+4.35
New Hampshire
9/7-9/14
+/- 6.4%
340 likely voters
48
42
5
+6
+3.85
New Jersey
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.4%
1040 likely voters
52
40
4
+12
+12.59
New Mexico
9/7-9/14
+/- 7.8%
293 likely voters
51
43
1
+8
+10.06
New York
9/7-9/14
+/- 2.7%
1403 likely voters
58
36
4
+22
+24.88
North Carolina
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.3%
1060 likely voters
46
48
4
+2
+1.31
Ohio
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.3%
1036 likely voters
47
44
2
+3
+3.30
Pennsylvania
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.9%
1139 likely voters
52
43
2
+9
+7.48
Tennessee
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.9%
694 likely voters
42
50
4
+8
+7.00
Texas
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.9%
1165 likely voters
41
53
2
+12
+13.50
Virginia
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.27%
1047 likely voters
48
44
6
+4
+3.13
Washington
9/7-9/14
+/- 3.9%
880 likely voters
53
39
3
+14
+13.18
Wisconsin
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.5%
753 likely voters
48
47
4
+1
+4.90

We'll spare you the state-by-state rundown.
Changes (September 22)
StateBeforeAfter
IndianaStrong RomneyLean Romney
WisconsinLean ObamaToss Up Obama
The truth of the matter is that these polls are mostly consistent with the picture already formed throughout many of these states. The instances where the color coding for the poll margin and the color coding of the FHQ weighted average margin differ are few and far between (seven of 27 states). That isn't to say that there aren't potential issues with an internet-based poll, but YouGov has been a fairly accurate pollster on the state level over the last two cycles and that seems to be the case here (...at least as compared to the pool of polls in each state represented).

Among the ways -- but certainly not the only one -- to check that statement is to look at how the firm has done here in taking a snapshot of each state that is also true to the rank ordering of states that has emerged over the course of this year. Ohio and Virginia, for example, appear to be in lockstep with each other as the states have been for quite a while now. Michigan and Wisconsin -- two states that have been in a similar position to the aforementioned pair -- on the other hand seem to be "moving" away from each other. Looking at the other toss ups, North Carolina and Florida look to be more in the Ohio/Virginia category as do the pairs of Colorado and Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada. And that underlines the rough hierarchy of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below. From the Romney perspective, North Carolina/Florida form the first layer followed by Iowa/Colorado, Virginia/Ohio(/New Hampshire) and (New Hampshire/)Nevada/Wisconsin.

...or we could just strike all of that and say that Michigan isn't really a toss up and that is what we are seeing.


As for the map, the new polls didn't so much shake up the preexisting order as they did recalibrate a number of states. Wisconsin may have shifted back to the Toss Up Obama category, but the Badger state has been dancing around the line between the Toss Up and Lean categories for a few weeks now. Similarly, Indiana -- though with far less polling conducted -- has hovered with more variability around the Lean/Strong line and has on the strength of a tight YouGov poll slid back into the Lean category while remaining well outside of the president's grasp.

Below on the Spectrum, not much was really altered despite quite a bit of new data. There was some shuffling among the Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois and California group in the far left column and Texas jumped up a handful of spots. Tennessee continues to poll closer than it has voted in many of the last series of general elections. But where it counts -- in the middle column in the toss up states -- things remained just as they have been.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
IN-11
(153)
KY-8
(46)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
CO-9
(297/250)
GA-16
(142)
AL-9
(38)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Georgia and Indiana come back on while Wisconsin remains but is now on the verge of moving into the Lean category instead of into the Toss Up area. The Badger state along with Michigan and Nevada continue to be states to watch. If Romney can play offense or make Obama play defense there, it may -- may -- make efforts to sway Florida across the partisan line into the red more likely. To this point, though, Florida has consistently been on that edge without switching sides.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Indiana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. New Hampshire, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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