The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/3/11)

Delaware's presidential primary move to April 24 means another calendar update:

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

An additional note on WHY ON EARTH Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are placed in December.

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota Republican caucuses (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Idaho Republican caucuses (+70) (moved: 7/16/11)

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Minnesota Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/17/11)

Ohio

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)

Saturday, March 24:

Louisiana (-42) (bills: House) (moved: 6/29/11)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut (-77) (bills: House) (moved: 7/8/11)

Delaware (-77) (bills: Senate) (moved: 7/27/11)

New York (-77) (bills: Assembly/Senate) (moved: 7/13/11)

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island (-49) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 7/1/11)

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

Ohio (-63) (bills: House) (moved: 7/5/11)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California (-119) (bills: Assembly) (moved: 7/29/11)

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁵ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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Recent Posts:

Wisconsin Assembly Committee Unanimously Passes April Presidential Primary Bill

RNC Chair Makes Clear Rules Will Be Enforced on Early, Non-Compliant Primary/Caucus States

Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Wisconsin Assembly Committee Unanimously Passes April Presidential Primary Bill

On Tuesday, August 2, the Wisconsin Assembly Election and Campaign Reform Committee unanimously passed AB 162 by an 8-0 vote. This move temporarily assuages any fears that Wisconsin may reconsider maintaining its current third Tuesday in February presidential primary date. There has never been any direct threat from anyone in Wisconsin in terms of keeping the February date. However, as more states have vocalized potential plans to hold non-compliant primaries, that earlier date, from a purely speculative perspective, has to be potentially more appealing to legislators in Wisconsin.

For the time being, actions speak louder and the Republican-controlled legislature has taken one more step closer to moving the presidential primary back to the first Tuesday in April. Curiously, the Assembly committee did not simultaneously act on the Senate-passed version of the primary bill (SB 115). It remains in the Assembly Election and Campaign Reform Committee for now.

The bill now moves to the Assembly Rules Committee for consideration. At this time there isno Rules Committee meeting planned during August. That said, the primary scheduling should be set in Wisconsin no later than the September 13-22 floor period in which the full legislature will be back in session.

Hat tip to Jason Rae for passing along this news.

Recent Posts:

RNC Chair Makes Clear Rules Will Be Enforced on Early, Non-Compliant Primary/Caucus States

Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

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RNC Chair Makes Clear Rules Will Be Enforced on Early, Non-Compliant Primary/Caucus States

Republican National Committee chairman, Reince Priebus, made quite plain in a Tampa press conference this morning that the RNC plans to stick to the enforcement of its 2012 delegate selection rules. More specifically this applied to the group of rogue states considering early and non-compliant primaries and caucuses.

Via Bill Rufty at The Ledger:

“There is a pretty big desire by the committee to make sure rules are enforced,” he [Reince Priebus] said at a Tampa press conference this morning.

FHQ, as we have mentioned recently, has a different way of thinking about the environment in which the 2012 presidential primary is in at the current moment. The above statement from Priebus is nothing observers watching this process should not expect anyway. Of course the chair of the Republican Party is going to maintain a line in which he touts the rules the party has set for delegate selection in next year's presidential nomination race. That 50% delegate deduction is the only real weapon the national party has against potentially rogue states.

Priebus is going to flex whatever muscle he has on this issue, then. But it is still an open question if leaning on that penalty in public -- and in private possibly the fact that the party can stiffen the penalties on states in violation (Rule 16.e.3) -- will be enough to get states in line with the rules. In FHQ's estimation, that is not a possibility at this point with Florida, Arizona, Michigan and maybe Georgia and Colorado. The objective of the national party now is to prevent those rogue states from becoming "too rogue".

As we have maintained here at FHQ since the Arizona-to-January-31 possibility came to light, the 2012 calendar is in murky territory now. Most states have moved already or are on a path to moving into compliance with the national parties' rules. However, there are a handful of free agents where the aim is not clear; not publicly anyway. But that free agent status allows these states a freedom and flexibility unlike most other states. The Floridas, Michigans, Arizonas and Georgias of the world can wait later to decide on dates and that puts them in a position to negotiate with the national parties -- in this case the Republican Party -- for a prime spot on the calendar. And they can hold the possibility of calendar chaos over the national party's head as a bargaining chip.

That is what we are seeing now. Arizona, Florida, Michigan and others are threatening the calendar and the national party is responding. The response isn't any different from the Republican perspective than it was in 2008 and that did not and does not apparently wield enough power to outweigh these rogue states' willingness to defy the rules in order to have an impact over the nomination contest. Comments from Arizona governor, Jan Brewer's (R), spokesman, Matthew Benson, highlight the balance at the heart of a rogue state's decision making (via Mary Quinn O'Connor at Fox News):

"She is leaning towards January 31, a date that would put Arizona toward the front of the primary schedule," Brewer spokesman Matthew Benson told foxnews.com. "She thinks it would be appropriate for voters in this state to really have an opportunity to weigh in on the selection of nominees for president."

"More than anything, she wants to make certain Arizona plays a central role in the nomination process... that they have the ability to see presidential candidates and sell their platforms," said Benson.

"There are consequences to moving in advance of March 6, but it is important to keep in mind that our state law gives the governor unilateral authority to move up the primary date," said Benson.

"Moving the primary date backward would require changing state law," said Benson. "It is a possibility. She is weighing the consequences of violating these rules but she is leaning towards moving it up." [emphasis is FHQ's]

Again, gentle public reminders are just that. It is what is happening behind closed doors between representatives of the states and the national party that is consequential -- not to mention difficult to follow -- now. What we do know is that these states want a place at the table with other early states. However, we don't know how compressed with other states they are willing to be nor how much influence they are after. The former very definitely affects the latter. And actors at the state level are wising up to that reality. There is a reason that some states opted to move back and hold delegate selection events in some cases concurrently with neighboring states: It potentially maximizes the attention a state receives from the candidates/media and the impact that state has. Compared to inching up to the very front of the calendar with a host of other states on Super Tuesday, it does anyway.

Regardless, we are in a behind closed doors period of negotiations that will play out throughout August and September before a final calendar is likely settled during October some time.

NOTE: One additional note of correction to that FOX News item linked to above. It is a good rundown of things with some helpful comments from the states and the RNC. However, the last paragraph is factually incorrect. Arizona governor, Jan Brewer, has to make a decision on a primary date at least 150 days in advance of the primary for the benefit of elections officials in the state, not the RNC. The RNC rules require states to inform the party of when they will hold primaries or caucuses on or before October 1. There is no 150 day buffer required by the RNC.

Recent Posts:

Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (7/30/11)

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Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

[Click to Enlarge]

With little fanfare,¹ Delaware governor, Jack Markell (D), quietly signed SB 89 into law on Wednesday, July 27. The legislation, nearly unanimously supported in both chambers of the state legislature, calls for moving the presidential primary in the First state from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. In that slot Delaware will have a presidential primary that coincides with presidential primaries in neighboring New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. That regional primary should comprise the largest cache of delegates between the diminished Super Tuesday on March 6 and the first Tuesday in June when California (and likely New Jersey) hold presidential primaries concurrently with delegate selection events in Montana, New Mexico and North and South Dakota.

The move now leaves only New Jersey -- a Chris Christie signature away from moving itself -- and Missouri as the only states remaining from the 2008 Super Tuesday date. [Minnesota is an exception to that even though the Republican caucuses there are scheduled for the same date as last time. The Minnesota caucuses were scheduled for the first Tuesday in March before the state law that was changed 2008. Following passage of that law, the parties had the option of collectively deciding on a common date. Having not exercised that option by March 1 of this year, the caucuses were automatically scheduled for the first Tuesday in February. Minnesota Democrats have since opted for a March 6 date for their caucus meetings.]

You can find an update of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar here.

--

¹ FHQ is reminded of this.

Recent Posts:

2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (7/30/11)

California Presidential Primary to June 5

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

No, there is no known date yet.

However, and regrettably, FHQ omitted the Maine Republican caucuses from our primer on when the last few undecided states set dates for their 2012 presidential delegate allocation.¹ Instead of adding it quietly to the primer, we will give Maine its own spot and also add it to the primer.

Maine: Like many of the other Republican caucus states, the date of the Maine GOP caucus meetings is to be determined. Also like many other Republican caucus states, it is informative to look at the state party rules for some indication of the procedure by which the date of the municipal caucuses are set. According to the 2010 Rules -- those governing the 2012 Maine Republican convention -- the party has to, based on state law, hold a state convention between March 1 and August 1. Beyond that guideline outside of the state party's control, Rule 7 of the Maine Republican Party's rules further describes the guidelines imposed on the party's State Committee -- the entity charged with setting the municipal caucuses date(s). Rule 7 states that municipal caucuses will be held every two years according to state law and "upon [the] call of the Chairman of the Republican State Committee". In addition, Rule 7b encourages municipalities "to conduct their caucuses by March 1 or a single date if so specified by the State Committee". That gives us some idea of a window of time in which the Maine GOP may hold caucuses. If 2008 is a precedent -- and there is not necessarily a reason to believe it is -- the Maine Republican Party will seek to hold Sunday caucuses. In 2008, that was on the Sunday immediately prior to Super Tuesday. The Sunday just prior to the earliest date states are allowed by the national parties in 2012 -- a date FHQ will reluctantly call Super Tuesday -- is March 4. That obviously falls after the rules-encouraged pre-March 1 guideline. The Sunday prior to that is February 26. The Maine Republican caucuses are likely to fall into a window that begins with Sunday, February 26 and ends on, coincidentally enough, Sunday, March 11, the date on which the Maine Democratic Party caucuses are scheduled and the Sunday immediately following Super Tuesday.

Best guess on timeframe for a decision: According to the Maine Republican Party rules, the State Committee meets monthly. The party will, therefore, have a couple of opportunities -- in August and September -- to decide on a date prior to the RNC's October 1 deadline by which dates are supposed to be set.

Threat level: Low. Maine was quietly non-compliant in 2008 and if the Republican Party chooses to repeat similar scheduling of their caucuses in 2012, will likely see a similar level of attention (mainly because if the contest immediately precedes Super Tuesday, candidates will be focused elsewhere).

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¹ At the last minute, mid-draft of the primer, I realized that I needed to include Minnesota and in the process -- I was writing alphabetically by state -- left Maine out.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (7/30/11)

California Presidential Primary to June 5

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Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (7/30/11)

The move in California of the presidential primary to June from February forces another update of the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

NOTE: While Massachusetts, North Carolina and Oregon remain as states shaded with two colors on the map, there is no indication that any of those pieces of legislation will pass even one chamber. All are stuck in committee. North Carolina and Oregon have adjourned for 2011 and only have a handful of post-adjournment legislative days in which to act. It is technically possible, but not likely that the legislatures in either state act on the bills. In Massachusetts, again, it does not appear as if there will be any further movement in the year-round session to move the primary, but it is still possible. As it stands, though, it is highly likely that Massachusetts remains in March and North Carolina and Oregon both stick with their May primary dates.

The only states where legislation is active and likely to pass and be signed into law are Michigan, Missouri and Wisconsin. The remaining states that are unknowns are either Republican caucus states or states where the date decision-maker resides outside of the state legislature.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

An additional note on WHY ON EARTH Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are placed in December.

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Connecticut

Delaware (bills: Senate)

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota Republican caucuses (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Idaho Republican caucuses (+70) (moved: 7/16/11)

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Minnesota Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/17/11)

Ohio

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)

Saturday, March 24:

Louisiana (-42) (bills: House) (moved: 6/29/11)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut (-77) (bills: House) (moved: 7/8/11)

New York (-77) (bills: Assembly/Senate) (moved: 7/13/11)

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island (-49) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 7/1/11)

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

Ohio (-63) (bills: House) (moved: 7/5/11)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California (-119) (bills: Assembly) (moved: 7/29/11)

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁵ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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