The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/6/11)

The addition of the Maine Democratic caucuses requires another update of the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House 1, 2)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

South Dakota

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.

⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.

⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.

⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

Recent Posts:

Bill to Cancel Presidential Primary Passes Washington State Senate

Washington State House Bill Canceling 2012 Primary Passes Committee

DC Council Passes Bill to Move Primaries to April

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Bill to Cancel Presidential Primary Passes Washington State Senate

On April 6, the Washington state Senate passed a bill canceling the Evergreen state's presidential primary for 2012. SB 5119 passed by a vote of 34-15 before the full Senate. Originally, the bill was introduced at the request of the Democratic governor, Christine Gregoire, and Republican secretary of state, Sam Reed, but has seen mainly Democratic support throughout its time in the Senate. That was true of the final vote as well. 26 Democrats and 8 Republicans made up the ayes while the remaining 14 Republicans and one Democrat voted in the minority.

The bill if enacted would only temporarily cancel the presidential primary. Provisions within the legislation would cause the law to expire on January 1, 2013. A Republican-sponsored amendment to tie the use of the primary beyond 2012 to the parties utilizing as a means of allocating at least half of their delegates was not adopted.

The House version of the bill (HB 1324) was passed out of committee earlier in the day.

Recent Posts:

Washington State House Bill Canceling 2012 Primary Passes Committee

DC Council Passes Bill to Move Primaries to April

National Democrats Urging States to Move Primaries Back?

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Washington State House Bill Canceling 2012 Primary Passes Committee

After losing momentum, at least in terms of legislative action, in recent weeks the two bills to cancel the 2012 presidential primary in Washington state have picked up steam in the last few weeks. The House version, HB 1324, was passed by the State Government and Tribal Affairs Committee by a vote of 9-2 earlier today. On the Senate side, SB 5119 was passed by the Senate Ways and Means Committee during the last week in March and has since been referred to the Rules Committee there.

Earlier, it had appeared that both bills had fallen victim to the cross-over deadline for bills to have been considered and sent over to the other chamber. However, because both bills deal with fiscal matters -- a potential savings of over $10 million is on the line if these bills are passed and enacted -- those deadlines were not applicable.

This is another instance of a unified Democratically-controlled state government making a decision on primary timing that could have implications similar to those discussed in FHQ's post on Massachusetts earlier today. As was the case in Maryland, these bills were both introduced at the request of the governor.

The Washington state legislature adjourns later this month (April 24).

Recent Posts:

DC Council Passes Bill to Move Primaries to April

National Democrats Urging States to Move Primaries Back?

Maine Democrats Propose March 11 Caucuses for 2012

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DC Council Passes Bill to Move Primaries to April

The Washington DC City Council on Tuesday passed B19-90, a bill to move the presidential and local primaries to the first Tuesday in April. The presidential primary would shift from the second Tuesday in February and the local primaries would move up to April from September. The former brings the District in line with the national parties' rules on the timing of the presidential primary there while the latter move is in accordance with the federal mandate handed down in the MOVE act.

If signed by the mayor, this legislation would align DC with the Maryland presidential primary. Interestingly, both bills passed -- council or legislature -- a year to the day before the date on which the bills propose the primaries in each be held: April 3.

Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for passing this information along.

Recent Posts:

National Democrats Urging States to Move Primaries Back?

Maine Democrats Propose March 11 Caucuses for 2012

"No new ground was broken" in RNC/FL Legislature Meeting over Presidential Primary

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National Democrats Urging States to Move Primaries Back?

Frank Phillips at the Boston Globe has an interesting story up this morning about the reaction of Massachusetts leaders to DNC suggestions to move the Bay state's presidential primary back to April or later. This isn't a new idea. Budgetary constraints and the effect that may have on the ability of the state to hold a presidential primary in 2012 have already been raised and a bill to move the presidential primary to June to coincide with primaries for state offices has been proposed as well. No, the new twist to all of this is that national Democrats are thinking of this primary movement strategically -- in terms of the outcome of the Republican nomination race. Hypothetically, if more Democratic states hold later contests, that increases the likelihood of the emergence of a more conservative nominee; one against whom the president would fare better.

The expectation is that Democrats would make these efforts in states that are safely blue in a general election and where Democrats hold unified control of the state government (state legislature and governor). Those are the conditions under which national Democrats would have the most success in making a change. Beyond that, the expectation from the DNC's perspective is that Republicans in those states are far more moderate than in other more moderate or conservative states.

First of all, the places where there have been serious efforts to move presidential primaries back further than the earliest allowed March 6 date have primarily been in unified Democratic-contolled states. [Have a look at the second map in this post FHQ wrote on the implications of the 2010 midterm elections.] California's legislature is seeking to move back to June, Hawaii Democrats have proposed an April caucus date, Maryland is on the verge of moving back to April and DC and Delaware may follow suit, and the talk in this Globe article is of a regional primary with Massachusetts and Connecticut involved. Though they were not mentioned there, Vermont is under unified Democratic control and Maine Democrats could also see some pressure from the party to hold later caucuses (Of course, Maine Democrats have just posted a delegate selection plan that calls for a March 11, 2011 caucus. But that could be changed.). Yes, Alabama has a proposal to move to June, but that has since seen a counter proposal for a March date. Missouri, too, has proposed moving back to June, but that bill has taken a back seat to the February and March proposals that have passed at least one chamber of the legislature thus far. We do see this happening in more moderate to Republican states, but the proposals have typically been on the backburner or have received a lukewarm reception among state legislators.

The bigger question is if this national move would even have the desired effect. Let's not forget that Obama did quite well in a series of states (Republican caucus states in particular) the Clinton campaign was quick to point out in 2008 that Democrats would not win in the general election. That was true yet Obama emerged anyway. Just because a state is reliably blue does not mean that its Republican electorate is moderate. The Obama example seems to point to a more "extreme"/less establishment primary or caucus electorate in those states. If this is something the DNC is actually pushing, it seems to indicate that the Obama campaign does not think Mike Huckabee, someone who would potentially do well in the states that would be left early and who polls well head-to-head with Obama, is running for the Republican nomination. It also seems to indicate that they perceive some threat from the possibility of a more moderate Republican nominee (no surprise). But it looks like, at least initially, that they are getting some push back from some states due to local elections norms and procedures.

Recent Posts:

Maine Democrats Propose March 11 Caucuses for 2012

"No new ground was broken" in RNC/FL Legislature Meeting over Presidential Primary

The 2012 Candidates: Obama's In

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Maine Democrats Propose March 11 Caucuses for 2012

The Maine Democratic Party on Tuesday released its 2012 draft delegate selection plan. The plan is posted for a thirty day comment period before being voted upon by the party and submitted to the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee for approval. The municipal caucuses on Sunday, March 11 will serve as the first determining step in the delegate allocation process; one that culminate with the state convention during the first weekend in June.

If that date is finalized and approved, it would place the Pine Tree state Democrats' caucuses the weekend after what would be Super Tuesday, assuming the national parties get their way and all states comply with the delegate selection rules regarding timing. That weekend is currently open, though the Louisiana Republican Party State Central Committee has already urged the legislature in the Pelican state to shift the Louisiana primary to the Saturday before the Sunday on which Maine Democrats are proposing to hold their caucuses.

See full 2012 presidential primary calendar here.

Recent Posts:

"No new ground was broken" in RNC/FL Legislature Meeting over Presidential Primary

The 2012 Candidates: Obama's In

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/5/11)

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"No new ground was broken" in RNC/FL Legislature Meeting over Presidential Primary

RNC Chief of Staff Jeff Larson met with staff members of Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos and Speaker of the House Dean Cannon on Tuesday and could not come away with an end to the impasse over the Florida presidential primary timing issue. As Cannon spokeswoman Katie Betta said (via William March at the Tampa Tribune):

"No new ground was broken today. No decisions were made. It was a good conversation and we will keep the lines of communication open."

Florida Republicans have seemed and do seem firm in their assertion of Florida's position in the primary race for the Republican nomination and the general election as well. And they are seemingly willing to leverage that swing state status to secure a position among the earliest primary states (...whether South Carolina, Iowa or other states like it or not). The RNC has its hands tied on this one. There is little that can be done if Florida Republicans are willing to take the penalties for holding a primary at a time out of compliance with national party rules. [Actually Florida Republicans are daring the national party to sanction the state. The argument from Florida has been that that will only hurt Republican efforts to energize base voters in and ultimately win Florida in the general election.] The key for the RNC, as I mentioned last week, will be to either shift Florida into a late February position ahead of the earliest allowed date for non-exempt states (March 6) but after the exempt states or to ensure that the exempt states are not penalized if they have to change the dates of their delegate selection events because of the Florida legislature's inaction. That was what South Carolina was really complaining about a week ago.

This whole negotiation is set against the backdrop of the Florida legislative session which adjourns next month.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Candidates: Obama's In

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/5/11)

Maryland House Bill to Move Presidential Primary to April Unanimously Passes Senate

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The 2012 Candidates: Obama's In

Well, it was bound to happen at some point.

Add President Obama to the list of candidates vying for the White House in 2012. And though he may have to do it again, Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) once again reaffirmed his plans not to seek the Republican nomination the week before last. Obama is now officially in -- the only Democrat -- while no Republicans have officially jumped beyond the exploratory committee level.

Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint (3/24/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/5/11)

Maryland House Bill to Move Presidential Primary to April Unanimously Passes Senate

Alaska Dems to Start 2012 Caucus Process on April 15

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/5/11)

With the Alaska Democratic Party settling in on a date for its 2012 caucuses in its draft delegate selection plan, an update of the 2012 presidential primary calendar is necessary.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House 1, 2)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

South Dakota

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

Recent Posts:

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