The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

Recently, I posted links to Thomas Holbrook's convention bounce predictions and wrap up and now he is out with a look at debate effects. The conclusion? Individual debate effects are minimal, but the cumulative effect of the entire series of debates is where a difference can be made.

And the nightmare? Larry Sabato has an item up on the BBC discussing the possibility of an electoral college tie. [Yeah, Nancy Pelosi was surprised too. I couldn't not include that picture.] As far-fetched as the chance of a tie may seem, it as been increasing in likelihood as McCain has become more competitive in some state polls. Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are all narrowing currently and all are leaning toward Obama. As we've seen in the recent maps it won't take much to bring this about. If Obama wins all the current blue states but loses Colorado New Hampshire, then a 269-269 tie is the outcome. This was also made clear in the map that resulted from Scott's analysis of the Pollster averages. If Obama wins the blue states and New Mexico while McCain takes the red states and the remaining five toss ups, again a 269-269 tie is the result.

Fine, we can move states around to get the outcome we want -- a tie -- but what happens in case of a tie? Well, the tie doesn't go to the incumbent party. [And since, according to Sabato, 90% of Americans don't know about this contingency plan, Democrats not in the know just breathed a huge sigh of relief.] The decision on the presidency goes to the House for a vote by each state delegation (not individual members) and the VP choice goes to the Senate.

For more on how that may play out, check out FiveThirtyEight's look at the possibilites from back in May. The circumstances may have changed since then, but it is an excellent exercise in how this situation would work.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College from a Different Angle

About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The other day one of FHQ's loyal readers, SarahLawrenceScott, proposed an alternate way of looking at the presidential race and for mapping the trends to the electoral college. State-by-state trial-heat polls are still the data of choice, but what Scott has done is to set the lines of demarcation between different states based on the 50% threshold in Pollster's averages in the time since McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee following the March 4 contests.

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in Pollster's average in a state any reputable state poll?

If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott puts it:

"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."

He adds:

"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

So where do each of the states fall? Well, Scott provided us with a list, but that wasn't good enough for me. I like to see these things; preferably on a map. [As an aside, if Chad Johnson can legally change his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, then perhaps I should consider a new moniker myself. Josh Mapmaker, perhaps. Ooh, or the hyphenated version, Josh Map-Maker. But I digress...] Here's how the map looks:

[Click Map to Enlarge]

All of the toss up states (the states in white) have been or are toss up states by FHQ's estimate. The exception is West Virginia, where a large swath of undecideds continues to cloud the picture in the Mountain state. As Scott admits, though there is a caveat to the West Virginia result:

"It's true McCain broke 50 in late February, which is just before my cut-off, so it could easily be called a McCain lean. But still, I agree with Josh that Obama should have put some more resources there. Maybe it's not too late."

Hey, if you're the Obama campaign, sending in Bill and/or Hillary Clinton should be a top priority, strategically speaking. Clinton was the last Democrat to carry the state. Is it too late in West Virginia? I don't know, but any Obama effort there is akin to the efforts being made by the GOP to catch up in areas where they are lagging in the ground game. Improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

But how about the two distinctions Scott makes within the toss up category?

"Nevada and West Virginia fall in the first category [neither McCain nor Obama has reached 50% in individual polls]; Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire in the second [the 50% line was crossed by both candidates in individual polls but not in the Pollster average]. The first two may be toss-ups because they are underpolled. That second group of four are true battlegrounds--at some point, by some methodology, a poll suggested that each candidate had a victory in hand, regardless of how undecideds break. But Obama hasn't done that in Ohio since June, and McCain hasn't done that in New Mexico or New Hampshire since April. That would suggest that they have the potential to go to either candidate if circumstances changed, but if the election were held today, Ohio would be a McCain lean while New Mexico and New Hampshire would be Obama leans.

"That leaves Virginia. Virginia has had each candidate break 50 in the last week, and at least twice since the conventions. It has also had each candidate break 50 in polls from the same pollster: SurveyUSA. Under this way of looking at things, that makes Virginia ground zero, the one true, get-out-the-vote type neutral battleground. In 2000, it was Florida; in 2004, Ohio; this time, it's Virginia, as improbable as that would have sounded a year ago."

Finally, it is...

"[a]lso notable that Colorado is an Obama lean but New Mexico is a toss-up. Obama winning Colorado and losing New Mexico is not a popular parlay, but it's not out of the question.

"Those are the most notable surprises, although there are a few others that caught my eye (Maine and North Dakota are safe, New Jersey, Arkansas, and Washington not entirely so."

Of course, with the polling out over and since the weekend, Obama is right up against the 50% mark in New Mexico. And if Obama wins the blue states on the map above and adds New Mexico, that gets him to 269 electoral votes. The Illinois senator would be assured of at least a tie and would have to pick up any one of the remaining five white states to secure a victory. Conversely, McCain would have to sweep the toss up states on that map just to get to 274 electoral votes. And that is a tall order. Suddenly, McCain partisans are asking for the more palatable scenarios described on FHQ's standard map and Electoral College Spectrum.


Let me add a special note of thanks to Scott for a solid contribution to our efforts here at FHQ. This is a nice addition to our understanding of the direction of this campaign.


Recent Posts:
About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

Today's Agenda

About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

As I alluded to a week ago, I wanted to examine the post-convention bounce McCain enjoyed without the seemingly over-inflated numbers from Zogby's internet polling outfit. Why? Well again, I did this same thing with the post-clinch bounce Obama had throughout June. The first wave of Zogby state polling was seemingly overly supportive of Obama and really skewed the bounce the Illinois senator got in his favor. The underlying message is that the polling that Zogby has been doing through voluntary online surveys seems to drift with the political winds. That may not be a fair characterization since the first wave involved 34 states total, while the second and third waves have been pared down to ten or so battleground states. It may not be fair, but I'll stick with that description for the time being.

Well, what were the results (...of these now week and half old polls)?

Zogby Interactive -- Wave Three (Sept. 9-12)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Zogby Interactive	+2
Florida	Zogby Interactive	+10.3
Michigan	Zogby Interactive	+5.7
Missouri	Zogby Interactive	+6.1
Nevada	Zogby Interactive	+7.6
New Hampshire	Zogby Interactive	+6.3
New Mexico	Zogby Interactive	+1.5
North Carolina	Zogby Interactive	+1.5
Ohio	Zogby Interactive	+5.9
Pennsylvania	Zogby Interactive	+4.8
Virginia	Zogby Interactive	+6.5

There is a lot of red on that list and surprisingly that red stretches into a trio of states, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, that are currently among the group of Obama toss ups. North Carolina, once again, has a result contrary to what has been witnessed throughout other polling recently. That has been the mark of Zogby's efforts in the state across the three iterations of surveys, though. Finally, Michigan of all states is apparently immune to the red drift in many of these states, turning in a solidly blue 5.7 point margin for Obama.

That's all well and good, but what effect did these poll have on the electoral college map? Nothing really. Not one of these states changed categories and that can be attributed largely to the number of polls that have been done in all these toss up states and New Mexico over the entire campaign. With an increasing amount of polling activity in the most competitive states, outliers are absorbed into the backend of the weighted average with little, or in this case no, effect. But while the electoral college was left unchanged, the assessment of the bounce the McCain-Palin ticket got out of the GOP convention did not. The picture without these polls from Zogby was a bit mixed. McCain gained, especially in traditionally Republian states that had been closer than history would indicate prior to the convention. However, his momentum in FHQ's toss up states was less pronounced. The Arizona senator had the averages moving in his direction in seven of the 11 toss up state, but Obama still had New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Indiana moving toward him since the pre-convention baseline was set on August 24.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But New Hampshire and Pennsylvania were among the Zogby polls that showed a McCain lead. They were and both those polls had the effect of shifting the averages in the Arizona senator's direction. In Nevada and Ohio the bounces increased as well, moving from the "barely moved" range into the middle category of movement -- a one to two point change in the average over the convention period and its aftermath. All was not lost for Obama, however. Based on the strength of Zogby Michigan poll, the trend in the Wolverine state began to favor the Illinois senator. And the surprising Obama lead in North Carolina helped mute the effect McCain got out of his convention in North Carolina.

Given that we see such volatile changes based on a series of polls that may not be all that representative, why include them at all? A valid question. One that I'll answer with another question: What happens to the weighted averages when we back out all three waves of Zogby polling? If the effect is minimal, no harm, no foul, right? But if there is a decided shift toward one of the candidates, then the idea of the polls' inclusion may need to be revisited. Since the first two waves were seen as favorable to Obama, it could be hypothesized that McCain would stand to benefit from those polls being omitted.

Here is the electoral map from today:

[Click Map to Enlarge]

And here is how the map would look tomorrow if the Zogby polling were dropped from the averages (Huh? Tomorrow? How does that square with the map for today? This gives you a sneak peek for tomorrow's update. It includes the polling released today, all 18 polls from 15 states.):

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Yeah, that's it. North Carolina is the only state that changes categories based on the three waves of Zogby polling being dropped. But as we have seen, changing the color on one state on a map doesn't really provide us with the full picture.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	MA-12 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	SC-8 (152)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	MN-10 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	OR-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
NY-31 (73)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
CA-55 (128)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	WY-3 (19)
MD-10 (138)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	MS-6 (89)	OK-7 (16)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	LA-9 (83)	ID-4 (9)
DE-3 (145)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (175)	AZ-10 (74)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

As we look at how the Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List would look with today's polls included, but the Zogby polls omitted, what we see is that there are not that many changes, but what changes there are, are almost wholly within Obama's coalition of states. Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts all saw decreases in their respective averages. Not enough, to warrant any worry from the Democrats or joy from Republicans, but noticeable changes for states that have remained largely unchanged over the summer. The biggest shake up is among the Obama lean states. Of those, only Washington kept its same position, close to being a strong Obama state. Iowa came out stronger without the Zogby polls in the equation, jumping New Jersey, Oregon and Minnesota. Without the June Zogby poll, Minnesota also inches even closer toward being competitive as measured by FHQ's weighted average.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Massachusetts	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

And the Watch List? Virginia will be back on the list tomorrow -- with the Zogby polling included -- but without the Zogby date, the Old Dominion would be back off the list. Ohio is very close to sliding off the list without those polls as well. Georgia will come off the list tomorrow with or without these polls and South Carolina is slightly safer for McCain with that 1 point Obama lead in their June poll dropped from consideration. Finally, Massachusetts reenters the list as well after a prolonged absence. Well, the Bay state would be back on if the Zogby poll there weren't propping the state's average up to some degree.

In the end, the biggest surprise was that South Carolina didn't shift into safer McCain territory. North Carolina's shift was expected, but even that move was muted. The lesson here is that, yeah, Zogby adds some noise, but the overall effect is not that severe. Should we keep them, should we drop them? That, my friends, is certainly up for discussion.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

Today's Agenda

The Electoral College Map (9/21/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

Sunday's polls offered a mixed bag of results for both candidates. Of the nine polls from 7 states, the pair of surveys out of Florida continued to show a race drawing closer, while following the tie in the Big Ten poll of Iowa, the two polls in the Hawkeye state show the exact opposite. That outlier, then, appears to be just that. An anomaly. Other than those two, both Ohio and Virginia remain well within the margin of error -- despite the wider spread in the University of Cinncinati survey of Ohio -- and the formerly large Obama gap in Minnesota continues to contract. But the race across all the Rust Belt and north midwestern states is heading in much the same direction.

New Polls (Sept. 21)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Univ. South Alabama	+27
California	ARG	+14
Florida	Miami Herald/St. Pete Times	+2
Florida	Research 2000	+1
Iowa	ARG	+14
Iowa	Research 2000	+7
Minnesota	ARG	+1
Ohio	University of Cinncinati	+6
Virginia	ARG	+2

But Minnesota still has not budged too terribly much on the map or on the Electoral College Spectrum. In fact, the map is unchanged since yesterday's South Carolina shift. Obama maintains his eight electoral vote edge over McCain due in large part to the fact that the five state block from Colorado through Virginia is stationary through the addition of these nine polls. If there is any change to the electoral vote tally, it will be triggered most likely by the movement of one of those five states. And only Nevada and Ohio are currently on the Watch List below.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Though Minnesota does not shift again, despite yet another close poll, it is within a fraction of a point of jumping Oregon and closer to a toss up distinction. But the North Star state isn't there yet. Of the five polls released since the beginning of September in Minnesota, all have been within three points with the exception of the CNN poll that was conducted in the time between the two conventions. So while the FHQ average is not yet yielding a result in line with this recent trend, it has shifted by almost two points. Four polls, after all, is just more than one-sixth of the number of surveys conducted in the state. We have a trend and the average is following that trend, but cautiously.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Finally, the Watch List from yesterday remains intact. These ten states plus the McCain lean states are still the ones to keep our eyes on. Are those medium red states moving toward competitiveness or toward McCain? And will and other states -- such as New Mexico or Wisconsin -- shift to toss ups?

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Since we have a status quo post here, let me take an opportunity to pose a question to our readers in the hopes of jumpstarting a discussion. I have had several discussions lately about the changing definition of what a toss up state is. In other words, is a state that was a toss up at five points in June or July, still a toss up with the same five point margin today? So the definition of a toss up is something of a moving target, shrinking as the campaign draws toward its culminating point on election day. Now that the system has calmed down to some degree after the convention bounces, I think it may be the best time to move that line, especially with the next series of shocks set to commence on Friday with the first debate. What do you think?

Let's look at a couple of examples, so those wishing to comment can make as informed a decision as possible.

If the line is moved from a five point margin to a four point margin...
...McCain gains just Missouri and North Carolina.
...Obama's list of states holds steady.
...the total number of toss up states drops from 12 to 10.

If the line between lean and toss up is downgraded to the 3 point mark...
...McCain shifts Florida and Montana into his lean category.
...Obama adds Michigan as a lean state.
...the total number of toss up states decreases from 12 to seven.

The likelihood of the five states in question switching sides is diminishing, but I don't know whether the window is completely shut either. The question, then, is is this a good time/the best time to make this move with the debates coming up? It is a nice line of demarcation in the events on the ground, but it may not offer the best time for such a transition. Thoughts?

I should add that I'm inclined to go ahead and move the line down to three and leave it there for the duration of the race. If any of these states are going to be toss ups they'll likely move in that direction anyway.


Recent Posts:
Today's Agenda

The Electoral College Map (9/21/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/08)

Today's Agenda

Alright folks, I'm off to a late start to my blogging day today. However, I've got a few things I'd like to get out today. I'll have an electoral college update up shortly, one that will finally incorporate those Zogby numbers from last weekend.

More to the point on that Zogby data, I'll have a revised look at the convention bounce with that date included. I'll also take that opportunity to examine the overall utility of that series of three polling waves from the firm. If the effect is minimal, I'll retain them, but if the averages are significantly skewed with them included (vs. having omitted them), I may consider dropping them. Hold on, now that McCain may be advantaged by these polls, FHQ is considering removing them from the equation. Maybe, but given the increase in polling frequency, such potential outliers could quickly be normalized with the averaging formula. So it is possible, but not necessarily probable that the Zogby data will be dropped. Keep in mind that the first two waves favored Obama. Dropping them from the average would actually cause, in some cases, the average margins to narrow.

Finally, Scott had a really nice look at the state of the race from a bit of a different angle yesterday. I'd like to give that examination its proper due; more than just something that gets lost in the comments.

There are few other things that I may also get to today, but they may be pushed to tomorrow.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/21/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/08)

There's a lot of blue out there today. Much of that has to do with the fact that the group of states represented in the polling out on Saturday was comprised mostly of blue states. States like Connecticut and Maryland continue to solidly support Illinois senator in the polls. Also, we see both Illinois and Maine bounce back from tighter polls over the last few days with margins closer to what FHQ's average projects. But it isn't all rosy for Obama. The two polls out of Michigan show a dead heat between McCain and Obama. Michigan has been a toss up state all year long, but it, to some extent, has been immunedto some of the fluctuations that have typified other state surveys in this post-convention period. Michigan is one of the few blue toss ups that hasn't shown at least one poll favoring McCain during that time.

New Polls (Sept. 20)
State	Poll	Margin
Connecticut	ARG	+15
Idaho	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+29
Illinois	Research 2000	+20
Illinois	Rasmussen	+16
Maryland	ARG	+15
Maine	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+14
Michigan	ARG	+2
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	+1
Missouri	Research 2000	+4
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	0
South Carolina	Rasmussen	+6
Tennessee	ARG	+23

And the red states? Well, the polls from Idaho, Missouri and Tennessee are right around where we would expect them to be. Like Michigan, Misssouri is a red toss up state that has been resilient to the volatility we've witnessed lately. In the Carolina's, however, there is a lot of action. Above, we discussed states bouncing back from seemingly anomalous polling results. Both North and South Carolina fit well in that discussion. North Carolina has been all over the place in September; from a 20 point McCain advantage immediately following the GOP convention to a tie in the PPP poll released just yesterday. The Tar Heel state is close to being out of reach for Obama, but it is closer to being one of the competitive states than it is a safe McCain state at this point. Is a tie accurate? No, but it is a better indication of the state of play in the Old North state than that bounce-inflated 20 point margin.

Changes (Sept. 20)
State	Before	After
South Carolina	Strong McCain	McCain lean

Just south of North Carolina, the six point margin in yesterday's Rasmussen poll of the Palmetto state is likely below where South Carolina will end up in November, but it is closer to right than the 22 point range in Friday's ARG poll. Again, like Alaska, a lack of overall polling in South Carolina makes the average -- even a weighted average -- more vulnerable to outliers than traditional swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, each of which have over 40 polls each during this cycle. The outcome? South Carolina shifts back to a McCain lean state. Will it stay there? My guess is that it won't (Yeah, a big blow to some South Carolina Democrats I know.). South Carolina just feels like one of those 10-12 point margin states for McCain. FHQ typically steers well clear of gut feelings, but this is one I feel fairly confident about. [Keep in mind that this election is one that is tailor made for making such predictions look stupid in a heartbeat. Those same SC Democrats I mentioned above won't let me hear the end of it if I'm wrong, I'm sure.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So South Carolina, after looking like it was moving with the recent trend line away from Republican "lean" status, appears as if it may be crowding in on West Virginia's place as the "contrary state" of the moment. Caution alert: we'll need more polling in South Carolina to back that assertion up. Just based on my gut feeling above, we would be expected to see South Carolina move closer to McCain than away from him at this point.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

With those 8 electoral votes shifting back into the middle category on the Republican side, the total grows to 19 electoral votes; hardly better than the 11 before hand. That doesn't give FHQ much reason to alter its thinking about this race at the moment. There are three very clear distinctions among the blue states, but only two on the Republican side. Though that is being reiterated again today, it doesn't change that fact that the bottom line remains the same. Obama continues to maintain a slight advantage in the electoral college.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

South Carolina may be physically off the Watch List now for immediately changing categories, but it remains a state to watch simply because of where it is taking up space: the shrinking McCain lean category. But with South Carolina off, the list is down to just ten states and only half of those involve states that could move into or away from toss up status. The gaps in the other states are too great at this point for either candidate to make it interesting. So though Georgia and Texas are on the line close to switching to lean states, that really wouldn't help Obama much. Losing by 7 points in November is the same as losing by 20 or 40 points. [Alright electoral college haters, that's your cue.] With just more than six weeks left, those margins are too wide to make any difference.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/20/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/08)

There was a drop in the number of state polls released yesterday compared to the last couple of days, but there was no lack of competitive states surveyed to enhance our understanding of what is happening in each. The gap seems to have been bridged in Indiana. The last two days have seen a bevy of polls emerge from the Hoosier state, but the picture really hasn't changed. The race there is still close, but continues to favor McCain. If we look at the 3-4 point range as being within the margin of error then Indiana falls in that range. It isn't a close as the trio of Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, but Indiana isn't that far off either. For a state that has been as reliably Republican as any, the continued competitiveness remains a remarkable storyline in a race that has no lack of them.

New Polls (Sept. 19)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+17
Indiana	ARG	+3
Indiana	Rasmussen	+2
Iowa	Survey USA	+11
Kentucky	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+18
Maine	Rasmussen	+4
Michigan	Marist	+9
North Carolina	Elon	+6
North Dakota	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+13
North Dakota	ARG	+9
Ohio	Marist	+2
Oklahoma	ARG	+27
Pennsylvania	Marist	+5
Washington	ARG	+6

A day after the Big Ten surveys showed a tie in Iowa, Survey USA rebuts with a poll more in line with the numbers that have emerged from the Hawkeye state since the beginning of September. Among some of the other recent blue states, Maine suddenly looks tight. The standard line is that we'll have to wait and see if this one is an outlier or the beginning of a trend. However, we can say this: A month after Rasmussen charted the race in Maine as a 22 point lead for Obama, the firm had the Illinois senator up by just 8 in July. In August, the number was back up to 14 and September may or may not be another odd numbered month dip in the Pine Tree state. Similarly, the margins in Washington have decreased as well. However, there is a bit more information to back the trend up in this case. But to consider the Evergreen state as anything other than an Obama lean at this point is a stretch. In fact, the six point edge Obama has in the ARG poll would seem to indicate that that is very much in line with where FHQ has the race pegged at the moment.

Among the red states, North Dakota inches even further into McCain territory with a pair of solid poll results for the Arizona senator. The averages have corrected themselves over time, but I'm starting to look at Montana and North Dakota in the same way that I looked on Alabama and Mississippi earlier in the summer. Neighbors, Mississippi and Alabama hold a fair amount of overlap demographically and politically. But the polls showed Obama much closer (about ten points) in Mississippi than in Alabama. The margin isn't as wide on the prairie as it was in the South, but it remains something of a mystery to me that North Dakota has seemingly broken from Montana. Now, it could be that the 2 point McCain margin in the ARG poll of Montana the other day will be an outlier when the polls between now and election day are added in, but at the moment Montana doesn't look to be budging from its position among the toss up states, but North Dakota is gradually making its way onto safer ground for McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

[This is an awful lot of talking FHQ. What about the changes? You act like you're stalling.] Despite all the added information the map holds steady today. Obama not only maintains the eight electoral vote advantage he held a day ago, but there also was no shifting of states/electoral votes between categories; a strange occurrence in a post-convention period marked by a distinct uptick in the frequency of polling.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The sad thing is that not even the Electoral College Spectrum changed in any way. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first instance of this ever having occurred. Typically, even paltry polling days shift the Spectrum in some way.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The status quo, however, was not maintained across all of FHQ's various graphics. The Watch List lost North Dakota with the introduction of two new polls pushing the state further into the McCain lean category. We're rapidly approaching a point when the Watch List idea will have to be revisited. At a point that has yet to be determined, we will have to look at switch states primarily. Those shifting from strong to lean just will not be that consequential with time running out in this race. The focus will then shift to those states on the verge of moving into or out of the toss up category. Toss ups will be focus and for the most part already had been the focal point in discussions of the list, but I will likely continue to include the other, "less consequential" moves on the list...silently.

I have a tangential question to pose as well, but I think I will offer that one up some time tomorrow as an open thread or something similar. I have a mixed bag of things that I'd like to throw out there and I'll likely do it then.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/08)

How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)

Another day, another 32 polls added to the mix. We continue to see a solidifying of the race on one level -- in some traditionally Republican states -- and more and more volatility in the swing states. Two of yesterday's highlighted swing states, Colorado and Florida, are back in the spotlight today, but for different reasons. Colorado, after giving McCain a series of slight leads in recent polling, shifted back in Obama's direction yesterday. Yes, the National Journal poll shows the race in a dead heat which is where the race had been trending, but the shift back to Obama is based on the ten point margin in the first Insider Advantage survey of the Centennial state. In Florida, the tightening continues. Sure, the six point McCain lead in the Survey USA poll is above FHQ's average in the Sunshine state, but that is more than outweighed by the pair of ties in the state's other two polls. The effect is that Florida is drawing closer as we head down the stretch in this race.

New Polls (Sept. 18)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Survey USA	+30
Colorado	National Journal	+1
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+10
Connecticut	Rasmussen	+12
Florida	National Journal	0
Florida	ARG	0
Florida	Survey USA	+6
Georgia	Rasmussen	+11
Georgia	Survey USA	+16
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+8
Illinois	Big Ten	+15.9
Indiana	Selzer	+3
Indiana	Big Ten	+3.5
Iowa	Big Ten	0
Michigan	Big Ten	+4
Minnesota	Big Ten	+2.8
Nebraska	ARG	+26
New Hampshire	ARG	+3
New Jersey	Strategic Vision	+4
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+13
New Mexico	National Journal	+7
New Mexico	Survey USA	+8
Ohio	National Journal	+1
Ohio	Big Ten	+0.5
Oregon	Hibbitts/Port. Trib.	+10
Pennsylvania	Big Ten	+0.4
South Carolina	ARG	+22
Virginia	National Journal	+7
Virginia	Insider Advantage	+2
Washington	Strategic Vision	+5
Wisconsin	Big Ten	+0.9

But it isn't all Colorado and Florida. The Big Ten consortium of surveys provides us with a great new source of polling information in a vital area. The Rust Belt has had and continues to have a disproportionate number of swing states compared with other areas of the country. And this series of polls does little to alter that perception. Illinois is the only exception, but the remaining states are all if not within the margin of error, very close to it. That isn't surprising in states like Ohio or Pennsylvania. But these polls do seem to confirm the competitiveness we have witnessed in recent surveys of Minnesota and shows a much tighter race in Iowa than our average would indicate. There have been blips of competitiveness in the Hawkeye state polling throughout this race, but on the whole, it has been firmly planted in the Obama lean category. As is the case when these seeming outliers appear, we will need additional information to confirm that this is, in fact, a trend. [This does speak to some of these rather wide ranges of polling results in some states recently.]

Changes (Sept. 18)
State	Before	After
South Carolina	McCain lean	Strong McCain

Outside of the Rust Belt, though, there are some other areas of note. Further south, both Virginia and South Carolina offer interesting trends as well. In Virginia, a series of mid- to upper single digit leads for McCain over the last week plus have pushed the commonwealth's average far enough toward McCain that there is some breathing room between it and the nearly tied Nevada/Ohio group. Does that mean that McCain is destined to win there? Not necessarily, though, I would expect it to get tighter again in Virginia. South Carolina, on the other hand, is not getting more competitive. In fact, since a couple of close polls in the spring, the competitiveness in the Palmetto state has ebbed quite a bit...especially now with a more than twenty point margin in the latest poll of the state. So another traditionally Republican state slips into a safe position for McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Now that Texas has moved into the strong category for McCain, the group of lean states is shrinking rapidly. And now that South Carolina has drifted into safer territory for McCain, there is a real argument that can be made for a two-tiered Republican group of states: those that are competitive and those that are not. I brought this up yesterday and it still rings true today. None of the remaining three lean states -- Alaska, North Dakota and West Virginia -- seem like they will break for Obama in the end. North Dakota has been intriguing and West Virginia certainly has been of late, but I'm having a hard time imagining either going any way other than for McCain in early November. With South Carolina out of the lean category, though, that leaves just the eleven electoral votes in that middle-ground distinction. Most of those electoral votes have become more intensely pro-McCain and in the process has virtually evened the two strong electoral vote tallies between the two candidates.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

McCain, though, has to defend an awful lot of toss up electoral votes. And yeah, with the national polls and several consequential state polls trending against McCain, he is playing defense now. But it isn't all that bad for the Arizona senator. If, and this is a pretty big if, he can maintain leads in his toss up states, New Hampshire and Colorado are the only other states McCain will have to pick off to win. Of course, with New Hampshire and Colorado switching places on the Electoral College Spectrum, that brings the electoral college tie scenario back to the forefront. If Obama wins the blue state, successfully defends Colorado, but loses New Hampshire, then a 269-269 electoral vote tie will result. Hey, if it is going to happen, it will happen during this election. Everything else pretty much has.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As was mentioned above, South Carolina and Virginia were among the movers and shakers within this group of polls. Virginia slips off the Watch List and South Carolina moves on, but is likely not there for long. Again, as the day closes, these are the states where new polling could be the most consequential. But as I said yesterday, be on the lookout for new polls from the remaining McCain lean states. Alaska should be expected to move permanently into the strong McCain distinction. North Dakota seems to be trending in that direction as well, but West Virginia is moving in the opposite direction. Nonetheless, those three with the list above are the states to watch in the next twenty-four hours.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/18/08)

How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

The First Presidential Election Votes Get Cast Tomorrow