The vote by the Florida House of Representatives last week to back a plan moving the state's 2008 presidential primary to January 29 has provoked a response from the South Carolina Republican Party. In my Florida post late last week, I largely focused on Florida horning in on the national Democratic Party's plan to include South Carolina's primary in the pre-window phase of the presidential primary calendar. The state's Democratic primary is the one scheduled for the 29th; the one with which Florida's would directly conflict. The Republicans follow on a few days later on February 2, the Saturday before the de facto national primary on February 5.
There are a couple of things at play here. One is that South Carolina is one of just a few states who have party-run presidential primaries. What that means is that the state parties are the ones in charge of setting up and financing the election and not the state legislature. This ultimately gives a state like South Carolina more freedom in avoiding legislative wrangling over whether and where to move a presidential primary that may plague other states. If the party feels like the move is in the its best interests and if the benefits of moving outweigh the national party sanctions associated with the potential move, then it is fairly easy to make the move happen.
The other thing is a bit of an oddity. It is that the Republicans are the party discussing a move and not the Democrats. That may be attributable to a South Carolina Democratic Party reluctant to move from the choice position in which the Democratic National Committee allowed them to set up shop for 2008. Now the GOP in South Carolina would certainly see a loss of attention because of Florida's primary before and the "national" primary after, but at least the primary would be the only thing in town on that particular Saturday. And the party's chairman, Katon Dawson, is not just talking about moving according to The State in Columbia, he is talking about a monumental shift to an October 2007 primary to protect the state's nominating status.
There have been straw polls late in the calendar year prior to a presidential election year in the past, but these events never had anything to do with the distribution of convention delegates. This proposed move would certainly alter that. Talk recently has had New Hampshire moving up, forcing candidates to campaign during Christmas, but if the South Carolina GOP follows through on their threat, candidates may be forced to share door time with candy-seeking kids on Halloween.
There is no word out of Concord, but at this rate, New Hampshire may hold their primary next week.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Saturday, March 24, 2007
New York is a Spitzer Signature Away from Joining the Rush to Feb. 5
The AP reports that both the New York Senate and Assembly voted on Wednesday to bump up the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 5. In essence then, once Governor Spitzer signs the bill (a formality according to the article), New York will have moved from the old Super Tuesday (first Tuesday in March) to the new Super Tuesday (the first Tuesday in February) for the 2008 cycle. If Florida's plan to move to January 29 passes muster, the 2008 primary calendar will feature three of the country's four most populous states clustered just one or two weeks after the New Hampshire primary. And Texas has at least discussed moving to the 5th as well bring all four of those states into the first month of the process.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Florida's House Passes Plan to Leapfrog into Pre-Window Period
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel has reported that the Florida House passed a plan to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to January 29, a week ahead of the cycle's Super Tuesday on February 5. This potential move is consequential for a couple of reasons. First, Florida becomes the earliest big state. Secondly though, this proposed date falls outside window of time both parties have set aside for presidential primaries to be held.
The move also interferes with the Democratic primary in South Carolina on the same day. South Carolina was one of the centerpieces of the Democratic Party plan to integrate more African American and Latino voters into the early portion of the nomination process. This integration is motivated by a perceived need to make the early contests more representative of the Democratic electorate as a whole. Along with Nevada, South Carolina moved into the pre-window period usually reserved for Iowa and New Hampshire.
Now, what does any of this have to do with Florida, a state that certainly has its share of both African American and Latino voters? Well, if the proposal makes it through the Senate and is signed by Governor Charlie Crist, then Florida is in violation of Rule 20.C(1) of the Delegate Selection Rules developed by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee. Sadly, the Democratic Party has yet to post these rules anywhere online that I can find. However, several sites make mention of the sanctions for both state delegations and candidates if this rule is violated. Here is the language of the rule from The Green Papers and here is the same language on P2008. So, if Florida were to move to January 29, not only would the state delegation (including alternates) shrink by fifty percent, but candidates campaigning there would stand to lose pledged delegates and delegate votes from that state. On the Republican side, the rules are laid out here. Rule 15 discusses the issue of primary/caucus timing and Rule 16 details the sanctions for violating that rule. Under the GOP provisions, a state delegation would be reduced by fifty percent if the decision by the state was made prior to the party's call to the convention. If a decision to move is made following that call then the delegation would suffer a cut of ninety percent!
Those seem like significant penalties. But the vote in the Florida House featured only one dissenting vote and that would appear to indicate general support for the plan.
The move also interferes with the Democratic primary in South Carolina on the same day. South Carolina was one of the centerpieces of the Democratic Party plan to integrate more African American and Latino voters into the early portion of the nomination process. This integration is motivated by a perceived need to make the early contests more representative of the Democratic electorate as a whole. Along with Nevada, South Carolina moved into the pre-window period usually reserved for Iowa and New Hampshire.
Now, what does any of this have to do with Florida, a state that certainly has its share of both African American and Latino voters? Well, if the proposal makes it through the Senate and is signed by Governor Charlie Crist, then Florida is in violation of Rule 20.C(1) of the Delegate Selection Rules developed by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee. Sadly, the Democratic Party has yet to post these rules anywhere online that I can find. However, several sites make mention of the sanctions for both state delegations and candidates if this rule is violated. Here is the language of the rule from The Green Papers and here is the same language on P2008. So, if Florida were to move to January 29, not only would the state delegation (including alternates) shrink by fifty percent, but candidates campaigning there would stand to lose pledged delegates and delegate votes from that state. On the Republican side, the rules are laid out here. Rule 15 discusses the issue of primary/caucus timing and Rule 16 details the sanctions for violating that rule. Under the GOP provisions, a state delegation would be reduced by fifty percent if the decision by the state was made prior to the party's call to the convention. If a decision to move is made following that call then the delegation would suffer a cut of ninety percent!
Those seem like significant penalties. But the vote in the Florida House featured only one dissenting vote and that would appear to indicate general support for the plan.
Georgia House Passes Plan to Move to Feb. 5
Georgia's House of Representatives acted Tuesday to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 5 according to a Wednesday article in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The National Conference of State Legislatures identifies April 17 as the last day of the legislative session, so the Senate will undoubtedly move on this proposal before then unless the session is extended. And given 154-11 vote in the House, there appears to be enough support for the measure.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Where We Stand
Below is a look at how the 2008 presidential primary/caucus calendar was as of March 20, 2007 according to the National Association of Secretaries of State. The link to NASS .pdf file of the calendar can be found here. This calendar, while not ideal because of only sporadic updates, is a good baseline for comparison as I begin to build a time line of calendar change for the 2008 cycle.
In tracking changes that have already occurred in the primary calendar, there are a couple of other helpful resources. Both thegreenpapers.com and P2008 offer more detailed approaches to the calendar than does the NASS. All three sites will be in the links area as I continue to add to the blog.
In tracking changes that have already occurred in the primary calendar, there are a couple of other helpful resources. Both thegreenpapers.com and P2008 offer more detailed approaches to the calendar than does the NASS. All three sites will be in the links area as I continue to add to the blog.
Calendar of 2008 State Primaries/Caucuses
Last updated: March 20, 2007
2008 Presidential Nominating Calendar
JANUARY 2008
• January 8: District of Columbia*
• January 14: Iowa (caucuses)
• January 19: Nevada (Dem caucuses)
• January 22: New Hampshire (primary)*, Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
• January 29: South Carolina (Dem primary)
FEBRUARY 2008
• February (Date TBD): Michigan, North Dakota (caucuses)
• February 2: South Carolina (GOP primary)
• February 5: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nevada (GOP primary), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington
• February 9: Louisiana
• February 10: Maine (Dem caucuses)
• February 12: Maryland, Virginia*
• February 19: Wisconsin
• February 26: Hawaii (Dem caucuses), Idaho (Dem caucuses)
MARCH 2008
• March 2: Hawaii (GOP caucuses)
• March 4: Connecticut*, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont
• March 11: Mississippi
• March 21: Maine (GOP caucuses)
APRIL 2008
• No scheduled contests reported at this time
MAY 2008
• May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
• May 10: Wyoming (Dem caucuses)
• May 13: Nebraska*, West Virginia
• May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
• May 27: Idaho (primary), Washington*
JUNE 2008
• June 3: South Dakota
AUGUST 2008
• August 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado
SEPTEMBER 2008
• September 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota
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