Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/8/12)

New today were five polls from three states. While none of them really shook up the existing FHQ weighted averages, the continued two-day progression across surveys of Colorado drew the most reaction.

New State Polls (8/8/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1463 likely voters
45
50
4
+5
+2.76
Virginia
8/7
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
48
46
3
+2
+3.01
Virginia
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1412 likely voters
49
45
5
+4
--
Wisconsin
8/2-8/5
+/- 2.9%
1188 likely voters
50
45
5
+5
+5.92
Wisconsin
7/31-8/6
+/- 2.6%
1428 likely voters
51
45
4
+6
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
I'm entirely sympathetic to the charge that the Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll released out of the Centennial state today is an outlier. Look, Sesame Street -- as I recall (my kids are well past enjoying those sorts of shows) -- devotes quite a bit of time to teaching kids to choose the item or items out of a group that doesn't/don't match the others. It is a basic skill. And yes, this poll does appear to be an outlier on the surface. None of the surveys that have been in the field in Colorado in 2012 have shown Romney ahead; tied with Obama a few times, but not ahead. The president's share of support in the poll (45%) is in line with others there, but the Romney share (50%) is definitely a high water mark for the governor thus far.

...by three percentage points.

But that is just polling variability -- broader than we have witnessed in Colorado for Romney at this point, but polling variability nonetheless. Again, the true test is to see whether the same sort of result repeats itself in subsequent polling. Of course, that polling is likely to show even more variability across the board with a vice presidential announcement and a couple of conventions.

Virginia:
The surveys out of Virginia today were more of the same. The president leads there, but it is a marginal/competitive edge. The new Rasmussen poll was an almost exact replica of the firm's July poll in the Old Dominion. The new Q-poll, while being within range of other recent polls, departs from the last poll conducted in the commonwealth which showed a tie. Romney's share is largely the same, but Obama's grew by five points over a poll that was in the field just a couple of weeks ago. FHQ won't make much of this because, again, one can fine quirks in just about any poll, and this is just polling noise. In the aggregate the noise favored Romney in Colorado and Obama in Virginia.

Wisconsin:
The two new Wisconsin polls, well, what's really to say? Both were mirror images of each other and were similar to other recent surveys of the Badger state. Call Colorado too hot, Virginia too cold and Wisconsin just right for Quinnipiac. All three states overall, stayed pretty much where they started in the FHQ weighted averages.


That means no change to the map and only a small shift on the Electoral College Spectrum. Colorado and Virginia switch places without fundamentally changing the calculus of how each candidate gets to 270 electoral votes. Obama could do without either state as long as he holds Ohio and New Hampshire,  and Romney needs both barring an uncharacteristic win -- assuming he doesn't swing Virginia and Colorado --  in one of the Lean Obama states. That isn't to suggest that it won't happen, but rather that it is unlikely that one (Lean Obama state flipping) happens without the other (Romney winning in most of or sweeping the Toss Up states).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
VA-13
(288/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
CO-9
(297/250)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remained unchanged by Wednesday's polls.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:30 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/7/12)

Meh.

FHQ tries to drive home the idea that no one poll is all that consequential. However, days with polls released from competitive states sometimes test that proposition. Such was the case today with new polls from both Colorado and North Carolina. Still, the result was a continued steady state. [And as sure as I'm saying that, you can be certain I would have called anything else an outlier. ...probably.]

Again, meh.

New State Polls (8/7/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/6
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
47
2
0
+3.40
Colorado
PPP1
8/2-8/5
+/- 3.5%
779 likely voters
46
42
7
+4
--
North Carolina
8/2-8/5
+/- 3.4%
813 likely voters
49
46
5
+3
+0.91
1 The poll numbers used from the Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 6% of the respondents. Without Johnson, Obama (49%) leads Romney (43%) by 6%. Using that data would have increased the FHQ weighted average margin to 3.62 in favor of the president.

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Two polls, two different results. But the tie from Rasmussen and +4 (for Obama) from Public Policy Polling did little to move the needle in the Centennial state where polling had trailed off of late. The common refrain around here in the event of a nearly simultaneous survey releases with differing results is to just take the average of both. An averaged +2 for Obama lags behind where the Colorado weighted average is now, but is not an terribly divergent from it either. It is good to have the data, but it really only confirms what we already knew of Colorado: Obama's slightly ahead there.

North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling has been the only firm other than NBC/Marist since May to show President Obama ahead in the Tarheel state. Every other poll has shown Governor Romney with the lead. Yet, none of those leads is ever greater +5 and most are in the 0-3 range in either direction. This poll is the rare poll to give the president the edge is North Carolina, but the result was well within the range of other polls we have seen in the lone remaining toss up state favoring Romney.


Needless to say, none of these surveys did anything to shift either Colorado or North Carolina on the map or in the Electoral College Spectrum. Colorado remains just on the Romney side of the tipping point -- Ohio -- but continues to be among a group of toss up states that are tilt collectively toward the president at the moment. North Carolina is the lone hold out; a state with a weighted average within 5 points of tied.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The +5 for Romney from Rasmussen in North Carolina last week took North Carolina off the Watch List and the latest PPP survey with Obama up 3 points puts the Tarheel state back on the list. North Carolina is now within a fraction of a point -- and just barely -- of switching from Toss Up Romney to Toss Up Obama. It also adds a little light red (pink) to a sea otherwise predominantly made up shades of blue.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 3:45 PM 2 comments
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Monday, August 6, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)

There were fewer straggling polls that surfaced either late Friday or over the weekend as compared to the week before. [FHQ wasn't around to deal with them anyway.] Those that were released were of little consequence to the outlook on the electoral college.

New State Polls (8/6/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Indiana
7/31-8/1
+/- 5%
400 likely voters
35
51
11
+16
+11.43
South Dakota
7/19-7/23
+/- 4.19%
546 registered  voters
43
49
8
+6
+6.54
Washington
8/1-8/2
+/- 4.4%
524 likely voters
54
37
5
+17
+12.02

Polling Quick Hits:
Indiana:
Now, FHQ said that what changes there were based on the newest collection of polls were not all that consequential, and while that is true on some level, it is not completely so. The latest Rasmussen survey of Indiana showed a slight growth in Mitt Romney's share of support, but a bottoming out of Obama's rate of response in the Hoosier state. The president's loss was offset by a fairly large and nearly equivalent increase in the percent undecided in this poll relative to the May Rasmussen poll.

What that left was a +16 Romney advantage in Indiana. However, for a barely blue state in the 2008 election, that is a larger swing back toward the red than has been witnessed elsewhere in 2012. Does that mean that this one is an outlier? Well, the poll did send the FHQ weighted average on Indiana into Strong Romney, but it was also only the third survey that has been in the field there in 2012. We should, then, expect some volatility albeit perhaps not this much. What is clear for both Indiana and South Dakota below is that these Lean or Strong distinctions are of little import. Neither is at all likely to slip into the president's column now or any time between now and election day. If either is blue on November 6, then the president will have been re-elected.
Changes (August 6)
StateBeforeAfter
IndianaLean RomneyStrong Romney
South DakotaStrong RomneyLean Romney

South Dakota:
See Indiana. Volatility, very sporadic polling, red state. And yes, red despite the shift toward Obama in this instance. Nielson Brothers is the only polling outlet that has surveyed the Mount Rushmore state. We see there almost the exact opposite of what happened in Indiana, though. The number of undecided respondents shrunk compared to a February poll and while both candidates' shares grew, Obama was the greater beneficiary -- nearly 2:1 -- over that time span. Again, this may have triggered a category shift, but South Dakota will be red in November. Cast in binary terms, both Indiana and South Dakota didn't budge and won't.

Washington:
Survey USA was in the field in Washington state just a couple of weeks ago and things have not changed all that much. Romney has held pat at 37% and Obama shifted from his lowest point in the polling of the Evergreen state to what had been his high water mark in the eight previous surveys. That is not an insignificant change, but one that is well within the range of polling data for each candidate in polling of the state.



All told this round of polling pushed Indiana into a safer position from the Romney campaign perspective. Meanwhile the gap between president and his Republican challenger in South Dakota contracted, but can hardly be considered tenuous for Romney. The changes are a function of the amount of polling in each and are not indicative of any major shift in the race. Both states are red and very likely to stay that way. But both change categories; Indiana dipping deeper into the heart of the Romney side of the Electoral College Spectrum ledger and South Dakota jumping all the way to the middle column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Washington, on the other hand, switches places with Minnesota on the Spectrum and goes off the Watch List into the Strong Obama category in the process. There has been some movement on and off the List of late, but the states most worth watching are the same states that have been worth watching: those in light blue. As we head into the fall campaign, the question remains whether those states stay where they are or drift over toward Romney either en masse or in some other combination.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

EDIT: There was also a new poll out of Virginia that showed the president up four points on Romney (44-40). There was, however, not enough information from Gravis Marketing (i.e.: sample size, dates, etc.) to include it in the weighted average in the Old Dominion.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 7:00 PM 0 comments
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