Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

Friday was another slow day for new polls, but the ones that were released didn't lack interest. The big news was the new Insider Advantage survey of Georgia, a poll that shows the race has narrowed quite a bit. In fact, that poll runs about seven points under where FHQ's graduated weighted average had the state prior to the poll's release. We had talked about Georgia earlier in the week and the idea that Obama's numbers in the Peach state were running behind Democratic senate candidate, Jim Martin. That's still the case, but it is only a handful of points now. Martin is knotted in a race with incumbent Saxby Chambliss according to that same Insider Advantage poll. If Georgia voters are in a "throw the rascals out" mood on election day, things could get interesting.

[Granted, I say this from a rather selfish vantage point. I'm more interested in competitive races where I am than blowouts. It's more fun for a political scientist that way.]

New Polls (Oct. 10)
StatePollMargin
Florida
Research 2000
+5
Georgia
Insider Advantage
+3
Iowa
Survey USA
+13
Michigan
Rossman/MIRS
+5
North Carolina
Marshall/WSOC-TV
+1.8
Ohio
Insider Advantage
+5
Oregon
Rasmussen
+11
Vermont
Rasmussen
+33

But the ominous signs for McCain on Friday weren't confined to just Georgia or rallies where he seemed to claim Obama wasn't some to be scared of as president. Florida and Ohio both turned in yet more results positive for Obama. [And I should note that I wrongly reported the numbers for the Strategic Vision poll of Florida yesterday. The Obama advantage in that poll was +8, not +7 as was listed in the table of polls.] Ohio has already crossed the partisan line to join the Obama states on the board and Florida continues to move in that direction as well. What we know about the recent polling in Florida and the methodology here is that when or if that switch takes place, it will likely be for good.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But it wasn't all bad for McCain. Michigan seems closer with the MIRS poll showing the Illinois senator's lead at just five -- a day after Rasmussen has the state at +16 for Obama. However, that poll comes with a caveat: it is a week old and likely didn't get a full picture of the reaction to McCain pulling resources from the Wolverine state. North Carolina, then was the lone survey that was positive for McCain. But that's indicative of how the perceptions are in this race currently. This looks great for McCain given the slew of polls lately that have had Obama ahead, but if you'd have told the McCain campaign a year ago that they would win the nomination and would have to defend North Carolina, they likely would not have liked their chances in November.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(306/252)
MS-6
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
NV-5
(311/232)
AR-6
(131)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
WV-5
(343/200)
TX-34
(122)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(354/195)
SC-8
(88)
ID-4
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(369/184)
AZ-10
(80)
OK-7
(12)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
IN-11
(380/169)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

None of the polls changed anything on the maps or in the Electoral College Spectrum, though. If our averages reflect how the states will go on November 4, then Obama would win with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227. As we discussed, however, Florida is well within position to switch over to Obama. Like Virginia the other week, a poll with a 10 point margin in Obama's favor would just push the Sunshine state into the blue. Now, is that realistic? I hesitate to say since the last time I did a similar exercise -- in Virginia's case -- I surmised that it was not. But, the next day brought a 10 point margin in Virginia. Is it feasible, though? The ceiling for Obama in Florida during this post-Lehman surge in the polls has been 8 points on three separate occasions. From that perspective, 10 seems a bit much, but we'll see. With the way polling data has been coming in this weekend, we won't likely know until early in the week ahead.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Georgiafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Needless to say, Florida continues to be on the Watch List as do all the other 10 states on the list yesterday. The only addition is Georgia and the Peach state moves on based on the strength of that Insider Advantage poll. Georgia is still out of Obama's reach as it is positioned on the Electoral College Spectrum above, but in a landslide election, the Peach state is increasingly likely to get caught up in an Obama wave, should one occur.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Well, the polling day started out slow, but by mid-afternoon it picked up a head of steam with ARG's release of new survey data from from seven states. The biggest news there? West Virginia giving eight points to Obama. The Mountain state, not content to see its eastern neighbor provide the Illinois senator with an eight point edge, followed suit in the afternoon with an equivalent margin. If only it worked that way. Well, it sort of has in recent days. The shift toward Obama has worked like contagion across much of the US, spreading through the Obama lean and battleground states and a handful of McCain lean and strong states as well.

New Polls (Oct. 9)
StatePollMargin
Alabama
Capital Survey Research Center
+19.5
Alaska
Ivan Moore
+17
Florida
Rasmussen
+3
Florida
Strategic Vision
+8
Georgia
Strategic Vision
+7
Indiana
Rasmussen
+7
Michigan
Rasmussen
+16
Minnesota
ARG
+1
Missouri
ARG
+3
Montana
ARG
+5
New Hampshire
ARG
+9
New Jersey
Rasmussen
+8
North Carolina
Rasmussen
+1
North Carolina
Civitas
+5
Ohio
ARG
+3
Ohio
Strategic Vision
+2
Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision
+14
Texas
ARG
+19
Virginia
Public Policy Polling
+8
West Virginia
ARG
+8

In total, Thursday brought 20 polls from 17 states. And once again, the list it chock full of blue. However, the list is not without notable red. The series of ARG polls had McCain striking back with a lead in Missouri to counter a couple of Obama leads in the Show-Me state in the last few days. The Arizona senator also got something good out of Indiana, where Rasmussen shows McCain up 7. But in Georgia and Montana things got tighter. The Peach state still seems far enough beyond Obama's grasp at this point for McCain, but the ARG poll of Montana offered a mixed tale. On the one hand, it counterintuitively increased from the post-convention poll the firm had done. But on the other hand, that 5 point margin is smaller than the trio of polls that followed throughout the rest of September.

Changes (Oct. 9)
StateBeforeAfter
New Hampshire
Toss Up Obama
Obama lean
West Virginia
McCain lean
Toss Up McCain

There isn't anything out of the newly established, post-Lehman ordinary in the blue states today. Well, other than West Virginia*, which isn't really blue, but got a heck of a lot closer today by moving fairly deeply into the toss up McCain category toward Obama. Now the charge has been leveled against ARG that that poll is or will be an outlier. Much of that has centered on the 55/35 Democratic/Republican party identification breakdown of their sample. Is that steep? Actually, it isn't as one of our great readers/commenters, Jack, discovered this afternoon. That 55% number for the Democrats in West Virginia is actually slightly below where voter registration was in the state for both the 2006 midterm elections and the primaries earlier this year. Is that a successful rebuttal to the outlier argument? No, but it does remove the party ID of the sample as a culprit.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Also, like Pennsylvania and Michigan before it, New Hampshire, has slipped into the Obama lean category. And that means that the lean states for Obama stretch all the way to the victory line of Colorado on the Electoral College Spectrum. And though the 311-227 electoral vote tally is the same as it was a day ago, McCain is down to but one lean state, Montana, and is now defending a group of toss up states totalling 69 electoral votes. The Obama toss up category is now down to the trio of states which had been the closest -- Virginia, Nevada and Ohio -- along with Colorado. The Illinois senator is now relatively safe in states totalling 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the number needed to win the race.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(306/252)
MS-6
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
NV-5
(311/232)
AR-6
(131)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
WV-5
(343/200)
TX-34
(122)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(354/195)
SC-8
(88)
ID-4
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(369/184)
AZ-10
(80)
OK-7
(12)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
IN-11
(380/169)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But back to Virginia, Nevada and Ohio for a moment. Over the last week Virginia has moved into the blue and has gotten closer and closer to Colorado on the Spectrum and behind the scenes, statistically speaking. But the Old Dominion has been supplanted on the list of the three closest states by Florida. And that means that Virginia is now off of the Watch List; it is not vulnerable to an imminent move into McCain territory with the addition of new polling. Florida, Nevada and Ohio certainly are though. And it is Florida that would be next on the list of states to switch sides of the partisan line if the Obama push continues in the polling ahead.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Indianafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Virginia is joined by North Carolina as states now off the Watch List. And while those two peripheral South states leave, Indiana now comes on board, switching places with North Carolina. What that means is that if this was next week when the toss up/lean line is dropped to three points, Indiana would be a McCain lean and North Carolina would be a McCain toss up. Both, however, would be on the Watch List to potentially change categories with new polling. Those two states along with Missouri are all tightly grouped at the moment, but while Missouri and Indiana have had contradicting results lately, North Carolina appears to be moving toward Obama and the partisan line. The fact that McCain is having to defend those state period speaks volumes about the state of this race. Missouri is understandable. The Show-Me state has been close in the past, but Indiana and North Carolina have not been Democrat-friendly states on the presidential level for a long time. Neither has gone with a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Indiana hasn't gone Democratic since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide and North Carolina has been with the GOP for a generation. The Tar Heel state hasn't given the nod to a Democrat on the presidential level since Carter's 1976 win in the state. Periodically throughout this campaign, the discussion here and elsewhere has centered on Obama's ability to change the map. Well, the map has changed. It may not be Obama per se, but it has changed.

*I should make a note on West Virginia. It shot up the list today and is now in line behind only Florida as a toss up on the McCain side of the partisan line. The methodological shift earlier in the week has a lot to do with that though. So you have to take that positioning with a grain of salt. The most recent poll is given the most weight and all the other past polls are discounted in our average. When the most recent poll is a potential outlier it can cause a fairly large shift. That is doubly true when there are as few polls as there are in West Virginia. As we discussed yesterday, West Virginia is a possibility for Obama in the case of a landslide, but this poll and the effect it had on the average may be overstating things a bit.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

Another slow polling day has reader, SarahLawrenceScott, asking:
"Supposing we do get a true Obama landslide, which state or states listed as McCain solid or lean are most likely to go for Obama?"
Indeed. What do you think? With momentum now squarely behind Obama, the discussion has shifted to how high Obama's ceiling is in this election. We already have an idea of where the McCain campaign is aiming here. After the Michigan pullout last week, the Arizona senator's campaign indicated that they were targetting Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But can Obama break into any of those lean or strong states of McCain's?

Let me weigh in here so that I'm not the first to comment on my own post.

It may be best to remove the ones that won't go for Obama first. I would eliminate the far right column on the Electoral College Spectrum. In the next column over, I'd take out Arizona, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska and Texas.

That leaves us with Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Dakota, and the two lean states, Montana and West Virginia.

You have three "groups" there: the southern states, the plains states and West Virginia. The Mountain state has been in the mid- to upper single digits for McCain since the conventions, but I just don't see that one going to Obama. If neither Kerry nor Gore could win there, I'm hard-pressed to see Obama succeeding.

But the other five states offer some interesting possibilities. With the exception of Mississippi, all of the states spent at least some time in the toss up category on FHQ's map. Obama had some sizable level of support in those states at certain points. I think Montana and North Dakota stand out there. The three southern states would have to see very heavy African American turnout to make it interesting.

But, and here's the thing, if this race looks in 26 days time like it does now, does that affect turnout? Would likely and potential McCain supporters stay home knowing he would not win anyway? This is where the potential for inreased African American participation in those three southern states is consequential. The trigger mechanism -- voting for the first African American presidential nominee -- is still there for those voters even if the race seems like a done deal. Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina are the most likely to go for Obama in the South and you could perhaps throw in Louisiana as well.

Increased African American participation or not, depressed conservative turnout could certainly tilt a few more states outside the South to Obama, and I think Montana and North Dakota are the most likely.

Your thoughts? The comments section awaits.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Talk About Bad Timing

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Wednesday was a surprisingly slow polling day, especially for a week day. And for the first time in a while you'll see a group of polls that is majority red. Sadly for the McCain campaign, all that red is from one state, Oklahoma, where a slew of backlogged polls got some attention from the poll-gathering sites. When that factor is accounted for, the impact of that red diminishes.

Other than the Sooner state, Georgia is the only other red state on the board for the day. The Peach state has tightened some recently, but it doesn't look as if the gap between McCain and Obama there (Well, here actually, for me.) will close enough to make it any more competitive. Obama is running behind Jim Martin's numbers in the senate race pitting Martin against incumbent, Saxby Chambliss. Much of Martin's gains recently can probably be attributed to the financial crisis. Chambliss pulled the classic "he was against it before he was for it" move on the bailout plan, and anecdotally speaking, some Georgia Republicans aren't happy about that switch. But Obama and Martin aren't on the same page on that issue and that could be part of the answer as to why the Illinois senator is lagging behind Martin's numbers against Chambliss. Of course, early voting had a disproportionate number of African American voters compared to their share of the total electorate so far in Georgia. And as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight demonstrated earlier this week, that could have a real effect on the margin McCain has in Georgia should those numbers persist.

New Polls (Oct. 8)
StatePollMargin
Georgia
Rasmussen
+9
Minnesota
Rasmussen
+7
Oklahoma
Tv Poll (9/7)
+38
OklahomaTv Poll (9/14)
+42.2
OklahomaTv Poll (9/21)
+39.3
OklahomaTv Poll (9/27)
+41.1
OklahomaTv Poll (10/5)
+36.4
Pennsylvania
West Chester Univ.
+10.3
Wisconsin
Research 2000
+10

On the blue side of the ledger, Obama continues to look more and more comfortable in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sure, the seven point margin Rasmussen found in Minnesota is below where some of the other polling firms have found the race in the state to be recently, but it is a continuation of the mounting evidence against the validity of that Survey USA poll out this past weekend -- the one that showed McCain up a point. The Rasmussen poll is the one closest to where FHQ's graduated weighted average of Minnesota is, though. [...I'm just saying.]
[Click Map to Enlarge]

Taken together, though, none of these polls are in any of our toss up states, and that nearly eliminates the potential for changes to the electoral vote distribution. In fact, there was no change to that tally. The most likely candidates for change of the electoral vote totals are Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and none of those states were polled yesterday (Oh, but PPP already has a poll out from Virginia this morning.). Obama, then, maintains the same 311-227 electoral vote edge that he held in yesterday's map.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
ID-4
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
OK-7
(12)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Sadly for us, the lack of any polls in those four states, means that there aren't that many changes to the Electoral College Spectrum or the Watch List. The latter is unchanged and the former saw only Oklahoma move, jumping Idaho in the rankings. The Sooner state and the Gem state are battling it out to see who can be the most supportive of McCain behind Utah. Actually, based on all those Tv Poll surveys, Oklahoma is now just behind Utah, a fraction of a point from overtaking it as the most intensely Republican state in this presidential race.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The dynamics of the race remain the same, then. That leaves the McCain campaign just 26 days to figure out a way to shift the momentum back toward the Arizona senator. And with just one more debate -- now a little less than a week off -- the number of high profile opportunities to do that are waning.


Recent Posts:
Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Talk About Bad Timing

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

I'm a couple of days late getting this up, but one of our loyal readers and commenters, Scott, updated his examination of the electoral college over the weekend, and I thought I'd put a map to it so we can "see" the shifts. For those who missed the first version, you can find it here. Here's the premise (...from that post):

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."
He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

And how does this change things on the map?

Changes (Sept. 23 - Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
New Jersey
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Oregon
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Washington
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Nevada
Toss Up
Obama lean
Florida
McCain lean
Toss Up
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up
West Virginia
Toss Up
McCain lean
Arkansas
McCain lean
Strong McCain
Montana
McCain lean
Strong McCain

As Scott said in the comments to the original post the other day:
"There are more toss-up EV's than previously, not less, but all of the gain came out of McCain's lean totals. In addition, Nevada moves out of toss-up status toward Obama, and New Mexico stands right on the edge of doing so."

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we get, though, is a much darker map. The McCain lean states and the strong McCain states sum to 185 electoral votes while the total of the comparable Obama categories is at a nearly foolproof 269 electoral votes. As is the case in many of the other electoral college analyses out there, the blue states and most of the battleground states are moving toward Obama and some traditionally red states are lining up behind McCain.

Good stuff, Scott. Thanks again.


Recent Posts:
Talk About Bad Timing

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

Talk About Bad Timing

Well, this one is bad timing on several levels.

But the GOP sure could have used this story about a month ago at their convention. It would have gone nicely with Sarah Palin's jab at community organizers. Post-Lehman, this doesn't do much for the McCain campaign, though.

It certainly does make people turn a skeptical eye toward massive voter registration drives, triggering increased discussions about voter ID requirements as the good folks at Election Updates rightly point out.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Debate day, part III brought not only the town hall meeting from Nashville last night, but 19 new polls from 12 different states. Again, not a lot of red to be had, and that is an ominous sign for the McCain campaign given that most of the states represented are battleground states or perceived battlegrounds. Alaska still looks like a gimme for the Arizona senator and traditionally red Indiana is favoring him as well, though not to the level some may have thought entering this election year. There is also some relatively positive news for McCain in North Carolina, where Survey USA shows him up 3 points. The downside to that is that along with last week's ARG poll -- one that found the same margin -- are the only ones since about mid-September to show McCain ahead.

New Polls (Oct. 7)
StatePollMargin
Alaska
Rasmussen
+15
California
Survey USA
+16
Colorado
Insider Advantage
+6
Florida
Mason-Dixon/NBC
+2
Indiana
Research 2000
0
Indiana
CNN
+2
Minnesota
Minnesota Public Radio
+14
Nevada
Research 2000
+7
Nevada
Insider Advantage
+2
New Hampshire
CNN
+8
North Carolina
CNN
+1
North Carolina
Survey USA
+3
Ohio
CNN
+3
Ohio
Public Policy Polling
+6
Pennsylvania
Survey USA
+15
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
+13
Wisconsin
CNN
+8
Wisconsin
Survey USA
+10
Wisconsin
Rasmussen
+10

Well, that's it for McCain and the rest is all Obama. Pennsylvania is rapidly being taken off the table. Double digit margin after double digit margin keep popping up in the polling of the Keystone state. That trend seems to be stretching to New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. Just yesterday I was thinking about how tightly compact Wisconsin's polling has been -- relative to say, Minnesota -- and now even the Badger state is shifting toward Obama.

Changes (Oct. 7)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama
Ohio
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

But the trend goes beyond the states around the line between Obama toss ups and Obama lean states. The recent rise in the polls has also been applied to the closest of states. Nevada and Ohio join Virginia on the blue side of the partisan line. The effect of this cannot be understated. Not only does that provide Obama with an added cushion in terms of how his campaign strategizes about the race, but it pushes him past 300 projected electoral votes. This cushion can certainly be discussed in terms of states, but in actuality it should probably be applied to electoral college votes. At 311, Obama has 41 electoral votes to give while still being able to claim outright victory.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

Obama remains relatively safe -- outside of toss up status -- in states totaling 260 electoral votes, but now has 25 additional votes in the blue with Nevada and Ohio switching over. Again, the discussion has shifted rapidly from one focused on how far McCain could push into Obama territory (Could he pick up Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example.) to one centered on how far down that middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum below Obama can extend. Florida, Indiana and Missouri are right there. And North Carolina is similar to Virginia, but how similar is the question. Geographically speaking, Indiana and Missouri are both in kind of a border region between a group of blue states and another group of red states. But that rule doesn't really apply to Florida. Then again, the Sunshine state is closer than either of the other two in our rankings. Are those realistic "gets" for Obama? Perhaps, but we'll have to see what transpires over this next month to find out.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
OK-7
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
ID-4
(9)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List is only slightly different today than it was yesterday. Obviously, Nevada and Ohio are still close enough to be vulnerable for Obama. The momentum, however, is certainly with the Illinois senator. The big news is that Pennsylvania is off the list. The Keystone state has moved outside of the 3-5 point range. With the graduated average margin there now above five, Pennsylvania has even jumped New Mexico above on the Spectrum. Was McCain's Michigan move last week designed to be more aggressive in Pennsylvania? If so, it isn't working. Not yet at least. Those resources may be better utilized in states like Virginia and Florida.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

With last night's debate not really changing much, McCain is seeminly up against it in this race. The media is set to jump on any move toward negativity that the campaign makes and with just one more debate left, McCain is running out of opportunites to make the case that Obama is the risky choice. Then again, Obama only seems to be helping the combat that charge in these debates.


Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

11:05pm: Folks, I'm off to plug in a few straggling polls to the data set for the electoral college. I'll be back mid-morning with an update. The comments section remains open, but I just don't think we witnessed anything tonight that is going to shake this race up in any noticeable way.

10:51pm: Obama is still working the room. Did McCain head off to a Palin-type rally like the Alaska governor attended after last week's vice presidential debate in St. Louis?

10:41pm: Wrap up. Well, if you were looking for a game changer, this wasn't it. I think McCain was certainly in his element tonight. But, in the end, he just didn't do enough to turn this thing around. I will say this: He did avoid the angry trap, but his trademark sarcasm reared its head a couple of times. Not to the extent that it did in those back and forths with Romney in the winter, but still it was there. McCain stressed a steady hand, and I thought Obama's performance was just that. Does a debate performance project White House success? Absolutely not, but that was an ironic twist to this: that Obama's performance was steady. McCain has left the building but Obama remains. He's talking with the guy who asked the Israel question now, the military vet. This is strange. Obama is still there working the crowd, but McCain has literally left the building. C-SPAN even found it necessary to come on and announce that they weren't following Obama around on purpose. Indeed.

10:37pm: Back on C-SPAN Brokaw's mike is still on. He is overheard saying, "You see what I was up against," no doubt referring to the timing issues that plagued this debate.

10:34pm: McCain has the last word and stresses the need for a steady hand. Both candidates block Brokaw's teleprompter trying to shake hands as the moderator tries to wrap things up. A light moment to end the debate; an otherwise tame affair. Brian Williams just called past town halls "boisterous." This one didn't pass that bar. I assume he was referring to 1992 or the infamous "chest bump" debate of 2000. Well, that's what George W. Bush thought Gore might do. If you haven't seen it, google, "Debating Our Destiny" and watch PBS's documentary on past debates. What am I? I'm the blogger here. Above is that link.

10:29pm: Last question: "What don't you know and how will you learn it?" Obama treats it like a closing statement and leans on the biographical section of his stump speech, stressing opportunity and change. McCain asks what will happen here and abroad? Read: Obama is a risky choice. And he, too, moves into the biography segment of his stump speech. But at least he sort of answered the question.

10:25pm: From the audience: If Iran attacks Israel will you commit troops to defend them? McCain: Pressure Iran with joint sanctions from the Allies. Obama: Focuses on a nuclear Iran. But says military options are not off the table. But he doesn't specify whether he's talking about the questioner's particular hypothetical.

10:23pm: Brokaw: Is Russia still the Evil Empire under Putin? McCain: Maybe. Can't say yes or no. A pretty good answer.

10:19pm: On to Russia. Again with the KGB Putin line? Alliances against Russia sounds a bit like the Cold War. Obama: Protecting former Soviet satellites is important. Was Poland a Soviet satellite? Now, it was under communist control, but was it a satellite?

10:18pm: A lot has been made of Obama saying, "he's absolutely right" about McCain in the first debate, but Obama McCain just said Obama was right on Afghanistan.

10:16pm: And now a Brokaw follow up. This time on Afghanistan. "Briefly, if you can," Brokaw adds. British commander: an acceptable dictator. Obama stresses democracy.

10:13pm: And we're bending the rules now on time. A follow up. Obama asks for one and McCain calls for equal time. Obama goes after McCain on "Bomb, bomb, bomb. Bomb, bomb Iran," as an example of McCain not "speaking softy and carrying a big stick." This bickering is not a positive here. Who will get the blame if this is a highlight of the debate? Obama asked for the follow up, but McCain gets the last word.

10:10pm: McCain has two heroes. First, Reagan and now Teddy Roosevelt. And he moves into an attack on Obama announcing he'd attack Pakistan. Like the first debate, "I've been there." This time to Waziristan.

10:08pm: Ooh, Pakistan. And it cuts right to the heart of an Obama statement on going in to get terrorists there. This should be good.

10:06pm: McCain is going the experience route here. Calling for a steady hand and judgment and that Obama is a risk for decisions like the withdrawal call, pre-surge.

10:04pm: Brokaw: Let's see if we can figure out the Obama doctrine or the McCain doctrine.

...for intervening in humanitarian causes when US security is not at stake.

10:00pm: Keeping the world peace. Does the economic situation affect the US's ability to do this? Well, Obama doesn't understand foreign policy according to McCain. "We don't have time for on the job training." Obama admits he doesn't understand.

...why the US invaded a country that wasn't a part of 9-11. Clever. Also clever? Pivoting to the amount of money being spent in Iraq and how that affects the US domestically.

9:58pm: In my best Dwight Schrutte voice: Question. Why is it Sarah Palin was made fun of on SNL the other night for cutting off the Gs on -ing words in last week's debate? Obama does it too. I may have answered my question already. Ha!

9:55pm: Health care, privilege, right or responsibility? McCain leans toward people having the freedom to choose what they want. Obama says it is a right.

9:53pm: McCain plays the "He will fine you" game. Arizona and Tennessee are neighbors now? "If you cross over the state line" and like what's offered in Arizona and not Tennessee...

9:50pm: Next question: health care coverage and costs. I crunched numbers all weekend, but I got to catch enough of the news to catch this "He giveth with one hand and taketh with the other" line from Obama on what he calls McCain's plan to tax this stuff.

9:48pm: "You know who voted for that. That one," motioning to Obama. Oh, and it was a Bush plan on an energy bill loaded with goodies. That "that one" part will be analyzed later in the MSM. This all sounds like Senate inside baseball to me.

9:47pm: Brokaw again on the time issue. This will be a long one. They have to make up for not doing a series of these over the summer, right?

9:46pm: But Obama also goes after McCain on drilling.

9:44pm: On to climate change. In this corner, nuclear. McCain has been on a ship with nuclear power and insists it is safe. In that corner, opportunity. Obama touts green jobs.

9:42pm: McCain is energized and sharp here in referring back to one of the earlier questioners.

9:40pm: "It's not that hard to fix Social Security," says McCain. Of course that followed, "I'll answer the question." Ah, another commission to solve problems.

9:37pm: Second internet question? Entitlements (social security and Medicare). Brokaw adds to the question by asking if action is possible within two years. Obama doesn't sign on to the two year thing, but does say he will address it in his first term. He had better hope the Democrats retain control of Congress in 2010 if he wins. Otherwise the first term thing will be tough. It will be even if the Dems hold control in 2010, perhaps.

9:35pm: Has McCain not learned from his Republican primary debates? That sarcasm never served him well. Obama is now proposing a tax increase and is a protectionist. Well, we'll get to that McCain promises.

9:30pm: Obama uses 9-11 to talk about a call to service in the US. Who bet on Obama bringing up 9-11 first? Whoever it was is not in the midst of an economic crisis anymore.

9:28pm: Ooh, the first internet question.

...from a 78 year old. Awesome!

Again with the projector. By the end of the night this will be the most famous planetarium projector in the world. This planetarium will be well off after this.

9:27pm: Alright. No split screens on C-SPAN. I'm off to HD land.

9:25pm: McCain gets the first crack at the first year priorities follow up for discussion time. He goes with energy and health care. Obama? Energy? Check. That one's tops. And education. And "our records"? Obama pivots to a discussion on taxes. I think he's gone over a minute here. Brokaw thinks so too.

9:22pm: "Most liberal big spender." Now there it is. I really thought Palin would be the one to do it, but hey here it is. And examples: a projector for a Chicago planetarium.

9:21pm: Scratch that. Cynicism is alright. McCain used it too. Maybe I'm too PC. Uh oh.

9:20pm: Twenty minutes in, I've got to say both candidates like this format.

9:18pm: How can we trust either of you to deal with the economy? Obama wades into the firestorm first. "I understand your frustration and cynicism." I would have steered clear of that last one. But I'm typing on a computer now, not in front of those folks.

9:16pm: Worse before it gets better? Obama says no and that revamping the regulation regime is a must. McCain? "Depends on what we do." Clever way to bring up this "risky choice argument" that the McCain campaign has been making about Obama.

9:14pm: Obama lets it go to directly address the questioner. Or not. Here comes Obama's side on the Fannie/Freddie charge from McCain. "I need to correct" McCain..."not surprisingly." Not surprisingly, Obama touts the deregulation charge. And we've traded barbs on Fannie/Freddie. McCain's lobbyist consultants have ties as well.

9:12pm: I'll be interested to see if Obama responds to McCain bring up the campaign suspension. Obama and his cronies? Obama is smiling.

9:10pm: There may be a dead horse in the room in Nashville. This "fundamentals" thing has been run into the ground. But hey, for good reason, it could be argued.

9:08pm: How are you not able to answer that question (on who to choose to replace Paulson in the Treasury)? And if not answer it, at least not pause like that. Meg Whitman? Isn't she going to run for governor in California?

9:08pm: Stylistically McCain is already in his element on this first question.

9:06pm: McCain subtly (or not so subtly) jabs at Obama for not appearing at any town halls over the summer.

9:03pm: Good start for McCain. He looked at Obama when he shook his hand. Check that one off the list. I'm looking at you MSM.

9:01pm: And we're off!

8:29pm: Alright folks, we are just a little over half an hour away from showtime in Nashville. [No, I'm not there.] I've been asked several times since the VP debate Thursday night if I thought we would see a "different" McCain at tonight's debate. I have no idea and I certainly don't think that it will be "angry" McCain if he does try to roll out -- Al Gore style, mind you -- an alternate debate persona. However, one thing McCain must do is find a way to shift this race in some meaningful way toward him. But with Obama up in the polls, McCain is back in the role of underdog (not that he wasn't there during the first debate) and that is a role he has relished in his time running for president. For Obama, the mantra is "steady as she goes," but with an audience asking questions the dynamic may be a bit different. One thing to keep in mind about tonight's proceedings is that there are no follow up questions from the audience or the moderator. I'm assuming that includes that candidates as well.

My goal? I'll be trying to extend my streak of non-booing live blogs to two (I kid, CBSmith.). I may even try to embed some of the footage here to go along with my comments. We'll see if I can actually pull that off. As always, I'll be watching on C-SPAN. I doubt we'll be getting the full time split screen in the town hall format. [I also doubt I'll be getting that royalty check from C-SPAN.]

Also, feel free to follow along and drop comments along the way.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)