Following the recommendation of the Rhode Island Board of Elections last week, Governor Gina Raimondo (D) issued on Monday, March 23 an executive order moving the Ocean state presidential primary from April 28 to June 2.
Rhode Island becomes the eighth state to move away from a pre-scheduled presidential primary in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. It is the fourth state so far to land on June 2. Pending decisions in Ohio and Pennsylvania, potentially among others, June 2 now offers 489 delegates to the Democratic national convention in July.
Yes, this change only moves 26 pledged delegates back five weeks on the calendar, but it does have some impact on the delegate selection process. While the election of district delegates will be minimally affect -- all 18 of them are elected directly on the primary ballot -- something will have to give in the sequence for selecting the statewide delegates. At-large and PLEO delegates are due to be selected by the Rhode Island Democratic party state committee on May 17.
There are a handful of issues attendant to that date of selection. First of all, district delegates are typically selected before statewide delegates. To go ahead with the May 17 selection would mean that statewide delegates would be chosen before the district delegates on the now-June 2 primary ballot. Second, Rhode Island is in the fortunate position of having empowered the state committee rather than a state convention to select statewide delegates. It is easier to reschedule that meeting or have it remotely than to do either with a larger state convention.
However, the state committee will have a decision to make regarding statewide delegate selection. They could on the one hand press forward with the May 17 meeting and select for each of the active candidates slates of delegates for each of the eight statewide delegate positions and fill any allocated in the June 2 primary after its results are certified. Alternatively, they could push the meeting of the state committee back from May 17 to a calendar spot after the June 2 primary.
Regardless, Rhode Island Democrats will have some decisions to make in terms of how the delegate selection process will proceed. But at least it is in just one facet of the process -- statewide delegates -- rather than adjusting for the whole delegation.
Beyond that, the secretary of state will also be working with local elections officials to accommodate a "predominantly" mail-in primary, one that provides in-person options for those with disabilities (and any other need for accommodation) and mail-in options for everyone else.
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Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea's press release on the Rhode Island presidential primary change archived here.
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1 Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohio all have moved from March or April dates to later May and June calendar positions.
Monday, March 23, 2020
Proposed Deal Would Shift Pennsylvania Primary to June 2
After some speculation last week about who ultimately had the authority to do so, it appears as if a deal has been hatched between the executive and legislative branches in Pennsylvania to move the commonwealth's primary from April 28 to June 2.
However, unlike a number of states that have reacted to the rapid spread of coronavirus, Pennsylvania will not act under any emergency powers vested in the executive branch.1 Instead, Pennsylvania decision-makers will follow an expedited course through the legislative process to make the date change.
The plan, as it stands now, is to take an existing elections bill (SB 422) -- one to create an election law advisory board in the Keystone state -- and use that as a vehicle to make the change. While the bill has lain fallow in the state House since the early summer of 2019, it will be resurrected in the House State Government Committee on Monday, March 23, passed as is and then be sent to the floor of the House.
It is there on Tuesday that two amendments will be offered. One would push the date of the consolidated late April primary to June 2. But another would take the newly revamped and relaxed absentee voting law in the commonwealth and relax it even more. Restrictions on counting expanded absentee voting would be lifted, allowing a count to begin prior to polls closing in the primary election.
Together, the changes would allow for a later primary date ideally outside of the window of the maximum coronavirus threat with broader absentee voting that can be tabulated in a quicker more efficient manner as the primary voting comes to a close on June 2 (assuming the bill passes).
Once the bill makes it through the House, it will have to go back to the state Senate for reconsideration post-amendment. If those changes are agreed to in full, then the bill will head to Governor Tom Wolf's desk for his consideration.
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In terms of the practical implications this change would have on the broader delegate selection process for Democrats in Pennsylvania, the effect would be minimal. As in several other states, district delegate candidates appear and are elected on the primary ballot. That can happen on any date. And the selection of Pennsylvania's statewide delegates is set to occur on June 13. Even with the primary date change, those at-large and PLEO delegates would be selected after the primary and by the state Democratic committee rather than a state convention. Pennsylvania, then, would avoid some of the sorts of gatherings that are prohibited by state governments to stem the spread of the coronavirus. Instead, primary voters will have the option of voting directly for district delegates through a mail-in absentee process and have the state committee select (and potentially remotely) the statewide delegates.
Other than pushing the date change through the legislative process, Pennsylvania avoids some of the complications other states have had with respect to the delegate selection process.
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Related posts:
Amended Bill to Move Pennsylvania Primary to June 2 Passes House
Pennsylvania Primary Bill Passes State Senate, Heads to Governor
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1 Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maryland have all seen governors and/or secretaries of state make these changes under emergency powers granted them.
However, unlike a number of states that have reacted to the rapid spread of coronavirus, Pennsylvania will not act under any emergency powers vested in the executive branch.1 Instead, Pennsylvania decision-makers will follow an expedited course through the legislative process to make the date change.
The plan, as it stands now, is to take an existing elections bill (SB 422) -- one to create an election law advisory board in the Keystone state -- and use that as a vehicle to make the change. While the bill has lain fallow in the state House since the early summer of 2019, it will be resurrected in the House State Government Committee on Monday, March 23, passed as is and then be sent to the floor of the House.
It is there on Tuesday that two amendments will be offered. One would push the date of the consolidated late April primary to June 2. But another would take the newly revamped and relaxed absentee voting law in the commonwealth and relax it even more. Restrictions on counting expanded absentee voting would be lifted, allowing a count to begin prior to polls closing in the primary election.
Together, the changes would allow for a later primary date ideally outside of the window of the maximum coronavirus threat with broader absentee voting that can be tabulated in a quicker more efficient manner as the primary voting comes to a close on June 2 (assuming the bill passes).
Once the bill makes it through the House, it will have to go back to the state Senate for reconsideration post-amendment. If those changes are agreed to in full, then the bill will head to Governor Tom Wolf's desk for his consideration.
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In terms of the practical implications this change would have on the broader delegate selection process for Democrats in Pennsylvania, the effect would be minimal. As in several other states, district delegate candidates appear and are elected on the primary ballot. That can happen on any date. And the selection of Pennsylvania's statewide delegates is set to occur on June 13. Even with the primary date change, those at-large and PLEO delegates would be selected after the primary and by the state Democratic committee rather than a state convention. Pennsylvania, then, would avoid some of the sorts of gatherings that are prohibited by state governments to stem the spread of the coronavirus. Instead, primary voters will have the option of voting directly for district delegates through a mail-in absentee process and have the state committee select (and potentially remotely) the statewide delegates.
Other than pushing the date change through the legislative process, Pennsylvania avoids some of the complications other states have had with respect to the delegate selection process.
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Related posts:
Amended Bill to Move Pennsylvania Primary to June 2 Passes House
Pennsylvania Primary Bill Passes State Senate, Heads to Governor
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1 Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maryland have all seen governors and/or secretaries of state make these changes under emergency powers granted them.
Friday, March 20, 2020
Indiana Delays Presidential Primary, Moves to June 2
On Friday, March 20, Indiana became the latest state to shift back the date on which it will conduct its presidential primary in the face of the threat of coronavirus spread. Governor Eric Holcomb (R) issued an executive order to move the May 5 primary in the Hoosier state back four weeks to June 2.
The change not only buys the state some time to potentially avoid any further fallout from coronavirus, but to implement other elections changes that may increase the voters options and ease of voting. But while the date change buys some time on those fronts, it tightens the window for the process the Indiana Democratic Party has laid out for completing its delegate selection.
It was not just the presidential candidates that were to appear on the May 5 primary ballot. As a consolidated primary, the election also included nomination contests for other federal, state and local offices. Also on the ballot were to be state convention delegate candidates. State convention delegates elected on the May 5 ballot would then have have gone on to the June 13 state convention. In district caucuses there, national convention district delegates would be chosen. And a quorum of those district delegates would then choose PLEO and then at-large delegates.
All of that can still happen with a June 2 primary, but those 28 days now lost because of the primary move are 28 fewer days to certify the election results and credential state convention delegates to the proposed June 13 gathering. That, in turn, affects how, how quickly and when national convention delegates will be selected to the national convention.
These are the trade-offs state parties are having to deal with now, juggling public health concerns with the impact electoral changes have on the carefully laid delegate selection plans made well in advance. Indiana Democrats have to answer the time crunch issues from the change Governor Holcomb made today.
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March 20 press release from Governor Holcomb's office on the primary move archived here.
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Related Posts:
Indiana Elections Commission Authorizes No Excuse Absentee Voting in June 2 Primary
The change not only buys the state some time to potentially avoid any further fallout from coronavirus, but to implement other elections changes that may increase the voters options and ease of voting. But while the date change buys some time on those fronts, it tightens the window for the process the Indiana Democratic Party has laid out for completing its delegate selection.
It was not just the presidential candidates that were to appear on the May 5 primary ballot. As a consolidated primary, the election also included nomination contests for other federal, state and local offices. Also on the ballot were to be state convention delegate candidates. State convention delegates elected on the May 5 ballot would then have have gone on to the June 13 state convention. In district caucuses there, national convention district delegates would be chosen. And a quorum of those district delegates would then choose PLEO and then at-large delegates.
All of that can still happen with a June 2 primary, but those 28 days now lost because of the primary move are 28 fewer days to certify the election results and credential state convention delegates to the proposed June 13 gathering. That, in turn, affects how, how quickly and when national convention delegates will be selected to the national convention.
These are the trade-offs state parties are having to deal with now, juggling public health concerns with the impact electoral changes have on the carefully laid delegate selection plans made well in advance. Indiana Democrats have to answer the time crunch issues from the change Governor Holcomb made today.
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March 20 press release from Governor Holcomb's office on the primary move archived here.
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Related Posts:
Indiana Elections Commission Authorizes No Excuse Absentee Voting in June 2 Primary
Kansas Democrats Forge Ahead with May 2 Party-Run Presidential Primary, but...
Kansas Democrats are not planning at the moment to make any changes to their Saturday, May 2 party-run primary.
And that is because, the party, like those in Hawaii and Wyoming has an insurance policy: mail-in voting. As in Hawaii and Wyoming, Kansas Democrats, too, had a pre-existing mail-in option in place as part of their original delegate selection plan. It was part of the the party's response to new Rule 2 encouragements to increase participation from the DNC for the 2020 cycle. That uniquely positions these states to lean on those mail-in options in lieu of in-person voting amid the coronavirus outbreak without having to change much about what they are doing.
Alaska also has a party-run primary with a mail-in option, but unlike Hawaii, Kansas and Wyoming, Alaska is not mailing out ballots to all registered Democrats in the state. Again, that uniquely positions the above trio of states to quickly and easily respond to the crisis. They were all already planning on mailing ballots to all Democrats in the state. Alaskans are not without that option. But Democrats in the Last Frontier have to request a ballot and have it postmarked by this coming Tuesday, March 24.
But for now in Kansas, Democrats are holding pat with their originally laid out delegate selection plan -- including in-person voting -- but are encouraging the use of the mail-in option.
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March 17 Kansas Democratic Party press release on party-run presidential primary archived here.
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Related Posts:
Kansas Democrats Eliminate In-Person Voting in May 2 Party-Run Presidential Primary
And that is because, the party, like those in Hawaii and Wyoming has an insurance policy: mail-in voting. As in Hawaii and Wyoming, Kansas Democrats, too, had a pre-existing mail-in option in place as part of their original delegate selection plan. It was part of the the party's response to new Rule 2 encouragements to increase participation from the DNC for the 2020 cycle. That uniquely positions these states to lean on those mail-in options in lieu of in-person voting amid the coronavirus outbreak without having to change much about what they are doing.
Alaska also has a party-run primary with a mail-in option, but unlike Hawaii, Kansas and Wyoming, Alaska is not mailing out ballots to all registered Democrats in the state. Again, that uniquely positions the above trio of states to quickly and easily respond to the crisis. They were all already planning on mailing ballots to all Democrats in the state. Alaskans are not without that option. But Democrats in the Last Frontier have to request a ballot and have it postmarked by this coming Tuesday, March 24.
But for now in Kansas, Democrats are holding pat with their originally laid out delegate selection plan -- including in-person voting -- but are encouraging the use of the mail-in option.
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March 17 Kansas Democratic Party press release on party-run presidential primary archived here.
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Related Posts:
Kansas Democrats Eliminate In-Person Voting in May 2 Party-Run Presidential Primary
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Puerto Rico Legislation Would Shift Presidential Primary Back to April or Beyond
The Puerto Rico legislative assembly acted quickly on the heels of a call from the Puerto Rico Democratic Party to change the date of the March 29 presidential primary on the island territory. Just two days after the request for a change from Democratic Party chair, Charles Rodriguez, the Senate introduced and passed a bill to push back the date of the Puerto Rico Democratic primary to minimize the potential for further spread of the coronavirus.
The bill -- S 488 -- would shift the Democratic primary from Sunday, March 29 to the last Sunday in April, April 26. But what was presented as an alternative path for the primary was also included in this legislation on top of the change to April 26. Should that date not get the election out of harm's way, then the state Elections Commission in consultation with the chair of the Democratic Party would select an alternative date for the contest.
Again, an even later date would not necessarily interfere with the Puerto Rico Democratic Party delegate selection plan as it is constructed for delegate selection. District delegate candidates will be listed on the ballot whenever the election is held. And a May 31 state convention is scheduled to select PLEO and at-large delegates. It is only if the election is pushed past that point that a change would run afoul of the selection process set forth in the party's delegate selection plan.
S 488 now moves on to the House for its consideration. The Puerto Rico Democratic primary remains set for just ten days from now.
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Related Posts:
Governor Vazquez's Signature Pushes Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary Back a Month
The bill -- S 488 -- would shift the Democratic primary from Sunday, March 29 to the last Sunday in April, April 26. But what was presented as an alternative path for the primary was also included in this legislation on top of the change to April 26. Should that date not get the election out of harm's way, then the state Elections Commission in consultation with the chair of the Democratic Party would select an alternative date for the contest.
Again, an even later date would not necessarily interfere with the Puerto Rico Democratic Party delegate selection plan as it is constructed for delegate selection. District delegate candidates will be listed on the ballot whenever the election is held. And a May 31 state convention is scheduled to select PLEO and at-large delegates. It is only if the election is pushed past that point that a change would run afoul of the selection process set forth in the party's delegate selection plan.
S 488 now moves on to the House for its consideration. The Puerto Rico Democratic primary remains set for just ten days from now.
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Related Posts:
Governor Vazquez's Signature Pushes Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary Back a Month
June 2 Presidential Primary Date Grows with Addition of Connecticut
Connecticut state officials including Governor Ned Lamont (D) and Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D) on Thursday, March 19 opted to push back the primary in the Nutmeg state to June 2.
Like Maryland two days earlier, the Connecticut presidential primary moves back five weeks from April 28 and joins a group of states with enough delegates at stake to now become the second-most delegate-rich state on the 2020 presidential primary calendar. For a state that first started conducting presidential primaries -- rather than caucuses -- in 1980, this is the latest Connecticut will have conducted a primary in the post-reform era. A Connecticut primary was never later than March until after the 2008 cycle, when the primary was shifted to the late April position it had occupied from 2012-2020 until today.
In moving the primary, Connecticut becomes the latest state to respond to the rise of the coronavirus threat by delaying its presidential primary. That number has now expanded to six -- Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohio -- and is likely to increase further in the coming days.
And like the other states, the change will have some effect on not only the timing of the delegate allocation from Connecticut but also the delegate selection process there. Connecticut Democrats are one of the few states that select district delegates in district caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves. That is a burden on campaigns in normal circumstances much less when the primary date is moving around. Those campaigns-organized district caucuses were to have taken place on May 27, nearly a month after the initial primary date, April 28. But with a June 2 primary, that may create an obstacle for the state party: move ahead with the delegate selection at that time and select slates of delegate candidates to fill any allocated slots won during the June 2 primary or delay that selection of district delegates until after the primary.
The statewide delegates will present fewer problems. PLEO and at-large delegates are scheduled to be selected by the state party committee -- and not any state convention or quorum of district delegates -- on June 10. That is a late enough point of selection to fall after the new early June primary date. And June 10 may also serve as a reasonable point on the delegate selection calendar to which to shift the district caucuses to select district delegates.
Regardless, the June 2 date not only keeps Connecticut in compliance with national party rules, but it allows the party some latitude in how to reformulate the delegate selection process.
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The new Connecticut presidential primary date has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
Like Maryland two days earlier, the Connecticut presidential primary moves back five weeks from April 28 and joins a group of states with enough delegates at stake to now become the second-most delegate-rich state on the 2020 presidential primary calendar. For a state that first started conducting presidential primaries -- rather than caucuses -- in 1980, this is the latest Connecticut will have conducted a primary in the post-reform era. A Connecticut primary was never later than March until after the 2008 cycle, when the primary was shifted to the late April position it had occupied from 2012-2020 until today.
In moving the primary, Connecticut becomes the latest state to respond to the rise of the coronavirus threat by delaying its presidential primary. That number has now expanded to six -- Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohio -- and is likely to increase further in the coming days.
And like the other states, the change will have some effect on not only the timing of the delegate allocation from Connecticut but also the delegate selection process there. Connecticut Democrats are one of the few states that select district delegates in district caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves. That is a burden on campaigns in normal circumstances much less when the primary date is moving around. Those campaigns-organized district caucuses were to have taken place on May 27, nearly a month after the initial primary date, April 28. But with a June 2 primary, that may create an obstacle for the state party: move ahead with the delegate selection at that time and select slates of delegate candidates to fill any allocated slots won during the June 2 primary or delay that selection of district delegates until after the primary.
The statewide delegates will present fewer problems. PLEO and at-large delegates are scheduled to be selected by the state party committee -- and not any state convention or quorum of district delegates -- on June 10. That is a late enough point of selection to fall after the new early June primary date. And June 10 may also serve as a reasonable point on the delegate selection calendar to which to shift the district caucuses to select district delegates.
Regardless, the June 2 date not only keeps Connecticut in compliance with national party rules, but it allows the party some latitude in how to reformulate the delegate selection process.
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The new Connecticut presidential primary date has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
Rhode Island Moving Toward Presidential Primary Date Change
Another April 28 primary state may be on the move.
The Rhode Island state Board of Elections voted 6-1 on Tuesday, March 17 to recommend to Governor Gina Raimondo (D) delaying the presidential primary in the Ocean state and scheduling it for June 2. The impetus for the change was the threat of further spread of coronavirus, but the Board also argued that the potential delay would allow them more time to better prepare for a possible all-mail ballot, something that Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) argued for in a letter to the Board.
The one dissenting vote on the Board sided with Gorbea on not only to shifting to an all-mail ballot but to continue with the April 28 date. Gorbea cited concerns about the date change's impact on the preparations for the September primary for other offices and the general election.
But for the time being it appears as if Rhode Island will be on the move. Legal counsel for the Board was preparing a draft emergency executive order for the governor to issue to override the state law.
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This would be the latest the Rhode Island presidential primary has fallen on the calendar since the early cycles of the post-reform era. The Ocean state primary was on the very same first Tuesday in June date for both the 1976 and 1980 cycles before moving into March for 1984.
The Rhode Island state Board of Elections voted 6-1 on Tuesday, March 17 to recommend to Governor Gina Raimondo (D) delaying the presidential primary in the Ocean state and scheduling it for June 2. The impetus for the change was the threat of further spread of coronavirus, but the Board also argued that the potential delay would allow them more time to better prepare for a possible all-mail ballot, something that Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) argued for in a letter to the Board.
The one dissenting vote on the Board sided with Gorbea on not only to shifting to an all-mail ballot but to continue with the April 28 date. Gorbea cited concerns about the date change's impact on the preparations for the September primary for other offices and the general election.
But for the time being it appears as if Rhode Island will be on the move. Legal counsel for the Board was preparing a draft emergency executive order for the governor to issue to override the state law.
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This would be the latest the Rhode Island presidential primary has fallen on the calendar since the early cycles of the post-reform era. The Ocean state primary was on the very same first Tuesday in June date for both the 1976 and 1980 cycles before moving into March for 1984.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Maryland Joins States Pushing Back Presidential Primaries on the Calendar
Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) on Tuesday, March 17 issued a proclamation that among other things postponed the presidential primary in the Old Line state, shifting the date from April 28 back five weeks to June 2. It will be the latest a presidential primary has been conducted in Maryland in the post-reform era and the latest a Maryland presidential primary has been held since before the state joined Super Tuesday for the 1988 cycle.
Hogan's decision throws Maryland into a growing number of states acting in response to the budding coronavirus threat. Five states now including Maryland -- Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Ohio -- have moved in recent days to delay their presidential primaries, shifting back anywhere from 35 to 77 days to avoid the window in which voters may be hunkered down at home in an effort to not spread the virus.
Unlike Kentucky and Louisiana, however, the decision in Maryland avoided running afoul of the national party rules on the timing of primaries and caucuses. While those two contests are technically too late according to those rules, the Maryland primary will fall on the last big day on which contests will be held, June 2, a week before the window closes under Democratic Party rules.
The change in the Old Line state will have some impact on the delegate selection process, but it will be pretty minimal. District delegate candidates are listed and directly elected on the primary ballot. That process, then, will move with the primary. Fortunately, Maryland is not one of the states where a quorum of district delegates is responsible for selecting at-large and PLEO delegates. Instead, it is the state central committee of the Maryland Democratic Party that makes those decisions.
However, that selection is set to take place on May 30, the weekend before the new date of the presidential primary. That leaves the state party with some options. The state party will forge ahead and select slates of at-large and PLEO delegate candidates for each remaining candidate on May 30 and fill any allocated slots after the primary. Alternatively, the party could shift back a week -- or some time after the new primary date -- and select those statewide delegates with the result of the primary in mind. Either way, this is a question that Maryland Democrats will have to answer in the coming days in the lead up to the June primary. But with no caucus/convention process to select delegates, Maryland Democrats emerge from this change with a limited number of process questions.
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Maryland proclamation postponing the presidential primary there is archived here.
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Related Posts:
Maryland Board of Elections Will Recommend an All Vote-By-Mail Presidential Primary for June 2
Hogan's decision throws Maryland into a growing number of states acting in response to the budding coronavirus threat. Five states now including Maryland -- Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Ohio -- have moved in recent days to delay their presidential primaries, shifting back anywhere from 35 to 77 days to avoid the window in which voters may be hunkered down at home in an effort to not spread the virus.
Unlike Kentucky and Louisiana, however, the decision in Maryland avoided running afoul of the national party rules on the timing of primaries and caucuses. While those two contests are technically too late according to those rules, the Maryland primary will fall on the last big day on which contests will be held, June 2, a week before the window closes under Democratic Party rules.
The change in the Old Line state will have some impact on the delegate selection process, but it will be pretty minimal. District delegate candidates are listed and directly elected on the primary ballot. That process, then, will move with the primary. Fortunately, Maryland is not one of the states where a quorum of district delegates is responsible for selecting at-large and PLEO delegates. Instead, it is the state central committee of the Maryland Democratic Party that makes those decisions.
However, that selection is set to take place on May 30, the weekend before the new date of the presidential primary. That leaves the state party with some options. The state party will forge ahead and select slates of at-large and PLEO delegate candidates for each remaining candidate on May 30 and fill any allocated slots after the primary. Alternatively, the party could shift back a week -- or some time after the new primary date -- and select those statewide delegates with the result of the primary in mind. Either way, this is a question that Maryland Democrats will have to answer in the coming days in the lead up to the June primary. But with no caucus/convention process to select delegates, Maryland Democrats emerge from this change with a limited number of process questions.
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Maryland proclamation postponing the presidential primary there is archived here.
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Related Posts:
Maryland Board of Elections Will Recommend an All Vote-By-Mail Presidential Primary for June 2
Kentucky Shifts Mid-May Primary to Late June in Response to Coronavirus
Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) on Monday, March 16 "exercising an emergency power granted to his Office under Kentucky law ... formally recommended to Governor Andy Beshear (D) that the elections scheduled for May 19 ... be delayed [until] June 23"
Beshear concurred with the recommendation and the primary in the Bluegrass state was shifted back five weeks to late June.
Yes, this is another coronavirus-related calendar change, but it is a move that brings with it some risks for the Kentucky Democratic Party. First of all, like Louisiana, the change positions the Kentucky primary outside of the rules-mandated window in which primaries and caucuses can occur in either party. The cut-off on the Democratic side is June 9, so a primary two weeks later in Kentucky opens the Democratic state party there to the penalties associated with a timing violation: a 50 percentage reduction in the national convention delegation to the national convention. And this is something the Democratic National Committee has raised as a warning.
And there are at least a couple of reasons for that.
One is that a June 23 primary in Kentucky comes just 20 days before the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to gavel in. That is a potential logistical nightmare for not only the credentialing process for the convention, but also the Kentucky Democratic Party and the delegates that will represent the state at the convention.
But couple that possible credentialing issue with the process of actually filling any delegate slots allocated to candidates in the June 23 Kentucky primary. That selection process as laid out in the Kentucky Democratic Party delegate selection plan was to have followed the May 19 primary. State legislative district caucuses were to have taken place on May 30 to elect delegates to the June 6 state convention where national convention delegates would be chosen.
On the one hand, keeping that same sequence -- a primary to allocate delegates completely followed by a caucus/convention process to select delegates -- is likely impossible with a June 23 primary. The last date on which any delegate selection occurs on the Democratic side this cycle is Saturday, June 20. The primary, then, comes after that and any caucus/convention process thereafter would run even closer to the start of the scheduled national convention in Milwaukee.
But on the other hand, a June 23 primary may be marginally workable if the Kentucky Democratic Party maintains the same selection sequence but have it precede the primary. In other words, rather than filling specific delegate slots for particular candidates at a state convention after the now potentially too late primary, the state party can continue with the caucus/convention process as scheduled and slate full groups of delegate candidate for any active candidate at that point. Then, the party could quickly take the results of the primaries and fill delegates slots allocated based on the primary results from those previously selected candidate slates.
No, that does not completely resolve all of the issues with such a late primary, but it would potentially mitigate some of the issues. After all, a number of states with late primaries conduct selection processes before their primaries by design with these very issues in mind.
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As a coda, there are couple of other notes. First, it should be added that the June 23 date Kentucky has chosen also violates the Republican National Committee rules on timing. June 13 is the Republican cut-off. That said, with an August convention, the RNC has a bit more latitude on this than does the DNC with a mid-July convention scheduled. Kentucky Republicans could still complete the delegate selection process in a timely enough manner to make thing work with that August convention start point.
The other thing to consider in the context of any Democratic penalties for scheduling the primary too late is that the rules do provide the state parties some cover. But it is unlikely to apply in either Kentucky's or Louisiana's cases. In both instances Republican secretaries of state acted to delay the primaries and schedule them for points on the calendar that are in violation of the national party rules. Normally, that would help a Democratic state party avoid sanction from the national party. A change made by someone of the opposite party is out of the hands of any state party.
But in both of these cases -- Kentucky and Louisiana -- Democratic governors had to and did sign off on the date changes. In other words, a Democratic official was involved in the change. It was this sort of conflict that helped sink Florida Democrats in 2008 when the Sunshine state moved to hold its primary to a position too early under the rules. The Republican-controlled Florida legislature passed the bill to move the primary and it was signed into law by a Republican governor. But Democrats in the legislature voted for the change too. The result? An initial 100 percent reduction in the Florida delegation.
Kentucky and Louisiana may not get that level of punishment given the circumstances, but they may be levied the 50 percent reduction called for in the DNC rules.
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Kentucky secretary of state press release on the primary move archived here.
Beshear concurred with the recommendation and the primary in the Bluegrass state was shifted back five weeks to late June.
Yes, this is another coronavirus-related calendar change, but it is a move that brings with it some risks for the Kentucky Democratic Party. First of all, like Louisiana, the change positions the Kentucky primary outside of the rules-mandated window in which primaries and caucuses can occur in either party. The cut-off on the Democratic side is June 9, so a primary two weeks later in Kentucky opens the Democratic state party there to the penalties associated with a timing violation: a 50 percentage reduction in the national convention delegation to the national convention. And this is something the Democratic National Committee has raised as a warning.
And there are at least a couple of reasons for that.
One is that a June 23 primary in Kentucky comes just 20 days before the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to gavel in. That is a potential logistical nightmare for not only the credentialing process for the convention, but also the Kentucky Democratic Party and the delegates that will represent the state at the convention.
But couple that possible credentialing issue with the process of actually filling any delegate slots allocated to candidates in the June 23 Kentucky primary. That selection process as laid out in the Kentucky Democratic Party delegate selection plan was to have followed the May 19 primary. State legislative district caucuses were to have taken place on May 30 to elect delegates to the June 6 state convention where national convention delegates would be chosen.
On the one hand, keeping that same sequence -- a primary to allocate delegates completely followed by a caucus/convention process to select delegates -- is likely impossible with a June 23 primary. The last date on which any delegate selection occurs on the Democratic side this cycle is Saturday, June 20. The primary, then, comes after that and any caucus/convention process thereafter would run even closer to the start of the scheduled national convention in Milwaukee.
But on the other hand, a June 23 primary may be marginally workable if the Kentucky Democratic Party maintains the same selection sequence but have it precede the primary. In other words, rather than filling specific delegate slots for particular candidates at a state convention after the now potentially too late primary, the state party can continue with the caucus/convention process as scheduled and slate full groups of delegate candidate for any active candidate at that point. Then, the party could quickly take the results of the primaries and fill delegates slots allocated based on the primary results from those previously selected candidate slates.
No, that does not completely resolve all of the issues with such a late primary, but it would potentially mitigate some of the issues. After all, a number of states with late primaries conduct selection processes before their primaries by design with these very issues in mind.
--
As a coda, there are couple of other notes. First, it should be added that the June 23 date Kentucky has chosen also violates the Republican National Committee rules on timing. June 13 is the Republican cut-off. That said, with an August convention, the RNC has a bit more latitude on this than does the DNC with a mid-July convention scheduled. Kentucky Republicans could still complete the delegate selection process in a timely enough manner to make thing work with that August convention start point.
The other thing to consider in the context of any Democratic penalties for scheduling the primary too late is that the rules do provide the state parties some cover. But it is unlikely to apply in either Kentucky's or Louisiana's cases. In both instances Republican secretaries of state acted to delay the primaries and schedule them for points on the calendar that are in violation of the national party rules. Normally, that would help a Democratic state party avoid sanction from the national party. A change made by someone of the opposite party is out of the hands of any state party.
But in both of these cases -- Kentucky and Louisiana -- Democratic governors had to and did sign off on the date changes. In other words, a Democratic official was involved in the change. It was this sort of conflict that helped sink Florida Democrats in 2008 when the Sunshine state moved to hold its primary to a position too early under the rules. The Republican-controlled Florida legislature passed the bill to move the primary and it was signed into law by a Republican governor. But Democrats in the legislature voted for the change too. The result? An initial 100 percent reduction in the Florida delegation.
Kentucky and Louisiana may not get that level of punishment given the circumstances, but they may be levied the 50 percent reduction called for in the DNC rules.
--
Kentucky secretary of state press release on the primary move archived here.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS
Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 182 [34 at-large, 20 PLEOs, 101 congressional district, 27 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Illinois primary for the third consecutive cycle -- and for the eleventh out of 12 post-reform cycles -- will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, Illinois will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona and Florida) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Land of Lincoln, Illinois Democrats will have the second most delegates at stake on March 17.
While the date of delegate allocation did not change, the Illinois Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates decreased by one district delegate, but gained three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were little to no changes in Illinois since 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Illinois's 101 congressional district delegates are split across 18 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Illinois Democrats are using. The formula for apportioning delegates to congressional district in the Land of Lincoln is based on three equally weighted measures of Democratic support:
That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 5 delegates*
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 5 delegates*
CD14 - 5 delegates*
CD15 - 3 delegates*
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 101 of the district delegates in Illinois will be elected on the March 17 primary ballot. Filing for ballot access closed on January 3, 2020. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary meetings to be scheduled within 30 days of the primary by the state committeeman and committeewoman from the congressional district. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on April 27 by quorum of national convention district delegates based on the statewide results in the primary.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late April when the Illinois statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.
Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 182 [34 at-large, 20 PLEOs, 101 congressional district, 27 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Illinois primary for the third consecutive cycle -- and for the eleventh out of 12 post-reform cycles -- will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, Illinois will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona and Florida) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Land of Lincoln, Illinois Democrats will have the second most delegates at stake on March 17.
While the date of delegate allocation did not change, the Illinois Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates decreased by one district delegate, but gained three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were little to no changes in Illinois since 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Illinois's 101 congressional district delegates are split across 18 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Illinois Democrats are using. The formula for apportioning delegates to congressional district in the Land of Lincoln is based on three equally weighted measures of Democratic support:
That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 5 delegates*
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 5 delegates*
CD14 - 5 delegates*
CD15 - 3 delegates*
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 101 of the district delegates in Illinois will be elected on the March 17 primary ballot. Filing for ballot access closed on January 3, 2020. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary meetings to be scheduled within 30 days of the primary by the state committeeman and committeewoman from the congressional district. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on April 27 by quorum of national convention district delegates based on the statewide results in the primary.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late April when the Illinois statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.
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