The Electoral College Map (6/16/20)

With 20 weeks until election day 2020, it is time to dust off the old electoral college map.

Even as the coronavirus-delayed presidential nomination races trundle on toward their respective ends, we have known since at least April who the two major party candidates will be in November. And as more state-level polling has rolled in over the first five plus months of 2020, the picture of the state of that race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has taken on a clearer shape. That is not exactly unexpected. After all, as election day grows nearer, minds get made and certainty as to the outcome tends to increase.

But what early on in 2020 may have looked like a close election between Biden and Trump looks different now that the incumbent has two crises yoked to his reelection efforts. The social, economic and public health stresses placed on the American public due to the coronavirus and the civil unrest stemming from law enforcement abuses have not done Trump any favors. As his approval numbers have declined so, too, have his prospects in state-level preference polls gauging the state of the race between Biden and Trump.

On the one hand, that does not look unlike what the picture did just four years ago. But Trump was not an incumbent with more than three years of White House experience under his belt at that point. Questions remained in 2016 about whether and to what extent Republicans would rally around Trump as their standard bearer. Those questions persisted into the nominating convention and were periodically raised again thereafter, most famously following the revelations in the Access Hollywood tapes.

Those types of questions -- about Republicans coalescing behind the president -- do not exist today. Self-identified Republicans are with Trump. Democrats and a fluctuating number of independents are not. And that is borne out in the polling data time and time again in the waning days of spring 2020.

As it stands now, just 20 states -- worth a total of 125 electoral votes -- are either strongly or leaning toward the president. Another three -- Georgia, Iowa and Texas along with Maine's second congressional district -- are Trump toss up states, states that are tipped toward the Republican but where he only enjoys a lead of less than five points in the FHQ graduated weighted averages. And those toss up states (and congressional district) total another 61 electoral votes, a little less than a third of what Trump can claim at this point in the race.

Trump's has lost nearly four and a half points on average from his November 2016 share of support to where he stands now in the state-level polls. He is running behind 2016 almost everywhere where polls have been conducted. His only increases are in states unlikely to be competitive in the fall: dark blue Maryland and typically ruby red Utah. That is it. [He is also running even with his share in New Mexico compared to 2016.]

Biden, on the other hand, has gained on what Hillary Clinton managed in 2016, having added almost two and three-quarters points on average through the polling released so far in calendar 2020. Together that is a more than seven point shift toward the Democrat. If Trump is down nearly everywhere, then Biden up if not everywhere then in consequential locales. The former vice president is running even with or ahead of Clinton in 26 states. 19 of those states were red in 2016 and of those six -- Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas -- are currently toss ups. Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are already shaded in light blue, so they would, meaningfully, be flips from 2016.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NH-4 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	AZ-11 (260)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-103 (270/278)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	FL-29 (299/268)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	MI-16 (228)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	NE CD2-1 MN-10 (239)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NV-6 (245)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Wisconsin (Biden's toss up states up to Wisconsin), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Wisconsin is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Perhaps all of this can change as it did four years ago. Again, through the lens of the electoral college, Biden is starting out roughly where Clinton did at this time in 2016: seemingly comfortably ahead. And although that still looked the case in November 2016, the trajectory of (electoral college) change over the course of the general election campaign was if not toward Trump then toward a tightening in the polls over time (that created a tightening in the electoral college projection). That could still happen in 2020, but the incumbent is off to a less than stellar start and his fundamentals are not being helped at all by current conditions in the country.

It is early yet, but it could get late early in this race if current trends hold. But time will tell that tale over the next 140 days.

--
A few thoughts now that FHQ has gone through all the calendar year 2020 state-level polling over the last few days.
1) Not surprisingly, the blue wall states are the most-polled states of 2020 with Michigan at the head of the pack. Florida and North Carolina are up there too as is Texas which had not been polled once at this point in 2016. I would not exactly call those states over-polled at this juncture in the race, but the picture is clearer there than it is in some states that could really use some survey activity. Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire stand out as a cohort of states in the Electoral College Spectrum above that seem to be lagging behind some other states that have shifted more since 2016. And there is good reason for that: polling in each of the three states has been sporadic at best and nearly non-existent of late. Some more data would help clarify things among that trio of states. Add those three to the Watch List; not for potentially changing categories, but because more polling is needed in each.

2) Texas and to a lesser extent Arizona may grab all of the headlines because both may flip blue in November after being staples among the red states for more than 20 years (much longer in the case of Texas). But if you had told me in 2008 that Colorado and Virginia would be strong blue states out of the gates in 2020, I would have been surprised. As consistent at the ordering of states can be from cycle to cycle, there are noteworthy -- and consequential! -- changes to it over time.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

One of Biden's Magic Numbers is Now a Little Different

No, not among pledged delegates.

Former Vice President Joe Biden clinched the Democratic presidential nomination over the weekend, surpassing the 1991 pledged delegates necessary to reach a majority. But with nearly one-fifth of all delegates yet to be allocated in the remaining contests, it remains to be seen whether Biden will earn enough pledged delegates and open the door to superdelegate participation in the presidential nomination roll call vote during the national convention.

To do that the presumptive Democratic nominee would have to be allocated a majority of all delegates (in pledged delegates). That way superdelegates would be unable to overturn a tight pledged delegate majority -- one that does not exist in 2020 -- if the group voted as a bloc. But again, that will not be necessary in 2020. Biden has a wide enough pledged delegate lead to have clinched the nomination by the pledged delegate method. The only question left outstanding is whether he will win enough delegates to allow superdelegate participation on the first ballot.

Biden is on pace to do that, but that number -- the majority of all delegates -- has changed during primary season. Appendix B to the Call for the Convention had the number of superdelegates at 771 at the end of 2019. For the 2020 cycle, however, the secretary of the Democratic National Committee had to certify the number of superdelegates to each state party by March 6, 2020 under Rule 9 of the 2020 delegate selection rules.

That subsequent certification adjusted the number of superdelegates in 23 states and territories. And those changes ranged from an addition of four (4) superdelegates in New York to a loss of two (2) superdelegates in three jurisdictions (District of Columbia, Illinois and Oregon).


Although, in the aggregate, the changes across all 23 states and territories largely cancelled each other out. There ended up being three more delegates added from states than subtracted. And that increases not only the number of superdelegates to 774, but slightly raises the magic number of all delegates Biden would have to win in order to allow superdelegates into the roll call voting at the convention.

So, instead of that number being 2376 delegates, Biden will have to get to 2378 pledged delegates to trigger the superdelegate voting privileges. No, that is unlikely to be too high a bar for the former vice president to clear. But it is a change.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: PUERTO RICO

PUERTO RICO

Election type: primary
Date: July 12
    [March 29 originally and then April 26]
Number of delegates: 58 [11 at-large, 7 PLEOs, 33 congressional district, 7 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (post-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

For years Puerto Rico Democrats have maintained their early June position on the presidential primary calendar. But with a competitive race and multi-candidate field on the horizon for the 2020 cycle the legislature in the island US territory opted in mid-2019 to move the election up more than two months to the end of March.

Although, as with so much else in 2020, the best laid plans for an earlier contest and consequential impact on the race were scuttled by the outbreak of the coronavirus in mid-March. And with that late March contest, Puerto Rico was very much in the crosshairs, more immediately in need of a change to the date of the contest and/or the method by which it would be conducted. The initial legislative response to the coronavirus was to shift the primary to a later date, one month later on the last Sunday in April. And that option wisely provided a fallback option to postpone the Democratic presidential primary and have the party, in consultation with the elections commission, choose a different and later date. The coronavirus's spread forced the issue soon thereafter in early April, and the Puerto Rico Democratic Party indefinitely delayed the primary. The contest was not rescheduled again until late May when the party selected a July 12 date for its presidential primary (a calendar position that had been hinted at during a DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) meeting).

As with other states that have technically broken the DNC rules on the timing of delegate selection events after June 9, Puerto Rico Democrats also had to seek a waiver from the DNCRBC in order to move forward with a contest on the new July date. That waiver was granted.

While the date of the primary has changed, little else has. Early and absentee voting remain very limited on the island, and unless the laws are changed before the primary, the contest will be predominantly in-person.

--

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Puerto Rico changed by nine delegates from 2016 to 2020. Since the primary in the territory moved from June in 2016 to March in 2020, Democrats in Puerto Rico lost their timing bonus and saw their district delegates decrease by seven and their at-large delegate pool shrink by two delegates. The PLEO and superdelegate totals remained the same in 2020 as they were in 2016.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specific to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Puerto Rico's 33 congressional district delegates are split across eight senatorial districts and have a variation of just one delegate across districts. There is no measure of Democratic strength based on past elections because Puerto Ricans are not involved in presidential general elections. The party, then, apportions delegates as follows...
District 1 (San Juan) - 4 delegates
District 2 (Bayamon) - 4 delegates
District 3 (Arecibo) - 5 delegates*
District 4 (Mayaguez) - 4 delegates
District 5 (Ponce) - 4 delegates
District 6 (Guayama) - 4 delegates
District 7 (Humacao) - 4 delegates
District 8 (Carolina) - 4 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The selection of delegates in Puerto Rico was not fundamentally affected. While the timing was pushed back as with the primary itself, the mechanics of delegate selection have not been changed all that much. District delegates will continue to be directly elected on the July 12 presidential primary ballot just as they would have been on either March 29 or April 26 before.

Both PLEO and then at-large delegates will be chosen at the state convention on July 26. The voting members of the convention who will select PLEO delegates include the central committee and the district delegates (to the national convention) elected on the July 12 ballot. At-large delegates will then be chosen by the same central committee members and district delegates plus the just selected PLEO delegates.

None of that -- other than the timing -- is different from what was planned before the coronavirus.


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid- to late July when the Puerto Rico statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the mid-July primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: GUAM

GUAM

Election type: territorial caucuses
Date: June 6
    [May 2 originally]
Number of delegates: 13 [7 at-large delegates, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional territory-wide
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: territorial caucuses (proportional)
Delegate selection plan (post-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Changes have not exactly been plentiful in Guam over the years with respect to how Democrats in the US territory allocate and select their delegates to the national convention. After all there are only so many ways to conduct that process with a small number of people and with only seven at-large delegates to allocate and select.

But the coronavirus forced Guam Democrats out of their comfort zone and out of the party's first Saturday in May calendar position; the one typically set aside for presidential caucuses. Some time during March or April the territorial party made the decision to indefinitely postpone the caucuses due to the spread of the pandemic. And it was not until June 3 that the party submitted and had approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee a revised delegate selection plan.

That plan basically looks like a normal Guam Democratic Party delegate selection plan. The party will caucus on June 6, gauge presidential preference and allocate delegates in proportion to the share of the qualified vote (15 percent or more) each candidate receives. Given the time available, the party indicates in the plan, it will not be able to conduct any mail-in voting. The Saturday, June 6 caucuses, then, will be an in-person affair among registered Guam Democrats. [Prospective voters can registered at the caucuses.] Additionally, a drive-thru option will be available in some caucus locations.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies territory-wide for the allocation of the seven at-large delegates.


Delegate allocation (at-large)
To win any at-large delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the territory-wide vote in the caucuses. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the allocation of those delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
There are no congressional districts or other subdivisions within Guam and as such there are no district delegates to allocate in the June 6 caucuses.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The seven at-large delegates to the national convention from Guam will be selected at the June 6 territory-wide caucuses. Delegate candidates were to have filed by May 30 and will be selected in proportion to the vote of qualifying candidates in the caucuses.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of territory-wide delegates, then any territory-wide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. However, given the simultaneity of the allocation and selection on June 6 in Guam, that means that there is no real potential for reallocation of those territory-wide delegates. This reallocation would only applyi if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain territory-wide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent territory-wide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the territory-wide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified territory-wide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: LOUISIANA

LOUISIANA

Election type: primary
Date: July 11
    [April 4 originally and then June 20]
Number of delegates: 60 [12 at-large, 7 PLEOs, 35 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
    [Changes, post-coronavirus: March | April]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

2019 was a mostly quiet year for primary movement compared to some recent cycles, but Louisiana was one of the few states that shifted to a different date for 2020. The change to a later date in 2020 -- the first Saturday in April -- was less about the presidential primary and more about the timing of local elections. But it did have the added benefit to Pelican state Democrats of adding bonus delegates to their total.

However, that was all before the coronavirus. After the pandemic began to spread, Louisiana became the first state to make a change, shifting the April 4 primary back to June 20. Louisiana was the first was not the last state to move, and in Louisiana's case, move again. The mid-March decision to push the primary to June did not hold very long as the coronavirus extended its reach and peak well into April. It was then -- in mid-April when the coronavirus was at its worst in New Orleans -- that the decision came down from Governor John Bel Edwards (D), moving the primary back another three weeks to July 11.

But while the change bought election administrators some additional time to get out of the shadow of the pandemic, only a slight change was made to absentee vote-by-mail in the  Pelican state. Typically, an excuse is required in order to receive an absentee ballot and that did not change in 2020. However, several coronavirus-related excuses were added to the list gradually expanding who and how many Louisianans will qualify for a vote-by-mail ballot. That diverges from how most later primary states that have moved (and even those who have not) have reacted in the wake of the coronavirus. Most states have mailed either absentee applications or ballots to voters, but Louisiana has opted not to. But then again, most states did not move to dates as late as the July date on which the Louisiana primary settled.

All absentee ballots are due to county elections offices on or before 4:30pm on Friday, July 10 for most voters. Military and overseas officials have until 8pm on Saturday, July 11 to have their absentee ballots into county registrars.

Overall, the Democratic delegation from Louisiana changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates rose by two and one additional at-large delegate was tacked on as well. Those increases were a direct result of the timing bonus the state party gained from the primary moving to April from early March. PLEO delegates and superdelegates remain the same in 2020 as they did in 2016.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specific to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Louisiana's 35 congressional district delegates are split across six congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Pelican state Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and 2019 gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 6 delegates
CD5 - 6 delegates
CD6 - 5 delegates*

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
Under the originally approved Louisiana Democratic Party delegate selection plan, the 35 district delegates were to have been selected in a vote-by-mail system throughout April open to all registered Democrats who wanted to apply with the party. That system was unique among states before the coronavirus, but is less so after it. That system remains and was pushed back, but will now be a pre-primary exercise to slate district delegate candidates to be chosen from to fill delegate slots allocated in the July 11 primary. District delegate ballots were mailed out by the state party on April 29 and due back, postmarked by May 18.

Statewide delegates were to have been selected by the State Central Committee at a May 9 meeting, but that, too, became a casualty of the coronavirus. Louisiana Democrats opted to lean on a vote-by-mail system for selecting PLEO and then at-large delegates will continue to be chosen by the State Central Committee, but members will do so via a vote-by-mail system in which ballots were sent out on May 22 and will be due to the party, postmarked by June 8. Again, as with the district delegate selection process, the selection of statewide delegates will take place before the primary, slating delegate candidates to be chosen from after the primary.


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. Under a deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote. Louisiana Democrats will select slates of delegate candidates in pre-primary votes-by-mail. Delegates slots allocated to the candidates will be filled from those slates once the results are in from the July 11 primary, negating much of the normal reallocation rules.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NEW JERSEY

NEW JERSEY

Election type: primary
Date: July 7
    [June 2 originally]
Number of delegates: 146 [28 at-large, 14 PLEOs, 84 congressional district, 20 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the (paired) legislative district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
    [Timeline of changes, post-coronavirus]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Rarely in the post-reform era has the consolidated New Jersey primary been uprooted from its traditional early June position on the presidential primary calendar and moved to another spot. That was no different from 2016-2019. But as has been the case in a number of other states, the coronavirus served as an impetus for electoral change in 2020 in the Garden state as well.

Governor Phil Murphy (D) issued an executive order in early April to shift the primary 35 days deeper into the calendar and beyond the DNC rules-defined deadline to hold delegate selection events. Along with the move from June 2 to July 7, the governor also bought the state more time to push the state toward a predominantly vote-by-mail election. While there will be a reduced number of polling places on primary day, all registered voters in New Jersey will receive an absentee vote-by-mail ballot with return postage included. That is a route taken most clearly by Maryland, but all counties in Montana also opted to send ballots -- not applications for absentee ballots -- to eligible voters. New Jersey joins that group.

All absentee ballots are due to county elections offices postmarked on or before Tuesday, July 7. If a ballot meets that criterion, then it will be accepted until July 14. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in New Jersey changed by five delegates from 2016 to 2020. All three pledged categories of delegates retained their same numbers from four years ago while all the gains in the delegation came from the additional of five superdelegates to the delegation.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specific to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
New Jersey's 84 congressional district delegates are split across 20 paired state legislative districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Garden state Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 3 delegates*
CD2 - 3 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates
CD4 - 4 delegates
CD5 - 3 delegates*
CD6 - 3 delegates*
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 4 delegates
CD10 - 3 delegates*
CD11 - 3 delegates*
CD12 - 4 delegates
CD13 - 4 delegates
CD14 - 3 delegates*
CD15 - 6 delegates
CD16 - 6 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 6 delegates
CD19 - 6 delegates
CD20 - 5 delegates*

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The coronavirus pushed the presidential primary in the Garden state back by five weeks and the timeline of the delegate selection process New Jersey Democrats are using basically mimics that change. The 84 district delegates in the New Jersey are directly elected on the primary ballot on July 7, listed alongside the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged. That selection moved when the primary moved. And so did the selection of statewide delegates. The New Jersey Democratic State Committee will choose PLEO and then at-large delegates in a post-primary meeting that will fall on July 18.

[Under the originally approved and compliant delegate selection plan, New Jersey Democrats would still have directly elected their district delegates on the primary ballot, but on June 2. Likewise, the PLEO and at-large delegates would have been chosen by a post-primary state committee meeting that was planned for June 13.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early July when the New Jersey statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the mid-July primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: DELAWARE

DELAWARE

Election type: primary
Date: July 7
    [April 28 originally and then June 2]
Number of delegates: 32 [5 at-large, 2 PLEOs, 14 congressional district, 11 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the subdivision level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (mid-coronavirus)
    [Updated plan after primary move to July 7]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Little changed in the delegate selection process for Delaware Democrats from 2016 until the beginning of 2020. There was an effort to consolidate all of the primaries in a presidential election year for the last Tuesday in April slot that the Delaware presidential primary has occupied since the 2012 cycle. But the non-presidential primary stayed in September and the presidential primary remained in April.

And that was the case until the coronavirus pandemic and its attendant impact on the electoral process happened. That triggered not one, but two presidential primary moves. First, Delaware Governor John Carney (D) in late March pushed the primary back to June 2. However, that date proved difficult not only because the virus and its potential for spread during in-person voting even in June, but because of the tiny window to jumpstart no-excuse absentee voting in a state that did not have that infrastructure in place.

That led to a subsequent change in the Delaware election calendar in early May. Governor Carney moved the Delaware presidential primary back to July 7 (a move for which Delaware Democrats received a DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee waiver because the date falls after June 9), and also called for all eligible Delaware voters to be mailed an absentee ballot application. These changes conform with what a number of other states -- both Democratic and Republican-controlled -- that have had to make changes in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak have done.

All absentee ballots are due to county elections offices on before Tuesday, July 7. That is received and not postmarked by 8pm on June 7. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation from Delaware changed by just two delegates from 2016 to 2020. All of the pledged delegate categories remained the same and First state Democrats added two superdelegates in that time.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Delaware's 14 congressional district delegates are split across four subdivision districts -- Wilmington city and three counties -- carved out of the one congressional district state. Those districts have a variation of just two delegates across them from the measure of Democratic strength First state Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
Wilmington city - 2 delegates
New Castle County - 8 delegates
Kent County - 2 delegates
Sussex County - 2 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The selection of Delaware's 21 pledged delegates go through a multi-tiered process starting with "representative district-level" caucuses (RDLC). Those events were planned throughout March (and before April 28), but were interrupted by the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent lockdowns. That meant that some of those caucuses were completed in-person while alternate plans had to be made for the remaining caucuses. All Democrats registered by January 1, 2020 were eligible to participate in the RDLCs and ballots were made available for download on April 15. Participants could mail those ballots postmarked by May 15 or email them (or take advantage of the drive-up option if given the okay) by May 18.

Those RDLCs elect delegates to the post-primary Delaware Delegate Selection Caucus (DDSC), the voting window of which is tentatively scheduled fall on July 9-13. Delegates to the DDSC will elect the 14 subdivision (district) delegates in an online vote. Finally, the national convention district delegates will then meet in the Delaware Democratic Delegate Selection Convention proposed for July 16. A quorum of those 14 delegates will select the 2 PLEO and then 5 at-large delegates to the national convention.

[The originally approved Delaware delegate selection plan called for the RDLCs to occur before April 28 as mentioned above, and for the district and statewide delegate selections to both occur on May 9 after the April 28 primary. Those in-person May 9 DDSCs would have chosen the district delegates, a quorum of which would thereafter have picked the PLEO and then at-large delegates to the national convention.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-July when the Delaware statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the early July primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NEW YORK

NEW YORK

Election type: primary
Date: June 23
    [April 28 originally]
Number of delegates: 324 [61 at-large, 29 PLEOs, 184 congressional district, 50 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (post-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

New York Democrats saw a number of changes both before and after the coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc on the Empire state. In the time since 2016 and before the calendar flipped to 2020, the New York state legislature in 2019 shifted the primary back a week from the mid-April position it held alone in 2016 to the final Tuesday in April alongside a group of five other neighboring states.

But after the coronavirus hit in earnest in March 2020 and hit especially hard in New York state, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) first pushed the primary back to June 23 and then issued an executive order requiring county elections officials to mail absentee ballot applications (with postage-paid return) to all eligible New York voters. However, days later, acting on the new powers granted it under a new provision in a budget bill signed into law, the New York State Board of Elections opted to cancel the June 23 presidential primary. [For more on the further empowerment of the Board of Elections in this scenario, see this post on the maneuvering after the cancelation.] That move was challenged in federal court. And first the district court reversed the cancelation and then the court of appeals upheld that decision, ushering back in the June 23 presidential primary.

The state did not appeal that court of appeals decision, cementing the presidential primary on June 23. Voters will now have until June 16 -- a week before the the primary -- to have their ballot requests in to county elections offices in order to receive their ballot in time for the election.

All ballots are then due to county elections offices postmarked on or before Monday, June 22, or delivered in person by election day on June 23. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in New York changed by 29 delegates from 2016 to 2020. Since the last Democratic nomination four years ago, Democrats in the Empire state added 21 district delegates, seven at-large delegates and two superdelegates. The only category of delegates to shrink since 2016 was the group of PLEO delegates that decreased by one delegate. Most of the gains came from New York having rejoined the Acela primary group of states -- originally in late April -- and tacking on a 15 percent clustering bonus from the DNC. New York was a part of the group in 2012, but went a week earlier than the rest in 2016.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
New York's 184 congressional district delegates are split across 27 congressional districts and have a variation of just two delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Empire state Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 7 delegates*
CD4 - 7 delegates*
CD5 - 8 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 7 delegates*
CD8 - 8 delegates
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 7 delegates*
CD11 - 6 delegates
CD12 - 8 delegates
CD13 - 8 delegates
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 7 delegates*
CD16 - 8 delegates
CD17 - 7 delegates*
CD18 - 6 delegates
CD19 - 6 delegates
CD20 - 7 delegates*
CD21 - 6 delegates
CD22 - 6 delegates
CD23 - 6 delegates
CD24 - 7 delegates*
CD25 - 7 delegates*
CD26 - 7 delegates*
CD27 - 6 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 184 district delegates will still be directly elected on the New York Democratic presidential primary ballot, but now that primary will take place on June 23. Similarly, the state convention -- some time in July -- will continue to be the body that selects both the PLEO and then at-large delegates. But it is noteworthy that the New York Democratic Party state convention is a state convention in name only, at least as compared to how most other states conduct state conventions. The typical state convention is comprised of a group of delegates who are selected at more local caucuses or conventions during primary season. The New York Democratic state convention is alternatively just the state central committee. In essence, then, it is a meeting of the committee rather than a convention of delegates. However, each campaign will have at least one member representing them on the nominating committee at the convention.

[Under the originally approved and compliant delegate selection plan, New York Democrats would still have directly elected their district delegates on the primary ballot. That remains the case, but that would have taken place on April 28, before the primary moved back to June. Likewise, the PLEO and at-large delegates would have been chosen at the state convention that was planned for May 12.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in July when the New York statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the late June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: KENTUCKY

KENTUCKY

Election type: primary
Date: June 23
    [May 19 originally]
Number of delegates: 60 [12 at-large, 6 PLEOs, 36 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
    [Summary of changes, post-coronavirus]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

It was a quiet time in Kentucky after 2016, at least so far as the presidential primary and other delegate selection changes (especially on the Democratic side) were concerned. There was no effort to move or break up the consolidated primary scheduled for mid-May during the period from late 2016 through 2019.

But once the coronavirus pandemic came on the scene, Kentucky, like other states, changed the plans that had been laid out well in advance. On the state government level, Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) moved the primary from the May position it has been in since the 1992 cycle to June 23. And in a deal struck with Governor Andy Beshear (D), Adams also extended absentee voting to all registered Kentuckians. Postcards indicating the new voting option were mailed to all voters and an online application was created to allow all voters to request an absentee ballot. This is similar to the changes made in neighboring Ohio. Information about the change in voting was distributed, but not either absentee voting applications nor ballots were mailed directly to voters.

All ballots are due to county elections offices on or before 6pm on Tuesday, June 23. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Kentucky changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. Over the last four years, only the district delegates decreased by one while the remaining two categories of pledged delegates and superdelegates stayed the same.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the Kentucky Democratic Party delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Kentucky's 36 congressional district delegates are split across 6 congressional districts and have a fairly wide variation of seven delegates across districts based on the measure of Democratic strength the state party is using determined by the results of the 2016 presidential and 2019 gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates
CD2 - 5 delegates*
CD3 - 10 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
CD5 - 3 delegates*
CD6 - 8 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
As it has elsewhere, the outbreak of the coronavirus has disrupted the delegate selection process in Kentucky. County/legislative district caucuses have been eliminated under the new plan and all registered Kentucky Democrats can remotely participate in the selection of district delegates. Any Kentucky Democrat can apply with the state party by June 6 to participate via Google Forms ballot in the pre-primary selection of district delegates that takes place from June 7-13. As this is a pre-primary election, delegate slates will be selected for participating candidates and delegate slots allocated on primary election day will be filled from those slates.

Both PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected by the State Executive Committee on June 27 (if the results of the June 23 primary have been certified by that time).

[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Kentucky Democrats had planned to hold post-primary county/legislative district caucuses on May 30 to select delegates to the state convention on June 6. State convention delegates broken into congressional districts were to have chosen district delegates there and the full convention would have selected the PLEO delegates. Following the conclusion of the June 6 state convention, the Kentucky Democratic Party State Executive Committee was to have selected the at-large delegates to go to the national convention from the commonwealth.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late June when the Georgia statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the late June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.