The Electoral College Map (6/20/20)

Update for June 20.

Changes (June 20)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Toss Up Biden	Strong Biden

Ask and ye shall receive, I suppose.

Yesterday a new survey of underpolled New Hampshire was added into the FHQ state polling dataset and today Minnesota got an update to the state of the presidential race as well. For two blue states that finished 2016 with Clinton and Trump basically within a point or less of each other, Minnesota and New Hampshire are -- or have been -- polled entirely to sporadically during 2020. That still basically remains the case. Both are still woefully underpolled and that has been especially true during this April-June period when Biden's advantage in the surveys out there -- both nationally and at the state level -- has widened. The picture seemed somewhat incomplete with both states shaded in toss up light blue while others around them on the Electoral College Spectrum (below) saw the gap between Biden and Trump increase.

That was true when new data was added for New Hampshire a day ago and is even more true for Minnesota today.

Polling quick hits:
Minnesota:
Gravis Marketing surveyed the Land of 10,000 Lakes on June 19 and found Biden to have a significant advantage there. When the initial question -- Biden or Trump? -- was augmented by pushed responses from undecideds on a follow up, Biden ended up with a 58-42 advantage. That was not much of a departure from the Mason-Dixon poll of the state in May when Trump pulled in a 44 percent share of support. But Biden's comparative number there shot up nearly ten points between the two polls (admittedly from two different pollsters).

But that 16 point margin grabs one's attention, especially when the only other 2020 poll out of the state showed a far more modest Biden lead. It is reminiscent of the recent polling from nearby Michigan. Yes, the Wolverine state has been polled far more than Minnesota, but both ended 2016 in a dead heat between Clinton and Trump. If margin in Michigan has stretched out from that near tie, then Minnesota likely has as well.

Nonetheless, the gap feels a bit wider than the true margin likely is in Minnesota right now. What would help clear that up? Yeah, you guessed it: some more survey work.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

What the Gravis survey of Minnesota leaves one with here at FHQ though is this: Minnesota shifts sharply toward Biden in the average, pushing out of toss up territory and all the way in the Strong Biden category. Biden's lead in Minnesota in the FHQ graduated weighted average is just a smidge over 11 points. So it is not an edge that is well into that Strong category, but it is there. That is engouh to shift Minnesota six spots on the Electoral College Spectrum (above), far deeper into the Biden coalition of states.

It was also enough to pull the state off the Watch List (below), but only just barely.

With only one new poll to add into the mix, there are only so many changes that can stem from that. And while there were some across the board in FHQ's graphics in this space, it did little to change the overall picture. Biden maintains a 352-186 lead in the electoral college projection and Florida remains the state at the tipping point in the equation. The thing for Biden now is that he claims six states beyond that tipping point and that is a nice cushion to have now or any time. But it is just June and there is still a campaign to be contested, one that Trump reenters to some extent with a rally in Oklahoma this evening.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

The Electoral College Map (6/19/20)

Update for June 19.

With 137 days until Election Day, the work week closed with a couple of new polls added to the mix in FHQ's graduated weighted averages of state-level polls in the 2020 presidential election race. It is difficult to call that a trickle when it is indicative a fairly light period of polling in the race. That will certainly change as November approaches. But for now, it is the information that is out there.

Polling quick hits:
New Hampshire:
FHQ spent the first week rolling out these electoral college updates bemoaning the fact that there was a lack of polling in a handful of states where some new data would likely prove helpful. New Hampshire was among them. And fortunately St. Anselm answered the call and not only added that data, but also clarified the picture of things in the Granite state. Well, clarified things in the Granite state relative to other states around which New Hampshire has ended up in past cycles after the dust settled following the election. And that movement is consistent with other states during this current period of the campaign: the margin in a state that favored Biden before the separate coronavirus and protests shocks has widened.

But to be clear, within pollster changes -- from one St. Anselm poll to the next -- actually saw something of a contraction in the margin. Trump's share of support remained static while Biden lost a point since the April poll. But while that was a status quo-maintaining result, it had the effect of broadening the gap between Biden and Trump in the FHQ averages in the state. Meaningfully, it pushed New Hampshire closer to "Lean Biden" territory. Granted, the bottom line is still that there has not been a great deal of polling in the Granite state in 2020. The new data helps, but more of it from a more widely dispersed group of pollsters would help more.

North Carolina:
Having logged all the calendar year 2020 state polls in a dataset over the past weekend, FHQ must confess that there were not a whole lot of Gravis polls among them. If memory serves, this may be the first state poll the firm has rolled out this year. Regardless, the new poll from the Florida-based pollster finds Trump ahead by three. However, Trump was right in that 45-47 percent range where he has more often than not been in the Tar Heel state all year. The divergent part of this survey was the Biden number; one that was well below the 47-49 percent range the former vice president has been in during the month of June in North Carolina. It was more consistent with Biden's share of support in the state in May.

And while the Gravis survey reduced the margin there, North Carolina remains tilted a little more than a point toward Biden in the FHQ averages, firmly in the toss up category.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	MI-16 (228)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	NH-4 (232)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NE CD2-1 MN-10 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

As was described above, the new data out of New Hampshire pushed the Granite state further away from the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum above and onto the Watch List below. New Hampshire now joins Minnesota and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district as states (or other jurisdictions) where the average is within a point of moving them into another category, the "Lean Biden" category in this case.

North Carolina maintained its spot among the Biden toss ups just on the other side of Ohio from the partisan line. Here at FHQ North Carolina is as much on the Biden side of the partisan line as Georgia is on Trump's side.

And it should come as no surprise that Florida kept its position as the tipping point state. There just were not enough new polls -- especially among the states that look the closest at this point -- to change that today.

Finally, while there was new data out of New Hampshire, Nevada remains underpolled and Minnesota is lacking too. It would not hurt to get an update from either in the next week.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Minnesota	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

The Electoral College Map (6/18/20)

Update for June 18.

It was a mostly quiet day on the survey front. While there were a handful of national polls showing former Vice President Biden maintaining a six to eight point lead, there was but one state-level poll released on June 18. And that Civiqs poll of Kentucky did little to alter the general outlook FHQ has point to in the initial days of this 2020 projection.

President Trump's 20 lead in the Bluegrass state may run a bit ahead of where previous polls there showed the race, but it was not something that raised the graduated weighted average margin in the state all that much. And it certainly did nothing to change the projection of Kentucky as anything but a strong state for the president. It is wedged firmly in the middle of the strong Trump states at this point in FHQ's averages.

And needless to say, a poll that did not move a strong state for either candidate, did little to change the picture on the map above. The tally stays at Biden 352, Trump 186 for the third day running. These are the slow (polling) days of late spring, and we should not necessarily expect to see either candidate's total change all that much. That is perhaps less true in some states where the overall polling is lacking and any seeming outlier could pull the average more wildly in one direction or the other. Few polls, more volatility in the averages.

That said, the expectation moving forward for the next little bit is to look for more changes within a candidate's total rather than across them. In other words, there are likely to be more category changes than changes in the electoral college vote total for the two candidates.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NH-4 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	MI-16 (228)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	NE CD2-1 MN-10 (239)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NV-6 (245)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to  Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

The one exception to that for now is Ohio. The Buckeye state is the closest state to being tied between Biden and Trump and any Trump-favorable poll could tip the balance there and shift Ohio over the partisan line into Trump's column. Georgia is the next possibility behind Ohio, but it would have to move in the opposite direction to change the overall totals. But the Peach state is tipped slightly more toward Trump now than Ohio is to Biden.

--
Florida remains the tipping point state for the second day in a row, underlining just how important those 29 electoral votes are to whichever candidate is able to claim them in November. There are more paths to 270 if one can count Florida on one side or the other than any other state. And even if it is not in the median spot among the current Biden toss ups, Florida would pull Biden over the top if the election matched the projection. All the other states would be cushion.

After adding Minnesota a day ago, the Watch List remained static today. All the states within a point of switching categories stuck in their same positions. And yet another day has passed without any additional polling of Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire, three underpolled but close states that could use some updated data.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Minnesota	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

The Electoral College Map (6/17/20)

Update for June 17.

The battleground state polls from Change Research did little to shake things up in the FHQ state averages on Wednesday. Other than Florida, the surveys in the other states -- Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- showed a tighter race than has been the case in the most recent polling in those states. But compared to the FHQ projections, given the information at this point in the race, the picture was mixed.

Yes, Biden was ahead in all six states as he is in the averages here in this space. But compared to the averages, the Change polls had the margin running ahead of the averages (wider gap) in Florida, North Carolina and barely Wisconsin and behind in Arizona and Michigan (especially given the recent double digit margins that have come out of the Wolverine state). The poll in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, was basically on par with the FHQ averages.

What does that mean?

Not much this early in the race. The map remains unchanged above, but there was some meaningful movement in the rank ordering of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Importantly, Arizona and Florida switched places around Wisconsin, changing and raising the tipping point one cell. Florida is now that tipping point state where the candidates would cross the 270 electoral vote threshold if Biden or Trump won all of the states up to and including the Sunshine state in the order.

And Florida will be pivotal throughout this campaign. With 29 electoral votes at stake, it provides a level of cushion to the candidate who can claim it relative to some of the other toss up states.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NH-4 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	MI-16 (228)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	NE CD2-1 MN-10 (239)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NV-6 (245)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Another day passes without any new information out of Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire, a trio of states where polling has been scant and unavailable in recent weeks. That is also a group of states that may appear a little closer than they actually are because of that recent relative lack of survey work in each. Movement that has been picked up in other states is not reflected in the FHQ averages, Instead, the most recent poll continues to carry full weight while older polls continue to have a decreasing influence in the equation.

In any event, those three states are worth keeping an eye on simply because any new polling may change the outlook. Two of the three remain, however, off the Watch List below. As it stands, the only two toss up states on the List are Minnesota and Ohio (as is Nebraska's second congressional district). And while Ohio jumping to its nearest adjoining category would alter the electoral vote tally, Minnesota and Nebraska's second are on the verge of pushing into safer Biden territory and contract the overall group of toss up states on both sides of the partisan line.

*Minnesota did join the Watch List today because the change in daily weight decay on older polls pushed the margin there just above four points. It is now within less than a point of moving into the Lean Biden category, but only just barely.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Minnesota	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.