The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)

New State Polls (10/18/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1028 likely voters	41	44	2	+3	+1.51
California	Survey USA	10/13-10/15	+/- 3.7%	725 likely voters	56	30	7	+26	+22.18
Colorado	Magellan	10/12-10/13	+/- 4.38%	500 likely voters	40	35	6	+5	--
Colorado	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	956 likely voters	44	37	3	+7	+4.29
Florida	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1702 likely voters	43	45	3	+2	+2.21
Georgia	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	886 likely voters	45	41	3	+4	+3.05
Indiana	Lucid/Times-Picayune	10/7-10/10	--	1123 likely voters	37	43	7	+6	+9.601
Iowa	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1135 likely voters	40	45	4	+5	+1.30
Massachusetts	MassINC/WBUR	10/13-10/15	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	54	28	6	+26	+22.09
Michigan	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1331 likely voters	45	37	3	+8	+6.62
Nevada	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	884 likely voters	40	44	2	+4	--
Nevada	Monmouth	10/14-10/17	+/-4.8%	413 likely voters	47	40	3	+7	+1.07
New Hampshire	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	569 likely voters	47	36	2	+11	+5.69
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickinson	10/12-10/16	+/-4.3%	579 likely voters	49	35	5	+14	+11.88
New Mexico	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	889 likely voters	41	33	2	+8	+7.82
North Carolina	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1191 likely voters	46	40	3	+6	+1.56
Ohio	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1307 likely voters	41	44	2	+3	+0.71
Oregon	DHM Research/OPB	10/6-10/13	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	43	36	7	+7	+9.62
Pennsylvania	Lucid/Times-Picayune	10/7-10/10	--	1457 likely voters	47	38	7	+9	--
Pennsylvania	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1449 likely voters	46	40	3	+6	+5.55
Texas	University of Houston	10/7-10/15	+/- 3.0%	1000 likely voters	38	41	13	+3	--
Texas	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1332 likely voters	42	44	3	+2	+7.11
Virginia	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1644 likely voters	49	38	2	+11	+6.51
Wisconsin	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1076 likely voters	43	38	3	+5	--
Wisconsin	St. Norbert	10/13-10/16	+/-3.8%	664 likely voters	47	39	7	+8	+6.35
1The Picayune poll in Indiana pushes the Hoosier state from the Strong Trump to Lean Trump category.

--
Changes (10/18/16)

Changes (October 18)
State	Before	After
Indiana	Strong Trump	Lean Trump

Despite all the new polling data, little changed here at FHQ. Indiana went from barely a Strong Trump state to barely a Lean Trump state. It remains on the line between the two categories based on the new data from the Picayune survey. The Hoosier state maintained its same position on the Electoral College Spectrum, but changed shades both there and on the map. That obviously changes Indiana's distinction on the Watch List. Other than that, the only other changes were Texas hopping South Carolina and Alaska in the Lean Trump area of the Spectrum toward the Toss Up category and Virginia and Wisconsin swapping spots on the Spectrum in Lean Clinton territory.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	TX-38 (154)	SD-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	AK-3 (116)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	SC-9 (113)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (190)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	MS-6 (93)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	MN-10 (200)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	UT-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	VA-13 (229)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	WI-10 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	MT-3 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10 (164)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

New State Polls (10/17/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Alaska	Lake Research	8/9-8/14	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	30	38	19	+8	--
Alaska	Lake Research	10/11-10/13	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	36	37	17	+1	+7.20
Arizona	HighGround	10/14	+/- 4.88%	400 likely voters	39	37	10	+2	+1.43
Colorado	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.7%	685 likely voters	45	37	5	+8	+4.12
Florida	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.8%	660 likely voters	48	44	4	+4	+2.31
Louisiana	JMC Analytics	7/21-7/22	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	34	49	11	+15	--
Louisiana	JMC Analytics	10/11-10/15	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	38	45	11	+7	+12.61
Nevada	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	698 likely voters	46	44	0	+2	+1.03
North Carolina	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	788 likely voters	48	47	0	+1	+1.44
Ohio	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	774 likely voters	44	48	0	+4	--
Ohio	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.9%	624 likely voters	45	45	2	+/-0	+0.81
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.8%	660 likely voters	47	41	4	+6	+5.44
Utah	Rasmussen	10/14-10/16	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	28	30	4	+2	+10.711
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.76 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah from the Strong Trump category to the Lean Trump category.

Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week brought eleven new polls from ten mostly blue toss up states. But there were a handful of narrowing red state surveys in addition to a couple of older releases in Alaska and Louisiana.

Alaska:
Like Utah, the majority of polling in Alaska in 2016 has found both candidates below 40 percent. And like Utah, recent surveys in the Last Frontier have shown a race for the state's three electoral votes that is tightening up some. In recent polls Clinton is closing in on Obama's share of support in 2012 while Trump continues to lag well behind Romney's pace there four years ago. But the New York businessman continues to lead.


Arizona:
Arizona is showing signs of becoming more like Nevada and North Carolina. Like those two Clinton toss ups, Arizona has seen a shift in the trajectory of the race since the first presidential debate at the end of September. Other than one of the head-to-head online panels, Clinton has not trailed in any polls in the Grand Canyon state since that point in the race. And it it slowly tracking toward the partisan line in the process.


Colorado:
The first debate was a turning point of sorts in Colorado as well. There has been some volatility in the Centennial state polling with a newly established post-(first)debate range of tied to Clinton +11. There have been a couple of polls on the upper end of the range, but just more than half of the eight polls released in the state since then have been more than five points in Clinton's direction -- including this new Quinnipiac poll. That has been enough to push Colorado closer to the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side.


Florida:
While Clinton is around two and a quarter points ahead in the FHQ averages in Florida, the real story there continues to be how the polls have favored the former Secretary of State in the Sunshine state. Her streak there continues with the latest Quinnipiac survey. Unless and until that changes, this one has stabilized to a degree.


Louisiana:
Although there has been some narrowing across the series of JMC Analytics polls in the Pelican state, it is comfortably red. The latest is the closest a poll has been in Louisiana since just after the conventions.


Nevada:
See Florida. The story is the same in Nevada. Clinton's run in the Silver state continues following the first debate.


North Carolina:
That is true in North Carolina as well.


Ohio:
Of all the blue toss ups only Ohio has followed a trendline different from the rest. Clinton has run off streaks of polling leads in the other four states, but the surveys released since the first debate in the Buckeye state have continue to offer mixed results, but only slightly so. The others have had in some cases some blips on the radar but no more than one. Ohio, on the other hand, has seen Clinton pull ahead in the majority of polls since the first debate, but Trump has not been without some measure of success since then. And it has been more than one drop in a bucket of Clinton leads. Meanwhile, Ohio is now the closest state in the FHQ averages but four points and four slots on the Spectrum away from the tipping point.


Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state is the picture of stability. Not only have the margins in the majority of polls in the time since the first debate been in the Lean Clinton area, but the change since the September Quinnipiac poll have been minimal. Trump held steady just above the 40 percent mark and Clinton has added a couple of points, nudging her into the upper 40s. That is where Pennsylvania is: Clinton in the mid-40s and Trump around 40. That is a lot of ground to make up in three weeks in a must have state for Trump.


Utah:
The tale in Utah is what one does not see above: Evan McMullin seemingly making the race for the Beehive state's six electoral votes a three-way race. The byproduct of Trump and McMullin splitting the usual Republican share of support in the state is that Clinton is in range with around what Obama pulled on average in the state across both 2008 and 2012.


--
The map remained steady, but the Watch List gained Colorado (within a point of shifting into the Lean Clinton category) and lost Nevada. Despite all the new data, only Alaska shifted on the Electoral College Spectrum, switching places with South Carolina. The remainder of the states held their positions in the order. That is particularly relevant in the eight toss up states where the order has solidified for the most part.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	AK-3 (154)	SD-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	SC-9 (151)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	TX-38 (142)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (190)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	MS-6 (93)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	MN-10 (200)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	UT-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	WI-10 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	MT-3 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10 (164)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.