New State Polls (10/21/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/16-10/19
|
+/-4.4%
|
507 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
5
|
+4
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/20
|
+/-4.2%
|
538 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
2
|
+4
|
+2.29
| |
Georgia
|
10/17-10/20
|
+/- 4.26%
|
839 likely voters
|
42
|
44
|
5
|
+2
|
--
| |
Georgia
|
10/20
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
47
|
5
|
+4
|
--
| |
Georgia
|
10/20
|
+/- 4.1%
|
570 likely voters
|
46
|
50
|
1
|
+4
|
+3.10
| |
Indiana
|
10/10-10/16
|
+/- 4.8%
|
544 likely voters
|
37
|
43
|
9
|
+6
|
+9.22
| |
Louisiana
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/- 4.0%
|
625 likely voters
|
34
|
54
|
9
|
+20
|
+13.50
| |
Maine
|
10/14-10/15
|
+/- 3.3%
|
890 likely voters
|
42
|
36
|
9
|
+6
|
+6.78
| |
Maine CD1
|
10/14-10/15
|
+/- 4.5%
|
469 likely voters
|
46
|
36
|
7
|
+10
|
+17.08
| |
Maine CD2
|
10/14-10/15
|
+/- 4.8%
|
420 likely voters
|
38
|
37
|
11
|
+1
|
+3.83
| |
Utah
|
10/12-10/18
|
+/- 3.97%
|
818 likely voters
|
25
|
30
|
4
|
+5
|
+9.861
| |
Virginia
|
10/16-10/19
|
+/- 3.9%
|
834 likely voters
|
45
|
33
|
5
|
+12
|
+6.81
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.25 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 29% support in the Dan Jones survey.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (10/21/16)
| Changes (October 21) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
After turning back toward Trump in late September, Georgia has changed trajectories again. Though Georgia has been in the Toss Up Trump area throughout the post-convention period, the margin had been increasing. Now the margin is narrowing, but still within the Trump group of states. Maine's second congressional district has followed a similar track. But both hold their positions.
Utah did not. Another narrow multi-way poll decreases Trump's lead over Clinton even more. And Evan McMullin has become a factor in the Beehive state. This is the third consecutive poll where the independent candidate has received between a quarter and a third of the support.
Utah, then, moves into the Lean Trump category (with some caveats) and flips on the Watch List. The List also loses the second congressional district in Maine.
Despite the change, Utah holds steady on the Electoral College Spectrum. The Lean Trump states are few in number but also spread apart from each other; a departure from some of the states in the Lean Clinton category on the other side of the partisan line. That group includes Virginia which was the biggest mover on the Spectrum. The Old Dominion jumped Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine, but remains in a cluster with those three states and Michigan in the upper six point range for Clinton.
The map saw Utah turn a lighter shade of red while the distribution of electoral college votes remained 340-198.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(154)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(116)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
MI-16
(204)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
VA-13
(217)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
ME-23
(219)
|
AZ-11
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MN-10
(229)
|
IA-6
(187)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
WI-10
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/20/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)
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