New State Polls (10/24/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/17-10/18
|
--
|
892 likely voters
|
45
|
39
|
8
|
+6
|
+2.38
| |
Georgia
|
10/17-10/18
|
--
|
807 likely voters
|
44
|
40
|
8
|
+4
|
+2.79
| |
Illinois
|
10/16-10/18
|
+/-2.83%
|
1200 likely voters
|
51
|
36
|
5
|
+15
|
+15.84
| |
North Carolina
|
10/17-10/18
|
--
|
924 likely voters
|
42
|
41
|
7
|
+1
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/21-10/22
|
+/-3.3%
|
875 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
5
|
+3
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/20-10/23
|
+/-4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
47
|
46
|
2
|
+1
|
+1.59
| |
Virginia
|
10/17-10/18
|
--
|
802 likely voters
|
43
|
38
|
8
|
+5
|
+6.75
| |
Washington
|
10/20-10/22
|
+/- 4.5%
|
502 registered voters
|
48
|
31
|
14
|
+17
|
+12.41
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
15 days left.
The new work week ushered in a slew of new polls from mostly blue states. The only exception was a Clinton-favorable survey in already pink Georgia.
Florida:
The story on the Sunshine state a day ago was that Clinton had established a foothold in the mid-40s and Trump has consistently lagged just behind in the low 40s. Although the six point advantage jumps out in the new Lucid poll, Clinton is where she has tended to be in Florida while Trump slipped into the upper 30s. This one may be an outlier -- especially compared to other southern states Lucid surveyed -- but it is not that big of one.
Georgia:
Just north in the Peach state, Lucid finds a four point Clinton lead. This one mirrors the Washington Post/Survey Monkey survey from last week, but that makes it another poll that is out of step with the majority of recent survey work in Georgia. The race has narrowed in Georgia, but it continues to favor Trump in both the FHQ averages and in the bulk of the polls conducted there.
Illinois:
The polling data are nice in the Land of Lincoln, but it only confirms Illinois' position in the order of states: Strong Clinton and in the left most column of the Electoral College Spectrum.
North Carolina:
Three more polls in North Carolina and three more narrow Clinton leads. This has been the consistent picture in the Tar Heel state since the first debate. The edge is small but durable for Clinton. Monmouth was last in the state in late August during a Clinton high point and saw little movement (mostly away from undecided/third party). The PPP survey may be more instructive. Since the last multi-way poll the Raleigh-based firm conducted there just before the first debate, there has been a five point shift toward Clinton.
Virginia:
It is hard to imagine a six point lead in Florida and a five point lead in Virginia. But that is what Lucid found in its southern swing last week when it was in the field just before the final debate. Like the Florida poll, however, this one is a study in contrasts. Trump is on the upper end of the range he has established in the Old Dominion while Clinton is just above her post-debate season low. This is polling variation and nothing more.
Washington:
See Illinois. A new poll is welcome, but it only confirms what is already known/expected of the Evergreen state: a Clinton lead.
--
Changes (10/24/16)
The only changes were subtle ones on the Electoral College Spectrum. Virginia traded spots with Maine and Washington and Rhode Island also switched places. Both moved, but neither changed categories. Importantly, while the closest states in the polls today -- Florida, Georgia and North Carolina -- held the line on the Spectrum, all inched toward Clinton.
Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
MO-10
(126)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(116)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
MI-16
(204)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
ME-23
(206)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
VA-13
(219)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MN-10
(229)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
WI-10
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
TX-38
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)
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