Showing posts with label Democratic Change Commission. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democratic Change Commission. Show all posts

Monday, August 10, 2009

Democratic Change Commission Set to Reconvene in St. Louis on August 29

On Friday, the Democratic Party announced the upcoming second meeting of its Democratic Change Commission. [The full press release is appended at the conclusion of the post.] The first meeting in June was a matter of fact-finding for the members of the group as opposed to a full-scale, reform-intensive discussion. And while new ground wasn't broken then, the next meeting on August 29 will take things one step further by incorporating the recommendations of those interested in weighing in on the presidential primary reform process.

[Click to Go to Form]

Again, this isn't anything new. We knew at the end of June that the Change Commission would be meeting again on August 29, but the public recommendation part of this meeting is an interesting way to open up the process. Granted, the party can and probably will pick and choose which suggestions are ultimately discussed. Still, this is a nice use of technology to get input from the party faithful and those interested in an altered nomination process.

Click on the form above to go to the actual form and provide suggestions of your own. The deadline for submissions is Friday August 21. The meeting is scheduled for August 29 in St. Louis.

Here at FHQ we have had a rather robust discussion concerning primary reform throughout the tenure of this blog, but if you're so inclined, include your suggestions for reform in the comments section below. We've debated the various plans on an on-again-off-again basis, but what are your personal preferences for presidential primary reform?

Hat tip to Don Means at the National Presidential Caucus for the heads up on the press release.

--------------------

August 7, 2009

Contact: Caroline Ciccone – 202-863-8148

DNC’s Democratic Change Commission Invites People From Across the Country to Submit Their Ideas for Changes to Presidential Nominating Process

To submit ideas, click on: http://www.democrats.org/page/s/changecommission

Next Meeting to Be Held in St. Louis August 29


Washington, DC—Today, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, along with Congressman James E. Clyburn (D-SC) and Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO), co-chairs of the Democratic Change Commission, invited people from across the nation to assist the Change Commission by submitting their suggestions and ideas for making changes to the presidential nominating process via the Commission’s website, http://www.democrats.org/page/s/changecommission, by Friday, August 21, 2009. These suggestions will be discussed at the next Change Commission meeting to be held Saturday, August 29, 2009 at the Crowne Plaza St. Louis-Downtown Hotel in St. Louis, Missouri.

The Democratic Change Commission was established last year and is tasked with recommending changes to the Party’s 2012 presidential nominating process. It is charged with addressing three issues: 1) changing the window of time during which primaries and caucuses may be held 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) improving the caucus system. The Commission must issue its report and recommendations to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee no later than January 1, 2010.

Chairman Kaine said, “America was founded in order to create a government that is of, for and by the people and what developed is one of the strongest democracies in history. Our election system is fundamental to the strength of our democracy and of our country as a whole. That’s why the Change Commission aims to make sure the Presidential nominating process is as inclusive as possible and why we are asking people to submit their thoughts and ideas and be a part of the process.”

Congressman Clyburn said, “As the Change Commission studies these three issues, we are interested in hearing recommendations from folks across the country. We encourage voters to submit their thoughts as we work to make the process of selecting our nominee as inclusive and accessible as possible.”

Senator McCaskill said, “In this last election, we saw an unprecedented level of involvement and interest in the Democratic Presidential Nominating Process. We hope voters will maintain their enthusiasm and help us determine how best to prepare for future elections.”

Information provided to the Commission via the website by Friday, August 21, 2009 will be distributed to the Commission members at their upcoming meeting on August 29 in St. Louis, Missouri. The meeting is open to the public and press. Details on the meeting location are below:

Next meeting of the Change Commission

Saturday, August 29, 9:30 am

Crowne Plaza St. Louis-Downtown Hotel

200 North Fourth Street

St. Louis, Missouri


------------------------

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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Did Democratic Superdelegates Write Their Own Epitaph?

That's a question I tweeted over the weekend, but would like to explore a bit more. The question finds its root in some of the comments Elaine Kamarck made at this weekend's Democratic Change Commission meeting (from ABCNews):

Touching on what may prove to be one of the more contentious issues considered by the DNC, one presenter, Democratic Party activist and Harvard University lecturer and former superdelegate Elaine Kamarck, suggested that it may be time to completely eliminate superdelegates since most of those party leaders clearly determined their role in 2008 to be one of ratifying the decision made by voters in primaries and caucuses.

"We can probably let go of the superdelegates," said Kamarck.

"Their deliberative role," she added, "has in fact been supplanted by a very very public process."


I hadn't really given this much thought before, but by following the will of the people (voting the way their constituents did), most superdelegates actually undermined their original purpose. The reason superdelegates came into being in the interim period between the 1980 and 1984 elections was to allow the party establishment an increased voice in the nomination process (something they saw as having diminished in the post-McGovern-Fraser reform era). Make no mistake, that is code for giving the party the opportunity to put a check on the decision of the people's choice. And no, that's not necessarily a bad thing. For the Democratic Party that was a strategic decision based on the prevailing conventional wisdom* of the time that primary voters are typically more extreme (or at least further to the left or right) than general election voters. It was a basic electability argument.

Regardless, superdelegates have basically served to ratify the choice of primary voters since 1984. But they operated in the shadows -- in virtual anonymity -- not triggering any controversy until their role appeared consequential to the outcome of the 2008 Democratic nomination. Their role never changed, though -- not the intended role, at least. Technically, superdelegates are/were still unpledged delegates. However, by very visibly coming out in favor of the candidates their constituents voted for in the primaries and caucuses, they (or most of the superdelegates) completely undermined their initial purpose.

And this was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. There was no exit strategy where the superdelegate system was going to emerge unchanged. Either the superdelegates were going to vote with their constituency and risk countering their intended purpose or they were going to vote against their constituents and run the risk of ripping the party in two. [Yes, there are a series of gradations in between, but one of those narratives would have emerged as the dominant theme at some point.] Politically, they made the right move for many reasons. [Not dividing the party and their own re-election prospects would have damaged in the case of the office-holding superdelegates were chief among those reasons.] In the process, though, the role of the superdelegate has likely been rewritten.

The Hunt Commission initially called for superdelegates to comprise approximately 30% of total delegates, but that number was whittled down to 14% by the time the 1984 cycle rolled around. Ever since then, there has been what Democratic Change Commission member Suzi LeVine cleverly called a "superdelegate creep" with that percentage rising as time went on. By 2008 superdelegates made up about 20% of the total number of Democratic convention delegates.

Saying that superdelegates wrote their own epitaph with their actions in 2008 is probably a bit of an overstatement. Will they be eliminated? No, because the Democratic Change Commission membership is about one-third superdelegate and the group the DCC will make recommendations to -- the Rules and Bylaws Committee -- is made up of DNC members who were also superdelegates. They won't be eliminated, but their voice in the nomination process -- the voice of the party establishment superdelegates were created to protect -- will likely be significantly diminished for the 2012 cycle and beyond.

We'll find out a little bit more about how much when the Democratic Change Commission reconvenes in late August.

*This is still being debated in various ways within the political science discipline. Early books by Crotty and Jackson (Presidential Primaries and Nominations - 1985), Marshall (Presidential Primaries in a Reform Age - 1981), Lengle (Representation and Presidential Primaries: The Democratic Party in the Post-Reform Era - 1981), Polsby (Consequences of Party Reform - 1983) and more recent articles (highlighted by McCann 1995) all describe varying levels of differentiation between primary voters and (same party) general election voters while Norrander (1989) and Geer (1988), among others, offer evidence against the ideological extremism argument.


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Sunday, June 28, 2009

The Best Inside Account of the First Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Last night I linked to Democratic Change Commission member, Suzi LeVine's, blog. She updated her already detailed account of the events that transpired yesterday with insights into the discussions (and Q&A) around each of the presentations. This is THE site (so far) to track the DCC's progress from an inside perspective.

The presentations (and comments)...

This is great stuff (...that I'm sure I'm bound to come back to later).


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Future Democratic Change Commission Meetings

Mark your calendars folks. Frank Leone, over at DemRulz, who was at yesterday's first Democratic Change Commission meeting, has the dates for remaining three meetings of the commission. Recall that the resolution that created the commission called for the group to make recommendations to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee by January 1, 2010. All of the following meetings are scheduled accordingly.

August 29 (meeting open to public comment)

October 24

December 5

The latter two are meetings to discuss and decide on proposals for recommendation.


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Winner-Take-All Democratic Primaries?

Wow!

Yes, this was an idea that made the rounds at the Democratic Change Commission meeting on Saturday. Commission member Suzi LeVine has an, and I can't stress this enough, awesome inside account of the events of the day. In terms of primary scheduling, she had this to say:
"From the sessions – one big point I took away was that having a single national primary day would not benefit our objectives – but that it’ll be very difficult without incentives to get the states to voluntarily change their dates, spread the map or move to a same day primary. Two ideas raised were: bonus delegates for later states and allow later states to do a winner take all strategy."
Bonus delegates obviously haven't worked. No state has moved back or stayed put as a means of gaining more delegates since Republicans started the practice in 2000. Those moves (or non-moves) have been a function of structural factors; most specifically whether a state traditionally holds its presidential primary concurrently with its primaries for state and local offices. That, very simply, has been a prohibitive factor.

But this winner-take-all idea is an interesting one. For the Democratic Party to even consider this is an acknowledgment of the sense of urgency behind reforming this process in some way, shape or form. The idea of allowing winner-take-all primaries is likely a hollow one though. The whole thing is predicated on there being a close contest coming down the stretch of a presidential nomination race. LeVine rightly points out that we don't know whether 2008 is the "new normal or a complete anomaly," but I strongly suspect it is the latter. And if that is the case and the nomination is wrapped up on Super Tuesday or soon thereafter, then what incentive is that to offer later states what they are going to get anyway: all their delegates going to the one remaining candidate? How is that an incentive?

"Here, move back and we'll make sure that your contest is winner-take-all. That way there will be some interest in your contest ... if there's still a race by that point. Otherwise, the few voters that show up to vote in your primary will vote for the one remaining viable candidate; our nominee."

That doesn't sound like much of an incentive. But let's assume that some nomination race down the road simulates 2008 all over again. In the event that there is another close nomination fight, though, a winner-take-all primary is an attractive incentive for states. That potentially makes a later state or group of later states into kingmakers.

Ah, but there's a catch: the states, in the case of primary states, have to change the primary dates in advance. And how do they know in advance which year's nomintation battle is going to be competitive, so they can begin the legislative process to change the date of the primary. One could argue that states acted in relative short order in 2007 to move their primaries in anticipation of 2008. They did, but that wasn't because the contest seemed like it was going to be close. Hillary Clinton had a sizable lead throughout 2007. States were motivated to move because they didn't want to get left behind in the way they were in 2004 after the Democrats opened their window (period of time in which all non-exempt contests can be held) to allow February contests. To go in March or later seemed like suicide at the time; something for divided state legislatures to quibble over.

So, as interesting as this idea is -- and it is something groundbreaking coming from Democrats -- it is another of those well-intentioned concepts riddled with unintended consequences.

Major hat tip to Matt at DemConWatch for tracking down LeVine's post on this matter.


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Saturday, June 27, 2009

DemRulz Liveblog of Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Virginia DNC member Frank Leone is liveblogging the action from the Democratic Change Commission meeting today in Washington. You can follow along at DemRulz and also have a look at the group's agenda (There are some nice graphs in there that I'll pull out and post in a little while.) there as well.

Also, Dan Balz has a story up on Washington Post's page dealing with the 2012 nomination process tinkering that will likely appear in tomorrow's Post (Note the use of the word yesterday in reference to the meeting taking place today.). It is an interesting read. You can check it out here. Importantly, he notes that Elaine Kamarck, in her presentation on superdelegates, indicated that the time was right for their (the superdelegates) elimination.

Now, some graphics on delegate allocation from the meeting's agenda notes (These are from pdfs and that explains the graininess. However, they come to us courtesy of the Democratic National Committee, so let's grant credit where credit is due.)...

1976 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


1980 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


1984 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


1988 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


1992 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


1996 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


2000 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


2004 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]


2008 Democratic Delegate Allocation
[Click to Enlarge]

So, what do we see here? It isn't that unlike the maps I have in the left sidebar. But instead of being couched in terms of how early the contests are (and those changes over time), these graphs show how a process that had a relatively even distribution of delegates throughout the window period in 1976 shifted to what we witnessed in 2008. Mainly, we see that 60% of the delegates were allocated in the first week of February with no other week breaking the 15% barrier. Of course, those numbers would have been even more lopsided in 2008 if Florida and Michigan had been included in the data. Those states would have pushed the delegates having been allocated by February 6 (the day after Super Tuesday) to over two-thirds and close three-quarters. That, folks, is the impact of frontloading in a nutshell.

For other posts related to the Democratic Change Commission, click here. And here's the progress thus far on the GOP side.


Hat tip to Matt at DemConWatch for the tip on Leone's coverage.


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Friday, June 26, 2009

On the Agenda at the Democratic Change Commission Meeting

According to First Read...

*** Wanna Be Startin’ Somethin’: Missing those daily superdelegate counts? The speculation about when states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan would hold their primaries/caucuses? Come on, admit it -- you miss it. Well, if you are, you can head over Saturday morning to the first meeting of the DNC’s Democratic Change Commission, which has been tasked with reforming 1) the primary calendar, 2) the number of superdelegates, and 3) the caucus system. Presiding over the meeting will be DNC chair Tim Kaine and commission co-chairs Jim Clyburn and Claire McCaskill, and there isn’t supposed to be any big news. The 37-member commission will listen to a presentation of Democratic Party presidential nominations by Rhodes Cook; a look at the superdelegates by Elaine Kamarck; and an examination of the caucus system by Organizing for America’s Mitch Stewart. This is all in the fact-gathering stage, but ask yourself this: How likely is it that this DNC would dramatically change a system that helped launch the president's campaign? Iowa and South Carolina are VERY safe. As for the superdelegate system, well that’s another story…
As I said earlier in the week, no decisions are going to be made tomorrow, but it is quite another thing to see how much listening the group will be doing tomorrow. That probably isn't the kind of action most people want. My hope? That the DNC posts the presentations as part of their coverage.

UPDATE: Oh, and C-SPAN's TV schedule is full in the morning tomorrow (when the meeting is going on), but C-SPAN2 still has some holes to fill. The former does have some spots in the afternoon to run a rebroadcast if they get some cameras out there.


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Thursday, June 25, 2009

DNC to Provide Coverage of Democratic Change Commission Meeting on Saturday

From the Democratic Party's web site:

Introducing the Democratic Change Commission

The Democratic Change Commission will be having their first meeting, open to the public, on Saturday June 27th in Washington, DC. We will provide highlights of the meeting here on the blog.

Following the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses of the 2008 presidential nominating campaign the Democratic National Convention Rules Committee, at the request of then Senator Obama, drafted a resolution calling for a commission to review and recommend changes to the 2012 nominating process. That was adopted on August 25, 2008 by the full Democratic National Convention and thus created the Democratic Change Commission.

The first part of the resolution outlines the structure and purpose of the Commission. According to the resolution, the DNC Chair has to appoint 35 members, who must represent the diversity in our Party, to sit on the Change Earlier this year Chairman Kaine announced the 37 Commission members, including two co-chairs. These members are grassroots activists, local and federal elected officials, labor leaders and a wide range of other backgrounds. Here is a full list of the commission members and their biographical information. We will be introducing several members from the Commission throughout our coverage of the Commission's work. We welcome questions you would like to ask them and we will try to present several of the top ones during upcoming interviews.

The resolution's next sections outline the areas the commission will be charged with improving. The first area the Commission must review is the nominating calendar, the scheduling and sequence of presidential nominating events (primaries and caucuses). The Commission is charged with making recommendations to significantly reduce the number of unpledged delegates (also know as super delegates). Finally the Commission must consider ways to improve caucuses to increase the ability of Democratic voters to participate.

During the 2008 nominating process the Democratic Party was able to bring its ideas and messages for improving government to every state in the country. We were able to reach new voters and engage many long time voters. This success was critical to our victory this past November. We learned a lot from the nominating process and believe through improvements we will be able to continue to reach new Americans and build on our success.

We look forward to providing you access and coverage of the work of the Commission. If you have questions please share them in the comments.



Good to know. Plus, with the meeting being open to the public, I can't imagine a scenario where C-SPAN doesn't cover it in some way. As of now though, the network's Saturday schedule isn't really up yet.


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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The Group That Might Change It All? A Closer Look at the Democratic Change Commission's Membership

Earlier today in a post about the Democratic Change Commission's first meeting -- set to take place this weekend -- I set myself the goal of finding out how many superdelegates from 2008 were among the group's members. The logic there is that if the group is made up entirely of former superdelegates, then the likelihood of that portion of the nomination equation being changed drops significantly. But there are three points on the commission's to-do list. Let's look at them again and then examine how the members' backgrounds may influence the commission's ultimate recommendation to the DNC:
  1. The window of time in which presidential nomination contests are held
  2. The impact of superdelegates
  3. The caucus system
So, if superdelegates comprise a majority of the group, that [hypothetically] negatively affects the chances of that issue being meaningfully reformed. And that logic holds for the other two issues as well. If caucus states are overrepresented on the commission relative to primary states, that affects action on the system of caucusing. Also, if earlier states are represented in higher proportion on the commission, they may be more likely to protect the status quo.

Before we turn to the numbers, let's revisit my back-of-the-napkin analysis from when the commission was named in March.

The Membership

My first inclination is to look not at who specifically these 37 commission members are, but to focus on where they are from and what that says about the group collectively. Let's look at it by the numbers:
  • 37 members (2 co-chairs and 35 members)
  • Representing 26 states (plus DC, Puerto Rico and the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe)
  • 7 members are from 7 red states
  • 24 members from 19 blue states (and four more from DC)
  • Of the 15 states within ten points in the presidential election, 13 are represented on the commission (only Indiana and North Dakota are excluded)
  • All of the January 2008 Democratic contest states are represented (Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida)
Now, what does any of that have to do with the changes this commission may bring about? Well, it has a "take care of your own" feel to it. The membership hails from the Obama coalition of states and of those outside that coalition, most are states that were within ten points last November. These states won't necessarily have privileged positions on the 2012 calendar but they will be represented on the commission. Part of the Obama success story was primary season organizational efforts that paid dividends in the general election. The flip side here is that the membership isn't a reflection of future goals (in terms of states to target), but represent states where those organizational efforts were the strongest/most vital.
First, let's augment this with a look at the caucus states representatives on the Democratic Change Commission (DCC). Of course, we should probably start this by noting that proportionally there are far fewer caucus states than primary states. About a quarter of the states (12) held Democratic caucuses in 2008. On the DCC, six of the members are from caucus states and that amounts to just under a sixth of the total membership.

Prognosis: The likelihood of some change to the caucus system -- uniforming the process across caucus states, for example -- actually has few obstacles.

How about superdelegates? How many former supers are on the DCC? From the 2008 cycle, 12 former superdelegates are among the members of the commission and that is roughly a third of the membership. However, just because there are a fair number of superdelegates on the commission doesn't necessarily mean that they'll stand in the way of some change to the superdelegate formula.

Prognosis: Perhaps less likely than a change to the caucuses, but the chances for change are not bad on the whole.

And primary/caucus timing? It'll never happen. Frontloading is here to stay. I'm kidding, but when you look at the numbers there may be a significant obstacle here. This, after all, is the most difficult plank on this three-pronged platform to change. How can we quantify this, though. For our purposes, I'll look at DCC members from states that held contests prior to March. [Yes, I know. That's over half the country.] And there are 28 members from pre-March states out of the 37 person group. That's quite a few. But the obstacle theory doesn't necessarily hold here. If all or most states are already early, as they were in 2008, those early states are more likely to be amenable to just moving everything back a month if no one is better or worse off for the move. Texas and Ohio and the other handful of March states get something of a boost (Well, that's debateable given the likely March logjam. But it isn't a given that at 2012 or 2016 race would play out and last as long as the race in 2008.) and all those February states just shift back a month. Basically, things would, on the Democratic side, revert to their pre-2004 levels.

However, we could also see members complain about the difficulty of pushing such a shift through unreceptive (read: Republican-controlled) legislatures. In other words, state legislators wanting their constituents -- the Republican ones at least -- to have an influence over the 2012 Republican nomination would basically thumb their noses at the Democratic rules if they asked for there to be such a February to March shift. In fact, such legislators may even see that as an opportunity to keep their state in a less crowded, more advantageous position on the calendar.

One final thing we can look at here is how pre-2008 February states are represented on the committee. By this logic, new early state's in 2008 may be more willing to go back to the way things were with the 2004 calendar. This seems less likely now that I'm typing this out, but I've got the numbers and I'll go ahead and share them. Instead of 28 members from pre-March states, there are only 16 (a little less than half) that were from pre-March states in 2004.

Prognosis: There are a lot of early states represented on this commission and that may or may not bode well for some reform on this particular aspect of the group's plan. However, this group was handpicked (possibly making the above numbers moot), so if they desire to make a change -- like the February to March shift -- then they are likely to be able to push it through. But they'll have to tackle the issue of the problems that could create with the RNC. There have been some contacts kept between the parties on this, but without bipartisan action, it is unlikely that we'll see any sweeping reform to the system.


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Democratic Change Commission Meeting This Weekend

According to this article in the Helena Independent Record, Montana secretary of state, Linda McCulloch, is off to Washington for a meeting of the Democratic Change Commission. The commission was formed to examine three things:
  1. The window of time in which presidential nomination contests are held. [This is where frontloading would be a part of the broader discussion.]
  2. The impact of superdelegates
  3. The caucus system
None of the problems will be fixed this weekend and may not be by the summer of 2010 when recommendations are likely to start emerging. But this is a starting point nonetheless.

McCulloch departs for Washington with some fairly specific ideas.

On Montana's position in 2008 and before:
“Last time, Montana was a player,” McCulloch said, “Now that we’ve been a player, I want to see it continue.”

McCulloch questioned the fairness of having some states holding their primaries and caucuses first every year, referring to New Hampshire and Iowa, and others holding their elections last, as Montana does.
[Montana did try unsuccessfully to move its 2008 presidential primary into February or March. The bill, coincidentally enough, would have given the secretary of state the power to set the date of the state's primary in either of those earlier months. After passing the House in the state legislature, though, the bill died in committee in the Senate. It should be noted that she was not secretary of state at the time. Montana Republicans, in fact, held a caucus and held it on Super Tuesday. But...]

On caucuses:
McCulloch said she prefers primary elections to caucuses in presidential races.

“I’m not a big fan of the caucus procedure, because it includes a few people rather than all the people,” she said. “My focus is to make sure more people vote, more people participate.”
[So, it would appear that circumventing the state legislature by holding a caucus -- as Montana Republicans did in 2008 -- is not the secretary of state's preferred method of dealing with this. It is good way to avoid the partisanship problems that tend to plague state legislatures attempting to shift their presidential primaries, however.]

And on superdelegates...
She’s also not wild about designating top party officials, senators, congressmen and governors as “superdelegates” by virtue of the positions. They automatically become delegates at the national convention.

“It goes against the grain of my belief that everyone should have an equal vote and be equal,” McCulloch said. “In voting, everyone is equal. Everyone is a superdelegate.”
[I need to look at how many former superdelegates are on the Demcratic Change Commission.]

With 37 members, there are going to be a fair number of opinions on what to do about any or all of the three issues above. The process starts Saturday and this will continue to be something to track as we move into a midterm election year next year.


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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Republicans and Democrats to Work Together to Prevent Frontloading/National Primary?

With the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee slated to meet next week to begin its discussions on altering the presidential primary calendar for 2012, The Hill is reporting that a new ally in the effort has emerged. New Hampshire Democrat and Democratic Change Commission member, James Roosevelt has been in contact with several members of the Republican committee about ways in which the two parties can work together to head off the problems with the perceived inevitability of a national primary (de facto or not) in 2012 and/or beyond.

And this appears to come through in some of the comments from the story:
“If we don’t try to coordinate, [the primary process] just keeps leapfrogging into the previous year,” Roosevelt added.
“If we don’t do it now, we’re not going to get another chance,” Bennett warned.
One thing we can glean from this is that way the 2008 calendar played out added a sense of urgency to the issue of frontloading; enough of a sense that the parties have realized that time is short and that they are potentially willing to work together to avoid the worst case scenario. And that's a fairly significant step.

Oh, and a hat tip to Don Means over at the National Presidential Caucus for the link to The Hill article.


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Monday, March 23, 2009

2012 Primaries: Democratic Change Commission Named

And here I thought the GOP would be the first to move on the issues attendant to the presidential primary system.
"Today, Governor Tim Kaine, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, announced the 37 member Democratic Change Commission, which will recommend changes to the Democratic Party's rules for the 2012 presidential nominating and delegate selection process. Governor Kaine also announced that he has named Congressman James Clyburn of South Carolina and Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri as Co-Chairs of the Change Commission."
Now, this is significant news, but first let's look a bit more closely at the intent of the Commission and then I'll give my rapid fire thoughts on the commission's membership.
"The Democratic Change Commission will address three issues: 1) changing the window of time during which primaries and caucuses may be held 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) improving the caucus system."
The Intent

No, those don't sound like the sweeping changes that some people would like to see come to the presidential nomination system. [And for the record, I am an impartial observer here. Despite the name of this blog, that is not the system I prefer; only the one I study. But I have a research niche carved out whether change comes or not. And if you've read FHQ at all, you know that we think a national primary is the most likely system to emerge. That doesn't mean another system won't emerge, but because of the barriers that exist, a national primary is the most likely outcome.]

First, changing the window means that the February experiment is over in the minds of some within the party. That's code for, "Let's move the starting point back to March." And there's a lot of talk out there about March being a good starting point. Most of that finds its root in any of the reform regimes that represent the most upheaval to the system (NASS rotating regional primary, Ohio Plan, American Plan, etc.). That, however, would set up quite a few potential showdowns with compliant-turned-rogue states (States that are compliant in February under the current rules, but would be in violation is the window were closed and did not include February.). For example, without some coordination with the Republican Party, the Democratic Party faces the possibility of having quite a few states (those in Republican control) not comply with any such effort to scale back the starting point of the window.

Take my current home state of Georgia. Here's a state that finds both the governor's mansion and the General Assembly in GOP control. Now, are they really going to be inclined to move just because the Democratic Party says so (assuming the GOP holds pat on their own rules)? I doubt it. And Georgia isn't an isolated case here. Of the states holding primaries before March in 2008, Florida, South Carolina (which will likely be exempt anyway) and Tennessee all are in the same position. And Arizona's governor (now Republican after Janet Napolitano vacated to be Homeland Security Secretary) has proclamation power to move the state's contest earlier if the final week in February is not early enough for the Grand Canyon state to be consequential in the process. Add to that the very likely possibility that Oklahoma's next governor will be Republican and you have quite a few potential partisan rogues.

This first point, then, seems like it could be messy.

The second and third points will be talked about, but are more remnants of the unique 2008 primary season than anything. As was the case initially with primary reform in Republican Party during last summer's convention in St. Paul, the winning candidates rarely sanction the change of a system that brought about their nomination. The GOP for the first time created a loophole (allowing for rules to be set outside of the confines of the convention), but Barack Obama is the head of the Democratic Party and these latter two goals of the commission are among the chief reasons he received the Democratic nomination. Now, that isn't to say that some measure of reform in the areas of superdelegates and caucuses won't come to pass, just that it is less likely. Regardless, it is probable that there will be some scaling back of the number of superdelegates and there may be some incentivizing structure discussed to get some caucus states to shift to being primary states. On the latter point, though, the economy will have a large say in whether that happens. Primaries are the much more expensive route. There is a balance, then, that has to be discovered between the inclusiveness of a primary system versus the price tag of (not to mention the control state parties have over) the caucus system.

The Membership

My first inclination is to look not at who specifically these 37 commission members are, but to focus on where they are from and what that says about the group collectively. Let's look at it by the numbers:
  • 37 members (2 co-chairs and 35 members)
  • Representing 26 states (plus DC, Puerto Rico and the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe)
  • 7 members are from 7 red states
  • 24 members from 19 blue states (and four more from DC)
  • Of the 15 states within ten points in the presidential election, 13 are represented on the commission (only Indiana and North Dakota are excluded)
  • All of the January 2008 Democratic contest states are represented (Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida)
Now, what does any of that have to do with the changes this commission may bring about? Well, it has a "take care of your own" feel to it. The membership hails from the Obama coalition of states and of those outside that coalition, most are states that were within ten points last November. These states won't necessarily have privileged positions on the 2012 calendar but they will be represented on the commission. Part of the Obama success story was primary season organizational efforts that paid dividends in the general election. The flip side here is that the membership isn't a reflection of future goals (in terms of states to target), but represent states where those organizational efforts were the strongest/most vital.

Regardless, the ball is rolling now from the parties' perspective and not just at the state government level.

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Full Press Release:

WASHINGTON, March 23 -- Today, Governor Tim Kaine, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, announced the 37 member Democratic Change Commission, which will recommend changes to the Democratic Party's rules for the 2012 presidential nominating and delegate selection process. Governor Kaine also announced that he has named Congressman James Clyburn of South Carolina and Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri as Co-Chairs of the Change Commission.

"This Commission will focus on reform that improves the presidential nominating process to put voters first and ensure that as many people as possible can participate," said Kaine. "I want to thank all the members of the Commission who have agreed to serve, including Congressman Clyburn and Senator McCaskill who have graciously agreed to serve as co-chairs."

Governor Kaine went on to say that he hopes to work with the Republican National Committee on a common approach that puts voters first.

President Obama first announced his intention to form the Democratic Change Commission in August 2008, during his presidential campaign. Delegates to the Democratic National Convention adopted President Obama's proposal on Monday, August 25, 2008.

The Democratic Change Commission will address three issues: 1) changing the window of time during which primaries and caucuses may be held 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) improving the caucus system. A copy of the convention resolution establishing the Commission is below. The Commission must issue its report and recommendations to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee no later than January 1, 2010.

The Commission is made up of 35 members and two co-chairs and represents a diverse mix of DNC members, elected officials, representatives of State Parties, academics, labor, business, grassroots activists and other Party leaders. A complete list of the Commission's members is below.

Co-Chairs:

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Congressman Jim Clyburn

Columbia, South Carolina

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Senator Claire McCaskill

St. Louis, Missouri

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Commission Members:

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Grassroots Activist Jeremy Alters

Miami, Florida

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Political Strategist Jeff Berman

Washington, DC

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Grassroots Activist Ashley Bliss

Atlanta, Georgia

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State Representative Dan Blue

Raleigh, North Carolina

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Political Strategist Bill Carrick

Los Angeles, California

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Mayor Michael Coleman

Columbus, Ohio

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Political Strategist Jeff Forbes

Washington, DC

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Grassroots Activist Joan Garry

Montclair, New Jersey

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State Chair Larry Gates

Overland Park, Kansas

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School Board Member Adelita Grijalva

Tucson, Arizona

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Professor Rob Hampshire

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

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Former State Chair Ned Helms

Concord, New Hampshire

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Former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman

McLean, Virginia

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Chairman Ron His Horse Is Thunder

Standing Rock Sioux Tribe

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IBT President James Hoffa

Detroit, Michigan

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Grassroots Activist Roseanne Hope

Minneapolis, Minnesota

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State Senator Steven Horsford

Las Vegas, Nevada

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Grassroots Activist Suzie LeVine

Seattle, Washington

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UAW CAP Director Dick Long

Detroit, Michigan

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Grassroots Activist Andres Lopez

San Juan, Puerto Rico

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Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid

Albuquerque, New Mexico

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DNC Member Debbie Marquez

Edwards, Colorado

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State Senator Iris Martinez

Chicago, Illinois

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Delegate Jennifer McClellan

Richmond, Virginia

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Secretary of State Linda McCulloch

Helena, Montana

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Attorney General Tom Miller

Des Moines, Iowa

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DNC Member Minyon Moore

Washington, DC

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Grassroots Activist Sunah Park

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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Campaign Manager David Plouffe

Washington, DC

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Grassroots Activist Rebecca Prozan

San Francisco, California

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DNC Member James Roosevelt, Jr

Cambridge, Massachusetts

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Congresswoman Linda Sanchez

Lakewood, California

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AFT President Randi Weingarten

New York City, New York

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State Chair Meredith Wood Smith

Portland, Oregon

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Grassroots Activist Martin Yeung

Rapid City, South Dakota

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Resolution Establishing the Democratic Change Commission

(This resolution was recommended by the 2008 Convention Rules Committee at its August 23, 2008 meeting and adopted by the 2008 Democratic National Convention on August 25, 2008 in Denver, Colorado)

Section 1. Establishment of Democratic Change Commission.

BE IT RESOLVED: That no later than 60 days after the date of the next election of the National Chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the National Chair shall establish a commission (the "Commission") to review the Delegate Selection Rules in light of developments during the 2008 presidential nominating cycle and to recommend changes to the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2012 Democratic National Convention, not inconsistent with these resolutions, to improve the nominating process.

RESOLVED FURTHER: That the Commission shall be known as the "Democratic Change Commission;" that it shall consist of 35 members and two co-chairs, all with the right to vote on Commission business, appointed by the National Chair of the DNC; that its membership shall be equally divided between men and women and shall be geographically and demographically diverse; that the DNC shall provide the Commission with adequate staff and resources to carry out its mandate in accordance with this Resolution; and that the Commission shall issue its report and recommendations to the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC no later than January 1, 2010.

Section 2. Timing of the Primaries and Caucuses.

RESOLVED FURTHER: That the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2012 Convention shall provide that no meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) shall be held prior to the first Tuesday in March of the election year, except as otherwise provided in the Delegate Selection Rules and recognizing the valuable role played by the approved pre-Window states in 2008; and provided that no such meeting, caucus, convention or primary shall in any event be held prior to February 1 of the calendar year of the National Convention; and that the Commission also shall review the sequence and scheduling of primaries and caucuses with a view towards reducing the scheduling of such events on the first allowable date that resulted in 22 primaries and caucuses being held on such date in 2008 and toward reducing frontloading within the Window period; and that the Commission shall review the rules for proper enforcement of the primary and caucus timing requirements and delegate allocation matters, particularly with respect to action by the Rules and Bylaws Committee; and that in making its recommendations, the Commission consider any revision of the Rules of the Republican Party of the United States adopted by the 2008 Republican National Convention regarding the scheduling and sequence of presidential nominating events.

Section 3. Delegates.

RESOLVED FURTHER: That the Commission shall consider and make appropriate recommendations for revisions to the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2012 Democratic National Convention to provide for a significant reduction of the number of unpledged party leader and elected official (PLEO) delegates in order to enlarge the role and influence of primary and caucus voters in the presidential nominating process. The Commission also shall review the formulas for delegate allocation to assure that delegates are fairly allocated to accurately reflect the will of the voters and that the right of the delegates to reflect the sentiments of those who elected them shall be secured to all delegates.

Section 4. Caucuses.

RESOLVED FURTHER: That the Commission shall consider and recommend appropriate revisions to the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2012 Democratic National Convention to provide that:

a. the use of a caucus/convention system for any stage of the delegate selection process by any State Democratic Party shall be approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee in accordance with any new specific criteria to be set out in the Delegate Selection Rules, and which will be designed to ensure that at each stage, any caucus or convention will be adequately planned, organized, and staffed; will take place at such times and in such locations as will meet the requirements of Rule 3 of the Delegate Selection Rules and will otherwise maximize the opportunity for full participation by Democratic voters; will be run using appropriate balloting methods and, as to tiers following the first stage caucus, will utilize accurate lists of participants; and will afford the opportunity for meaningful communication of presidential candidates with their pledged caucus participants reasonably in advance of caucuses and conventions.

b. the use of a caucus/convention system for any stage of the delegate selection process should be organized in a manner that will ensure the maximum ability of Democratic voters to feasibly participate in the first-tier caucuses, including consideration of absentee voting in caucuses to benefit those who cannot attend a scheduled caucus due to military service, work, health conditions, family obligations and other similar reasons that prevent attendance in person.

Section 5. Status of Resolutions

RESOLVED FURTHER: That the Commission may address other matters related to the presidential nominating process and Delegate Selection Rules as may be identified by the National Chair of the Democratic National Committee, and that for the purposes of Article Ten, Section 2 of the Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States, these resolutions shall be deemed to be "otherwise designated."


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