Showing posts with label Connecticut. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Connecticut. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/23/12)

On a day when there was seemingly more interest in the national polls that were released, there were slim pickings on the state level. Actually, come to think of it, it may have been that there wasn't exactly a who's who of toss up states represented in the scant few state polls released on Tuesday. Much of that had to do with the Monday night debate. Most firms with the exception of ARG were in and out of the field prior to Monday, setting baselines before the foreign policy debate from Boca Raton.

ARG, however, had a couple of toss up state surveys in the field in Nevada and New Hampshire that spanned the weekend and into debate day on Monday. Outside of those two surveys, we got some confirming data from North Dakota and some recalibrating data from Connecticut and Minnesota.

New State Polls (10/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
10/19-10/21
+/- 4.2%
575 likely voters
53
40
4
+13
+11.70
Connecticut
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
45
2
+7
--
Minnesota
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
51
46
1
+5
+8.35
Nevada
10/19-10/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.16
New Hampshire
10/19-10/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
49
3
+2
+3.51
North Dakota
10/12-10/15
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
32
57
--
+25
+16.37
North Dakota
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
40
54
4
+14
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
The Survey USA poll of the Nutmeg state was the firm's first venture into the state this year. The results were not inconsistent with what we have seen from other pollsters. Connecticut is a blue state that has provided the president with a lead in the low teens throughout much of 2012. One of the exceptions to that rule has been Rasmussen and poll-over-poll, this latest survey was a near replica of the one conducted just after the Denver debate. Romney held steady with a share of support higher than in most other polls of the state and Obama gained a point. There really isn't that much to see here.

Minnesota:
Now, in Minnesota that may be a different story. The Obama +5 margin is as tight as any independent poll that has been in the field in the Land of 10,000 Lakes this year. But it stands to reason that Minnesota would draw closer in a way similar to what we have witnessed in the other Lean Obama states of late. The problem from the Romney perspective, as is the case in the other states in its category, is that Obama has consistently been over 50% there and the governor is lagging pretty far behind. The issue on the president's side is that the low end of the range of polling margins in the state may be just five points. Again, it is reasonable to conclude that Minnesota has narrowed some, but this one is perhaps a sign of other similar data to come, but an outlier until that end of the range is confirmed elsewhere.

Nevada:
ARG last surveyed the Silver state back before the first debate and found the president up by seven points. That has been whittled down to two in the latest ARG poll in the state. Obama is down a couple of points since then and Romney is up three. This one really is quite consistent with the polling conducted since the first debate in Nevada. It is right on in terms of the president's share of support compared to both the FHQ weighted average and the raw average of post-debate data. The Romney number, however, runs a little ahead of both of those metrics.

New Hampshire:
The ARG picture in the Granite state is slightly different than in Nevada. First, Romney is in the lead for the second consecutive poll from the firm. But secondly, that edge has contracted since the last survey. Obama gained a point at Romney's expense, cutting a four point lead a week after the first debate in half now. Of course, that is mostly just statistical noise, but ARG is showing a wider Romney advantage in the state where most other pollsters are not. For the most part, the polling in New Hampshire since October 3 has shown a race that is either tied or a one point lead for either candidate.

North Dakota:
Ah, North Dakota. There just hasn't been that much out of the Peace Garden state in the way of polling this year, but the data that has emerged has been clear in showing Mitt Romney in the mid-50s and Obama well back in the upper 30s. If you take the two releases from today and average them, well, that's what you get: Romney in the mid-50s and Obama in the upper 30s. It's a red state, folks.


FHQ will spare you here. Importantly, the new information in Nevada and New Hampshire did little to uproot them from their current positions either on the periphery of or within the Toss Up Obama category. Of the rest, none obviously switched categories since the map is the same as it was yesterday and has been now for several days. On the Spectrum, only North Dakota moved, jumping into the far right column deep within the Strong Romney group of states.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
TX-38
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
WV-5
(74)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
LA-8
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire all had new polls released, but none of them affected the states' previous Watch List distinctions. It was a light polling day and thus a status quo sort of day in terms of the averages and where they have the states currently positioned in the rank ordering.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 1 comments
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Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/18/12)

Thursday's polling data brought forth a handful of surveys that were in the field following the town hall presidential debate in Hempstead. Overall, though, the evidence thus far is that we are still in a wait and see mode in terms of the impact the second debate -- if any -- had on the direction of the 2012 general election. As we have alluded to here in the past, the polls in the time before the first debate had already started to take a slight turn toward Mitt Romney; a turn that was exacerbated by that debate. There are a couple of ways of looking at that and what happened (or will happen) next. One view is that the first debate turned things off and that the vice presidential (and perhaps now the second presidential) debate slowed that trend down and triggered the leveling off that we have seen. The opposing view is that the first debate merely sped up something that was underway already: a return to the fundamentals of the race. In other words, the race was bound to return to the Holbrookian equilibrium of the race where the president -- based on the economy and presidential approval (among other factors) -- held a small advantage in the race. That has been borne out in the polls. The race has narrowed, but the president continues to hold small but consistent leads in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

Have some states slipped away? Yes and no. North Carolina has been consistently in Mitt Romney's column all along, and seems to be close but realistically off the table now. Florida, Colorado and Virginia, too, have moved toward Romney and in a way that tips slightly toward the governor, but are still competitive. And that movement toward Romney is true in other states as well, but not to the same extent. Those states (Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire among them) are similar to the three above, but (slightly) favor the president.

All told, there were 13 new polls from 10 states on Thursday.

New State Polls (10/18/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/16-10/18
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
+1.78
Connecticut
10/11-10/16
+/- 4.0%
574 likely voters
51
37
--
+14
+11.97
Connecticut
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.1%
1015 likely voters
53
44
3
+9
--
Iowa
10/15-10/17
+/- 2.9%
1392 likely voters
51
43
4
+8
+3.15
Michigan
10/9-10/10
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
44
41
13
+3
+5.78
Michigan
10/17
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
52
46
2
+6
--
Minnesota
10/12-10/14
+/- 4.3%
550 likely voters
50
40
6
+10
+8.72
North Carolina
10/17
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
46
52
1
+6
+1.45
Ohio
10/12-10/15
+/- 4.0%
613 likely voters
45
42
9
+3
+3.41
Ohio
10/17
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
49
48
2
+1
--
Virginia
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.6%
733 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
+2.48
Washington
10/1-10/16
+/- 3.9%
782 likely voters
52
43
3
+9
+13.22
Wisconsin
10/15-10/17
+/- 3.1%
1295 likely voters
51
45
3
+6
+4.94

Polling Quick Hits:
[Today, FHQ will truly make these quick hits.]

Colorado:
Since the last PPP survey of the Centennial state in late September, Romney has gained a couple of points and Obama has lost one. Compared to the FHQ averages, this survey overstates Obama's share some, and is within range of the Romney share.

Connecticut:
There may be a single digit lead in one of these surveys, but the picture is still clear in the Nutmeg state. It is blue and is out of reach to Romney given the information to which we have access.

Iowa:
At this late stage of the race, any poll that shows a margin outside of about 4-5 points of the FHQ weighted average margin in a given state is probably an outlier. The Marist survey out of Iowa this evening seems to fit that bill at Obama +8. The president may have the advantage there, but it likely is not in the upper single digits.

Michigan:
The two polls released today hover nicely around the FHQ weighted average; one on the low side and one on the high side. The Great Lakes state seems to be out of range for Romney in the same way that North Carolina is out of reach for the president. Achievable if something very uncharacteristic occurs, but realistically off the table.

Minnesota:
Minnesota has slipped into and settled at a spot just under the Strong/Lean line on the Obama side of the partisan line. The Survey USA poll today did little to change that. In fact, the numbers matched the firm's last -- early September -- survey in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

North Carolina:
The lead seems to have stretched for Romney some in the Tarheel state, but perhaps not to the level reflected in this Rasmussen poll. Romney is up one and Obama down two since the pollster's previous survey conducted in North Carolina. The Romney +3 in the earlier poll seems about right.

Ohio:
The key in Ohio moving forward is not the size of the lead -- it's close and will continue to be -- but who is ahead. And Obama continues to lead Romney in surveys of the Buckeye state. Today's two polls seemingly set a pretty accurate range: 1-3 points with an occasional Romney lead of +1 thrown in for good measure.

Virginia:
See Ohio, but in reverse. Romney is the one with post-debate leads in the 1-3 point range with Obama contributing a +1 margin in the Old Dominion here and there.

Washington:
Another single digit lead for the president, but one that does not bring the Evergreen state into range for Romney. Washington is part of a group that includes Connecticut above as well as New Jersey and New Mexico; states clustering around the Strong/Lean Obama line.

Wisconsin:
See Iowa, but perhaps not to as great an extent. This poll is within range of the FHQ weighted average -- a little high nonetheless -- and is not like the Marist poll of Iowa; nearly five points out. This one doesn't fit with the other post-debate polling in the Badger state though.


Both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged today. Increasingly the race is about the president's ability to keep things close in Virginia, Colorado and Florida and the Romney campaign's ability to do likewise in the Wisconsin-Iowa group of states below.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Shifting to the Watch List, things are only slightly different than yesterday. On the strength of the outlier from Marist, Iowa is now back on the list; within a fraction of a point of moving into the Lean Obama category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/17/12)

Last night's debate may ultimately move the polls in some way, shape or form, but we won't start seeing that today. And even if we did, this group of states in which new polling data was made available may not be the best collection to demonstrate such a shift. Of the 12 new surveys from eight states, seven of them are from states that to this point have been strongly in favor of either Obama or Romney. And while that doesn't preclude some sort of movement in those states -- as an extension of an overall national shift toward Romney, for instance -- there isn't a whole lot in the data to suggest such a shift. Not a whole lot, mind you, but some.

Let's have a look:

New State Polls (10/17/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
10/4-10/14
+/- 4.2%
552 registered voters
53
38
7
+15
+11.87
Massachusetts
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.9%
709 likely voters
57
39
4
+18
+20.02
Montana
10/14
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
45
53
1
+8
+9.26
Montana
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.5%
806 likely voters
43
53
4
+10
--
Nevada
10/11-10/15
+/- 3.5%
806 registered voters
48
45
3
+3
+4.04
Nevada
10/15
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
50
47
1
+3
--
Nevada
10/15-10/16
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
50
43
4
+7
--
New Hampshire
10/15
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
50
49
1
+1
+3.77
New Jersey
10/10-10/14
+/- 3.5%
783 likely voters
48.4
41.4
--
+7
+12.21
Washington
10/14
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
55
42
1
+13
+13.26
Washington
10/15-10/16
+/- -.-%
574 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
--
Wisconsin
10/11-10/14
+/- 3.4%
870 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
+4.93

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
This is the first time Siena has been in the field in the Nutmeg state in 2012, and the numbers were consistent with other surveys of the state in terms of the president's numbers. However, it did understate Romney's share of support relative both to recent polling and the FHQ weighted average of the governor's share of support overall. At the end of the day, polling in the late summer hinted at a tighter than expected race in Connecticut, but the margin stretched out in the time since and hasn't contracted all that much in the time since the first presidential debate in Denver.

Massachusetts:
PPP was in the field in the Bay state just a few days ago and the climate there has not changed all that much in that period of time. There was a net two point shift in the president's direction in a state that is going to tip blue anyway.

Montana:
PPP and Rasmussen really could not have made a better case for the FHQ weighted average in the Treasure state. Montana is currently huddled close to the line between the Lean Romney and Strong Romney states and both surveys mimicked such a breakdown; one falling on each side of that (admittedly rather arbitrary) line. Like Connecticut and Massachusetts is firmly within one candidate's column. But in this case, it is in Romney's direction.

Nevada:
Changes (October 17)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up ObamaLean Obama
Don't get too wrapped up in the change over for Nevada. After slipping into the Toss Up Obama category a couple of days ago, Nevada is back in the Lean Obama range. That is more a function of the collection of new polls there today and the fact that the Silver state was precariously positioned just -- and I mean just -- on the Toss Up side of the line between the two categories. It is worth mentioning that there were some rather large blips on the radar in Obama's direction before the first debate, but on the whole, most of the margins there fell in the 3-7 point range. Now, post-debate, that is more likely to be in the 2-4 point range with the +7 Obama from Grove Insight being more of an outlier than firmly within the range of results as it would have been before October 3.

New Hampshire:
The Granite state is now up to four post-debate surveys. That ain't a whole lot, folks. But the picture seems to be pretty clear through that scant level of data. Of the four, three have show either a tie or a one point lead (for Obama). Things are drawing closer and the weighted average in New Hampshire is approaching that of Ohio. If those two were to flip positions on the Electoral College Spectrum below, there wouldn't be that much of a change owing to the small number of electoral votes New Hampshire carries. If Romney won all the states through Iowa and then picked up a hypothetically shifted New Hampshire, that would get the governor to 267 electoral votes; not enough. If Ohio and New Hampshire switched spots, Obama would not need New Hampshire. The president would only have to win the states through Ohio, but that would be cutting it very fine indeed. That would get Obama to 271 electoral votes; just enough to retain the White House for the Democrats. New Hampshire would not be decisive given a switch with Ohio, but it wouldn't be inconsequential either.

New Jersey:
It is an apples to oranges comparison across polling firms, but to see an Obama +7 in both Nevada and New Jersey just doesn't jibe all that well with our understanding of where both of those states are in the order in 2012. Both polls are to the extreme end of the data in both states; beyond the top end of the range in Nevada and below the low end of the range of data in New Jersey. Things have closed some in the Garden state since the first debate (The Q poll yesterday had it at Obama +8.), but not to a level that is quite close enough for Romney to take advantage.

Washington:
Well, Rasmussen nailed things (...at least relative to the FHQ weighted average margin in the Evergreen state). If the +5 margin from PPP in Washington is accurate or even close to accurate, then my first reaction isn't so much Wow! as it is that we really need pollster to put down some stakes in Oregon and conduct some polls in the Beaver state. [FHQ thinks there needs to be some more polling there anyway.] As it is, this one looks now like an outlier given the other recent polling in Washington. There have only been two polls that found the race to be within 10 points and both were mid-summer. Incidentally, one of those, a July Survey USA poll, was the last time any poll found Obama under the 50% level there.

Wisconsin:
FHQ said just last week that it was taking a wait and see approach with the polling in Wisconsin. Up to last Thursday, the firms that had released post-debate polls in the Badger state were all firms that had found margins on the low to mid-level of the range of pre-debate data there. I said then that if we got data suggesting a tight race -- in the one to two point range -- from a firm that had shown a double digit Obama lead before the October 3 debate, then we would have confirmation of a significant contraction there. Well, the last Marquette Law School survey before the debate had Obama up 11 points. Post-debate that margin is down to one. That keeps Wisconsin tracking downward closer to a point of parity between the two major party candidates.


Well, Nevada jumped back into the Lean Obama category, but that seems like a temporary change in the grand scheme of things in this race. That shifts those six electoral votes back across the line into the lean area leaving 79 vulnerable electoral votes in six states to which the president is currently clinging (by FHQ's measurement). Of course, 51 of those electoral votes (Florida, Colorado and Virginia) may be a little closer to the partisan line and Romney than the FHQ metric lets on. In the zero-sum game that is the fight for most electoral votes, that increases Romney's paths to 270 by reducing the president's potential paths. That race could conceivably be one that rests on who wins the group of five states between Wisconsin and Iowa.

...or it could more simply mean that if Romney wins Ohio (along with the three light blue states mentioned above), he wins by claiming 275 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SD-3
(129)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
TN-11
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MO-10
(169)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List only saw Nevada switch back to being on the cusp of shifting into the Toss Up Obama category (something that seems inevitable anyway), but it also added Wisconsin. The Badger state, too, is now within range of a shift into the Toss Up Obama category. And if the polling continues to show a narrow Obama lead, we will continue to see the average margin there contract. Beyond those two states, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio are also worth looking most closely at when new data is added for each.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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