The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)

New State Polls (10/25/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Monmouth	10/21-10/24	+/-4.9%	401 likely voters	45	46	3	+1	+1.12
Arkansas	Hendrix	10/21	+/-4.6%	463 likely voters	33	56	5	+23	+18.20
Colorado	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.46%	1581 likely voters	45	43	4	+2	+4.19
Florida	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.41%	1646 likely voters	46	46	5	+/-0	--
Florida	Survey USA	10/20-10/24	+/-2.8%	1251 likely voters	48	45	0	+3	+2.38
Idaho	Emerson	10/21-10/23	+/-3.0%	1023 likely voters	23	52	9	+29	+25.16
Indiana	Gravis	10/22-10/24	+/-2.3%	1596 registered voters	38	49	8	+11	+9.41
Michigan	Mitchell Research	10/23	+/-2.78%	1241 likely voters	49	41	5	+8	+6.91
Minnesota	Mason-Dixon	10/20-10/22	+/-4.0%	625 likely voters	47	39	6	+8	+6.93
Nevada	Rasmussen	10/20-10/22	+/-3.5%	826 likely voters	46	42	4	+4	--
Nevada	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.68%	1332 likely voters	44	47	3	+3	--
Nevada	Bendixen & Amandi	10/20-10/23	+/-3.5%	800 likely voters	48	41	4	+7	+1.24
North Carolina	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.33%	1764 likely voters	44	47	5	+3	--
North Carolina	New York Times (Upshot)/Siena	10/20-10/23	+/-3.5%	792 likely voters	46	39	6	+7	+1.61
Ohio	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.2%	1971 likely voters	42	46	6	+4	+0.68
Pennsylvania	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.19%	1997 likely voters	45	42	7	+3	+5.44
South Dakota	Mason-Dixon	10/18-10/20	+/-5.0%	400 registered voters	37	44	12	+7	+12.12
Virginia	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/-2.31%	1787 likely voters	48	43	5	+5	+6.68
Wisconsin	Remington	10/20-10/22	+/- 2.31%	1795 registered voters	46	41	6	+5	+6.58

Polling Quick Hits:
Two weeks left.

The day brought with it 19 new survey releases from 15 states from across the Spectrum. Only the Strong Clinton group of states lacked any polls.


Arizona:
Monmouth's first poll in the Grand Canyon state looked a lot more like some of the head-to-head polls there throughout the year with both major party candidates in mid-40s. But this was a multi-way survey. Both have had those surveys with third party candidates included where they have pushed into the mid-40s, but not with any level of consistency (and it has rarely been both simultaneously). The one constant is that the margin is narrow, matching the overall average in the state. Arizona along with Iowa and Ohio are the three closest states at FHQ.


Arkansas:
Being the former first lady in the Natural state does not appear to be paying Clinton any dividends there. Arkansas continues to be in the right most column on the Electoral College Spectrum and the new Hendrix College poll did little to change that picture.


Colorado:
The first of the eight battleground polls from Remington is from Colorado. Generally speaking, this series is a bit more Republican-leaning than most polls in these states have been of late. There have been some close polls in the Centennial state since the first debate, but they have been outnumbered by those finding a wider Clinton advantage. Clinton's lead is only two points, but that did little to shake Colorado's position as the least competitive of the eight FHQ toss up states. It is much closer to being a Lean Clinton state than jumping the partisan line into Trump territory.


Florida:
There just is not a lot of evidence of anything other than a narrow, but durable Clinton lead in Florida.  Things look as they did four years ago in the state, but with Clinton about two points ahead of where Obama was relative to Romney in 2012. The two new polls did not change that.


Idaho:
Without more data, there is nothing yet to suggest that Evan McMullin is replicating his near parity with Trump in Utah polling in Idaho. Trump is still well ahead in the Gem state and the Republican vote there is not split like it is in Utah.


Indiana:
Indiana is like a lot of the lean states on both sides of the partisan line: one candidate is in the mid- to upper 40s while the other is hovering around the 40 percent mark. This Gravis poll fits that pattern. That trend has been more of a barrier to Trump as he has needed at least one Lean Clinton state (and all of the toss ups) to get to 270. While Clinton is in a similar position in Lean Trump states, those have not been necessary to her path to 270.


Michigan:
Trump has gained ground on Clinton in Michigan across the two Mitchell surveys out over the last two weeks. But that is of less consequence when the New York businessman continues to consistently trail there by margins within the lean range.


Minnesota:
Minnesota is a lot like Michigan but less frequently surveyed. And as of now, both are right next to each other in the Spectrum below. Like the description of lean states above, the leader in Minnesota is in the mid-40s and the trailing candidate is around 40 percent.


Nevada:
Remington provides a break in the Clinton run of polling leads in the Silver state since the first debate. But that one Trump lead does little to uproot Nevada's position as a state just slightly tipped toward the former Secretary of State.


North Carolina:
See Nevada. The story is the same in the Tar Heel state with Clinton having established a small but consistent lead since the first debate.


Ohio:
While the first debate can be seen as a turning point in some states -- like Nevada and North Carolina above -- that has not been the case in Ohio. There was a spike in Clinton support, but it was shorter lived. After the second debate -- the town hall and Trump tape -- the polls narrowed in the Buckeye state. The data are not robust in that time, but the established range across the scant polling is roughly tied to Trump +4. That change in trajectory has drawn the average closer here at FHQ, but kept Ohio just on the Clinton side of the partisan line.


Pennsylvania:
The Remington poll in Pennsylvania may be some sign of a change in direction in the Keystone state,  but the evidence since the first debate has been clear enough: Pennsylvania is a Lean Clinton state and one that has moved away from Trump in October. There has not been a poll this close since before the first debate.


South Dakota:
Polling has been light in South Dakota, but what little there has been has the Mount Rushmore state in exactly the same spot on the Electoral College Spectrum that it was in after the election in 2012. It is still a red state.


Virginia:
This Remington poll is a good one for Trump in Virginia. But since the first debate, he has been in the 30s in about three-quarters of the polls since then. That is not a winning position with two weeks to go, especially if Clinton is inching toward the 50 percent mark.


Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is much like its midwestern brethren above. Like Michigan and Minnesota, Trump is stuck around 40 percent and not showing any signs of pushing above that threshold. And with just 14 days until November 8, Clinton does not appear to be coming down to Trump's level in the polls across these states either.


--
Changes (10/25/16)
The day's flood of polling could only be felt here at FHQ on the Electoral College Spectrum. There was some shuffling among the clustered Lean Clinton states with Minnesota most noticeably jumping three spots deeper into the Clinton group of states. Meanwhile, a rare poll from South Dakota also shifted the Mount Rushmore state three positions toward Clinton and the partisan line while remaining in the Strong Trump group of states. Idaho pushed in the opposite direction on the Spectrum, moving toward the very end of the line up against neighboring Wyoming.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	PA-20 (263)	MO-10 (126)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	AK-3 (116)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	SC-9 (113)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	MN-10 (198)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	UT-6 (93)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (214)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	ME-23 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	WV-5 (19)
DE-3 (139)	VA-13 (229)	AZ-11 (192)	SD-3 (75)	OK-7 (14)
CT-7 (146)	WI-10 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	ID-4 (7)
WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

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The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

FHQ finally got an update up this week after a two week absence. That return has prompted some questions. Chief among them has been something along the lines of "Why aren't Florida, North Carolina and Ohio red?" Some skipped that and went straight for "you're wrong" while others went for poll "cherrypicking". On the former accusation, perhaps. The simple truth is that North Carolina and Ohio are close calls at the moment. It is exactly those close calls that tend to separate the various models in the end (see Florida, 2012). As for cherrypicking, well, it is hard to cherrypick polls when the whole aim is to include every publicly available poll out there. Like the "wrong" charge, this "cherrypicking" one ultimately comes back to the methodology.

Here are a few thoughts on that Storified from Twitter:

To the day's polls...

New State Polls (9/23/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arkansas	Talk Business/Hendrix	9/15-9/17	+/- 3.4%	831 likely voters	34	55	4	+21	+14.18
Georgia	JMC Analytics	9/20-9/22	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	38	44	12	+6	+2.04
Nevada	GQR/Democracy Corps	9/10-9/19	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	42	42	4	+/-0	+0.27
North Carolina	GQR/Democracy Corps	9/10-9/19	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	44	40	2	+4	+1.01
Ohio	GQR/Democracy Corps	9/10-9/19	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	39	41	4	+2	+0.69
Pennsylvania	GQR/Democracy Corps	9/10-9/19	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	46	38	3	+8	+5.94

Polling Quick Hits:
A slower day to end the work week. Two traditional red states saw new polls as well as some battleground states surveys from GQR.

Arkansas:

Changes (September 23)
State	Before	After
Arkansas	Lean Trump	Strong Trump

Polling has been light in the Natural state, but the picture has been pretty clear: Trump is ahead, but underperforming Mitt Romney from 2012. While that is still true in the latest Hendrix survey, it is less acute. The former first lady in the state is hovering right around where Obama was in the state four years ago and Trump is within shouting distance now of Romney there. In other words, if this poll is accurate, Arkansas looks normal rather than evidence of any fundamental shift across the whole map.


Georgia:
Compared to the last JMC poll from August in the Peach state, the two major party candidates have swapped positions. Now, it is Trump ahead. The survey provides a little more evidence that Georgia is tighter than 2012, but still a red state. Yes, the margin is still close-ish here, but it is growing as Trump continues his sweep of the September polls.


Nevada:
The first of today's GQR battleground polls in Nevada shows exactly what the firm did there back during its original June wave: a tie. The Silver state has slipped back into the red side of the partisan line, but only just there after a string of pro-Trump polls throughout September. This GQR survey is the first break in that streak, but serves to keep the underlying FHQ average in Nevada close. Close but favoring Trump for now, though.


North Carolina:
GQR also weighed in in North Carolina. The Democratic firm found the former Secretary of State up four, but that was down from the ten point advantage she had in their last poll in the Tar Heel state in June. Where that one may have been an outlier, this one is not, at least not as much. The established range in North Carolina has both Clinton and Trump bouncing around between 40 and 45 percent from poll to poll. The lead may change hands, but more often than not both candidates are within that range. That sort of clustering will produce a close race more often than not.


Ohio:
The same sort of story from North Carolina can extend to Ohio as well. The difference is that the two candidates are not sharing the same range. In the Buckeye state, Trump has found his support in the 40-44 percent range during September while Clinton has lagged in a 37-41 percent window for most polls in that same period. That is right where GQR plots the race right now. Now, obviously, that points to some Trump advantage in the state; an advantage that is not reflected here at FHQ. The Ohio average is slowly but surely tracking toward zero. If Trump's lead holds up in future polls, then that shift across the partisan line will occur. But that has not happened as of yet.


Pennsylvania:
Yes, yes, this GQR survey is one from a Democratic-leaning firm. Yet, there is it in black and white that Clinton's lead in the state -- across most polls -- has proven more durable than in other states throughout this September swoon of hers. Trump does not have to win Pennsylvania, but he will have to reach into the Lean Clinton area to pick off a state or two to get to 270. Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, is the quickest route to that goal, but also does not look reachable at this time.


--
The addition of these polls did little to shake things up here at FHQ. North Carolina barely inched off the Watch List but remains quite close (though still favoring Clinton). Arkansas' is off the list too. Meanwhile, Arkansas and Pennsylvania shuffled around on the Spectrum. Arkansas is still very much a red state but looks a little redder now, and Pennsylvania slid up a couple of cells deeper into blue territory on the Spectrum. The latter is part of a tightly knot quartet including Colorado, Maine and Virginia.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	NH-43 (269 | 273)	TX-38 (155)	TN-11 (56)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	RI-43 (273 | 269)	MS-6 (116)	AR-6 (45)
MA-11 (28)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
VT-3 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 | 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
CA-55 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 | 221)	UT-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	NV-6 (203)	KS-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (232)	IA-6 (197)	IN-11 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	PA-20 (252)	AZ-11 (191)	MT-3 (75)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	ME-4 (256)	GA-16 (180)	KY-8 (72)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	CO-9 (265)	MO-10 (164)	LA-8 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.