Showing posts with label 2012 presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 presidential election. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

What to Watch for Election Night

Oh no, not another one of these guides.

Yeah, I know. They're a dime a dozen at this point.

However, FHQ did want to reiterate a point we made recently. Call it a one state guide to the early part of election night.


This one hinges on how things go in the early going in North Carolina. The Tarheel state is a state that Mitt Romney should win. That isn't what this concerns. Instead, we should be looking at how early and how comfortable the networks are in calling North Carolina. If a call is able to made early and it is a 2-3 point margin for Romney, then the governor may be overperforming the polls there and perhaps -- perhaps -- elsewhere. But there are two other possibilities that if we extrapolate from the North Caroline situation, could have implications.

  1. If Romney outperforms the polls by more than 5 points and a call is made very early/quickly in the Tarheel state, then we may have some early evidence that there is in fact a tide behind the Republican candidate.
  2. If, however, North Carolina drags out into the night in a manner approaching what happened in the state four years ago, then that may alternatively bode well for the president. 
No, this is not a definitive guide. And yes, FHQ is well aware of the fact that idiosyncrasies within one state may prevent generalizing to other states. It is also true that the campaigns have both backed off just a little in the last week here in the Old North state. Yet, North Carolina is something of an early signal in this presidential election. Obviously, Virginia closes its polls early too and there may be indications there as well. But Virginia is a little more competitive than North Carolina and likely won't be able to be called as quickly.



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:45 PM 0 comments
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The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day

Election day is here, and here is how things look at FHQ.


The election day map ends up just about right where it started out in July.

  • Michigan shifted over those four months from Toss Up Obama to Lean Obama but always hovered around the line between those two categories.
  • Minnesota moved from Strong Obama to Lean Obama just recently. Much of that is attributable to a contraction in the most recently released polling, but part of it also has to do with the overall lack of polls in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as compared to other similar states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. [The same was true of Oregon.]
  • Indiana, Montana and Tennessee all started off in the Lean Romney category, drifted upward into the Strong Romney area throughout the late summer and early fall. That puts all three in line with where they would have been if we assumed a uniform shift in support toward the Republicans since the 2008 cycle. 
  • The margin in Missouri also moved up, but the Show Me state pushed from Toss Up Romney to Lean Romney after the conventions. 

That's it.

Now, focusing on category changes masks some underlying movement that we should also mention. It is true that in all the toss up states with the exception of the lone state tipped in Romney's favor -- North Carolina -- that the margins drew closer as election day approached. Within the course of the campaign, some attributed this to the post-Denver momentum Romney enjoyed. To be sure, that debate altered the micro-dynamics of the race. But that effect dissipated in the polling over time and gave way to the typical narrowing that is exhibited in post-convention polling. [2008 is an exception to that rule.] FHQ says micro-dynamics there because the macro-dynamics -- the "fundamentals" -- still seemingly and ever so slightly "helped" the president.

...or at least that is what has been reflected in the polls.

Despite their tendency to meander due to events on the ground, the polls have told a consistent story through the lens of the FHQ weighted averages. The tally is now where it was in July: Obama 332, Romney 206. Now, it should be noted that the average margin (see table below) in Florida is down to just 0.16. That is pretty close, folks. FHQ will keep Florida right where it is on the map (The average does still tip to the president.), but the Sunshine state seems like a 50/50 proposition as election day makes its way into the afternoon. We could just as easily see a 303-236 split -- which is what many others are predicting -- but only time will tell.

--
In terms of how the states line up in the rank order on the Electoral College Spectrum, well, most consequentially, the order among the toss up states is preserved. There is not a whole lot of utility in discussing the shuffling among the strong states for either candidate, but here goes:

  • On the Obama side of the partisan line, New Jersey and Maine switched spots, but are basically occupying the same space. 
  • As for the Romney side of things, Indiana and South Carolina traded places, Louisiana jumped up a handful of spots on the strength of some dated polls being added to the mix today and Texas and West Virginia exchanged slots.

Again, there isn't that much to the discussion of states that are done in the eyes of most folks.

FHQ mentioned Florida above, but beyond the Sunshine state, Colorado and Virginia seem to be the best opportunities for Romney (again, given the polling data we have) today. Does that mean Romney will be unable to push the partisan line deeper into the states colored in light blue or even those in primary blue? No, it absolutely does not. However, the odds are not in the former Massachusetts governor's favor to pull that off.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(168)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
ME-4
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
WA-12
(154)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
ND-3
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The final FHQ weighted averages in the 32 states with late-entry data are below. The remainder were already in the clubhouse so to speak or were never, in the case of states like Delaware and Mississippi -- polled in 2012.

Final FHQ Margins (11/6/12) -- 1:15pm
State
MarginRating
Arizona
+6.81
Lean Romney
California
+16.79
Strong Obama
Colorado
+1.75
Toss Up Obama
Connecticut
+11.84
Strong Obama
Florida
+0.16
Toss Up Obama
Georgia
+9.24
Strong Romney
Illinois
+19.16
Strong Obama
Indiana
+11.27
Strong Romney
Iowa
+2.55
Toss Up Obama
Louisiana
+13.87
Strong Romney
Maine
+12.34
Strong Obama
Maryland
+21.29
Strong Obama
Massachusetts
+19.60
Strong Obama
Michigan
+5.57
Lean Obama
Minnesota
+7.53
Lean Obama
Missouri
+8.15
Lean Romney
Montana
+9.07
Strong Romney
Nevada
+4.05
Lean Obama
New Hampshire
+3.03
Toss Up Obama
New Jersey
+12.36
Strong Obama
New Mexico
+9.13
Strong Obama
New York
+25.02
Strong Obama
North Carolina
+1.56
Toss Up Romney
Ohio
+2.94
Toss Up Obama
Pennsylvania
+5.69
Lean Obama
South Dakota
+10.42
Strong Romney
Tennessee
+12.13
Strong Romney
Texas
+15.56
Strong Romney
Utah
+45.38
Strong Romney
Virginia
+1.79
Toss Up Obama
Washington
+13.36
Strong Obama
Wisconsin
+4.61
Lean Obama

If you haven't already voted early, go vote today.


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 7:32 AM 0 comments
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Saturday, November 3, 2012

The Electoral College Map (11/3/12)

So much for lazy weekends. There were 20 new polls from 14 states on Saturday and one dated poll from Utah added to mix. Again, most of the action was in either toss up states or in the series of Lean Obama states that have seen some margin contraction over the last few weeks as the polls first drew closer then leveled off. But there were a handful of polls in a few Strong Obama/Romney states that help to round out the overall picture of the race.

[And since we mentioned Utah, I'll go ahead and comment to put your mind at ease about the Beehive state. Romney won't lose that one.]

New State Polls (11/3/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
10/17-10/30
+/- 2.6%
1566 likely voters
54
39
5
+15
+17.60
Florida
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
45
51
4
+6
+0.24
Florida
10/31-11/1
+/- 2.7%
1545 likely voters
49
47
2
+2
--
Georgia
11/1
+/- 4.7%
426 likely voters
42.0
54.1
3.1
+12.1
+9.38
Iowa
10/30-11/1
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
46
44
10
+2
+2.73
Iowa
10/30-11/2
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
47
42
2
+5
--
Iowa
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
47
44
8
+3
--
Michigan
11/1-11/3
+/- 3.7%
700 likely voters
52
46
1
+6
+5.73
Minnesota
10/29-10/31
+/- 4.38%
500 likely voters
45
46
--
+1
+7.34
Minnesota
11/1-11/3
+/- 2.9%
1164 likely voters
53
45
2
+8
--
New Hampshire
11/1
+/- 4.3%
497 likely voters
50
49
1
+1
+3.10
New Hampshire
10/31-11/2
+/- 4.4%
502 likely voters
48
48
3
0
--
Ohio
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.1%
971 likely voters
51
45
3
+6
+2.92
Ohio
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
49
45
4
+4
--
Oregon
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.2%
921 registered voters
52
46
3
+6
+6.19
Pennsylvania
11/2-11/3
+/- 3.5%
790 likely voters
52
46
1
+6
+5.95
South Dakota
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.53%
795 likely voters
42
50
8
+8
+9.96
Utah
10/9-10/13
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
20
71
9
+51
+45.33
Utah
10/26-11/1
+/- 3.4%
870 registered voters
26
69
--
+43
--
Washington
11/1-11/3
+/- 3.2%
932 likely voters
53
46
1
+7
+13.33
Wisconsin
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
42
8
+6
+4.60

There was little that changed the overall outlook on the electoral college here at FHQ given the day's polling. Romney was quite strong in the states he was already just fine in and Obama continued to get some good results in the toss up and lean (Obama) states. Public Policy Polling was the most prolific firm on the day (with five total surveys) and the results largely followed the FHQ rank order of states. Michigan, Oregon and Pennsylvania were all bunched together at Obama +6 -- just as they are in the FHQ weighted averages -- and Minnesota was, as here at FHQ, on the Obama side of that group of states. The lone exception to that rule was Washington. It settled in in between Minnesota and that aforementioned group; much closer than our averages have it. Washington state has now slipped into the furthest column to the left on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but PPP has had it closer for the last couple of polls it has conducted in the Evergreen state.

Florida and Ohio should probably also be mentioned. There were polar opposites coming out of the Sunshine state from Mason-Dixon and Marist. The former was more favorable to Romney than the latter. Marist also had the race for Ohio at Obama +6 which is outside where most recent polling has had it. If the Florida poll from the Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC was similarly Obama-favorable, then that may say something about which one of the two Florida polls was closer to reality. In truth, the answer in the last week has been somewhere in the middle. The average here at FHQ has the balance tipped the slightest of margins -- just 0.24% at this point -- toward the president, but the polling in October has probably inched a little closer to Romney.


The map (changes since 11/2): No change. Obama: 332, Romney 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/2): No change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
ME-4
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SC-9
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(139)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
WA-12
(154)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/2): No change among the toss up states.
South Dakota enters the list and is within a fraction of a point of shifting into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
South Dakota
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Friday, November 2, 2012

The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)

24 new polls from 17 states closed out the final work week before election day. Additionally, there were two other surveys from earlier in October factored in as well from a couple of non-competitive states -- Maine and Nebraska.

New State Polls (11/2/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.8%
695 likely voters
47
45
--
+2
+1.65
Colorado
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
825 likely voters
50
46
4
+4
--
Connecticut
11/1-11/2
+/- 2.8%
1220 likely voters
55
42
3
+13
+11.64
Georgia
10/29-10/31
+/- 2.7%
1316 likely voters
46
52
1
+6
+9.04
Hawaii
10/24-10/26
+/- 2.8%
1218 likely voters
61
34
5
+27
+29.35
Indiana
10/28-10/30
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
41
50
--
+9
+12.01
Indiana
10/31-11/1
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
41
54
5
+13
--
Iowa
11/1
+/- 4.0%
594 likely voters
49
45
6
+4
+2.67
Maine
10/7-10/8
+/- 4.0%
500 likely voters
48
44
--
+4
+13.21
Maine
11/1-11/2
+/- 2.4%
1633 likely voters
55
42
2
+13
--
Massachusetts
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.48%
761 likely voters
54.0
41.4
4.6
+12.6
+19.56
Massachusetts
11/1-11/2
+/- 3.0%
1089 likely voters
57
42
2
+15
--
Michigan
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
500 likely voters
52
46
2
+6
+5.72
Michigan
10/31-11/1
+/- 4.4%
500 registered voters
48
41
9
+7
--
Michigan
11/1
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
52
47
1
+5
--
Minnesota
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
772 likely voters
53
44
3
+9
+7.90
Montana
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
41
49
--
+8
+9.11
Nebraska
10/23-10/25
+/- 3.8%
679 likely voters
38
52
--
+14
+13.76
Nebraska
11/1
+/- 2.95%
1178 likely voters
41
54
3
+13
--
Nevada
10/29-10/31
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+4.06
New Hampshire
10/29-10/31
+/- 3.7%
1017 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+3.30
Ohio
10/30-11/1
+/- 2.6%
1649 likely voters
50
46
--
+4
+2.86
Ohio
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.5%
796 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
--
Ohio
11/1
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
49
49
1
0
--
Virginia
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.0%
1069 likely voters
49
48
--
+1
+1.69
Wisconsin
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.0%
1210 likely voters
52
45
--
+7
+4.57

This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages  in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.

From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.


The map (changes since 11/1):
Changes (November 2)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up ObamaLean Obama
No change in the overall tally. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
ME-4
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SC-9
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(139)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
WA-12
(154)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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