"DNC Votes to Officially Select Early States for 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominating Calendar"

DNC press release:

Today, at the DNC’s summer meeting in Austin, Texas, the full DNC voted to officially approve the proposed slate of six early states to lead the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, as well as the accompanying rules package. The vote follows an outpouring of support for the Rules and Bylaws Committee’s proposal after their July meeting. Leaders, advocates, and Democrats from all across the country have praised the calendar’s historic diversity and its ability to battle-test candidates while maintaining an open, affordable field.

The early window passed today, as proposed by RBC, includes six states in the following order.

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“The DNC has delivered a 2028 nominating calendar that truly represents our party and our values, and will help us retake the White House in 2028. I applaud the Rules and Bylaws Committee for their commitment to a transparent and fair selection process, which led to this rigorous, fair, and efficient early window.”

Background on Selected States:

• Battle-testing Our Candidates: The early window delivers on RBC’s goal of a battle-tested nominee both with key battleground states and tests with a comprehensive range of voters key to winning back the White House.
• Key battleground states are prominently featured in the early window with both Nevada and Michigan.
• Other early window states feature competitive downballot races and swing voter populations with New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Virginia.
• Comprehensive Test with Diverse Voters: The early window provides a comprehensive test with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning a general election. In fact, it is the most diverse open field early window in Democratic Party history, massively increasing diverse representation from 2020 early window states.
• Black Voters: 4.6 million Black people live in the early window states, an increase of 2.8 million.
• Latino Voters: 4.2 million Latinos live in the early window states, an increase of 2.4 million.
• AANHPI Voters: 1.4 million Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islander Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 900k.
• Native American Voters: 370k Native Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 280k.
• Non-college Voters: 14 million Americans in the early window states do not have a college degree, an increase of 7.7 million.
• Young Voters: More than 2.8 million young (18-24) people live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.6 million.
• Union Voters: More than 1.1 million union workers live in the early window states, an increase of more than 700k.
• Veterans/Military Voters: More than 2.1 million veteran and military voters live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.2 million.
• Keeping the Contest Open, Affordable: The early window is open and affordable for candidates — ensuring voters choose our 2028 nominee, not money.
• The earliest portion of the window creates an open field, and does not box out any candidates based solely on warchest and name ID.
• South Carolina has a very affordable media market, with estimated weekly ad cost that is among the lowest of any of the early states.
• The relatively inexpensive Reno media market serves the vast majority of Nevadans outside of the Las Vegas media market.
• Both South Carolina and New Hampshire are geographically compact states, making travel more affordable and accessible.

Additional Context on the Rules and Bylaws Committee’s Process:

• This week’s DNC vote comes after many months of careful planning and deliberation by the RBC, including:
• Deliberately chosen criteria for selection and an open application process
• Thoughtful consideration of applications and presentations by states
• Thorough review of the rules for the process
• The full DNC vote took place during the General Session meeting, which was livestreamed and can be found on the DNC’s YouTube page here.

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Let's talk about the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, part two 

What are the implications on the race of the six states selected to hold contests in the Democrats' early window?

At FHQ Plus: Let's talk about the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, part two

Over at FHQ Plus...

So, the Democrats have a calendar for 2028.

Well, the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) has adopted calendar rules and waivers for six states to hold early presidential primaries on the following dates:

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

Now those rules, as part of the amended delegate selection rules, the early state waivers, an updated Call for the Convention and amendments to the Charter and Bylaws all head to the full Democratic National Committee (DNC) for final approval next week at the party’s summer meeting in Austin, TX.

For now, let’s assume that the calendar rules pass as is as part of the broader package of changes the RBC will present to the full party membership in Austin. What then? That is a good question, followed by a near infinite set of additional, attendant questions. I want to spend a little time addressing some of those questions below the fold.

But before I jump in I want to note how little we know right now. There is a calendar. It will have one to two more states in the early window than was the case during the last competitive Democratic presidential nomination cycle in 2020. Additionally, there will very likely be A LOT of candidates who initially throw their hats in the ring. Of course, some may run for 2028 but not actually end up running in 2028. Oh, and there are also some delegate allocation rules too.

While there are also other things that we know, there is more that we do not know at this stage. Standing between the here and now and January 1, 2028, to choose one arbitrary date before primary season truly kicks off, is a sea of invisible primary activities that will help fill in many but certainly not all of those blanks. Primary season itself will finish that job.

All of that is to say that a bit of caution is warranted. The coulds in the direction this thing could go are numerous. Anyway, over at FHQ Plus I pose and answer some questions.

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Let's talk about the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, part one 

A closer look at the Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting where the early calendar decisions were made

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"Has New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation law outlived its usefulness?"

UNH political scientist Dante Scala provides some Granite state perspective on the the FITN presidential primary:

"New Hampshire’s political elites quickly pointed fingers after a Democratic National Committee panel voted Friday to strip the Granite State of its first-in-the-nation status on the presidential nomination calendar. Republican elites blamed Democrats for the Rules and Bylaws Committee decision. Democratic elites blamed their national party leadership. What neither side did, but should, is consider the following: On their watch, New Hampshire has become much less capable of defending its role in the process."

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Noteworthy: Look, I would like to just copy and paste all of Scala's piece here. It is such helpful grounding for understanding the place of New Hampshire's presidential primary in an ever-changing nomination system and the utility of the infamous law that has protected its early position in the process for decades. Highly recommended piece. Go read it.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

At FHQ Plus: Let's talk about the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, part one

Over at FHQ Plus...

So, the Democrats have a calendar for 2028.

Well, the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) has adopted calendar rules and waivers for six states to hold early presidential primaries on the following dates:

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

Now those rules, as part of the amended delegate selection rules, the early state waivers, an updated Call for the Convention and amendments to the Charter and Bylaws all head to the full Democratic National Committee (DNC) for final approval next month at the party’s summer meeting in Austin, TX. Yes, that is another hurdle the complete rules package for 2028 has to first clear.

No, it is unlikely that there will be much resistance or that any that arises will be enough to derail the rules package the RBC will report to the full body. For example, the 2024 calendar rules and waivers were brought before the DNC in February 2023 and while the package was opened to discussion on the floor of the meeting, the rules were adopted as is.

A cycle earlier, in 2018, when the proposed delegate selection rules came before the full DNC, the calendar process was operating under the old (pre-2024) rules — the early calendar positions of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina were written directly into the rules — there was more discussion than there was in 2023. But it was not over the calendar. Rather, the heated discussion at the DNC meeting that adopted rules that cycle was over the superdelegate changes recommended by the Unity Reform Commission with language later crafted by the RBC. There, some amendments were heard and adopted, but they were minor in scope.

A similar discussion, if not debate, may arise in Austin. There may even be some subtle changes made to the rules package. But, again, that is unlikely to include changes to the calendar proposal above. That, or something close to it, will be the schedule that commences the voting phase of the Democratic presidential nomination process in 2028.

But before weighing on the impact of that calendar of primaries and caucuses for 2028 (the future part two of this series of posts), I want to talk some about the Friday session of the RBC meeting. There were a number of state-level responses, both jubilant and defiant, from state parties and the local media and a number of national accounts that mainly focused on the divisions on the committee (and in the broader party coalition) over which state should be first. However, to FHQ’s mind, there were, big surprise, a few things that flew under the radar that deserve some attention. I will focus on those items over at FHQ Plus.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

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"Iowa Dems call 2028 presidential calendar snub a 'slap in the face'"

Brianne Pfannestiel at the Des Moines Register shares the reaction in Iowa as Hawkeye state Democrats are on the outside looking in on the early calendar again for 2028:

"Iowa have been shut out of an officially sanctioned spot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar, despite national Democrats expanding the map to include two additional early voting states.

"The Rules and Bylaws Committee, the powerful arm of the Democratic National Committee that sets the presidential nominating calendar, voted Friday, July 24 to again bypass Iowa and instead start the 2028 primary process in South Carolina."

...

"But even as they [the Iowa Democratic Party] left the door wide open to holding a rogue first-in-the-nation caucus in defiance of the national party, Iowa’s next steps remain unclear.

"[Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita] Hart and other Iowa Democratic Party leaders said Friday they intend to first focus on the 2026 winning elections."

...

“'We’ll have more to say after November,' Hart said."

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Robin Opsahl from the Iowa Capital Dispatch with a quote from former Iowa RBC member, Scott Brennan: 

"Scott Brennan, an Iowan serving on the DNC and a former member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, said in a news conference Friday he expected Iowa would not be chosen in the early window once again. Brennan lost his spot on the RBC in 2025, after the election of DNC Chair Ken Martin earlier that year.

“'Look, I’m not surprised by this decision,' Brennan said. 'It was probably decided 18 months ago when the new members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee were appointed by Chair Martin. … When we lost the White House, we did make a good faith effort to share our concerns, but clearly, our case was not heard by this committee or Chair Martin.'”

More on the RBC membership decisions by DNC Chair Martin here.

...

More from Hart via Iowa Capital Dispatch:

"'I had this conversation with Ken Martin and with some of the members of the RBC, that it’s pretty hard to defend any kind of situation that we’re in right now,” Hart said. “When we got slapped last time, when we worked in cooperation with the DNC and lost our representation on the RBC, in comparison to other states that did not cooperate and got rewarded. So it’s really hard to make a case to these people that say, you know, ‘why work with the DNC going forward?’ But I would say that that is a conversation that is not doesn’t need to be taking place right now. As we, when we get to November, and we have some newly elected Democratic officials, they’re gonna have some things to say about that, along with the rest of our Democrats.'"

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Others in Iowa politics also weighed in: 

Democratic US Senate nominee Josh Turek:

"Speaking with reporters after a joint event in Des Moines, Turek was asked whether Iowa should go first regardless of the committee's decision.

"'Yes,' Turek said. 'Iowa law is really clear. We go first. And in the U.S. Senate I’m there to represent Iowa and Iowans regardless over any other interest or group.'"

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Democrats move Va. up to 6th state for presidential primary"

Michael Martz at the Richmond Times-Dispatch with the reaction in the commonwealth to Virginia's inclusion in the Democrats' early window for 2028:

"Virginia voters won't have to wait until Super Tuesday to pick a Democratic presidential candidate in 2028.

"The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee proposed Virginia as the sixth state on the early presidential primary calendar in 2028, with the election scheduled on Feb. 29 — leap day. It will follow Democratic presidential primaries in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Michigan under the calendar that the committee adopted on Friday.

"The decision means that Virginia won't have to compete with other states for the attention of presidential candidates, as it did on Super Tuesday in early March."

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The reaction from Democratic Party of Virginia Chair Lamont Bagby: 

"We are appreciative of the Rules and Bylaws Committee's decision to recommend that Virginia receive a waiver to become an early primary state in the upcoming Presidential primary calendar. Virginia reflects the diversity. priorities, and experiences of voters across the country.

"Virginia voters have a long history of testing and then electing exceptional leaders. We will now have the opportunity to do that in an early and influential Democratic Presidential primary and that will help set the stage to elect a Democratic President."

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"Michigan Selected for Early Window of DNC’s 2028 Primary Calendar"

Michigan Democratic Party press release:

"Today, the Democratic National Committee announced that Michigan was selected by the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to hold its primary election in the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar. In response, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel shared the following statement:

“'The road to the White House runs through Michigan, and we are proud to be in the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar. Michigan is the most diverse battleground state in the nation, and a candidate who can win here can win nationwide. We thank the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee for recognizing Michigan’s importance, and we look forward to ensuring Michigan voters make their voices heard. So goes Michigan, so goes the nation.'”

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Noteworthy: Currently, the Michigan presidential primary is scheduled by state law for the fourth Tuesday in February. That falls on February 22, 2028, the date the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee slotted the state into on the party's 2028 presidential primary calendar.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"National Democratic committee recommends New Mexico move up on the calendar for presidential primary"

Joshua Bowling at Source NM has the latest on one of the new states added to the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee on Friday voted to catapult New Mexico’s 2028 presidential primary election to fourth in the country.

...

"In a statement Friday, Lujan Grisham said she appreciated the DNC committee members taking her pitch seriously.

“'For years, I’ve said the same thing: you cannot show up for Hispanic voters in November after Democrats have already picked a nominee. You have to engage with them from the start. Today, national Democrats agreed,' she wrote. 'New Mexico is the most Hispanic state in America, and we’re the only border state in this early window. Now, candidates who want to be taken seriously on immigration and the border are going to have to come to New Mexico and earn it.'

“'Making New Mexico an early primary state will help put our state on the national stage, increase investment in our communities, expand our tourism economy and give New Mexicans a stronger voice in shaping the policies of our nation,' Lujan Grisham said."

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Noteworthy: The New Mexico presidential primary, consolidated with those for other offices, is currently scheduled for June 6, 2028. State government is under unified Democratic control and will have to change state law to accommodate the shift to February. Recent efforts -- in 2015 and 2020 -- to move the primary have failed, the former to move the entire consolidated primary from June to March and the latter to create a separate presidential primary election in January. It remains to be seen which route of the two decision makers in the Land of Enchantment will pursue in their efforts to meet the criteria of the rules handed down by the Rules and Bylaws Committee (and ultimately the DNC).

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"New Hampshire politicians defiant after DNC picks South Carolina for first-in-the-nation presidential primary"

Steven Porter at the Boston Globe on New Hampshire Democrats now staring down a conflict between state law and DNC rules that now slot the Granite state presidential primary third:

"New Hampshire politicians from both major parties reacted with outrage and defiance on Friday after an influential rulemaking body of the Democratic National Committee selected South Carolina to host first party-approved primary on the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, once again bumping New Hampshire.

"The DNC’s plan, which seems poised for final approval in August, calls for New Hampshire to vote third, after Nevada. But that would contradict a state law that requires New Hampshire’s top election official to schedule the state-run presidential primary to occur at least seven days before any similar election.

"New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican, said the state will follow its law and maintain a first-in-the-nation tradition that has endured for more than a century. In other words, Granite Staters will hold their primary vote first in 2028 regardless of what the DNC’s calendar says, just as they did in the 2024 cycle."

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New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley's statement on the Rules and Bylaws Committee decision: 

Today's vote shows that many party insiders have learned nothing from 2024. New Hampshire has a proven track record of testing our candidates with a rigorous, fair, and efficient process, yet those qualities did not prevail. This committee's vote does not change the realities governing New Hampshire's primary, which are beyond the control of both this committee and our state party. Democrats' guiding North Star should be winning general elections, and New Hampshire Democrats will get back to work focusing on the 2026 elections and addressing the significant challenges facing America's overwhelmed working class. Today's vote moves the party further away from that objective.

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New Hampshire's all-Democratic congressional delegation also weighed in: 

The Democratic National Committee's decision today is wrong for Democrats, wrong for New Hampshire, and wrong for the country. New Hampshire's First in the Nation primary is a tested proving ground in a closely contested swing state that forges better candidates and better presidents -- and despite what DNC insiders say, that hasn't changed. As a state with highly engaged voters, we put candidates through their paces and thoroughly vet them. And our small size means that actually meeting and talking to voters takes precedence over super PACs or mega-donor-fueled campaigns. Regardless of today's vote, Granite Staters remain committed to the hard work of organizing and electing candidates who stand up for our Live Free or Die values.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Nevada Democrats won't vote for president first in 2028. Here's what it means."

Mini Racker at the Nevada Independent on Nevada's place on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar:

"Despite a hard-fought campaign to host the first presidential primary of 2028, Nevada Democrats lost out to South Carolina after a powerful Democratic National Committee panel voted on Friday. The state is instead scheduled to host the second early primary on Feb. 1, 2028.

"It's a major disappointment for Nevada proponents who looked forward to the Silver State getting intense attention from Democratic presidential candidates and an outsized role in setting the political agenda in the coming cycle."

...

"Nevada lost out on the opportunity by a vote of 26 to 19, with four members of the committee voting for New Hampshire. Many of Nevada's supporters were younger, newer members of the committee and those from Western states. Opponents raised concerns about Nevada's ability to name a winner on primary night, though Nevadans on the panel argued election reforms would address those worries."

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The reaction from the Nevada Democratic Party: 

Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno released the following statement in response to the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee recommending Nevada be Democrats’ first presidential primary in the West:

“We’ve been consistent all along, putting Nevada first best sets our party up for success. Nevada is the broad coalition of diverse voices—Latino, Black, AANHPI, and Native American as well as white working-class voters—our party must win back if we’re serious about flipping the White House in 2028.

“As an early state and the first true test of a candidate’s ability to win in a general election, we will play a critical role in the nomination process.”

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"South Carolina to be first-in-the-nation for Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Caitlin Byrd at the Post and Courier looks at South Carolina's selection as the nation's first Democratic contest in 2028 from the Palmetto state:

"The road to the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will begin in South Carolina.

"The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee voted July 24 to place the Palmetto State first on its 2028 nominating calendar, giving its voters the initial say in what is expected to be a sprawling and competitive primary.

"Before the vote, South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain framed the state’s early-primary role as essential to the party’s broader ambitions in a region it has struggled to win.

“'The South is not the past. It is the future,' Spain told the committee. 'And if we are serious about changing this country, Democrats have to start winning in the South.'"

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South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain on the selection: 

South Carolina Democrats are grateful to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for again selecting South Carolina to lead off the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. This decision demonstrates our party’s commitment to competing in the South and recognizes the importance of black and rural voters in shaping the Democratic Party’s future. Additionally, the committee valued our flexibility in setting the primary date and the certainty of conducting a well-run primary.

This moment belongs to the volunteers, organizers, county parties, activists, and candidates who have worked tirelessly to build our party and ensure every voice is heard. Time and time again, South Carolina Democrats have shown that we know how to choose a presidential nominee who can unite our party and win in November.

The process to determine which states will go early in the primary calendar has been extremely competitive, and we are honored to join five additional diverse states that together will lead our nominating process and deliver the strongest, most competitive nominee in 2028 that will deliver for working families across this country. Together, we are ready to deliver for the Democratic Party and the American people.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Proposes Early States for 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominating Calendar"

DNC press release:

Committee members highlighted the calendar’s ability to battle-test the field of candidates with a rigorous, fair, and efficient mix of early states.

Today, at the July meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC), the RBC voted to select six states for the early window of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. At the meeting, the RBC voted to issue the waivers to each of the six early window states, inviting them to hold nominating contests prior to Super Tuesday in the following order:

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

RBC Co-Chairs Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt, Jr. released the following statement:

“The Rules and Bylaws Committee has proposed a rigorous, fair, and efficient calendar that will win Democrats back the White House in 2028. After months of hard work and deliberation, we are very proud of the calendar that the RBC has put forward — which is also the most diverse calendar Democrats have ever had for an open nominating contest. We look forward to presenting the proposal to our colleagues across the DNC for their approval in a few weeks.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“I commend the RBC for their diligent work and commitment to a fair and transparent selection process. As a result of their hard work, today, Democrats took a critical step toward retaking the White House in 2028 by ensuring we have the strongest possible nominee.”

Additional Context on the Early Window Process:

• During the meeting, RBC members debated the potential early window options and ultimately determined that the six states selected best fit the goals laid out by the committee: a rigorous, fair, and efficient calendar that will produce the strongest possible nominee to win back the White House.
• The RBC also chose to amend the Committee’s previously adopted resolution on the Principles and Procedures for Review of the 2028 Democratic Party Presidential Primary Calendar. The amended resolution allowed them to select a sixth state for the early window, instead of only 4 or 5. Members explained this change was a reflection of the numerous strong applications and their goal to create the best early window possible from their available options.
• The RBC’s decision will now be put before the full DNC for a vote at the DNC’s summer meeting, August 13-15.
• The RBC’s decision comes after many months of careful planning and deliberation by the RBC, including:
• Deliberately chosen criteria for selection and an open application process
• Thoughtful consideration of applications and presentations by states
• Thorough review of the rules for the process
• The full meeting was livestreamed and can be found on the DNC’s YouTube page here.

Background on Selected States:

• Battle-testing Our Candidates: The early window delivers on RBC’s goal of a battle-tested nominee both with key battleground states and tests with a comprehensive range of voters key to winning back the White House.
• Key battleground states are prominently featured in the early window with both Nevada and Michigan.
• Other early window states feature competitive downballot races and swing voter populations with New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Virginia.
• Comprehensive Test with Diverse Voters: The early window provides a comprehensive test with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning a general election. In fact, it is the most diverse open field early window in Democratic Party history, massively increasing diverse representation from 2020 early window states.
• Black Voters: 4.6 million Black people live in the early window states, an increase of 2.8 million.
• Latino Voters: 4.2 million Latinos live in the early window states, an increase of 2.4 million.
• AANHPI Voters: 1.4 million Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islander Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 900k.
• Native American Voters: 370k Native Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 280k.
• Non-college Voters: 14 million Americans in the early window states do not have a college degree, an increase of 7.7 million.
• Young Voters: More than 2.8 million young (18-24) people live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.6 million.
• Union Voters: More than 1.1 million union workers live in the early window states, an increase of more than 700k.
• Veterans/Military Voters: More than 2.1 million veteran and military voters live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.2 million.
• Keeping the Contest Open, Affordable: The early window is open and affordable for candidates — ensuring voters choose our 2028 nominee, not money.
• The earliest portion of the window creates an open field, and does not box out any candidates based solely on warchest and name ID.
• South Carolina has a very affordable media market, with estimated weekly ad cost that is among the lowest of any of the early states.
• The relatively inexpensive Reno media market serves the vast majority of Nevadans outside of the Las Vegas media market.
• Both South Carolina and New Hampshire are geographically compact states, making travel more affordable and accessible.

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More on this to come over the weekend at FHQ Plus.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

At FHQ Plus: The coming 2028 primary calendar vote from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee

Over at FHQ Plus...

The Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee opened up the first of two days of meetings on Thursday, July 23 and it looks as if the panel has cleared the way for further, if not final, consideration of the states that will make up the early calendar lineup on the party’s 2028 presidential primary calendar. With work on the delegate selection rules and Call for the Convention now done, the RBC can now return its focus to determining which states will kick off the presidential primary process in a year and a half or so.

Over at FHQ yesterday, I shared some quick thoughts on where the process is and what seems to be coming in reaction to Shane Goldmacher’s reporting at The New York Times. But DNC Chair Ken Martin led off day one of this RBC meeting in Washington with some remarks that are worth incorporating into how one might approach any calendar vote that might be coming on Friday. I dig into all of that over at FHQ Plus.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

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At FHQ Plus: Leftovers: 2028 delegate allocation in the Republican presidential nomination process

Over at FHQ Plus...

In researching the recent post on the Republican early calendar rules for 2028, FHQ ran across a couple of items that, while neither fit in there, merit some mention in this space. One is minor -- South Carolina Republican allocation -- and the other, one that will likely ultimately fall into the same minor category, has major implications for how delegates will be allocated in the Republican process in 2028 as things stand now. I explore both in depth over at FHQ Plus.

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Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

The national party rules seem to say yes, but...

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"South Carolina and Nevada Fight to Kick Off Democrats’ 2028 Presidential Calendar"

Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times has the latest on the two frontrunners for the Democrats' top primary calendar spot for 2028:

"South Carolina and Nevada have emerged as the two front-runners to begin the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar, but their jockeying has grown acrimonious and pitted Black and Latino party leaders against each other, according to interviews with more than a dozen party officials involved in the discussions.

"A powerful panel of 49 insiders of the Democratic National Committee is set to meet this week in Washington to sketch out the order of the early-state calendar. The full party body would then vote next month to finalize the choices."

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Noteworthy: There is a lot in Goldmacher's piece, but let me offer a few thoughts on where the process to select the four or five states that will make up the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar is:

1. Remember, there may or may not be a vote on this matter at the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meeting this week. 

2. Still, South Carolina and Nevada seemingly lead for the top slot. And while it is good to have that progress report, it is also true that around this time last year the chatter was about Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada having a leg up for first-in-the-nation. Things change. But importantly, time is running out (even if the RBC vote is delayed beyond this week).

3a. It is striking that New Hampshire is not in the mix for the first spot. In some ways, the Granite state's absence is understandable. The 2024 experience between the state party in New Hampshire and the national party was, well, rocky and Democrats in the Granite state broke the rules before they ultimately complied with them. That is not to say that this is retribution on the part of the DNC. The support seemingly just is not there on a revamped RBC. And it is notable that workarounds like pairing New Hampshire and Nevada's primaries on the same day are not being floated this time around as in 2022. But New Hampshire remains in good position to be granted a waiver for some spot in the early window, but probably not first.

3b. That New Hampshire appears to be on the outside looking in with respect to the leadoff spot suggests a number of things. That the DNC is up to repeating the same fight for 2028. That the national party feels comfortable that the harsher penalties it is likely to adopt next month in Austin will keep rogue states in check.

4. The fifth spot, according to Goldmacher's sources, seems to be coming down to a couple of blue states (with unified Democratic control of state government) with other states from their respective regions vying for the top spot. In fact, it appears that the fifth slot may hinge on whether South Carolina or Nevada goes first. If South Carolina gets the nod, then New Mexico would join Nevada and give the early window two western states. If it is Nevada, then Virginia would, alongside South Carolina, be a second southern state before Super Tuesday. 

5. There appears to be some friction on the RBC about the timing of this decision. Some members of the panel appear poised to vote on the early calendar lineup now while others want to wait. As Goldmacher writes about the former group:

Others believe that waiting could cause a mangled mess, because it would probably mean that candidates would announce their bids before a final calendar had been set.

That really is not a good reason to vote now. Prospective candidates are already doing the things that presidential candidates do before announcing their candidacies. Voting to finalize the calendar now is not going to affect any of that one way or another. Those announcements are an arbitrary point in the process. And regardless, the calendar rules may be set ahead of the announcement window, but the calendar is not set until states and state parties do their part next year. I mean, that is FrontloadingHQ 101.

And as I argued earlier today, waiting until after the midterms likely maximizes the ways in which the pieces available to the RBC can be moved around in the early window. Or alternatively, the states considered "may not be limited all that much by a decision now, but where those pieces could be moved around in the early window of the primary calendar would be greatly constrained."

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

At FHQ Plus: Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

Over at FHQ Plus...

The early 2028 calendar: Democratic change, Republican stability

The running assumption with respect to the 2028 presidential primary calendar — the early window of it anyway — is that the Democratic National Committee will reprise its 2024 calendar process and, at a bare minimum, explore changes to the states that will comprise the lineup of early contests in the presidential nomination process for the coming cycle. Actually, that is not an assumption at all. Democrats are in the midst of that review process with pitches for early state status from state parties involved now in the rearview. And a decision could come this week.

To the extent there is one, then, the assumption is across the aisle with Republicans and their calendar maneuvering — or lack thereof — ahead of the 2028 cycle. Reporting thus far has indicated that the GOP has adopted and appears to be sticking with a calendar rules package that is more traditional than that of their Democratic counterparts. In other words, the assumption has been that the Republican National Committee is very likely to sign off on and stick with the traditional lineup of early state contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The ultimate Republican rules will not likely specify it — they have not in past cycles and do not in the current (convention-adopted) rules for 2028 — but the expectation is that Iowa’s caucuses will precede the New Hampshire primary and that the Republican contests in Nevada and South Carolina will follow thereafter in some order. Yet, that expectation may not match reality in the end and for a variety of reasons. Over at FHQ Plus, I will explore those reasons that rules-based expectations may or may not be reflected in the eventual lineup of states on the 2028 presidential primary calendar.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

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DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Votes to Strengthen Penalties for Violations of Early Window of Presidential Nominating Calendar

DNC press release:

At this week’s meeting, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) voted to strengthen penalties for states that hold or candidates who participate in an unsanctioned contest in the early window of the presidential nominating calendar. The RBC is working diligently to establish a calendar that delivers the strongest possible nominee for president. These strengthened rules aim to enforce a fair and orderly nominating process by providing clarity for both states and candidates. Importantly, these changes are being implemented early in the process, prior to a decision on the calendar and before any candidates are in the field, to ensure fairness to all parties.

Highlights from the changes include:

• Increasing the delegates lost for states that host an unsanctioned contest from 50% to 100%, including all automatic delegates.
• Requiring campaigns and candidates to denounce any efforts to campaign on their behalf in unsanctioned contests, expanding existing requirements beyond just a ban on direct participation.
• Prohibiting candidate participation in DNC debates, if that candidate or their campaign violates the early window rules.
• Prohibiting candidates who violate the rules from earning delegates in any early window contest.
• Implementing a $270,000 fine for any state that hosts an unsanctioned contest.
• Setting clear deadlines for states to establish the dates of their contests.
• Preventing backtracking on penalties for states or candidates who violate the rules.

The strengthened penalties were added via amendments to Rule 21 of the 2028 Delegate Selection Rules. The full meeting was livestreamed and can be found on the DNC’s YouTube page here.

RBC Co-Chairs Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt, Jr. released the following statement:

“Today, the Rules and Bylaws Committee completed its work on the 2028 Delegate Selection Rules, creating a fair, efficient, and rigorous process to govern how we select our 2028 nominee. These newly-adopted rules strengthen the Delegate Selection Process to ensure maximum participation and clarity.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“Democrats must retake the White House in 2028. Today, the Rules and Bylaws Committee took important steps to bring us closer to that reality by creating a clear and orderly process to deliver the strongest possible nominee.”

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Republicans are gutting southern Dem districts. Dems might front-load the South in its 2028 primaries to respond."

Lisa Kashinsky at Politico reports on the possibility of two southern states making it into the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar, post-Callais:

"Democrats are weighing whether they can use their 2028 primary calendar to try to rebuild their party’s strength in the South amid aggressive GOP gerrymanders.

"As Democratic National Committee members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. Some members are now advocating for two southern states to make the cut as the Callais ruling adds fresh urgency to Democrats’ long-running debate over how to amplify the voices of Black voters who have long been the party’s backbone."

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Noteworthy: A couple of thoughts about this...

1. Even before the Callais decision came down, it was true that approaching a majority of the states -- five of 12 -- that applied for a waiver from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold an early contest in 2028 were from the south. That has not changed following the decision. As I said at our sister site, FHQ Plus back in January: "The only other mysteries are if there will be a fifth state and which state that may be. The overrepresentation of southern states in the pool may give the region an advantage in claiming a second spot among the would-be five early states. Granted, that is far from guaranteed." Post-Callais, that overrepresentation of the South positions the DNC to make a statement with the calendar. [Side note: Bear in mind also that the DNC attempted to get two southern states into the early window for 2024 as well.]
2. As a counterpoint, however, look at the 2028 presidential primary calendar and consider the southern states that have applied for early state status...

• North Carolina? Super Tuesday.
• Tennessee? Super Tuesday.
• Virginia? Super Tuesday.
• Georgia? Regardless of the partisan affiliation of the next Secretary of State in the Peach state, they can easily -- and without penalty from either party -- set a Super Tuesday date for the Georgia primary. 
• And hey, throw in Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas? All Super Tuesday primaries.

There is an argument that the calendar is already frontloaded with southern states, a remnant of Republican efforts across the region to create an "SEC primary" ahead of 2016. The only thing that separates those states above from the early window on the 2028 calendar is at most a week and possibly even just a weekend before Super Tuesday. That does not preclude the RBC from granting early state waivers to two southern states, but such a move may or may not be superfluous given how southern-tinged the front of the calendar already is. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"5 Southern Democratic chairs say South Carolina should lead off 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Meg Kinard at the AP sets the stage for the presentation South Carolina Democrats will make to the Rules and Bylaws Committee for going early in 2028:

"Democratic leaders in a handful of southern states are lobbying for South Carolina to reprise its role as the party’s first-in-the-nation state to cast primary ballots in 2028, arguing that the state best represents the initial playing field for presidential candidates to build the coalitions needed to win.

"The state party chairs of five Democratic parties wrote a letter Thursday to the Democratic National Committee calling on party leaders 'to do everything in your power to ensure South Carolina continues to serve as the indispensable first proving ground for Democratic presidential nominees.' The DNC is currently debating the order in which states will vote in the next round of presidential primaries.

"The state should hold the first presidential balloting in 2028, they argued, in part because it 'is not simply a geographic starting point. It is a moral and political compass for our party and our nation.'”

...

“'The fight for voting rights is no longer just a courtroom battle, it is an electoral one,' the Democratic chairs from Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia wrote in the letter, provided to The Associated Press ahead of its release. 'And it begins in South Carolina.'”

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Noteworthy: There are five states from the south, including South Carolina, that have applied with the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold early contests in 2028. The Democrat chairs in all of the other southern states, save Florida and Texas, back the Palmetto state's bid to go not only early but first. It is an endorsement that will likely carry some weight with the members of the RBC, coming from fellow DNC members. 

Now, it may not ultimately prove decisive in this selection process, but this is an endorsement that will not hurt South Carolina Democrats' case for an early slot in 2028. 

And it is worth noting that this sort of endorsement from fellow regional allies is unique so far to the presentation stage of the selection process. No other applicant states have brought forth anything similar in their pitches to the panel.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"Democrats to pitch new-look Iowa Caucuses in bid to go first once more"

Brianne Pfannenstiel at the Des Moines Register shares the latest on Iowa Democrats push to return to the early window for 2028:

"Iowa Democrats will travel to Washington, D.C., this week to pitch a streamlined caucus plan they hope will convince national party leaders that Iowa deserves another shot to be at the front of the presidential nominating calendar."

...

"Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart has argued repeatedly that the [DNC Rules and Bylaws] committee should reconsider Iowa as Democrats work to regain ground with rural, working-class voters who have fled the party in droves.

"'In order to do that, we've got to have a state like Iowa where any Democratic presidential candidate can compete, where it's affordable and where the candidates can look forward to getting up close and personal and really understanding the issues that will bring us back to an understanding of working class voters,' Hart told the Des Moines Register."

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Noteworthy: The devil, as always, is in the details.

More will obviously be revealed when the Iowa Democratic delegation makes its case before the RBC this week, but one thing is clear in Pfannenstiel's interview with Chair Hart: The old caucuses are gone. 

There would be no more physical gathering in groups at caucus sites, determining viability (15 percent support) and realigning among viable groups to begin the process of calculating state delegate equivalents for the next steps in the overall caucus/convention process. All of that is out, streamlined and replaced by paper ballots similar to those used in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus process but to be preceded by an absentee voting period in the lead up to the caucus meeting (a carry over from the 2024 Democratic process).

Part the RBC will likely enjoy seeing included: the streamlined process. Anything that appears miles simpler than the 2020 process will go a long way.

Part(s) the RBC may push back on: Not only having a party-run process lead off (or be early on) the 2028 presidential primary calendar, but having a heretofore untested new (albeit simplified) party-run process be a part of the early window. Of the 12 states applying for an early window waiver, only Iowa is proposing a party-run affair. The remaining 11 all have state-run presidential primary elections. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone