Showing posts with label Alaska. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alaska. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/11/20) -- Alaska Raises Trump's Total

 Update for the morning of November 11.


New tranche of counted ballots in the Last Frontier puts Alaska in President Trump's column. 

Biden leads in Arizona (no consensus call) and Georgia (uncalled with upcoming hand recount) while Tump has the edge in North Carolina (uncalled but results likely after November 12 deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive).

To this point, the 2020 map looks like the 2016 map with the exception of Biden flips in Michigan, Nebraska's second congressional district, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Thursday, October 29, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/29/20)

Update for October 29.


Well, it is too bad there were not any new polls on the Thursday before the election concludes next week. Oh wait.

With five days left in the general election campaign there was actually a flood of new state-level polling data. Here at FHQ 34 surveys from 18 states spanning all six categories were released since the last update to the projection yesterday. In two-thirds of those states, the additional polls moved the FHQ average margins in Joe Biden's direction. And that, too, encompassed states in all six categories. But President Trump was not without a silver lining in the face of all that. Margins in both Arizona and Minnesota pushed toward him on the day. However, despite another day of subtle movements, little changed in the meta-analysis. It was another date marked off the calendar in which Trump failed to meaningfully cut into Biden's advantage across the country.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 58, Biden 39 via AU-Montgomery )
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.88] 
Trump 57, Biden 37 in September poll
If this was a day that mostly maintained the status quo in the race for the White House, then the latest update from Auburn University in Montgomery is a solid lead off example. There not only was not much movement from September to now in the series, but the new poll closely tracks with the 58-38 (rounded) edge Trump has in the Yellowhammer state. Overall, that is enough to make Alabama safe for the president next week, but it is in line to shift toward the Democrats by about eight points since 2016.


Alaska
(Trump 52, Biden 43 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.34] 
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Alaska: Trump 50, Biden 44 (rounded)]
Recall that Alaska was a state where Trump barely topped 50 percent in 2016. That has been true in most polls in 2020, including this new Gravis survey of the Last Frontier. All that means that Trump has not exactly built on his win there four years ago, but he also has not lost much. Biden, on the other hand, more than seven points ahead of Clinton's 2016 share of support on election day in 2020 polling. That is enough to make Alaska more competitive, but not enough to get in the likely range of what the former vice president should expect on a really good night next Tuesday.


Arizona
(Trump 49, Biden 45 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 47, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.90] 
Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 48, Trump 46 in last poll
Ipsos: Biden 50, Trump 46 in last poll
If there was one state today where that broke with the status quo, it was Arizona. There was movement in the Grand Canyon state in Trump's direction in both updates released in the state today. The Pulse update to a recent poll was reminiscent of the InsiderAdvantage survey released out of Pennsylvania earlier this week. Both saw a fairly dramatic shift, poll-to-poll, from Biden to the president. And neither really matches the movement -- or lack thereof -- in October polling. Although the Pulse survey is astray of the 48-45 (rounded) advantage Biden has in Arizona at FHQ, it has Trump at the top of his range and Biden at the bottom of his. 


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 46 via Monmouth | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Marist | Biden 45, Trump 42 via Quinnipiac | Biden 48, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.14] 
Monmouth: Biden 49, Trump 46 in September poll
Marist: Biden 48, Trump 48 in September poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 40 in early October poll
Ipsos: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
[NOTE: Using data from the high turnout Monmouth model -- a 51-45 Biden advantage -- would have increased the average FHQ margin to Biden +3.16 in Florida.]
With the exception of the Quinnipiac survey, which updated an outlier from a couple of weeks ago, Biden benefited from the updates in the other three polls that were released in Florida today. There was not movement toward Biden in all of them, but his advantages stretched in all three. More importantly, the Democratic nominee hit 50 percent in that trio of Sunshine state surveys as well. Like the discussion about Arizona polling a day ago, there may be evidence of some narrowing in Florida as well. But it is offset by how frequently Biden has been at or above 50 percent in recent Florida polling. The former vice president has been at or beyond the majority mark in 41 of 108 surveys in the Sunshine state this year. And nearly half of that 41 -- 19 surveys -- have found Biden hitting or exceeding 50 percent in just October alone. 


Georgia
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.40] 
Biden 47, Trump 46 in early October poll
At first glance, little change from the early October Georgia poll from PPP, but then, that is par for the course in this series in 2020. Other than the June poll in which Biden led by four, the remaining surveys have all 1) had him ahead and 2) by margins in the one to two point range. This poll not only fits that trend, but is consistent with where most of the recent polling has been in the Peach state. 


Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.64] 
Biden, 50, Trump 45 in early October poll 
FHQ does not know if Quinnipiac was spooked by that Florida outlier cited above, but today's batch from the university pollster seems to be a correction of some form. That may or may not be the case, but the percentage of undecideds grew from the last poll to now in three of the four polls including this Iowa survey. Only in Pennsylvania did the share of undecideds decrease. Regardless, that dynamic, whether a correction of some sort or natural movement (not really seen in other state-level polling) has closed the gap in Iowa from a poll just a couple of week ago. And it is also true that the last round of Q-polls were simple outliers and this is a regression to the mean. This Iowa poll is consistent with the 47-46 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. But that undecided shift is a curious footnote.


Maine
(Biden 53, Trump 39 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.54] 

Maine CD1
(Biden 59, Trump 40 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.36] 

Maine CD2
(Biden 51, Trump 49 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.77] 
No previous Survey USA poll [Current FHQ averages in ME CD2: Biden 46, Trump 45 (rounded)]
FHQ will not dwell on this new Survey USA survey that encompassed all three jurisdictions with electoral votes at stake in the Pine Tree state. The second congressional district will be the most competitive of the bunch and the ranked choice voting-simulated version of that poll -- one that took second, third and fourth preferences -- gave the former vice president a two point edge that closely resembles the projected advantage he currently holds for that one electoral vote. There has not been a ton of polling in these two Maine districts, but what has been in the field has tended to favor Biden more often than not. 


Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 42 via Mitchell Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.21] 
Biden 51, Trump 41 in mid-October poll
The Mitchell poll a week ago was on the upper end of the margins Biden has enjoyed in recent polling of the Great Lakes state, and the update this week ahead of the election does not look that much different. It still has Biden on the upper end of his range in the state and Trump near the bottom of his. This poll does expand the Democratic nominee's advantage in Michigan, but not by much. 


Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 42 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.39] 
Biden 48, Trump 42 in last week's poll
The new Survey USA poll of Minnesota is not that different from the Michigan update above. But it is, perhaps, on the opposite end of the spectrum. There was not much change from one week to the next through a Survey USA lens that has Biden at the bottom of his October range and Trump consistent with his FHQ average share of support in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Survey USA has also conducted three of the nine October surveys in Minnesota and has provided three of the four instances in which Biden has failed to reach 50 percent in the state. 


Montana
(Trump 52, Biden 45 via MSU-Billings)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.76] 
No previous MSU-Billings poll [Current FHQ averages in Montana: Trump 51, Biden 44 (rounded)]
First of all, this MSU-Billings survey of the Treasure state is consistent with the established FHQ average. But it also adds even more evidence to the massive potential shift there from 2016 to now. The existing Montana polling points to a more than 13 point swing toward the Democrats. That is enough to pull Montana into the Lean Trump category, but that is probably it. Still, that potential shift highlight just how uncompetitive Montana ended up being four years ago. 


New Hampshire
(Biden 58, Trump 39 via American Research Group | Biden 53, Trump 43 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.13] 
American Research Group: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll
There was little movement in the UMass-Lowell series in the Granite state from September to now, but that was not the case in the ARG series. As surprising as it may seem, the Alabama poll above and this ARG survey of New Hampshire mirror each other. And yes, Alabama is closer than is typical of the Yellowhammer state in presidential elections, but an equivalent 19 point gap in New Hampshire grabs the attention. That is doubly true for a state that was tight in 2016 and that the president's reelection effort was targeting earlier in this cycle. [The president was just there over the weekend too.] Given a uniform swing from four years ago, New Hampshire would not be competitive necessarily, but it also would not likely by tipped nearly 20 points in Biden's direction either.


New Jersey
(Biden 61, Trump 37 via Rutgers/Eagleton)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.74] 
Biden 56, Trump 33 (among registered voters) in May poll
That Biden has hit 60 percent in the update to May's Rutgers/Eagleton poll of New Jersey is noteworthy in and of itself. He has only reached those heights in a couple of the Survey Monkey polls of the Garden state this year. But it also serves to highlight just how little the former vice president has improved on Clinton's showing in New Jersey four years ago. It stands out as the exception rather than the rule. The president, on the other hand, has been consistently in the upper 30s there, a little more than four points off his 2016 pace there.


North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85] 
Siena: Biden 46, Trump 42 in earlier October poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 47, Trump 47 in September poll
The Citizen Data survey (described as part of the collective wave below) did all the heavy lifting in pushing the FHQ average margin in North Carolina closer to Biden +2, but the other two polls of the Tar Heel state released today maintained the status quo. Neither the Siena nor the UMass-Lowell surveys saw any substantial shifts from the last polls in those respective series and neither update differs much from the range of polls out of North Carolina in October (or the rest of the year for that matter). Biden continues to maintain a 48-46 (rounded) advantage at FHQ.


Ohio
(Trump 49, Biden 47 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 48, Trump 43 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67] 
No previous Gravis poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 48, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
While the first Gravis poll in the Buckeye state is in line with the small lead that Trump has had there throughout much of 2020, the Quinnipiac survey is not. But unlike the Florida and Iowa Q-polls, the one in Ohio swung toward Biden and not the president. It did, however, see the share of undecideds grow from the previous poll in the series. That drew in the margin, pushing Ohio closer to the partisan line, but the Buckeye state remains a state that is close but slightly tilted toward the president. The wiggle room in Ohio polling is that neither candidate has really been north of 50 percent much all year. Of the 42 polls that have been in the field there in 2020, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark only eight times and Biden has only done so in three surveys. Trump is the only one to get there in October, but even then, only once.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 45 via RMG Research | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Franklin and Marshall)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.41] 
RMG Research: Biden 49, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Franklin and Marshall: Biden 48, Trump 42 in September poll
If there is any new Pennsylvania poll out, then odds are it will have Biden around 50 percent and Trump somewhere in the mid-40s. All three polls fit that mold today, and while both the RMG and the Franklin and Marshall polls showed positive movement for both candidates, both new surveys maintained the margins from the previous polls in each series. This string of polls nudged Biden that much closer to 50 percent in the averages at FHQ as well.


Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.40] 
UMass-Lowell: Trump 49, Biden 46 in September poll 
Minimal movement from one UMass-Lowell survey of Texas to the next did little to change the outlook in the Lone Star state. Trump still has the advantage in a state that continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump side of the partisan line: close, but consistently tipped toward the president. And like North Carolina, it was the Citizen Data survey that triggered the changes in the Texas average margin.


Vermont
(Biden 62, Trump 32 via co/efficient)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +36.71] 
No previous co/efficient poll [Current FHQ averages in Vermont: Biden 66, Trump 30 (rounded)]
A rare Vermont poll failed to offer any real suspense. The Green Mountain state is a heavy Biden lean off on the far left end of the order on the Electoral College Spectrum, and other than Biden ending up closer to 60 percent rather than 70 percent, this poll -- an internal Republican survey for the lieutenant governor's race in Vermont -- did not stray too far from what one might expect. Still, Vermont is one of those states where the 2020 polling relative to where the candidates ended up in 2016 is a tad askew. While Trump hovers near where he was in Vermont -- lagging less than a point behind his 2016 pace -- Biden is more than nine points out in front of Clinton from four years ago. 


Virginia
(Biden 51, Trump 39 via Virginia Commonwealth)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.84] 
Biden 53, Trump 39 in September poll 
In the Old Dominion, Biden lost a couple of points in the VCU poll since its last survey in September. Both candidates fall a couple of points shy of their FHQ average shares of support in this latest update, but the margin is right on target. That further cements Virginia as something other than  the battleground it has been in recent cycles. 


Citizen Data (October battleground polls -- initial wave of releases):
Ohio: Trump 44, Biden 43
Texas: Biden 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Biden 48, Trump 44
Florida: Biden 50, Trump 45
Pennsylvania: Biden 44, Trump 39
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 44
Michigan: Biden 50, Trump 41

This strange set of polls from Citizen Data was made all the more strange by the correction it had to make to a Texas poll that initially (and mistakenly) indicated that Biden was ahead by ten points. A four point lead for the vice president in the Lone Star state is already off to the extreme Biden end of of the range in Texas polling. If that was not enough, the order of states in this wave is not at all consistent with the established order at FHQ. North Carolina being to the Biden side of both Florida and Pennsylvania stands out, but then again the undecideds/others-inflated totals in that survey of the Keystone state do as well. 



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

On the weight of two new polls -- especially that ARG poll -- New Hampshire shifts off the Watch List. It is now outside of a point of moving into the Lean Biden category and is a more comfortable Strong Biden state. 

Similarly, a wide margin in the latest New Jersey poll pushed the Garden state past Oregon in the order and one cell away from the partisan line. New Jersey is a safe Strong Biden state as well.

But again, this was another day of subtle changes here at FHQ and not the sort of big changes that the president needs at this late date. The electoral vote tally remains at Biden, 351-187 despite the changes further out in the order on the Spectrum and on the Watch List. 

5 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 29 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/21/20)

Update for October 21.


As the race for the White House approaches the final debate on Thursday, the polling began to heat up. With one day until that last presidential debate there were a total of 29 new polls released from 15 states representing all of the FHQ categories but the Strong Trump states. There is a lot to look at, so... 

...on to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 50, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.03]
Public Policy Polling was last in the field with a survey in Alaska in July. Then it was 50-44, Trump. In those three intervening months little has seemingly changed. And this one falls pretty close to the FHQ averages for both candidates. The big thing in the Last Frontier is that Trump barely surpassed 50 percent in 2016 and is hovering around it now. Biden, on the other hand, has pulled much closer than where Clinton was in November 2016.


Arizona
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 47, Trump 46 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.06]
The two pollsters with new surveys out today in the Grand Canyon state are new to Arizona this cycle. As such, there is no natural comparison for either. However, the current FHQ averages currently have it at Biden 48-45 (rounded) and the truth is that both surveys fall within both candidates ranges in most recent polls. Arizona continues to be a state that is narrowly but consistently tipped in Biden's direction as election day nears.


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 46 via CNN | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Civiqs)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.33]
Another of those close states with Biden typically but not always ahead is Florida. But the difference in the Sunshine state compared to Arizona is that the former vice president has begun to inch more toward 50 percent. Of the 23 surveys conducted in whole or in part in October, Biden has been at or above the majority mark in 11 of those polls. Trump is close, but that Biden is approaching 50 percent is a red flag. And Biden is at or above 50 percent in both of today's polls. However, the CNN poll is only marginally different its last survey there in July when it was 51-46, Biden. That is not a piece of evidence that helps to build a story of big change in this race. [The Civiqs survey was its first in Florida this cycle.] 


Iowa
(Biden 48, Trump 48 via Emerson | Biden 46, Trump 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 45, Trump 45 via Insider Advantage | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Monmouth)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.73]
If Biden hitting 50 percent in a couple of Florida polls was a red flag, then the former vice president leading or tied in four new polls in the Hawkeye state is another for the Trump reelection effort. The president needs both states to get to 270, but with Iowa now back on the Watch List (below), a state that he won by nine in 2016 is now close to tied. And more importantly, that swing is indicative of the shift toward the Democrats in 2020 polling from election day four years ago. Emerson and Insider Advantage are new to Iowa and in the Siena poll Biden maintained the three point edge he had in the September. The focus, then, will be on the noisier Monmouth series. A race knotted at 47-47 in August shifted in Trump's direction in September (49-46, Trump) and has swung back hard in Biden's direction in October. And all of these use the low turnout model that the university pollster utilizes. Typically that has favored the president, but in this case the low turnout version was actually better for Biden than the high turnout model. The bottom line in Iowa is that if it is among the most competitive states on election day, then the Democratic nominee is likely within range of 270 electoral votes (if not more).


Kansas
(Trump 54, Biden 42 via Public Policy Polling | Trump 56, Biden 39 via co/efficient)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +9.13]
The Sunflower state has shown signs in some 2020 polling of being closer than usual. And while that is consistent with a swing toward the Democrats, the shift in Kansas at FHQ has been nearly 11 points since to this point, an above average swing from four years ago. Nevertheless, the two polls out there today find the president with double digit leads. PPP has conducted three polls in Kansas and had Trump in the 50s each time and Biden lagging in the lower 40s. But the co/efficient survey is simultaneously Trump's peak and Biden's nadir in Kansas polling this year. Trump will win Kansas in November, but the question is whether it continues to show an above average Democratic shift or snaps back into a place in the range like these two surveys today.


Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]
The Ipsos Michigan poll is hardly different from the firm's survey there a week ago. Biden is up a point and that is it. Again, polling in the Great Lakes state is settling into a space where the margins more often than not end up in the 6-9 point range in Biden's favor. And this survey nudges the former vice president a little closer to the 50 percent in the averages. 


Minnesota
(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.37]
The first Civiqs poll of Minnesota in 2020 finds the Democratic nominee out to a double digit lead. That is not uncommon in polling of the Land of 10,000 Lakes, but this poll does have Biden toward the top of his range (and above his FHQ average share of support) while the president is relatively static in the lower 40s where he has been in most Minnesota surveys. And that is not a winning position in a state the president had held out some hope of flipping this year after a narrow Clinton win there in 2016.


Nevada
(Biden 52, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.09]
Civiqs was also in the field in Nevada. Here, too, it was the pollster's first go of it in the Silver state. And like the Minnesota survey above, the Nevada poll has Biden running out in front of his FHQ average at the top of his range in polling there this cycle. Meanwhile, the president came in around where he has been in Nevada polling all year. This is another oft-discussed flip opportunity for the president's campaign, but an average share around 44 percent at FHQ is not going to do it without some current Biden supporters coming over (or staying at home and/or not returning their mail ballots). There just are not enough undecideds to make up the difference in the Silver state. 


New Jersey
(Biden 56, Trump 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.33]
Look, New Jersey is not going to be anything other than solidly blue next month, and the consistency of the DKC Analytics series of polls has spoken to that all year. Biden has been in the 50s and Trump in the 30s across the four polls of the series. But this is the widest margin in any of those surveys and is in line with the FHQ averages in the Garden state. The more interesting thing in New Jersey continues to be that Biden has not improved on Clinton's showing the state. All of the shift, then, is on the Trump side, and the president has dropped what is now approaching five points.


New Mexico
(Biden 54, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.45]
New Mexico is the rare state in 2020 where both major party candidates are running ahead of their parties' performance in 2016. That would be a silver lining for the Trump campaign if not for the fact that Biden has to this point run more than four points ahead of Clinton's pace in the Land of Enchantment while the president has only improved on his showing there by a couple of points. And the new GBAO survey of New Mexicans did little to alter that general picture of Biden over 50 percent and Trump trailing in the low 40s. Like a couple of other states above, New Mexico has also been talked about at a potential opportunity for the president. Most polls there, however, do not reflect that.


North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81]
Ipsos has now conducted four polls in the Tar Heel state in 2020 and this latest is the first to show the race as anything other than tied between Biden and Trump. And the change brings Ipsos in line with the overall FHQ averages in North Carolina. As it stands now at FHQ with more than 100 polls in the state, Biden holds a 48-46 (rounded) lead. It is a narrow but consistently advantage of the ilk of those in both Arizona and Florida.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 53, Trump 43 via CNN | Biden 51, Trump 43 via Quinnipiac | Biden 49, Trump 42 via Suffolk)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.43]
If it was not for Iowa, the Pennsylvania would have had the most poll releases on the day. And technically the Keystone state has four polls too counting the Change Research survey below. Minus that poll, which is the closest the president has been in the commonwealth in any non-Trafalgar poll in a while, the picture looks quite grim for the president. Biden is hovering around 50 percent in each and Trump is mired in the low 40s. And all of those polls are more in line with the FHQ averages in the Pennsylvania (Biden 50-44, rounded), than the Change survey. This was the initial poll for both CNN and Suffolk in Pennsylvania, but the Quinnipiac survey actually showed some narrowing from the earlier October survey the university pollster released. However, this latest poll is more in line with the August Q-poll that also had Biden up eight. 

 
Texas
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.58]
Other than a rare September blip when President Trump was up five points, the series of Texas polls from Quinnipiac has found a race within one point. And that includes today's survey with Biden and Trump tied. In fact, of the nine polls in the field in whole or in part in October, seven of them have had the race within two points one way or the other. But as FHQ mentioned in yesterday's update, Texas is a lot like North Carolina but on the Trump side of the partisan line. Although, in the case of Texas that means a tight race in most (recent) polls with a smattering of surveys with Trump out in front by more than five. The Lone Star state is close, but like several of those blue states above -- Arizona, Florida and North Carolina -- is consistently tipped in one direction. Contrary to those states, Texas is tipped in the president's favor. 


Wisconsin
(Biden 46, Trump 45 via Susquehanna | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Latino Decisions)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.13]
One of these new Wisconsins polls more closely resembles the FHQ averages and it is not the Susquehanna survey. But it was the Susquehanna poll that has a point of comparison in its September poll of the Badger state. A two point Biden advantage then (48-46) has been replaced with a marginally tighter race but with both candidates worse off than they were at the end of September. In the new poll, Trump is still toward the top of his range while Biden is on the lower end of his in recent Wisconsin polling. But this is another battleground state where the president is just barely scratching into the mid-40s in most polls.



Pennsylvania: 
Biden 49, Trump 47 (Biden -1, Trump +1 since early October wave)

North Carolina: 
Biden 50, Trump 47 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Florida: 
Biden 50, Trump 45 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)

Arizona: 
Biden 51, Trump 45 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)

Michigan: 
Biden 51, Trump 44 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)

Wisconsin: 
Biden 52, Trump 44 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

FHQ will be brief here since there is no real marked change in this Change Research wave relative to the last earlier this month. But what is striking about this set is that Biden is at or over 50 percent in five of the  six core battlegrounds. That was true in the last wave, but then it was North Carolina that was the the lone state where the former vice president fell short of 50 percent. The other item of note here is the order of the states. Arizona and Florida are close enough at FHQ that one could see the two swapping spots, but Pennsylvania as the closest state of the bunch is a new wrinkle that does not match the established FHQ order. Furthermore, Wisconsin is fairly consistently closer than Michigan but it the Badger state is not here. 



The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Despite the flood of new polling data, the overarching story here at FHQ remains the same. No states changed sides nor did any change shades. That said, Kansas, on the weight of two polls with wider than typical margins, moved to the very edge of the Lean Trump group of states in the order on the Spectrum. The Sunflower state is now on the Watch List within a point of shifting up into the Strong Trump category. Kansas was joined on the Watch List by Iowa and Nevada. The former is now within a point of pushing across the partisan line into Biden territory and the latter is closer to returning to the Lean Biden category. 

Yet, Kansas is the only bright spot on the day for the president. Everywhere else, including almost every state that matters to his quest for 270 electoral votes, either held steady or inched further away from him. And at a time with just 13 days until the voting phase of this election concludes, it is another lost day for Trump through the lens of the polls. 

13 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 21 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Monday, October 19, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/19/20)

Update for October 19.


The race for the White House is just 15 days from the conclusion to the voting phase of the campaign on November 3. And 15 days out, there were a number of new surveys released including new surveys from all three blue wall states Trump flipped in 2016 and has been defending in 2020. But there were also a few polls from a number of currently Strong Biden states. No, nothing has changed for any of the three -- Colorado, Virginia and Washington -- after the addition of the new polling data, but that does provide the opportunity to assess how and to what extent things have swung in those types of states relative to more frequently polled and more competitive states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

The one dynamic that has been true in most states is that Biden has generally gained in states in 2020 polling compared to how Hillary Clinton fared on election day in 2016. President Trump, on the other hand, has tended to lose in the same comparison. But that may be the only commonality held across the trio of Strong Biden states cited above. On average, those three states have moved about seven and a half points in the Democrats' direction since 2016 (which is an above average (+6.83 points) swing). But how those effects are felt is different across those three states. In Colorado and Washington, Biden's gain compared to Clinton was more than Trump's loss from the 2016 election to polling now. And while it was close in Virginia, the president's losses were larger than what Biden has been able to add, all while the commonwealth shifted less than the average national swing. But that differs from the bluest of the Strong Biden states like California or Hawaii where Biden has seen his shares of support in 2020 polling mirror Clinton's election day performance four years ago. All the change, then, is on the Trump side of the equation. 

FHQ often talks about a uniform swing from one election to the next, and while that notion holds up well enough, there are some subtle differences. That is definitely true in the polling, but one will have to wait to see whether that is the case once the voting is over next month. Regardless, if the question is whether Colorado, Virginia and Washington fit well (or poorly) into the discussion of a uniform shift from 2016 to now, then the answer would be yes. None are exceptions to the rule and none are likely at risk of being anything other than Strong Biden states.

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 49, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.16]
The Patinkin Research Strategies survey has the battle for the Last Frontier's three electoral votes a bit closer than has been the case in most polling there in 2020. And it is not hard to figure out what is driving that. Only once has Biden been over 46 precent in the polling this year in Alaska. But Trump tended to hover around 50 percent all year in a state where he received around 51 percent of the vote in 2016. As opposed to a state like Hawaii, the changes in Alaska from 2016 to now have been on the Biden side of the equation. Trump has been remarkably steady there. And that adds up to basically an on average swing in Alaska, only it is one that has been concentrated on the Democratic side.


Colorado
(Biden 55, Trump 38 via RBI Strategies and Research | Biden 47, Trump 38 via YouGov)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.97]
Generally, Trump has been around 40 percent in the Centennial state, but in a pair of new polls there today has sunk to 38 percent, the lowest he has been in Colorado since the spring. But of these two polls, it is the RBI survey that is a bit closer to the 53-40 (rounded) advantage Biden has in the FHQ averages in the state. And the reason for the difference across the polls is the 11 percent share in the YouGov survey that are undecided. Being under 40 percent is not exactly unusual for the president in Colorado, but Biden being below 50 percent is. This is just the third survey of 22 in the field in the state in calendar 2020 that have found the vice president below the majority mark. 


Michigan
(Biden 51, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.18]
At this point there really is not that much to say about the state of play in Michigan. There are occasionally outliers that point toward a closers race in the Great Lakes state, but on the whole this is a state where Biden is consistently up in the seven to none point range in recently polling. The new Mitchell Research and Communications poll does not stray too far from that even if the margin stretches into the double digits. Compared to the FHQ averages in the state -- Biden 50-43 -- Biden is running a touch above his average while Trump is just below his. That is normal polling variation and further evidence of a steady race in Michigan.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.42]
The first of two Trafalgar Group surveys on the day comes from Pennsylvania. And if one came looking for big changes, then look elsewhere. Yes, this poll finds the race in the commonwealth closer than many if not most other polls, but it also continues the static trend in the Keystone state in Trafalgar surveys. The firm has now conducted five polls in Pennsylvania and the four latest ones have all had Biden up by two points. The only exception was a Biden +5 in the pollster's June survey during what in retrospect was Biden's strongest period in surveys all year. But again, this most recent poll like those after June is not in line with the current FHQ averages. Compared to Biden's 50-44 (rounded) edge in the averages this poll finds Trump toward the top end of his range in Pennsylvania polling and Biden in the heart of his for the most part. But if Trafalgar is steady, then it should come as no surprise that Pennsylvania remains steady around Biden +5.5 at FHQ. And that continues to be the story. 

 
Virginia
(Biden 51, Trump 42 via Cygnal [October] | Biden 52, Trump 41 via Cygnal [September])
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.89]
Alaska, Colorado and Michigan above all had new polls to day from pollsters who were in the field in those states for the first time in calendar 2020. That was true in Virginia as well. But unlike those three state, the pair of polls from Cygnal fortunately provided a natural before and after comparison and one that really showed no movement from September to October in the presidential race in the Old Dominion. The FHQ average in Virginia now sits at Biden 53-41 (rounded) and both of these new additions were consistent with that. However, it does continue to be a marvel that a state talked about as a battleground in 2008, 2012 and 2016 is not one in 2020. [And the swing there, as noted above, is less than in either Colorado or Washington.]


Washington
(Biden 60, Trump 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +24.44]
Speaking of Washington, Public Policy Polling was back in the field there for the first time since May, and in the five months since little has seemingly changed. The 59-37 advantage Biden held then is marginally bigger now, but not anything worth dwelling on. Honestly, the FHQ average in the Evergreen state has the margin there at Biden 60-35. And like a number of other polls above, this poll is consistent with that. Washington, too, is a steady race, one where Biden is running about seven points in the polls ahead of where Clinton was on election day in 2016 and Trump is about two points off his own pace. 

 
Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.20]
The other Trafalgar Group poll is from Wisconsin. Last week's two point Biden lead is still the same even if the two candidates' shares have shifted some in that time. But like the series in Pennsylvania, the Trafalgar polls in the Badger state have tended to operate in a fairly small range. Trump led by one in both the June and August polls there and Biden on the other end of the spectrum has led by no more than three. It is a tight range and steady race in Wisconsin as well. Yes, like the Pennsylvania polls, Trafalgar indicates the race is closer here also, but the story is still just how static the polling has been from the firm.  And that manifests itself by Biden existing in the heart of his range in Trafalgar surveys while Trump tends to run on the upper end of his. 



The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

It may be dangerous to play a drinking game when reading these daily updates. If one drinks every time FHQ uses the word steady, then things could get ugly and fast. But that is just what this race is: steady. The map and Watch List again remain unchanged from a day ago. However, Alaska did shift up a cell, switching places with Missouri as the most "competitive" of the Lean Trump states. Those two states and South Carolina continue to be tightly clustered together and still approaching five points away from the most proximate Toss Up Trump state (Texas). But if that is what passes for change this late in the race, then are pretty well locked in where it counts. That is not to say that things cannot change either in polling or in the voting process, but it is going to take a break from this current trajectory (or lack thereof) to do it for a president who is playing catch up.

15 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 19 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.