Friday, May 19, 2023

The Disconnect on Iowa and New Hampshire 2024

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • With the end of its legislative session approaching, it looks as if New York will set in motion its unique method of codifying the presidential primary date and delegate allocation rules for 2024. All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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One thing that FHQ has noticed in this week's renewed chatter about Iowa, New Hampshire and the 2024 presidential primary calendar is that stories about possible uncertainty at the front of the calendar keep sporadically popping up. But those stories arise almost in isolation from the coverage of the evolving race for the Republican presidential nomination. Folks, whether in the campaigns or media or even at the national party level, acknowledge that some calendar uncertainty exists, but most everyone is behaving as if Iowa will have the first Republican contest in 2024 followed by the primary in the Granite state. 

Yes, there are exceptions to that behavior. New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is doing what secretaries of state in New Hampshire do: He is defending the first-in-the-nation turf by remaining coy, leaving open the door to the possibility that he may schedule the primary for some time in 2023 if necessary. And Jake Lahut's story at The Daily Beast asks a smart question -- that honestly FHQ has not really seen in the press -- about just how prudent the DeSantis team's full-court press to come in Iowa is given that there is a possibility that New Hampshire may jump the caucuses in the Hawkeye state on the calendar. 

However, those are exceptions to the current conventional wisdom it seems. And that suggests something. It suggests that the campaigns and other actors have reasonable confidence -- maybe blind faith -- that the calendar stuff will sort itself out like it always seems to do. That Iowa's Republican caucuses will lead off the process in January next year with the primary in New Hampshire being held a week and a day later. It will be a process, but given what FHQ written in recent days, it does look like it will all work out. The process the Iowa Democrats will likely use will not be a threat to New Hampshire (or should not be viewed that way anyway) and that will allow the calendar to proceed as planned on the Republican side. It may be a little earlier than anticipated -- a January and not February start -- but it will likely progress in the order implied in RNC rules.


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The 2024 Republican presidential primary field appears as if it will add to its current list of candidates in the coming week, but chatter, if not the number of other signals, is picking up for other potential aspirants not named DeSantis (or Scott). 

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It has been a busy week in the endorsement primary. FHQ has covered some of the DeSantis endorsement roll outs in this space this week, but that by no means has been all that has occurred. In no particular order... 

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On the travel primary front, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has been making the rounds in Iowa this week.


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Trump added to his campaign in first-in-the-South primary state of South Carolina. New staff primary hires to the Palmetto team include former Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer, former Nancy Mace campaign manager, Austin McCubbin, and Justin Evans, who was on the Trump White House advance team in 2020.


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On this date...
...in 1980, Utahns in both political parties caucused across the Beehive state.

...in 1992, President George H.W. Bush and Arkansas Governor won their respective primaries in Oregon. Bush also won in neighboring Washington. The Washington Democratic primary was a beauty contest that Clinton won, but delegates were allocated through earlier caucuses in the Evergreen state.

...in 2020, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden won in Oregon.



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