Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/31/12)

FHQ gobbled up all of the late week polls that were slow emerging over the weekend. That made for a quiet Monday and obviously no change to the current outlook. On Tuesday, that changed.

New State Polls (7/31/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.3%
871 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+1.19
Missouri
7/30
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
50
3
+6
+6.39

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
All has been quiet on the Florida front since the surprising +5 Obama poll was released out of the Sunshine state by Survey USA over a week ago. Public Policy Polling was in the field over the weekend, however, and found what a great many of the other polls in the state have found: a dead heat.  Most polls since May have shown a race that slightly -- and I mean slightly -- favors the president, but one that rarely indicates a race anymore than +4 in one direction or the other. The PPP poll was the same with (likely voter) respondents giving Obama a 48-47 edge.

Missouri:
Last week, FHQ wanted to call Missouri underpolled, but three polls later, perhaps we have a clear reason why that has been. Mitt Romney simply -- and not all that surprisingly really -- holds a comfortable advantage in the Show-Me state. Mind you, Missouri has never been any closer than three points -- in an April Rasmussen poll -- and the existing Republican margin in the state has been highlighted even more after this latest flurry of polling activity there. In a steady race, Missouri has been pretty steady and will likely remain that way: Steady Romney.


What do either of these polls mean for the map or the Electoral College Spectrum? Well, nothing really.  The map is stationary. Meanwhile neither poll shifted either state much at all, since both were consistent with the prevailing weighted average anyway. Missouri is in Romney's column and Florida is the first line of defense -- albeit one with a tenuous but consistent to this point grasp on the position -- on the blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Somewhat surprisingly, trading out a +5 Obama poll for a +1 Obama poll did not have all that big of a statistical impact on the FHQ weighted average. The margin only dipped .02 of a point. Importantly, that keeps Florida off of the Watch List.

...for now.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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