Monday, November 7, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)



New State Polls (11/7/16)
Morning Polls
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
11/1-11/2
+/-2.27%
1863 likely voters
42
41
6
+1
+3.91
Florida
11/1-11/2
+/-2.02%
2352 likely voters
45
48
3
+3
--
Florida
11/3-11/6
+/-3.3%
884 likely voters
46
45
5
+1
+1.98
Georgia
11/6
+/-2.8%
1200 likely voters
46
49
2
+3
+3.04
Missouri
11/4-11/5
+/-3.5%
750 likely voters
41
47
4
+6
+8.02
Nevada
11/1-11/2
+/-2.31%
1793 likely voters
45
46
4
+1
--
Nevada
11/4-11/5
+/-3.9%
600 likely voters
47
46
2
+1
+0.96
New Hampshire
11/4-11/5
+/-3.0%
1000 likely voters
45
44
3
+1
--
New Hampshire
11/3-11/6
+/-3.7%
707 likely voters
49
38
4
+11
+4.82
New Mexico
11/6
+/-1.8%
8439 likely voters
46
44
1
+2
+6.44
North Carolina
11/1-11/2
+/-1.92%
2596 likely voters
45
48
2
+3
--
North Carolina
11/3-11/6
+/-3.3%
870 likely voters
47
45
4
+2
--
North Carolina
11/4-11/6
+/-3.5%
800 likely voters
44
44
6
+/-0
+1.36
Ohio
11/1-11/2
+/-1.94%
2557 likely voters
44
45
3
+1
--
Ohio
10/31-11/3
--
1194 likely voters
40
43
2
+3
--
Ohio
11/4-11/5
+/-3.2%
900 likely voters
39
46
6
+7
+0.01
Pennsylvania
11/1-11/2
+/-1.89%
2683 likely voters
46
45
3
+1
+5.00
Virginia
11/1-11/2
+/-1.77%
3076 likely voters
46
44
3
+2
--
Virginia
11/4-11/6
+/-3.6%
1193 likely voters
48
42
5
+6
+6.20
Wisconsin
11/1-11/2
+/-1.88%
2720 likely voters
49
41
4
+8
+6.49
Afternoon Polls
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
11/4-11/6
+/-4.12%
550 likely voters
44
47
1
+3
+1.71
Florida
11/5-11/6
+/-3.4%
853 likely voters
48
46
1
+2
--
Florida
11/6
+/-2.89%
1100 likely voters
46
50
1
+4
+1.89
Georgia
11/3-11/5
+/-4.6%
995 likely voters
43
49
3
+6
+3.14
Michigan
11/6
+/-2.77%
1200 likely voters
47
49
1
+2
+6.51
Nevada
11/1-11/4
+/-3.02%
1100 likely voters
45
50
2
+5
+0.80
Pennsylvania
11/3-11/5
+/-2.68%
1300 likely voters
47
48
2
+1
--
Pennsylvania
11/3-11/5
+/-4.3%
931 likely voters
45
43
4
+2
+4.84
Utah
11/3-11/5
+/-2.67%
1350 likely voters
30
40
2
+10
--
Utah
11/3-11/5
+/-4.9%
762 likely voters
23
40
4
+17
+9.971
Evening Polls
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
11/1-11/2
+/-2.8%
1220 registered voters
46
45
2
+1
+1.87
Michigan
11/1-11/4
+/-3.0%
1079 registered voters
46
41
3
+5
+6.46
Nevada
11/3-11/6
+/-2.9%
1158 likely voters
45
43
5
+2
+0.83
New Mexico
11/1-11/2
+/-2.7%
1327 registered voters
45
37
2
+8
+6.58
North Carolina
11/1-11/4
+/-2.8%
1250 registered voters
46
45
3
+1
+1.36
Virginia
11/1-11/4
+/-2.7%
1362 registered voters
47
42
3
+5
--
Virginia
11/2-11/6
+/-4.4%
802 likely voters
45
41
14
+4
+6.12
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.48 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 24% in the YouGov survey and 25% support in the Trafalgar survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.39%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.


--
Changes (11/7/16) -- Early edition
One last day.
Changes (November 7 -- Morning)
StateBeforeAfter
OhioToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump
  • Ohio jumped the partisan line from Toss Up Clinton to Toss Up Trump, but note the average: +0.01. The Buckeye state is close here at FHQ. 
  • Nevada rejoins the Watch List, slipping under the Clinton +1 threshold, but the Silver state has been hovering there. 
  • Colorado slides off the Watch List. It is now just a bit more than a point from the Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the partisan line. 
  • The ZiaPoll survey of New Mexico -- given the sample size, it was the whole state -- drew the average in a bit further. It has tracked down to about a six and a half point lead for Clinton in the Land of Enchantment. That pushed New Mexico down to the lower half of the Lean Clinton group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. 
Late edition
Changes (November 7 -- Afternoon)
StateBeforeAfter
PennsylvaniaLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
  • The Trafalgar and YouGov surveys were enough of a drag on the FHQ average in Pennsylvania that the Keystone state slipped just under the Lean/Toss Up line. Pennsylvania, then, follows New Hampshire as states that have until recently been just above that line but have hopped over it into the Toss Up Clinton area. Both remain clustered around that line, however; just on the opposite side.  
  • That move also flips Pennsylvania on the Watch List, but keeps it in the same position on the Spectrum. 
  • The Trafalgar survey of Michigan is the first to show Trump ahead since 2015. It may be a sign of something in the Great Lakes state or it could be an outlier (balancing out that MSU survey from last week). Either way, it decreased the average margin enough to ease Michigan past Maine on the Spectrum. 
  • Also, Utah once again traded spots with Indiana, pushing to the very end of the Lean Trump area. The new polls out of the Beehive state nudge Trump even closer to 40 percent in the averages. Again, that will be enough to keep Clinton and McMullin at bay there and Utah in the Republican column.
Late late edition

  • The Breibart wave of last minute Gravis polling releases mostly confirmed the state of the race in each of the states. There was some shuffling among the New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin cluster in the Lean Clinton area. New Mexico bounced back slightly after pushing down that column earlier in the day. Everything else held steady.


Barring anything unforeseen or any straggler surveys, this is likely what the final map will look like on election day. There are a few polls yet to be added into the dataset (the non-Breitbart wave of Gravis polls), but the expectation is that that will not alter the bottom line any if at all. It will not where it counts in any event: Clinton 322, Trump 216.

--


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
NH-4
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MO-10
(114)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
ME-23
(195)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
NM-5
(200)
OH-18
(216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
SD-3
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
KS-6
(78)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
PA-20
(259)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)

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