Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/30/12)

With one week to go in the race for the White House, the pace of home-stretch polling is picking up some. There were 16 new surveys released from 11 states.

New State Polls (10/30/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/24-10/27
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
49
47
4
+2
+0.38
Florida
10/25-10/27
+/- 4.1%
595 likely voters
47
47
5
0
--
Florida
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
828 likely voters
47.4
46.7
3.6
+0.7
--
Georgia
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.2%
574 likely voters
44
52
2
+8
+9.47
Iowa
10/29-10/30
+/- 3.8%
676 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+2.81
Massachusetts
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
63
31
3
+32
+20.07
Michigan
10/27-10/29
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.7
45
6.3
+2.7
+5.61
North Carolina
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.8%
682 likely voters
45
50
3
+5
+1.59
North Dakota
10/26-10/28
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
40
54
3
+14
+16.04
Ohio
10/23-10/25
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
44
7
+5
+2.91
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.1%
603 likely voters
48
45
6
+3
--
Ohio
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
825 likely voters
46.8
43.6
4.4
+3.2
--
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
45
--
+3
--
Oregon
10/25-10/28
+/- 5.0%
405 likely voters
47
41
9
+6
+6.23
Texas
10/15-10/21
+/- 4.22%
540 likely voters
39
55
6
+16
+14.93
Virginia
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
829 likely voters
45.3
47.4
4.7
+2.1
+2.04

[NOTE: In an effort to catch up FHQ will dispense with the state by state observations and provide some short, overall impressions.]

The picture did not change all that much either nationally -- through the electoral college -- or on the state level with the addition of today's polls. The margins may have been a little higher than the bulk of recent polling in North Carolina or lower in Michigan (both good for Romney), but things held steady overall. Strategically, in the two largest toss up state electoral college chips (Florida and Ohio), there multiple new polls and all of the news on that front was good for the president. Obama led or was tied in all seven of those surveys.

But again, there was little change in the grand scheme of things.


The map (changes since 10/29): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/29):
Massachusetts: traded places with Illinois
North Dakota: jumped up a couple of spots toward the partisan line
Texas: flipped positions with West Virginia

We're really only talking about some shuffling among a handful of strong states. There was no movement among the toss up states. That said, it is noteworthy that Ohio and Iowa are now nearly in the same position. Those tier two states -- New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- are now nearly interchangeable in the order.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/29): No change. Only Florida and Georgia had new data and both maintained their status quo positions.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

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