Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Obama v. Romney (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.

That consistency across polls has boosted Romney, whereas his closest competitor -- at least by our measure -- Mike Huckabee has been very consistent in the Public Policy Polling surveys while lagging in other polls. Again, that speaks toward Romney's inching upward more than it speaks to Huckabee falling. For all intents and purposes, the two hold a very similar position in relation to Obama in a potential general election race. Romney has some establishment support within the Republican Party, perhaps even similar to what McCain enjoyed in 2008. However, Romney looked good heading into the 2008 primary season too only to fall by the wayside once McCain was able to string together victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida heading into the pivotal Super Tuesday states. He will have to show a lot of establishment support if he wants to avoid that fate again.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Romney)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaRomneyUndecided
Politico [Internet]
July 9-14, 2010
+/- 3.1%
1011 likely voters
393526
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
43
46
11
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
4542
13
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
464411
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
44
45
10
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5345--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
454114
Public Policy Polling
March 12-14, 2010
+/- 2.6%
1403 likely voters
44
44
12
Harris [Internet]
March 10-12, 2010
+/- --%
2344 adults
463915
Public Policy Polling
Feb. 13-15, 2010
+/- 3.5%
743 likely voters
4543
12
Public Policy Polling
Jan. 18-19, 2010
+/- 2.8%
1151 likely voters
44
42
15
Public Policy Polling
Dec. 4-7, 2009
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
474212
Rasmussen
Nov. 24, 2009
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
44
44
5
Public Policy Polling
Nov. 13-15, 2009
+/- 3%
1066 likely voters
4843
9
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 16-19, 2009
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
4840
12
Public Policy Polling
Sept. 18-21, 2009
+/- 3.9%
621 likely voters
483913
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
473815
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
474012
Rasmussen
July 16-17, 2009
+/- 3%
1000 likely voters
45
45
3
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
4940
11
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
484012
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
533512
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
503911
Average


46.341.18
--
Regression Average


42.9743.04--


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