tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post8498731819351088584..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Maps (5/7/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-71500129626021172742008-05-07T20:23:00.000-04:002008-05-07T20:23:00.000-04:00Mike,You may well be right that the polls are wort...Mike,<BR/>You may well be right that the polls are worthless <I>now</I>. But these maps reflect polls conducted between February 6 and those that were newly available yesterday. These types of polls coming out in the next few days and beyond could be worthless due to all the "Clinton is out" talk. That rubric cannot be applied to the polls prior to yesterday though.<BR/><BR/>1) I agree. I've argued throughout the process of creating these maps (see side bar under the map for previous posts) that once the Democratic nominee emerged (whoever that is--and it looks like Obama now), he or she would get a boost in the head-to-head polls. Simply removing the uncertainty of that candidate winning/not winning the nomination would be beneficial.<BR/><BR/>2) Yes, it has been awfully quiet for McCain. That should change between now and June 4, though.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67401892788563951972008-05-07T18:35:00.000-04:002008-05-07T18:35:00.000-04:00Polls now are worthless. Once a Obama is named th...Polls now are worthless. Once a Obama is named the nominee, two things will happen:<BR/><BR/>1. The party will consolidate around him, and the "no, I'll only vote for Hillary" crowd will slowly trend to Obama.<BR/><BR/>2. "Obama v McCain" will be brought into the spotlight, and McCain's free pass from the press will be over.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07328856922782820643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-79074604202415963602008-05-07T16:50:00.000-04:002008-05-07T16:50:00.000-04:00The national popular vote idea is one that has com...The national popular vote idea is one that has come up in our discussion group sessions here at UGA and, I dare say, we will be returning once the campaign fully shifts to general election mode. It is a clever way to avoid having to amend the constitution to deal with the issues attendant to the electoral college. <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.ballot-access.org/" REL="nofollow">Ballot Access News</A> has kept me abreast of the movement on the NPV front, but I'll need to reacquaint myself with the site you've linked. It has been a while since I've checked it out.<BR/><BR/>Having said that, though, these maps are an exercise in determining which Democratic candidate may fare better against McCain in the fall given the current rules.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-87772821492899466432008-05-07T12:39:00.000-04:002008-05-07T12:39:00.000-04:00Rob,My plan is to go back and take the data I used...Rob,<BR/>My plan is to go back and take the data I used to produce the first map and weight them. That may give us an idea of how much Wright affected Obama. <BR/><BR/>It is ironic though. Last week they were neck and neck, but that Quinnipiac poll in Florida helped her.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36235462634938921892008-05-07T12:27:00.000-04:002008-05-07T12:27:00.000-04:00It is ironic that at the point she gets beaten and...It is ironic that at the point she gets beaten and probably has lost the nomination that your maps are now supporting her electability argument. It will be interesting to see if Obama can capture back that shine he had before bittergate and the Wright affair. It will also be interesting to see how McCain's hard right positions that he has been announcing lately to solidify his base will play once they begin to be publicized.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com