tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post8413209698883362953..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: It WILL NOT Happen!Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-18956286326539651492010-11-18T21:40:14.285-05:002010-11-18T21:40:14.285-05:00Good points, anon10:40.
The intensity is due to ...Good points, anon10:40. <br /><br />The intensity is due to the fact that I've already made this point several times. We just won't see candidates skip New Hampshire en masse. We may see a candidate or two among the top tiers opt to allocate resources to other early states, but they won't skip the Granite state entirely.<br /><br />I don't know that I'm arguing that the "ceding Iowa to Harkin" strategy didn't work in 1992. Rather I'm pointing out that such a strategy has not worked in the intervening years in the earliest contests. It is better to go in and compete, take your chances and minimize (as best you can) any delegate advantage the state's frontrunner holds coming out of the contest.<br /><br />Yes, Clinton was a nominal frontrunner heading into 1992. He had to have something to which to come back during New Hampshire. I will grant you the point that Clinton '92 and Romney '12 are not directly analogous, but my broader point there was one concerning the expectations game.<br /><br />No, McCain's performance in Iowa in '08 was not what propelled him to victory in New Hampshire five days later. Again, my point was one of expectations. That result was better than expected and taken with the win in New Hampshire help to start a new narrative about his campaign.<br /><br />I don't know that history does suggest yielding; not widespread yielding at least. If Palin and/or Huckabee skip out that opens the door to someone else to step in and do well relative to Romney's expectations. That's a gamble. Again, a handful of candidates may limit their resources in New Hampshire but we won't see a full scale draw down.<br /><br />Thanks for commenting.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67327049651916677282010-11-16T10:40:51.424-05:002010-11-16T10:40:51.424-05:00I WILL PLAY Devil's Advocate! (Intense post t...I WILL PLAY Devil's Advocate! (Intense post title!)<br /><br />1992.<br />1. It seems ceding Iowa to Harkin SUCCEEDED in the expectations game. The win was diminished, explicitly or not, as a fave son rather than the beginning of a national consensus on nominee. He converted no momentum. You could say it was the right move for Clinton (the winner) and allowed him to focus on NH where his strong performance boosted him.<br /><br />2. Unlike the back of the pack in NH now (obviously we're a year out), Clinton had led in NH then was reeling form scandal.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary,_1992<br /><br />Ultimately, Clinton couldn't THEN pull up stakes and head to South Carolina because it would exude surrender and give the scandal traction (heading into a socially conservative state). He instead fought his way to single digit loss. This is not quite analogous to those candidates who have always widely trailed Romney in a state he ran well in last primary and probably has sky high favorables in. I take your larger point about exceeding expectations but it's not clear the prospects for doing so if you are Sarah Palin (though Ayotte might help her) or Mike Huckabee (who ran weakly in NH in 08). Trying to challenge Romney in NH could help him by lowering expectations for HIM akin to Bill Clinton 92 or Hillary Clinton 08 or McCain 08 which he could then exceed by simply winning like he was always going to. That gives him more momentum. As opposed to rope-a-dope letting him win uncontested so he boringly meets high expectations. (Btw, I don't think McCain's Iowa performance helped him at all. It was the re-allocation of resources to NH that allowed him to score a narrative-turning victory THERE.) I think history suggests yielding.<br /><br />Who wins Iowa in '12 will help form the narrative. If it's Palin or Huckabee or Barbour, it makes more sense to head right to South Carolina and try for a second win to solidify yourself as the consensus candidate while arguing Romney is just winning in his backyard NH.<br /><br />If Pawlenty, Thune or Daniels pulls off an upset in Iowa or a momentum-boosting strong second, there might be a novelty to them and they may be more palatable to NH in a way that recommends as you say going after Romney where he's strongest.<br /><br />OK.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com