tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7188680567951008805..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: North Carolina Just Made the 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar More InterestingJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-73199728631608495982013-08-15T13:07:59.073-04:002013-08-15T13:07:59.073-04:00Yes, SC can wait out NC to some extent. Past prece...Yes, SC can wait out NC to some extent. Past precedent has shown the SC waits until the final southern state falls into place and fairly quickly decides on a date thereafter. The SCGOP was right on the heels of the FL decision in 2011 and waited for the dust to settle with the FL situation in 2007 as well. That's the beauty of the NC law though. The NC primary is anchored to SC so SC can't follow that past pattern in this case.<br /><br />But I don't think it comes down to SC waiting NC out. The NCGOP is going to hear for two solid years from the RNC about the looming super penalty. NC doesn't have the type of leverage FL had in the past because all the rules-based loopholes have been closed.<br /><br />I feel like NC will have some contingencies in place by October 1, 2015 when dates have to be finalized. ...either a feet-dragging switch to caucuses or a conditional scenario that basically keeps the law the same but allows the state the latitude to use the May primary for president if they face penalties.<br /><br />We will see. But the end game is much easier to see on this one than was the case with FL in 2011 because of the rules changes on the RNC side. Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77665415159134114272013-08-13T19:06:17.551-04:002013-08-13T19:06:17.551-04:00Right, but doesn't it take time to organize a ...Right, but doesn't it take time to organize a primary? I mean, don't you have to reserve the polling locations and the like? Can that be done within the span of a couple of weeks? Or does it take two or three months? Is that timeframe equally long for both North and South Carolina?<br /><br />I'm suggesting that if South Carolina can organize theirs more quickly, they could wait out NC, and just refuse to name a date until the point where NC just has no time left to put theirs together. That is, let's say that SC waits until late December, then announces a primary date of Feb. 13, and NC realizes that they can't logistically organize their primary in time for the 16th. It's not enough time. It would be a way for SC to mess with NC if they refuse to blink.<br />astrojobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06643324377144064814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24773448625679085212013-08-13T16:43:33.228-04:002013-08-13T16:43:33.228-04:00In that case, I think SC would force NC's hand...In that case, I think SC would force NC's hand by scheduling their primary for a date that would automatically trigger the super penalty on NC. If the legislature is unable to act early in 2016 -- which would be hard considering election preparation would likely already be underway -- then the NC parties would pretty much be forced into adopting caucuses for allocating delegates.<br /><br />...leaving a beauty contest NC primary after SC. <br /><br />--<br />NC really has no choice. There is no date picking on their part. The new law is clear: if SC is before March 15, then NC is the Tuesday after SC.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-3224511873740293222013-08-12T23:21:25.513-04:002013-08-12T23:21:25.513-04:00So let's say that South Carolina wants to keep...So let's say that South Carolina wants to keep their primary on Saturday, but also wants a buffer of more than 3 days ahead of the next southern primary (in this case NC).<br /><br />What happens? South Carolina refuses to name their primary date, and waits for North Carolina to blink? At some point, one of them has to actually set a date. Let's say we reach the point of no return, where there isn't enough time left for NC to organize their primary, and they have to pick a date, but SC hasn't named their date yet? Would a judge have to pick the date then? Or the governor?<br />astrojobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06643324377144064814noreply@blogger.com