tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7097617311874905120..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Update(s): The Electoral College from a Different AngleJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84800454687881491412008-10-29T20:39:00.000-04:002008-10-29T20:39:00.000-04:00Nice addition Scott. Some good background work th...Nice addition Scott. Some good background work there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-44200513328866438452008-10-29T15:34:00.000-04:002008-10-29T15:34:00.000-04:00Thanks, Josh!A little expansion on the current sta...Thanks, Josh!<BR/><BR/>A little expansion on the current status of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<BR/><BR/>21 out of 22 polls since Sep. 27 have shown Obama breaking 50% in Pennsylvania. Given the large number of different pollsters in the field, that indicates that methodology issues are moot: if the election were held today, Obama would win Pennsylvania. <B>In order to lose Pennsylvania, some voters who are currently supporting Obama would have to change their mind or stay home.</B><BR/><BR/>In Wisconsin, it's 15 out of 15 polls since Sep. 27 that show Obama breaking 50%, so the same argument applies. <BR/><BR/>The bottom line is that McCain can only win those two states if he changes the minds of voters who have already decided.<BR/><BR/>This is in contrast to, say, Ohio or Florida where we can't be sure which way the election would go if it were held today, because of a combination of undecideds and of the uncertainty added by effects of polling methodologies.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com