tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post568740565139418787..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-44879646963805142612008-09-23T08:55:00.000-04:002008-09-23T08:55:00.000-04:00That's right, Rob. There is some amount of cancel...That's right, Rob. There is some amount of canceling out of the margin of error going on with an average of all these polls. But as it is weighted, obviously there is some extra weighting on that most recent poll's margin of error. Still, if this is the limbo, 3 is as low as I'll go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50916594723288205972008-09-23T08:13:00.000-04:002008-09-23T08:13:00.000-04:00Josh,Since you are averaging several polls, doesn'...Josh,<BR/><BR/>Since you are averaging several polls, doesn't the margin of error decrease? Obviously, the averages from those states polled many times would be more reliable than averages from states polled only a few times.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-22887471654554444042008-09-22T23:51:00.000-04:002008-09-22T23:51:00.000-04:00Oh Scott, I'll have your map up tomorrow. If you ...Oh Scott, I'll have your map up tomorrow. If you have any additional analysis (outside what you added to the original comment), feel free to email me by clicking "contact" under my profile information.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50905706449022578892008-09-22T23:49:00.000-04:002008-09-22T23:49:00.000-04:00Unscientific? There's no room around here for tha...Unscientific? There's no room around here for that!<BR/><BR/>Eight seems like a logical line, though. I'll have to post some of the different outcomes this weekend after the switch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24253739367240510832008-09-22T21:20:00.000-04:002008-09-22T21:20:00.000-04:00I'm going to second what Robert, Scott and Josh ha...I'm going to second what Robert, Scott and Josh have said on the tossup/lean boundary. On the lean/strong, my completely unscientific suggestion is to set it at 8 now or after the debates and keep it there.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84834127552565121512008-09-22T19:59:00.000-04:002008-09-22T19:59:00.000-04:00A good set of comments here.Scott,I agree with you...A good set of comments here.<BR/><BR/>Scott,<BR/>I agree with you on scaling the category back too far. But I'm also resistant to constantly changing things. As you have pointed out, it is the continuity here that helps make this site distinctive. That said, two thoughtful and reasoned shifts down the stretch is probably not too radical a shift. <BR/><BR/>So Rob, I think you're on to something with this approach you've suggested. I think what I'll do is bump the mark down to four on Friday night and then again to three on Friday night October 17 at the close of the news week following the final debate. <BR/><BR/>On the lean/solid divide:<BR/>I'm going to have to think about this one some. The reality is that this race is going to shift away from these degrees of difference to a competitive/non-competitive differentiation. However, I'd like to keep that middle category just for the sake of enhancing our understanding of the natural order of states in the race. But I think that will require a bit of maintenance. I want to maintain the integrity of the lean category, but I don't want it to appear as if I'm moving the line just for the sake of keeping it in the mix. I may leave the line where it is and see what direction things move in before making a decision there. But I do like this double the value of the toss up/lean line idea. I'll crunch the numbers a few different ways ahead of Saturday's update and see what seems most appealing and/or makes the most sense. It doesn't look like the distinction makes sense when you get down to 19 electoral votes in one category, so I'll want to try and stay ahead of that as best I can. <BR/><BR/>S.D.,<BR/>The margins in these state polls range anywhere from around 3-5 points. That's why three is the lowest I will likely go when setting that particular line.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-35231073460607697412008-09-22T18:14:00.000-04:002008-09-22T18:14:00.000-04:00What's the margin of error on most of these polls?...What's the margin of error on most of these polls? That's what I'd set the threshold between "lean" and "toss-up" as. If it's between percentage points, I'd round up (i.e., if the typical margin of error is anywhere from 4.01% to 4.99%, I'd use 5% as the cutoff).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16645401695696484967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-61044026844604764652008-09-22T17:58:00.000-04:002008-09-22T17:58:00.000-04:00I'm a little hesitant to close it too far. When we...I'm a little hesitant to close it too far. When we say that states within 5 points are toss-ups we are partly acknowledging that there could be a 5 point swing between now and the election, and that probability gets smaller as time goes on. But we're also saying that the polls may be getting it systematically wrong, because, for example, of GOTV efforts.<BR/><BR/>Most of the ground game estimates I've seen, though, put the realistic limit of turnout efforts at about a 2% shift in the results. So Robert's suggestion of going to 4% after the first debate and 3% after the last debate seems good to me.<BR/><BR/>Will you also change the lean/solid line while you're at it? It seems even less likely that a 9% state is even remotely in play now. How about setting the lean/solid line at double the toss-up lean line?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-76728586519561896282008-09-22T14:14:00.000-04:002008-09-22T14:14:00.000-04:00I'll junp in. I would suggest that you lower it to...I'll junp in. I would suggest that you lower it to 4 points now and then to 3 points after the last debate. I suspect there will be some movement resulting from the debates.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com