tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post5138668424736568039..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: GEORGIAJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88657370183839955922015-12-11T12:41:52.261-05:002015-12-11T12:41:52.261-05:00The point of a quick-and-dirty is to see what happ...<br />The point of a quick-and-dirty is to see what happens that surprises you. I didn't expect Trump so high or everyone else still below 20% low when I changed the denominator from 100 to 74. <br /><br />1. Sure, those numbers will change, but no one knows how. I'm doing a quick model of the field winnowing, and the surviving candidates picking up proportional shares of those voters. It's possible that Trump takes less, but it's also possible that the frontrunners' bandwagon takes a larger share.<br /><br />2. I re-jiggered the numbers to reflect the field winnowing. <br /><br />3. Yes it's unlikely that a 48%-19%-18%-17% means that 48% takes first in exactly 14 CDs and 19% runs second in 14. But it's likely to balance out, with Mr 48% winning absolute majorities in about as many CDs as he runs second in. (And with a CRuz-Rubio-Carson field, you'd certainly have different runner-ups in different districts). Again, I don't think Trump takes 80% of the Georgia delegates with 48% of the vote, but it's hard to see how he doesn't take a 55-75% with 40% of the vote. <br /><br />4. Again, I don't think Trump takes 80% of the Georgia delegates with 48% of the vote, but using Georgia as a stand-in for the entire March 1 primary, it's hard to see how he doesn't take 55-75% with 40% of the vote. People are not panicking enough, judging by the punditry-at-large. There is an assumption that the laws of political gravity that carried Romney to victory over Santorum & Gingrich & Co will carry someone to victory over Trump. When the fact is that half of those "laws" are the advantages the GOP process gives to the frontrunner. John Bragghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02572341050529523488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-1338783932298451002015-12-10T18:18:17.454-05:002015-12-10T18:18:17.454-05:00Probably too quick and too dirty. :-)
A few thing...Probably too quick and too dirty. :-)<br /><br />A few things:<br />1) The field will winnow and those numbers will obviously change as that happens and as results from other states come in. <br /><br />2) There's really no need to rejigger the numbers. Trump getting to a majority statewide is probably farfetched, but him potentially being the only candidate over 20% (or whatever the threshold is) is conceivable. That means that he (or any competitive/viable candidate) is closer to backdoor winner-take-all than a true majority-based winner-take-all allocation of those at-large delegates. <br /><br />3) It is a stretch to assume that that margin yields a win for Trump in all 14 congressional districts. Gingrich actually won by a similar margin over Romney in 2012 and lost a handful of districts to the eventual nominee. <br /><br />4) State level rules are mostly all designed to give the winner of the contest something of a bonus. The extent of that bonus differs from state to state. But yeah, that is usually (though not always) the frontrunner. There is no reason yet to think that Trump will not or cannot take advantage of that. Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-22216182185543117872015-12-10T17:57:02.169-05:002015-12-10T17:57:02.169-05:00Huh. I just did a quick-and-dirty, with some assu...Huh. I just did a quick-and-dirty, with some assumptions.<br />Started with HuffPo national averages (Trump 38.5, Cruz 14.1, Rubio 12.3, Carson 1.9), eliminated everyone else. (Discard their voters, or assume they'll split by the same %s)<br /><br />That puts Trump at 48.3%, close to WTA territory.<br />Cruz is at 19%, Rubio at 16.6%, Carson at 11.9%. Nobody is at 20%, Trump runs the table for the 34 statewide delegates.<br /><br />With that sort of margin, 48%-19%, it's safe to say Trump runs first in all CDs, for 14 x 2 = 28 more delegates. Crudely, I'd assign 14 delegates to Cruz running second everywhere. That gives Trump 62, Cruz 14 delegates out of Georgia. <br /><br />People are refusing to consider that the advantages that the GOP system gives to the frontrunner are going to work in Trump's favor this time. Trump probably won't take 80% of the March 1 delegates with 48% of the vote, but he's likely to take a majority of them with close to 40% of the vote.<br /><br />John Bragghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02572341050529523488noreply@blogger.com