tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post4923384644057563061..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88911232959338623572008-09-30T09:14:00.000-04:002008-09-30T09:14:00.000-04:00Jack, I don't disagree with you, but I would add o...Jack, <BR/>I don't disagree with you, but I would add one thing. The Dean example is one from the primary phase. What were talking about in terms of Obama now is in the context of a general election campaign. I think that distinction is an important one. If the perception is that Obama is going to win, it could affect turnout and I would call that complacency.<BR/><BR/>Now, will that happen? I don't know, but the Obama folks are awfully confident in their GOTV efforts and ground game generally. And I definitely think the Dean example is very much in their minds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-74091303572180839492008-09-30T00:25:00.000-04:002008-09-30T00:25:00.000-04:00I saw that ad, and meant to post it too, but forgo...I saw that ad, and meant to post it too, but forgot while I was writing — Scott clearly has a better memory than I. But I don't think the worry is that complacency will lead to people not voting. The type of people that sometimes don't vote aren't generally very interested in politics and therefore probably don't know that Obama is well ahead.<BR/><BR/>Rather, the worry is that young people just don't always vote in the numbers they should. This is true no matter how close the election is.<BR/><BR/>One of my first political experiences was following the Dean campaign in 2004. I was 16 and too young to vote, and was only interested in his campaign because somebody told me about him and that he was good, a true liberal, etc. I really didn't do much more than get emails from him. But I bring it up because we all know what happened to Dean. Obama wants to make sure it doesn't happen to him.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-60421623719505919462008-09-28T21:20:00.000-04:002008-09-28T21:20:00.000-04:00Ah yes. If the race looks like a done deal, does ...Ah yes. If the race looks like a done deal, does complacency set in? Interesting.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the link, Scott.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-91548658514243027052008-09-28T20:59:00.000-04:002008-09-28T20:59:00.000-04:00The Obama campaign has chimed in with their McCain...The Obama campaign has <A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzuIHjQYW2c" REL="nofollow">chimed in</A> with their McCain victory scenario: low turnout.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77720090261394338742008-09-28T07:57:00.000-04:002008-09-28T07:57:00.000-04:00I think the world event scenario is the greatest p...I think the world event scenario is the greatest possibility for McCain at this point, but some gamechanger in the economy is also credible. It seems like it is getting a little late in the game for a successful swift-boating incident, but the Republicans are very good at this sort of thing.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-44886806617675622852008-09-28T00:03:00.000-04:002008-09-28T00:03:00.000-04:00Posted the last one before I saw Josh's comment. I...Posted the last one before I saw Josh's comment. I'm sure Obama's campaign has contingency plans for all possible Biden dontopedalogy.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-13438361975843063482008-09-28T00:01:00.000-04:002008-09-28T00:01:00.000-04:00I don't think Russia invading Georgia is enough to...I don't think Russia invading Georgia is enough to ensure a McCain victory, simply because most Americans think Georgia is that state north of Florida, and even if they did know where the country is, wouldn't care. I know that it would focus the debate on McCain's advantageous territory of foreign policy, but probably not enough to override a significant Obama advantage.<BR/><BR/>And I don't really see a situation where the economy winds up helping McCain. Obama has too much of a natural advantage there.<BR/><BR/>Possibility two is more likely, but it probably won't be enough unless combined with an Obama gaffe or at least a series of poor performances. If Obama runs a good campaign, McCain would have to be amazing to win. Even if McCain finds his voice, Obama already has his.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps a combination of these things happening (most likely 1 and 2) would be enough, though. <BR/><BR/>Other, very unlikely, possibilities are that we're totally wrong about the irrelevance of the Bradley Effect, or we see weaker youth voter turnout than expected, but I don't see either one of those being the case.<BR/><BR/>Or maybe I'm wrong, and Obama <I>is</I> a secret Muslim, and this will come out before November. In that case, Obama loses 535-3 in the electoral college in a defeat that makes 1984 look like a good year for Democrats.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-40615704301004254762008-09-27T23:58:00.000-04:002008-09-27T23:58:00.000-04:00I think this is an interesting question, Scott. I...I think this is an interesting question, Scott. It is one thing to say, well, this is a presidential election, they're usually pretty close, right. But it is quite another to sit down and try to come up with a scenario where McCain wins. <BR/><BR/>What you list makes sense. You have two external events. One plays to McCain and the Republicans' strengths and the other assumes a quicker campaign response. The latter I think you rely heavily on timing. If it was late enough in the process, that may make a difference.<BR/><BR/>The middle example is intriguing to me. McCain loosens up and catches lightning in a bottle again. He would have to wipe the floor with Obama in one of the final debates to trigger that I'd think. My initial thought was the town hall debate, but the expectations will be high for him in that one simply because that is perceived to be his bread and butter. But if he somehow managed to beat Obama in that domestic policy debate, that may trigger something similar to what you've described. That triggers a change, but the remaining part of this leans on campaign effects and I'm not convinced the McCain campaign is disciplined enough to pull that one off. They have just been way too inconsistent. <BR/><BR/>But back to your question: What about other scenarios? Let's dispense with the obvious October surprise. Something comes out on Obama that totally undermines his campaign. I have no idea what that is and I think it would have to be really bad to shift opinions enough to make a difference. <BR/><BR/>Biden sticks his foot in his mouth in a major way; to the point that his place on the ticket really comes into question. Obama, then, faced with that decision, drags his feet and takes too long to act one way or the other. That undermines Obama's decision-making and takes him down in the process.<BR/><BR/>But these are both very narrow in scope and fairly far-fetched. They also assume that something outside of McCain's power intervenes to help him. But what can McCain's campaign do to actively change things for the better? I'm going to have to think about that one for a bit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-22041107716165080282008-09-27T22:52:00.000-04:002008-09-27T22:52:00.000-04:00I think we're not in electoral college math territ...I think we're not in electoral college math territory at this point. While the FHQ methodology stresses stability, the momentum for Obama is pointing toward blowout territory. Well, as Josh said, blowout compared to the last two cycles anyway.<BR/><BR/>In the silly football analogy that's been serving us pretty well so far, it's probably about 33-24, early in the fourth quarter, with Obama's team having the ball deep in McCain territory, and Obama having a good rushing game. It's not to the point yet where McCain needs a miracle, but stopping the bleeding or throwing another long bomb isn't enough--he needs to find a way to stop Obama's "three yards and a cloud of dust" methodical offense. (End of silly football analogy)<BR/><BR/>So let me put on my thinking cap and ask--at this point, what would a McCain win look like?<BR/><BR/>Possibility one: Geopolitics. Obama's carved into McCain's edge on foreign affairs, but hasn't destroyed it. If there's some geopolitical event that plays to McCain's storyline--say, Russia invades the Ukraine--then I think McCain wins.<BR/><BR/>Possibility two: Back from the dead. McCain channels Hillary Clinton and his own previous campaigns. He relaxes a little because it looks like he's going to lose, and finds his voice. Pennsylvania slides gradually to McCain. Under this scenario, the map could end up looking very strange, almost like Obama-Hillary as far as the battleground states go. In fact, this is the scenario that for a time during the primary campaign the Clinton campaign was trying to lay out.<BR/><BR/>Possibility three: Economic armageddon. If the Wall Street crisis becomes catastrophic, it's hard to predict what will happen. McCain might react a little faster to truly awful developments than Obama. Even if the reactions didn't make any sense, at some point the notion of "doing something" might gain some traction.<BR/><BR/>That's all I can come up with. Any of you have other McCain scenarios?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67778453639006984932008-09-27T21:24:00.000-04:002008-09-27T21:24:00.000-04:00Is there a place where I can report abuse on this ...Is there a place where I can report abuse on this site? It's as if <I>I don't understand</I> what a string of polls is.<BR/><BR/>Seriously though, losing the Florida firewall would be disastrous for McCain. There are four big states. Obama has Pennsylvania and Michigan and McCain has Florida and Ohio. If someone is able to pick up a third, then that person is going to be the winner. Yeah, there are other permutations, but with the electoral vote totals in those states, that's where the action is. <BR/><BR/>Having said that, if I'm the Obama campaign, I'd like to see a consistent two or three point lead in Florida before I thought this was anything more than just the narrowing effect at work. I'd like to make a parallel between the recent Florida polling and Pennsylvania polling but I think New Hampshire is the best possible corollary on Obama's side.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-46489069907772470552008-09-27T20:46:00.000-04:002008-09-27T20:46:00.000-04:00McCain should be far more concerned about the cons...McCain should be far more concerned about the consistently close polling in FL and Obama's <I>string</I> of good polls in VA than excited about one isolated +3 in Colorado.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com