tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post4881148292787312444..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36046698024604783952008-10-25T13:24:00.000-04:002008-10-25T13:24:00.000-04:00Good, Scott. I'm glad you brought this up....and ...Good, Scott. I'm glad you brought this up.<BR/><BR/>...and beat me to it in the process. This point actually came up in our weekly discussion group yesterday and I was going to post something about it today. <BR/><BR/>But now I'll just move this over to its own post. It deserves it's own spot. <BR/><BR/>Jack, I'll move your comment over there as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-34504766373984535212008-10-25T11:56:00.000-04:002008-10-25T11:56:00.000-04:00Scott,Save yourself the trouble of trying to under...Scott,<BR/><BR/>Save yourself the trouble of trying to understand the McCain campaign.<BR/><BR/>I would like to think that the vast majority of early voters are people who are 100% certain they support their candidate. While it's obviously an advantage to have them in the bag, it can't possibly be such an advantage that it's worth giving up a state that's polling relatively close in favor of a state in which you're 15 points down.<BR/><BR/>Also, the Iowa thing, as well as so much more, supports Hypothesis Two.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-8164152807874199442008-10-25T11:28:00.000-04:002008-10-25T11:28:00.000-04:00Sorry for double-posting, but I just came up with ...Sorry for double-posting, but I just came up with what I think may be the explanation for a lot of what seems to be irrational behavior by the McCain campaign in their choice of states to allocate resources to.<BR/><BR/>Think, for a moment, what is the most likely victory scenario for McCain in terms of electoral votes. Just move up the Electoral College Spectrum until you get to 270?<BR/><BR/>No. The problem is that some of those states have already voted in large numbers. For McCain to win, he has to have the state of the race change nationally. But if that change occurs late (say, something equivalent to the Bin Laden tape of 2004 the weekend before the election), then its effect is tempered in early voting states.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Early_voting_US_states.svg" REL="nofollow">Here's the map</A> of states with early voting.<BR/> <BR/>McCain's best chance of winning is to get some of the states on Obama's side of the partisan line that don't have early voting.<BR/><BR/>Those are:<BR/><BR/>MN, WI, VA, MI, DE, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, and NH.<BR/><BR/>Start by throwing out the deepest of the blue states. Now we've got, in reverse order of their position on the spectrum,<BR/><BR/>VA, NH, MI, PA, WI, and MN. <BR/><BR/>Looks an awful lot like where McCain is concentrating his resources, doesn't it?<BR/><BR/>The one exception there is Michigan. And if they're actually thinking things through (which I admit doesn't seem to be the case), then in the event of one more game-changer they can sweep into Michigan and try to launch a surprise attack of sorts. McCain has enough resources to do that in one largish state, and in the mean time he can save money and resources by leaving it off the list.<BR/><BR/>The other mystery is why he seems so fixated on Iowa. That I can't understand.<BR/><BR/>But at least this explains why the interest in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and even Ohio seems a little tepid. McCain needs to defend his states up through Florida, early voting or no (and thus we do see plenty of activity in North Carolina and Florida). That brings him to 227. Assume a major game-changer in the last week. He now adds the non-early-voting states of Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He's at 265. McCain now wins if he can somehow pick off Nevada or Ohio (early voting, but pretty close), or Michigan (no early voting, but would need a last minute blitz). <BR/><BR/>It's a long shot, but that's the point. To win, McCain has to assume something crazy goes his way, and then be ready to capitalize on it if it does. Going after Pennsylvania, rather than the western states, is the best way to do that.<BR/><BR/>So the football analogy is no longer the hail Mary pass. Now it's down by 16 with under a minute to go and no time outs. If you can score a touchdown, the plan is clearly to go for a two point conversion. Not because that's the high percentage play--in fact, it's likely to make the defeat worse in point terms. But because if lightning strikes (in the analogy, recovering an onside kick), then at least you're poised to take advantage of it.<BR/><BR/>That's hypothesis one. Hypothesis two is that they're just clueless.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-4319896589056950882008-10-25T11:00:00.000-04:002008-10-25T11:00:00.000-04:00I like how once McCain said he was pulling out of ...I like how once McCain said he was pulling out of Michigan, pollsters basically stopped polling it. Not a single "discretionary" poll since Oct. 12. (I'm not counting the Big Ten poll, since they "have" to poll Michigan, or polls by in-state groups.)<BR/><BR/>Wisconsin and Iowa, just to name two examples, continue to be polled. <BR/><BR/>That throws a weird wrench into the methodology here. As long as a state is polled at a constant rate, whether high or low, it should eventually respond to changes. But once Michigan changed, it stopped being polled much. So the old, close race is "locked in" without new polls coming in to change the average.<BR/><BR/>In other words, Michigan is not being polled much because it is believed to be solid Obama. But we can't confirm that it's solid Obama because it's not being polled much. <I>Sigh.</I>Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-80679908041081645682008-10-24T22:47:00.000-04:002008-10-24T22:47:00.000-04:00Here's that Cost link from Rob.<A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/a_note_on_the_polls_1.html" REL="nofollow">Here's that Cost link from Rob</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-32725074853443501432008-10-24T21:34:00.000-04:002008-10-24T21:34:00.000-04:00dneedle,Check out Jay Cost's post this evening.htt...dneedle,<BR/><BR/>Check out Jay Cost's post this evening.<BR/><BR/>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/a_note_on_the_polls_1.htmlRoberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-66853779573069466592008-10-24T14:59:00.000-04:002008-10-24T14:59:00.000-04:00Josh:The only striking number I caught clicking on...Josh:<BR/><BR/>The only striking number I caught clicking on the link of the Strategic Vision poll was that in that sample Obama had only a net 8 point favorable rating. Still, that isn't really THAT striking. You would know far more than I would, but Strategic Vision seems like a serious outlook. The poll is an outlier, but I don't think you can just dismiss it, like you could that 1 point McCain national deficit showing a huge evangelical percentage, from yesterday.Daniel Nhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16867425192408917567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55448397055916681762008-10-24T13:56:00.000-04:002008-10-24T13:56:00.000-04:00Jack,The 100-0, single-shot poll scenario you desc...Jack,<BR/>The 100-0, single-shot poll scenario you described wouldn't even get Pennsylvania out of the Obama lean category for McCain. With as many polls as Pennsylvania has, it is going to be really difficult to sway by FHQ's measure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-12821672978007776862008-10-24T13:47:00.000-04:002008-10-24T13:47:00.000-04:00Dneedle,Good catch. It has been fixed. I just gl...Dneedle,<BR/>Good catch. It has been fixed. I just glanced at that poll as I was finishing up (and getting ready to head out the door to catch the bus) and apparently didn't look closely enough.<BR/><BR/>If anything, this lends some credence to what I referenced FiveThirtyEight as saying yesterday. Strategic Vision is a Republican-leaning firm after all. But they have been in line with most of the other polling recently.<BR/><BR/>...until this flurry of double digit Obama leads.<BR/><BR/>We now have a divide in Ohio between the Rasmussens, Mason-Dixons and Strategic Visions on the one hand and the Quinnipiacs, BigTens, etc. on the other. And that's just in the last week. Interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24499453927394420382008-10-24T13:36:00.000-04:002008-10-24T13:36:00.000-04:00Just for fun, now that Pennsylvania is a lovely da...Just for fun, now that Pennsylvania is a lovely dark blue, and it seems to be the big targeted state for the clueless McCain campaign, what would it take for it to shift into his column? Two polls showing him up 100-0?<BR/><BR/>Maybe he's relying on <A HREF="http://aurora.wells.edu/~srs/Math151-Fall02/Litdigest.htm" REL="nofollow">Literary Digest polls</A>?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-11800375921155091332008-10-24T12:50:00.000-04:002008-10-24T12:50:00.000-04:00No, Josh, the GOP (Strategic Vision) poll in Ohio ...No, Josh, the GOP (Strategic Vision) poll in Ohio today shows MCCAIN with a 3 point lead in Ohio!!!Daniel Nhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16867425192408917567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-1907830251700701532008-10-24T00:27:00.000-04:002008-10-24T00:27:00.000-04:00Wow.On October 24, at one minute after midnight, l...Wow.<BR/><BR/>On October 24, at one minute after midnight, let it be noted that academia, where Josh and I both make our livings, was just referred to as "real life."<BR/><BR/>The apocalypse is nigh. :DUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-12454094290959870382008-10-24T00:01:00.000-04:002008-10-24T00:01:00.000-04:00Fair enough. Real life has to take priority. We (a...Fair enough. Real life has to take priority. We (and I believe I can speak for all the other regular readers in this) appreciate what you do for this site.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com