tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post4705231027256809824..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (6/18/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-54987035232270126582008-06-19T09:06:00.000-04:002008-06-19T09:06:00.000-04:00It is difficult to make the "no Obama bounce" clai...It is difficult to make the "no Obama bounce" claim. He's up 4 points nationally on average and about the same on the state level. Are there states where the polling has indicated that there may not have been a bounce? Yeah, but you really have to stretch to make that claim. Oregon and Minnesota seem to be the only ones that fit that category. And even then, it is a tough sell.<BR/><BR/>Oregon's last poll gave Obama an 8 point edge and that's right around our average for the Beaver state. And as I said in the post, the two Minnesota polls cancel each other out, keeping the average virtually unchanged. <BR/><BR/>McCain is going to have to hope for a major incident if this keeps up. There's a long way to go, so he may get it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-65977960493746026042008-06-19T08:50:00.000-04:002008-06-19T08:50:00.000-04:00I've read comments elsewhere that there was no pos...I've read comments elsewhere that there was no post-Clinton bounce for Obama, but I think your analysis is more accurate. It seems that there is a slow flow in most of the polls, national and various states to Obama. I expect that flow to continue over the summer barring a major incident.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com