tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3173470205204934917..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: More on the Georgia Senate RunoffJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68373528445937504302008-11-13T17:44:00.000-05:002008-11-13T17:44:00.000-05:00Hey Hexagonal.Thanks for stopping by and thanks fo...Hey Hexagonal.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for stopping by and thanks for the kind words.<BR/><BR/>I think you're absolutely right on the points you've made. Those counties aren't where the votes are for the most part. Henry County to the southeast of Atlanta is the exception. This election isn't like the electoral college and we certainly aren't dealing with the county unit system that dominated Georgia in the time prior to <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_v._Carr" REL="nofollow">Baker v. Carr</A> and <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesberry_v._Sanders" REL="nofollow">Westberry v. Sanders</A>. And as I said, turnout is the key to the runoff. That's where those wildcards come into play. <BR/><BR/>This post and its predecessor were jumping off points more or less. I'll hopefully have time to augment them some between now and December 2. I'll look into your exit polling question. I don't know right off hand.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-80236737339065781302008-11-13T14:46:00.000-05:002008-11-13T14:46:00.000-05:00Hi - I just stumbled into your blog; very useful, ...Hi - I just stumbled into your blog; very useful, cogent analysis. Thanks. Hopefully the work of maintaining a blog will strengthen your dissertation and your career.<BR/><BR/>Two comments: <BR/><BR/>[1] your earlier post on the Chamblis/Martin runoff does useful county-levle analysis, but doesn't discuss just how depopulate some Ga. counties are: Atlanta ex-urb counties have more than 100x more voters than some of the rural SE counties - what happens there won't matter.<BR/><BR/>[2] In this post, you don't discuss cross-over votes: the ticket-splitting voters who vote R for Pres and D for Senate and vice-versa. Yes, as a practical matter there probably aren't that many of them. But in a close runoff the behavior of ticket-splitters could be determinative, esp. if there are asymmetries in how they break (so that they don't just cancel each other out).<BR/><BR/>Did Ga. exit polls reveal a significant # of ticket-splitters?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-54676064995628087782008-11-10T20:18:00.000-05:002008-11-10T20:18:00.000-05:00I'm on a roll today. I'm going to chalk this post...I'm on a roll today. I'm going to chalk this post up to post-election withdrawals.<BR/><BR/>...in lieu of deleting it altogether.<BR/><BR/>FHQ's diligent contributors always have my back though.<BR/><BR/>Thanks y'all.<BR/><BR/>Tomorrow will be better. To mark the one week anniversary of the 2008 election, I'll finally have a wrap-up post up; complete with map and electoral college spectrum. And I have another interesting post that I think we can all have some fun with. I've got a few things I need to check on that one though, so I don't repeat this post's delightful miscues.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-18924995348526706952008-11-10T19:46:00.000-05:002008-11-10T19:46:00.000-05:00Josh,Your fix, unfortunately, added another error....Josh,<BR/><BR/>Your fix, unfortunately, added another error. You now refer to Martin as "the former state senator." Martin was a member of the state House, not the Senate.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89035447086512338362008-11-10T16:40:00.000-05:002008-11-10T16:40:00.000-05:00The simple answer is yes, it would, Scott. I was ...The simple answer is yes, it would, Scott. I was playing around with several scenarios and mangled them in the post.<BR/><BR/><B>An administrative note</B>: I couldn't strike that material properly without completely destroying the readability of that sentence. It has been corrected but the quotation Scott included in his comment was in the original post.<BR/><BR/>Thanks Scott.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84562333426007747622008-11-10T16:30:00.000-05:002008-11-10T16:30:00.000-05:00Good catch Scott. That Chambliss bit wasn't suppo...Good catch Scott. That Chambliss bit wasn't supposed to be in there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83292409789939880242008-11-10T16:21:00.000-05:002008-11-10T16:21:00.000-05:00I don't understand this:'There were about 182,000 ...I don't understand this:<BR/><BR/>'<I>There were about 182,000 fewer Chambliss voters than McCain voters and 86,000 fewer Martin voters than Obama supporters. If both Chambliss and Martin were able to mobilize all their parties' presidential candidate voters behind them, Martin would gain almost 100,000 votes on Chambliss, bringing the margin between the two candidates down to less than 15,000 votes.</I>"<BR/><BR/>If they both mobilize all their parties' presidential votes, doesn't that mean the spread would <I>widen</I> by 100,000 votes, making it a Chambliss blow-out?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com