tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3029181138909456241..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Primary Results from the Sunshine StateJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-12792750984286409272008-01-30T15:15:00.000-05:002008-01-30T15:15:00.000-05:00Rich,I can buy the bucking history angle generally...Rich,<BR/>I can buy the bucking history angle generally, but Giuliani's campaign has been trending downward for a while now. Everything played the right way for that strategy to work, but Giuliani's slide had more of say in the matter. He didn't (or couldn't) hold up his end of the bargain.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-87843130675052354512008-01-30T12:12:00.000-05:002008-01-30T12:12:00.000-05:00Thanks, Rich, I learned form you about Edwards. Bo...Thanks, Rich, I learned form you about Edwards. Boy am I out of date! I agree that Rudy could have made something out of Florida. The problem was with the candidate and the campaign and not the overall strategy. Also, think what the race would be like if Huckabee had won in SC.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-39191823997439895092008-01-30T10:36:00.000-05:002008-01-30T10:36:00.000-05:00On Giuliani's strategy ... while he was bucking ag...On Giuliani's strategy ... while he was bucking against history, this whole primary season has little historical precedence. Never have we seen the caucuses and primaries so early and so condenced. If someone was going to try the ahistorical approach, skipping the early voters, this was the year for it. <BR/><BR/>That being said, the Giuliani campaign simply did a miserable job of it. I agree with Rob that he lost his voice and his message. And the last moment attempt to be the alternative to bickering Romney and McCain appeared just as it was, pathetic. <BR/><BR/>Now with Edwards leaving the race, where does his support go? In tight races, it can mean the difference between victory and defeat.Rich Clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06225344522521994022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-71581679668116346512008-01-30T08:05:00.000-05:002008-01-30T08:05:00.000-05:00That's a great point, Rob. Labor was really activ...That's a great point, Rob. Labor was really activated to get out to the polls on that initiative. I guess I read too much from Howard Wolfson yesterday. Ah, the Clinton spin. It got me. <BR/><BR/>I was interested in how the media was going to play the Florida contest on the Democratic side and I remain curious as to how the results will be played between now and next Tuesday.<BR/><BR/>My suggestion is that we all start counting delegates because that'll be what the four remaining (viable) campaigns will be doing next Tuesday night.drhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01110427594222134441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68401538532089197272008-01-30T07:55:00.000-05:002008-01-30T07:55:00.000-05:00Two things did in Rudy. First the Biden statement ...Two things did in Rudy. First the Biden statement about him being nothing but 911. He never found his voice after that. Also, he seemed to lose interest in the race after his mysterious illness in Nebraska. When the campaign is chronicled we will hear more about that illness.<BR/><BR/>Obama came within about 17%, not the 15% that he needed to meet Josh's standard, but close enough to blunt claims by the Clinton campaign. Of the Democrats who decided in the last week the break was 35% Obama, 35% Clinton and 25% Edwards. It will be interesting to see if the Clinton win in Florida or the movement toward a tie in support in recent days will be the more significant effect going in to Tsunami Tuesday.<BR/><BR/>One last note, the idea that Florida Democrats flocked to the polls when nothing was at stake is a misstatement. There were two very critical ballot initiatives -- one on proerty taxes and one on hurricane relief. I received an email urging me to vote Yes on Initiative 1. There was plenty of incentive for Florida Democrats to vote in addition to the Presidential contest.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-25327655807530372702008-01-29T21:15:00.000-05:002008-01-29T21:15:00.000-05:00And a good question it is. History (at least rece...And a good question it is. History (at least recent history) tells us that skipping early events isn't a winning strategy. Gore's 1988 strategy came the closest to working. Ir could be argued that that was more a function of the Southern Super Tuesday that year <BR/><BR/>When does skipping work? When everyone cedes victory to one candidate. See Harkin in Iowa in 1992. McCain made it interesting as the alternative to Bush in 2000 after skipping Iowa. Skipping Iowa is one thing, but skipping the first six contests is quite another.<BR/><BR/>What hurt Giuliani most was the string of fifth and sixth place finishes in the early states. I know he didn't compete but still, you'd have to hope that name recognition gets you a little higher. <BR/><BR/>His New Hampshire strategy was curious. He was somewhat competitive in the polls there in the fall, but his effort to infuse his campaign there with some cash was too little too late. <BR/><BR/>Thanks for stopping by Dave.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-27262898233625882202008-01-29T20:32:00.000-05:002008-01-29T20:32:00.000-05:00So the question I have is who is the genius advisi...So the question I have is who is the genius advising Giuliani? If you are going to stake your entire campaign on a single state, you should be sure that you are going to win it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com