tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post2552889179798542010..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Who You Callin' Underpolled?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55592376294618421842008-09-29T11:23:00.000-04:002008-09-29T11:23:00.000-04:00Jack,It does. I was already planning a follow up ...Jack,<BR/>It does. I was already planning a follow up to this post this week. Those Zogby polls will be dropped from consideration there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84428158562101462652008-09-28T21:27:00.000-04:002008-09-28T21:27:00.000-04:00One last question on this post: do these totals in...One last question on this post: do these totals include Zogby polls?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33843044584982777032008-09-26T23:35:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:35:00.000-04:00EVs are in the "full" model, Scott, but not in the...EVs are in the "full" model, Scott, but not in the graph. Once I get the data set back to where it was I'll post a follow up. I can put two graphs on top of the other, so I'll plot the predicted line for the model with EVs and put it over top of this one to show the difference.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-7021455407684329482008-09-26T23:30:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:30:00.000-04:00Agreed on Indiana. It still should be surveyed mo...Agreed on Indiana. It still should be surveyed more though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67642333625798476122008-09-26T23:29:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:29:00.000-04:00There is another important variable here: the numb...There is another important variable here: the number of electoral votes a state has. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are heavily polled by the national firms because they're close <I>and</I> they're big prizes. Further to the right, California and New York are also above the line. Nevada still has no excuse on that score being polled less than New Mexico or New hampshire, though.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49506330306637085142008-09-26T23:28:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:28:00.000-04:00Right. Talk about overpolled.I think Utah may act...Right. Talk about overpolled.<BR/><BR/>I think Utah may actually be in the same boat. I left the office in a hurry to catch a ride home this afternoon and didn't save the data (wonderful!), or I'd double check that for you. I'll need to look into constraining the predictions at zero if I can.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-60611588901611450802008-09-26T23:25:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:25:00.000-04:00Also, Indiana's excuse is probably its history and...Also, Indiana's excuse is probably its history and the fact that it's favored McCain for most of the election cycle.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-14421970145759707622008-09-26T23:23:00.000-04:002008-09-26T23:23:00.000-04:00According to that regression line, Hawaii should h...According to that regression line, Hawaii should have a negative number of polls?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com