Thursday, October 27, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/27/16)



New State Polls (10/27/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
10/14-10/23
+/-4.3%
1012 likely voters
54
28
5
+26
+22.41
Florida
10/20-10/25
+/-3.39%
786 likely voters
43
39
9
+4
--
Florida
10/25-10/26
+/-3.71%
698 likely voters
42
46
6
+4
+2.17
Georgia
10/20-10/26
+/-3.7%
707 likely voters
43
44
5
+1
+2.72
Iowa
10/20-10/26
+/-3.5%
791 likely voters
44
44
6
+/-0
+0.971
Massachusetts
10/24-10/26
+/-4.4%
500 likely voters
57
25
12
+32
+23.21
Michigan
10/22-10/24
+/-4.0%
600 adults
41
34
13
+7
--
Michigan
10/20-10/24
+/-2.78%
1030 likely voters
48
42
5
+6
+6.87
New Hampshire
10/17-10/21
+/-4.5%
772 likely voters
43
38
4
+5
+6.12
North Carolina
10/20-10/26
+/-3.7%
702 likely voters
47
43
4
+4
+1.67
Pennsylvania
10/23-10/25
+/-3.4%
824 likely voters
46
39
6
+7
+5.48
Texas
10/14-10/23
+/-3.16%
959 likely voters
42
45
0
+3
+6.47
Virginia
10/20-10/26
+/-3.6%
749 likely voters
50
38
5
+12
+6.86
Washington
10/6-10/13
--
750 likely voters
53
39
22
+14
+12.59
1The Quinnipiac survey reduces the FHQ average for Iowa to below one point, moving the Hawkeye state onto the Watch List.


Polling Quick Hits:
12 more days.

Thursday brought 14 new surveys from twelve states.


California:
Clinton lagging about six points behind Obama 2012 in California would perhaps mean a great deal more if she was not still ahead of Trump by more than thirty points. The Golden state is still blue.


Florida:
In the Sunshine state, the Dixie Strategies poll looks something like the Selzer survey from a day ago: inconsistent with the bulk of recent polling in Florida, but the individual candidate levels of support are not out of the ordinary. Chalk it up to polling variation. Meanwhile, the UNF survey is more in line with the polling since the first debate in Florida.


Georgia:
Clinton has inched up to within range of where Obama was in Georgia four years ago. But her movement is within a much tighter range. Trump, on the other hand, is operating in a wider, more variable window in the Peach state as evidence by his share of support in the new Quinnipiac survey. The combination of the two has closed the gap some in Georgia, keeping the state on the Trump side of the partisan line.


Iowa:
Of the three closest states at FHQ -- Arizona, Iowa and Ohio -- only Ohio has been polled with any level of frequency all year much less over the course of the last month since the first debate. Iowa has only seen a handful of polls in that period. Those surveys have mostly leaned in Trump's direction, but when there is any variation in that, it tends to end in a tie rather than favoring Clinton. That is the case with this new Quinnipiac poll. But that tie is an improvement over the seven point deficit Clinton was facing a month ago in the same poll in the Hawkeye state. The thing is, Trump 44 percent is typical. Clinton's share is well above the 40 percent mark she has tended to hover under for much of 2016.


Massachusetts:
There are many parallels in the presidential race between California and Massachusetts. Both share a similar space on the Electoral College Spectrum below and the Bay state matches almost perfectly the description of California above. Clinton is behind where the typical Democratic candidate has ended up there, but when Trump is running about ten points behind Romney, that is of less significance.


Michigan:
Two new surveys in Michigan. There is some variation in terms of the shares of support the two candidates garner, but the margins are right in line with where FHQ has the race in the Great Lakes state in the averages. There is no evidence of any cracks in the lead Clinton has there.


New Hampshire:
A day after Monmouth appeared to show the race tightening in the Granite state, things are back to what has passed for normal there in the new UMass survey. Polls fluctuate. One can choose to ride the roller coaster or can simply follow the averages. The latter route has New Hampshire a little more than Clinton +6. The race in New Hampshire has been around there since the summer.


North Carolina:
That Remington poll from earlier in the week looks more and more like an outlier.  The simple fact of the matter is that North Carolina has consistently been in the narrow, but consistent Clinton lead area since the first debate..


Pennsylvania:
Like North Carolina, the talking points here on Pennsylvania polling has been a bit of a broken record. There have been some breaks in the lean area leads in the Keystone state, but they have been exception rather than rule. Even rarer are polls in Pennsylvania with Trump ahead. Other than the early waves of the online UPI panels, Trump has trailed there all year.


Texas:
The evidence continues to accumulate that the margin between Clinton and Trump in the Lone Star state has narrowed. Those lean area margins have shrunk to a consistent two to four point Trump lead in the last few weeks. By extension, that has slowly narrowed the average margin here to a point where it is approaching the lean/toss up line. This is one that might narrow but is unlikely to jump the partisan line given the trajectory of current polling in Texas.


Virginia:
See Pennsylvania. Virginia may not favor Clinton by 12 points like this Quinnipiac survey has found, but it has consistently had her in the lead. It is difficult to make states like Virginia and Pennsylvania -- states Republicans would normally target to most easily get to 270 -- interesting when they so clearly advantage Clinton.


Washington:
Washington is a state where Clinton has underperformed Obama 2012 all year, but has maintained a lead just over the strong/lean line on Clinton's side of the Spectrum throughout. And that is right around where the Evergreen state ended up then.


--
Changes (10/27/16)
Nothing changed on the map from a day ago. However, Iowa entered the Watch List, and there were a few small shifts on the Spectrum. Massachusetts and California switched spots, Washington pushed a slot deeper into the Strong Clinton area and Virginia nudged past Maine, settling next to Michigan.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
VA-13
(227)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
ME-23
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
OK-7
(14)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
ID-4
(7)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/26/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)

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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/26/16)



New State Polls (10/26/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/21-10/24
+/-3.2%
953 likely voters
43
45
6
+2
+2.26
Louisiana
10/19-10/21
+/-4.4%
500 likely voters
35
50
8
+15
+13.65
Montana
10/3-10/10
+/-4.0%
590 adults
27
43
20
+16
+14.21
Nevada
10/20-10/24
+/-3.7%
707 likely voters
43
43
2
+/-0
+1.20
New Hampshire
10/20-10/24
+/-3.5%
768 likely voters
45
36
3
+9
--
New Hampshire
10/22-10/25
+/-4.9%
401 likely voters
46
42
4
+4
+6.16
Utah
10/23-10/24
+/-4.0%
750 likely voters
28
32
4
+4
+9.481
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.01 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 29% support in the Rasmussen survey.


Polling Quick Hits:
13 days to go.

If yesterday was a day of mostly blue state polls, then today mixes in a bit of red with a couple of battleground surveys.


Florida:
Selzer's survey of the Sunshine state may be a harbinger of things to come, but it is by itself among recent polling in showing a Trump lead. That is not to say that this poll is off. It could be the start of a trajectory change, but that is not evident yet. Truth be told, Trump's 45 percent is at about the apex of his recent polling support in Florida polls while Clinton's 43 percent share is around her lowest.


Louisiana:
Trump has dipped into the mid-40s a handful of times in the Pelican state, but has mostly been somewhere in the 50 percent area. That will be enough to win Louisiana, particularly when he is ahead for Clinton by nearly 14 points.


Montana:
Like South Dakota a day ago, it is nice to have some data from underpolled Montana. But unlike South Dakota, this poll from Montana State-Billings conducted in the same window as the Trump tape and the town hall debate finds a wider Trump advantage. And that is true despite the fact that Trump is in the low 40s.


Nevada:
Nevada is competitive, but has consistently produced polls with Clinton tied with Trump or ahead in the toss up range. This Marist survey fits right in that area. It narrows the FHQ margin a touch, but keeps the Silver state on the Clinton side of the partisan line but still off the Watch List.


New Hampshire:
Much was made earlier in the day about the Monmouth New Hampshire poll on top of the Trump lead in Florida. However, that Clinton +4 is on the low end of the range in the Granite state while the Marist survey is on what has been the higher end of the range established since debate season started. Split the difference between the two and one ends up pretty close to where FHQ has the race in New Hampshire now: a little more than six points in Clinton's direction.


Utah:
Utah is closer than the FHQ average indicates. It is no surprise given how consistent the results have been across most polls there over the last week. Trump has fairly consistently lead even with McMullin nearly evenly splitting the typical Republican share of support in the Beehive state. And while that Trump lead is real, it is also real tenuous in a ruby red state with just less than two weeks left until election day.


--
Changes (10/26/16)
Nothing changed on the map, Spectrum or Watch List from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.