Showing posts with label live blog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label live blog. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

This Used to be Super Tuesday: Results from Texas, Ohio and the Northeast

And we're off. Could the Democratic race enter the end game Barbara Norrander (2000) discussed in her JOP article? Today's primaries could prove decisive for the Democrats and should put McCain over the top for the GOP nod.

10:34pm: This is going to go on for a while. I'm off for now, but will be back in the morning with a wrap up. In the meantime, keep up to date online with the live blog over at The Caucus.

10:30pm: Things are tight in Texas. Ohio is giving Clinton a slight edge with many of the state's urban areas yet to report. And President Bush is set to meet with John McCain tomorrow and endorse him. McCain may want to avoid too many photos with the president. Of course, those may not matter in November if Clinton and Obama continue to tear each other apart.

9:55pm: As we approach the 10 o'clock hour, we can begin to reflect a bit on the night so far. McCain has wrapped things up on the Republican side. Exit polling out of Ohio (according to The Fix) is showing a very tight race there. As you begin to look at the Election Guide maps (Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont) on The New York Times site, you see a lot more purple (Clinton) than green (Obama). Of course, land doesn't vote, people do.
...unless those people are being "actively disenfranchised."

9:24pm: Huckabee concedes the GOP nomination to McCain. The last of McCain's challengers are out of the race now and he can officially shift gears toward the general election and toward unifying the Republican party behind him. Oh, I suppose he could continue to browbeat the Democrats too while he's at it.

9:23pm: The streak is over. Clinton has won in Rhode Island.

9:17pm: A conference call by the Clinton campaign to highlight the problems in Texas was overrun by an Obama lawyer who claimed they were only complaining because Clinton was losing. You can't make this stuff up. This is why I'm a political scientist. This night has shown one thing (Well, two if you count John McCain officially wrapping up the nomination.): if the Democratic race stretches beyond tonight/tomorrow, it will get ugly and potentially threaten the party's chances in November. That is on the table now.

9:06pm: McCain has been projected the winner in Texas by CNN. Oh, and they also mention that he's sealed the deal on the GOP nomination too.

9:01pm: The complaints have spread south, The Caucus is reporting:
Clinton Complaints: The Clinton campaign is holding a conference call right now to report irregularities in Texas, where they say voters are being “actively disenfranchised.”

Among the complaints, they say that at “numerous locations,” Obama supporters “have taken over the caucus and locked out Clinton supporters.”

Yeah, this race could get ugly if it stretches on past tonight.

9:00pm
: Polls are closed in Rhode Island. Now the Texas caucuses are the only event in town. Everyone else is counting votes.

8:55pm: Rhode Island is up next as are the counties held open longer in Ohio and the Mountain time zone's areas of west Texas. All at the top of the hour.

8:40pm: Politico is the source for some juicy speculation. First they broke the story that Clinton may go after Obama's pledged delegates and now they report that Obama has silently lined up a slate of superdelegates who are set to announce their support in the near future. This slate may prove moot if Obama wraps things up tonight. That story remains to be told.

8:38pm: Polls have been held open longer in the Cleveland area to accommodate for the high turnout there today.
---from Politico.com via the Obama campaign

8:32pm: I missed it earlier, but the caucuses got under way in Texas at 8:15pm. Party business first or presidential preference? What will they do? Here's hoping for the latter. Otherwise, it could be a long night.

8:23pm: Ohio, we have a problem. Well, this is hardly scientific, but the counties are being shaded in on the Democratic map of Texas on the New York Times Election Guide. Ohio remains completely colorless. The Caucus via the AP is reporting that the Secretary of State in Ohio has asked for court permission to keep polling locations in Sandusky County, Ohio open until 9pm (see their 7:54 post)..

8:13pm: Ooh, The New York Times has moved the pretty maps from the state by state Election Guides up to the front page for tonight's contest.

8:06pm: Here come the lawyers. Both Democratic campaigns are complaining about voting problems in Ohio. See, I told you Ohio couldn't buy a break. If you recall the divisive primaries post from last week, you may want to mark tonight down as the official point at which competition changed to divisiveness. It has been brewing since the debates, but may boil over after tonight if the outcome is still undecided.

8:00pm: Polls are close in Texas (Well, the polls in the eastern time zone at least.).

7:44pm: I should note that McCain also won in Vermont (see story below on the Obama projection there). Vermont is a solid winner-take-all, so McCain takes all 17 of those delegates, inching closer to that 1191 mark he needs.

7:33pm: McCain is the projected winner of Ohio. With the system there winner-take-all both in congressional districts and statewide, his share of the 88 delegates at stake in the state should get him about half way to the 177 he needs to break the 1191 barrier and win the nomination.

7:30pm: Polls are closed in Ohio.

7:21pm: Ohio closes up shop here in just under ten minutes. I doubt we see such a rapid projection of the winner in the Buckeye state. Flooding caused some polling places to be moved to accommodate voters in the southern part of the state. Ohio just can't seem to buy a break during election time. Officials there certainly hope this isn't foreshadowing of things to come in November. Of course, that is the story USA Today ran last week: stating that higher turnout like the 2008 primaries, could mean problems once the general election rolls around.

7:00pm: Polls are closed in Vermont. Best to just get another win out of the way. Before you could blink, Vermont went, as expected to Obama. The Drudge Report is indicating that the exit polls in the other three states are deadlocked. That's to be expected to some extent, but if your the Clinton camp, you have got to be hoping that what once seemed like a done deal in Rhode Island doesn't end up being the last nail in the coffin tonight when polls close there at 9pm. Change is apparently the winning theme in the exit polls as well, pushing experience on the back burner. Again, the Clinton team better hope that they have been able to co-opt some of that change message that Obama has used effectively to this point.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

It's Your Turn Badger State

My apologies to the good folks in Washington and Hawaii, but even at the level of political addiction that I'm at now won't keep up me up to see results that I know I can find out in the morning. The focus tonight will be on the dual contests in Wisconsin. Here are the particulars:
1) Both parties have open primaries. Independents, independents, independents. Which way will they break? McCain or Obama? The GOP race may appear less consequential to those independents and they may move over to the Obama camp.
2) Same day registration is in effect. New people to the process have been going for Obama since Iowa, so that could be a real boon for him.

9:55pm: I'll be back in the morning with a wrap up on Wisconsin and a discussion of Washington and Hawaii.

9:46pm: This has been a fairly shallow post from an analysis standpoint. However, I'll leave with this one note: Clinton's speech tonight in Ohio is an attempt to cast the Democratic battle as the difference between someone who is more substance than style. As part of that equation, she discusses readiness to be commander-in-chief; that she is the best qualified. Funny then (as The Caucus points out--see their 9:30 post) that Wisconsin exit polls seem to indicate that Badger state voters lean toward Obama on that issue. Clinton has an uphill climb, but the debates renew on Thursday in Ohio for what could be an interesting event.

9:30pm: The counties are lighting up now over at the NYT Election Guide for Wisconsin. The results so far (1% reporting):
Democrats:
Obama 54.3%
Clinton 44.7

Republicans:
McCain 58.7%
Huckabee 33.9


9:26pm: CNN has called Wisconsin for Obama. 2008 is different but this is starting to look like 2000 when Gore and Bush were running up victories in the contests that year. Obama and McCain have had all the fun since last Tuesday.

9:18pm: The AP (via The Drudge Report) has Obama jumping out to a lead against a "fading" Hillary Clinton. Sure, Obama has led in the polls in Wisconsin, but to hit Clinton with fading at the outset hurts. Then again, Obama's ability to cut into Clinton's support among women these last two weeks will do that.

9:07pm: As the McCain link below also indicates, Obama is leading Clinton early on. I'm still waiting on the first counties to be colored in on NYT's Election Guide for Wisconsin.

9:02pm: Ha! Well, McCain is the GOP winner according to ABC. Sp much for that "huge, unexpected" victory for Huckabee.

9:00pm: What? No winners projected?

8:55pm: Here's more analysis of the exit polls from The Caucus.

8:50pm: We are ten minutes away from polls closing in Wisconsin. The exit polls are suggesting that "change" was on the mind of Wisconsin voters. On its face that sounds like advantage Obama. But most of the Democratic voters in Wisconsin were women and/or seniors. There were some cracks in those typical Clinton groups last week in the Potomac primaries, but will Wisconsin follow that lead?

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

The Potomac Primary Results Show

Polls close in Virginia in the next couple of minutes and in DC and Maryland at 8pm. How will it play out tonight? We'll use a top down update approach tonight.

9:52pm: Back tomorrow with more on the impact of the race heading forward and impressions of what transpired.

9:50pm: Here are the results via NYT's Election Guide (ooh, with the maps):
Virginia
DC
Maryland

9:48pm: CNN and the other networks are now calling DC for Obama and McCain. No real shock there. Well, the shock is that it took so long for any results to surface.

9:30pm: Again, that didn't take long. The networks (here's CNN) have chalked Maryland up for Obama and McCain already. Not really a surprise on either side, but such an early call is bad news for Clinton and Huckabee.

9:29pm: Well, DC won't post anything until 10:30 according to the Board of Elections there (via The Caucus--9:25pm post).

9:17pm: Suh-low. Things have slowed way down. Well, polls are only a few more minutes away from closing in Maryland.

8:54pm: Well, the 8 o'clock hour was a bit strange. Maryland got pushed back and DC disappeared. The New York Times has replaced the 8pm poll closing time with 0% reporting for DC, so the numbers should begin trickling (apparently) in soon.

8:41pm: Now all the rest of the networks are following suit on the McCain call in Virginia. Does Huckabee's showing attain better than expected status? The margin will be less than ten points. In the end, I think it continues to indicate that McCain has issues with conservatives, but that story is going to get old fast if McCain keeps winning.

8:35pm: CNN is calling Virginia for McCain. This thing is still very close (from the NYT Election Guide--48% reporting).
McCain 46.4%
Huckabee 45.2

8:18pm: Ouch! The shake ups continue in the Clinton campaign. Now her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has resigned (via The Fix). This just won't look good beside headlines like the one immediately below.

8:16pm: CNN is running the headline, "Obama Wins 6th in a Row." Truthfully, does that smack of momentum or not?

8:01pm: Or not. Polls in Maryland will be open until 9:30pm because of inclement weather across the state.

7:53pm: We are now seven minutes away from DC and Maryland closing up shop for the night. How quickly will those races be called and how much longer will the GOP race in Virginia play out?

7:50pm: Is it me or is this Clinton-Texas-Ohio firewall strategy not at least somewhat reminiscent of Giuliani's holing up in Florida for the entire month of January? Now, I'm sure she'll make some appearances in Wisconsin, but Obama is there now celebrating his Virginia win (see 7:41 post on The Caucus live blog). I don't know, that parallel just popped into my head.

7:45pm: Just looking at the map on the Times Election Guide for Virginia, western Virginia looks like Arkansas east. Clinton and Huckabee did their best in the rural, mountain part of the state. Look for the college areas (also in the mountain region of Virginia) in Blackburg and Charlottesville to go for Obama and McCain though.

7:41pm: I don't know what hurts McCain worse: that Virginia is close or that Virginia has an open primary and it is still a close race with independents (Well, the ones who didn't decide to cast their vote for Obama. I thought that was supposed to be the New Hampshire outcome.).

7:33pm: Now the numbers that we expected to see begin to emerge (3% reporting). The better than expected scenario looks better for Huckabee than it does for Clinton right now.
Democrats:
Obama 62.1%
Clinton 36.9

Republicans:
McCain 44.3%
Huckabee 48.2

7:21pm: Here come the Virginia numbers (from the New York Times Election Guide--0% reporting):
Democrats:
Obama 50.6%
Clinton 48.1

Republicans:
McCain 38%
Huckabee 54.9
What does that tell us? Not much. If anything, if the numbers were flip-flopped between parties it would probably end up being more accurate. Now's the time to remind everyone that it is the Times that has those great county by county maps.

7:15pm: Despite the exit polling, let's not forget that Virginia holds an open primary and that Maryland is closed. That may give Clinton something of an advantage in Maryland until you factor in the reports of very high turnout among African Americans there (see caption below picture). One thing to note also from that story is that white men went with Obama over Clinton in Virginia. Virginia women backed Obama as well (see 7:09 post on The Caucus' live blog).

7:08pm: Notice that no one is calling the Virginia race on the Republican side. Can that be good news for McCain?

7:03pm: Now the New York Times is reporting that the major networks (Here's ABC's.) and the AP have projected Obama the winner in Virginia. That was fast.

7:00pm: The Drudge Report is indicating that exit polls show Obama ahead 2:1 in Virginia and Maryland and 3:1 in DC. If that comes to pass that will out pace even the rosiest of polls favoring Obama in those locales recently. *As always, these are exit polls, not actually results.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Results (Live Blog)

Let's dispatch with the niceties and get right down to business. There are a lot of delegates at stake in today's contests and the fun starts right here in Georgia. Polls closed at 7pm.

7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.

7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.

7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
"Georgia Closes: Here’s one thing we can tell you so far from the early exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. For Democrats, the most important issue facing the country is the economy, far out-pacing the war in Iraq and health care. Nine of 10 Democratic primary voters say the economy is either not so good or poor."

7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
McCain 37%
Huckabee 32
Romney 27
7:43pm: Let's not forget that Bill Clinton used Georgia as his first, post-New Hampshire (Comeback Kid circa 1992) victory to catapult him into the driver's seat in the race for the nomination that year. The state also played a valuable role in his general election campaign in 1992. For the Clintons to lose the state says a lot. Mostly that the state Democratic party is much different today than it was in 1992. Zell Miller led the charge in Georgia for Clinton in 1992. That wing of the party as since moved on leaving a party much more female and much more African American than they were then (simple percentages of the party).

7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).

8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.

8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.

8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.

8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.

8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.

8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.

8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.

8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.

9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).

9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.

9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
Huckabee 35%
McCain 32
Romney 29
9:18pm: ABC just projected Clinton the winner in New Jersey. So other than Deleware, Clinton is doing well in the Northeast. Connecticut is still up in the air.

9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.

9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.

9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.

9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.

9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
"Money, Money, Money Here’s a hint about Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing in Mass. She way outspent Mr. Obama on television. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots by Mr. Obama, who spent $27,000. That spending in Massachusetts is from Jan. 2007 through Feb. 3, 2008."

9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.

10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.

10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.

10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.

10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.

10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.

10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.

10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.

10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.

10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?

10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.

10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.

10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.

10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.

10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.

11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.

11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.

11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.

11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.

11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.

11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.

11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.

11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.

The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).

Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats

Republicans

Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Primary Results from the Sunshine State

The Drudge Report is giving McCain an ever so slight edge via the Florida exit polls. Say what you will about Drudge, but he was calling the battleground states with surprising accuracy during the 2004 election.

The numbers from those polls:
McCain 34.3%
Romney 32.6
Giuliani 15.3
Huckabee 12
*These are not raw numbers from the actual primary. They are exit poll numbers. Keep in mind that absentee and early voting has reached new heights in Florida during the lead up to today.

The press is showing some surprising restraint (at least in my eyes) in not really saying a whole lot about the Democratic race thus far. Despite there being no delegates at stake in Florida for the Democrats, turnout has been high. Of course, as Rob rightly points out in the comments section below, there was a tax initiative on the ballot that motivated a lot people to turnout today.

7:31pm: Early results are in. Reports of a tight race between McCain and Romney were right on the mark.
McCain 30.2
Romney 30.0
Giuliani 17.4
Huckabee 15.5

For the Democrats, Clinton is enjoying a margin similar to what Obama had over her in South Carolina last weekend.
Clinton 53.5%
Obama 26.1
Edwards 16.5

I should also add that exit polls are showing that the economy was viewed (see first post at botton) by over half of Democrats and by nearly half of all Republican primary voters are the biggest issue.

9:21pm: With 57% in on the GOP side, McCain has a four point lead.
McCain 35.4%
Romney 31.4
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 13.3
For the Dems, Clinton is still up by around 20 points. Is there anyway that if Obama sneaks to within 15 points or less (not really all that likely) of the lead, that he can claim some small measure of victory? I'd lean toward no, but what are other people's thoughts?

A couple of other things:
CBS Evening News on their broadcast tonight had a striking figure concerning the number of ads McCain and Romney have run so far. Romney had a nearly 10-1 edge with 4000 some ads run to McCain's 470 or so. Predictably CBS replaced their pre-Florida results segment with post-Florida coverage on their online version of the news. The Fix made mention of the same statistic adding even more information (saying that that was just in Florida). See the fourth bullet point down for that. The Times also has a piece discussing McCain's spending lately. That may explain the shortness of cash in his coffers.


Well, as of 9:37pm
, the conservative New York Times (at least when it comes to calling winners of these things and counting delegates) has called the GOP race for McCain. That should certainly help financially heading into the smörgåsbord of primaries and caucuses next Tuesday.

Here are the final results from Florida:
McCain 36.0%
Romney 31.1
Giuliani 14.6
Huckabee 13.5

Clinton 49.7%
Obama 33.0
Edwards 14.4

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Obama Back in the Win Column in South Carolina

Well, that didn't take long. Eleven minutes after the polls closed in South Carolina, The New York Times called Obama the winner of the state's Democratic primary. Exit polls are showing an overwhelming level of support for Obama amongst African Americans. Among whites, the three candidates were much closer when Clinton and Edwards bunch together and Obama not far behind. The question now is how well was Edwards able to do (...at Clinton's expense). The answer to that question will go a long way toward telling us whether he'll be able to survive until Super Tuesday (a week from Tuesday) and how much spin we will hear out of the Clinton camp.

7:29pm: They must round down because with 0% of precincts reporting Obama leads.
Obama 64%
Clinton 24
Edwards 12

7:38pm: Just to show that even 0% was no fluke: with 2% now reporting it's...
Obama 51%
Clinton 34
Edwards 15

Oh and don't forget to check things out over at scvotes.org. Those maps will look good once they start coloring them in. And no phone books or xeroxed copies of maps necessary.

Also, The Caucus over at the New York Times has a nice live blog going concerning the primary results.

9:25pm: I'm assuming that this is going to pass the decisiveness test that Rob placed on an Obama victory. With 96% in it's:
Obama 55%
Clinton 27
Edwards 18


So, let's do an instant analysis here. Obama has made a statement that he's going to be a factor on February 5 (that he's not just the guy who won Iowa). Clinton has has her string of victories broken and will now begin to spin the "unimportance" of South Carolina. Edwards is now left wondering whether he can keep garnering as much of the support as he has in the earlier states when it is clear he won't win the nomination. You can't be kingmaker if you can't at least pick off a decent chunk of delegates.

There are now two days between now and the Florida primary on Tuesday. Do any of the Democrats venture into the state in that time? Is Edwards desperate enough even after having cast himself as the rule guy in this race (taking matching funds, staying out of Michigan and off the ballot there) to break the party rules and attempt to make some waves in Florida?


Saturday, January 19, 2008

Clinton and Romney claim Nevada Victories and SC polls just closed

Former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney made it two in a row with an easy win in the Nevada GOP caucus this morning to go along with his win in the Michigan primary on Tuesday. Taking a winning streak into an off week won't hurt him either with Florida voters now having just less than two weeks to consider what still remains an open race on the Republican side. While Romney's camp made a last minute decision to focus on Nevada every other candidate (well, almost every other one--Giuliani is still in Florida) was putting in time in South Carolina. The polls just closed in the Palmetto state and early exit polls indicate the economy and immigration (see 7:09pm post) were on the minds of South Carolina's Republican primary voters; a clear advantage for Huckabee. TRACKING...

7:41pm: Very early but with one percent of precincts in, McCain has a 38-23 lead over Huckabee (Look, I said it was early.).

8:05pm: Just to show you that 1% isn't representative of the entire state of South Carolina on the GOP side: McCain 34, Huckabee 30 with 12% in. This one could be fun. Third place seems like a real battle between Thompson and Romney with hovering around 14%.

9:29pm: The New York Times is calling the race for McCain. When you look at that 15% that Thompson got you can't help but wonder how much that hurt Huckabee's chances at a win in SC. He (Huckabee) has a tough row to hoe now.

Meanwhile the Democrats had a caucus in Nevada as well, where Hillary Clinton continued a streak of her own. She has now run her streak of victories to two (three if you want to count Michigan and the DNC isn't) after an initial setback in Iowa's caucuses. And boy were the polls from earlier in the week wrong. What looked like a tight three-way race for the Silver state turned into a tight two-way race as former North Carolina senator, John Edwards managed a meager four percent of the vote. Clinton and Obama split the remaining 96%, 51-45. Obama didn't seem to get the support he was hoping for from the endorsement of the Culinary Workers union. While the union's endorsement was seen as a big deal, it didn't prove influential among the rank and file members as some strayed into the Clinton camp.

While the GOP is off until Florida on January 29, the Democrats have their own primary in South Carolina next Saturday where the support of African Americans will be key to which ever candidate claims victory there.

Nevada results.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Huckabee takes Iowa...Obama too.

The New Yorks Times blog The Caucus is reporting that Romney has conceded and that's with just fifteen percent of the precincts reporting as of 8:05pm (IA time). On to South Carolina for Huckabee and Romney heads to New Hampshire to try and hold off McCain for the next few days.

For the Dems, it is a tight race. Obama tops the list and Edwards is literally a handful of votes ahead of Clinton with 50% of the precincts in.

UPDATE: Things are still tight on the Democratic side. Obama seems to be pulling away but as of 8:30pm Edwards led Clinton by just three votes. Obama is doing better than expected in conservative area; areas considered to be Edwards' strongholds.

UPDATE: The New York Times is calling the Democratic race for Obama. With 84% of precincts reporting (8:41pm), Obama led with 37% of the vote. Edwards still holds an extremely slim edge over Clinton (just four votes). Let the spin begin from those two camps. The way I read it, a third place finish is a third place finish for Clinton. It will be interesting to see how they play that as the race shifts to New Hampshire.

UPDATE: At 9pm with 92% of the precincts in, Obama-37, Edwards-30 and Clinton-30. Edwards holds a nine vote lead over Clinton.