Showing posts with label Wyoming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wyoming. Show all posts

Sunday, December 27, 2015

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: WYOMING

This is part sixteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

WYOMING

Election type: caucus
Date: March 1
Number of delegates: 29 [23 at-large, 3 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: determined by state and/or county convention(s) or left unbound
Threshold to qualify for delegates: n/a
2012: non-binding caucuses

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Changes since 2012
As FHQ argued at the outset of the discussion of the Vermont Republican Party plan to allocate delegates for 2016, there are only so many ways to allocate a small number of delegates. That is probably less an issue of the total number of delegates than it is a function of a lack of congressional districts to divide up the allocation in various ways. That is the case in Wyoming as well. With the state being its own congressional district -- like in Vermont -- there are few alternatives to pooling all of the delegates and allocating them in a manner consistent with the national party guidelines (which is to say proportionally for any contest before March 15).

Wyoming Republicans, however, have chosen one of those alternatives.

And the decision to travel a route different than a pre-March 15 proportionality plan was seemingly made with an eye toward preserving the standard delegate selection operating procedure than anything else. And honestly, that is a fairly common state-level reaction to national party delegate rules tweaking; taking the path of least resistance. Stated differently, if it ain't (too) broke, don't fix it.

Traditionally, Wyoming Republicans have allocated about half of their total allotment of delegates at county conventions and the other half at the state convention. But in the face of rules changes at the RNC level for the 2016 cycle, Equality state Republicans were presented with a couple of issues. First, the party has tended to, according to state party bylaw, held the first step of the caucus/convention process -- the precinct caucuses before March. However, Wyoming Republicans 1) held a presidential preference vote/straw poll at those first step caucuses, but 2) did not allocate or elect delegates at that stage.

The straw poll prior to March is a no-go under the new RNC delegate selection rules, specifically because of the new requirement to bind delegates. Without that preference vote, though, Wyoming Republicans are able to conduct their precinct caucuses on or before March 1.

Those precinct caucuses feed into the March 12 county caucuses that will, in turn, continue to elect delegates to the national convention. Again, like Vermont, there is but one congressional district that encompasses all of Wyoming. Unlike Vermont, Wyoming Republicans make a clearer attempt at electing delegates to the national convention from across the state. The standard operating procedure the party has traditionally used has been to pair each of its 23 counties with another.1 In one cycle, one of the counties in the pair selects a national convention delegate and the other selects an alternate. For the following cycle, the two counties in the pair switch roles. So, a county that elected an alternate in 2012 will choose a national convention delegate in 2016.

That process has carried over from previous cycles to 2016, but the most marked difference in Wyoming for 2016 is the nixing of the straw poll vote at the precinct caucus level. Yes, that theoretically allows the party to maintain an unbound delegation, but the true intent behind the removal of the preference vote was to both stay compliant with the RNC rules and maintain the bulk of the traditional delegate selection process in the Equality state.


Delegate allocation/Binding 
In practice, the lack of a straw poll means Wyoming is similar to Colorado but without the messy backstory. Some of the delegates to the national convention -- 12 of them -- will be elected at the March 12 county conventions throughout Wyoming (as opposed to congressional district conventions in Colorado). The remaining 14 delegates -- essentially at-large delegates -- will be elected at the April 14-16 state convention.

Like Colorado, sequence matters in Wyoming. Delegate candidates at both the county conventions and the state convention must file paperwork with either the county party chairperson or the state chairman before the respective conventions pledging to a particular candidate. The language on both forms is specific but does not preclude a delegate candidate from remaining unpledged.2 Regardless, delegate candidates who have pledged to a particular presidential candidate will be bound to that candidate at the national convention. The only unbound delegates would be those who commit to being uncommitted to a particular presidential candidate.

Again, the sequence is important here. Delegates to the national convention will be chosen on March 12. Another group will be elected on April 16. Those delegates will be locked in at those points. That March date is early enough that delegates could be chosen and bound to candidates who subsequently withdraw from the race. The Rule 16(f) filing Wyoming Republicans submitted to the RNC laying out their rules for delegate selection do not explain any process for the release delegates in the event that the candidate to whom they are pledged drops out of the race. That said, the delegates at the April state convention are responsible for ratifying the delegates selected at the county convention level (in addition to electing 14 at-large delegates).

Ultimately, though, the delegate candidates eventually chosen will be bound by the pledge form submitted at the county convention or state convention stage. 

The automatic delegates -- the state party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman -- from Wyoming are not explicitly unbound according to the state party bylaws. That has been the case in the past, but FHQ was informed in recent conversations with the Republican National Committee that Rule 16(a)(1) binds all delegates from a delegation. The only exception is for delegates elected directly (on the ballot). That does not include party/automatic delegates. How those delegates are allocated/bound when the state rules are not clear on their allocation is a bit of an unknown and something of a wildcard.


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In the end, the Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection plan is more like Colorado's than anything else. Those registered Republicans willing to invest the time necessary to make it through each step of the process are more likely to be activists within the state party than passersby only tangentially interested in the presidential race. That has an impact on turnout and eventually the outcome of the delegate selection process. It tends to, consistent with the Meinke, et al. conclusion, grant the state party more control over the process.

But this one is less open -- not to mention unbound -- than was discussed back in early October when the RNC revealed the state-level rules. Wyoming Republican delegates will be bound to the presidential candidate to whom they have pledged heading into the conventions where those delegates are chosen.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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1 Laramie County is the odd numbered, 23rd county in all of this that selects both a delegate and an alternate every cycle.

2 That pledge is as follows:
As a candidate for the office of Delegate to National Convention, I hereby declare that I am supporting and will cast my vote at National Convention for ______________________________________ as the Republican Nominee for the office of Presidentof the United States. With this declaration I ask for the support of the voters in my County Convention/Delegates to the Wyoming State Convention.


Monday, September 7, 2015

Wyoming Republicans Aiming for March 1 Caucuses in 2016

During past cycles, the Wyoming Republican Party has selected delegates to the national convention through a caucus/convention process. In that respect, the mode of delegate selection will not change in 2016. However, changes to the national party rules forced the Wyoming Republican Party to entertain alterations to its standard protocol; changes that came to fruition during the party's July state central committee meeting.

There has been some talk recently about the move made by the Republican Party in Colorado to strip out the presidential preference vote from the precinct caucuses stage of its caucus/convention system. That change is viewed as significant if not controversial because it seemingly renders the precinct caucuses stage meaningless. But that has tended to be the exact same thing that neighboring Wyoming Republicans have done in the past. Across the northern border of Colorado, Wyoming Republicans have typically held early precinct caucuses to select delegates to move on to and participate in county conventions. It has been at that second level -- the second step in the caucus/convention process -- where Wyoming Republicans have conducted a presidential preference vote. That vote, in turn, has selected roughly half of the Equality state's delegates to the Republican National convention. The other portion of delegates are elected at the later state convention.

But 2016 will be different for Wyoming Republicans.

Again, the tinkering that the RNC has done to the national party delegate selection rules has sent some state parties scrambling in an attempt to maintain or come back into compliance. That has led to action on the state level that reveals some variance in the interpretation of the national party rules. In Wyoming's case, state party bylaws permit the party to hold a "straw poll" -- presidential preference vote -- in January or February. Since those types of votes are required now by the national party rules to bind delegates to particular candidates, a January or February vote would place Wyoming in violation of the Republican National Committee rules.

To come out from under the shadow of sanctions from the national party, Wyoming Republicans have opted to schedule their precinct caucuses on March 1 and to conduct a straw poll -- presidential preference vote -- at that stage. Delegate candidates for the county conventions -- on Saturday, March 12 -- will be required to state their candidate preferences at the precinct stage.

What does all this mean?

For starters, there is a date on which the Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection process will begin: March 1. Also, though, we can glean from this action that the state party felt compelled to move everything -- every step of the caucus/convention process -- beyond the February/March line between carve-out states and the beginning of the proportionality window. In other words, unlike Colorado, Wyoming Republicans perceived a need to move the precinct caucus stage (with a straw poll vote) out of the carve-out state window for 2016. The new binding requirement from the RNC and stiffer penalties for contests starting before March 1 prompted Wyoming Republicans to delay the start of their delegate selection process until March.

Compared to 2012, the 2016 Wyoming Republican Party will begin its delegate selection process in March and with a binding straw poll vote.

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A tip of the cap to Liberty News for flagging the central committee changes for FHQ.


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Friday, April 3, 2015

For 2016, Wyoming Democrats Eye April 9 Caucuses

On March 23, the Wyoming Democratic Party released the initial draft of their 2016 delegate selection plan.1 While it is subject to revision -- having to go before the public for a 30 day comment period before being sent off to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee before May 4 for approval -- this does provide a rough guide to how Democrats in the Equality state will select and allocate delegates to the national convention in 2016.

Part of that plan includes the tentative date of the state party's delegate selection event. As of now, it looks like Wyoming Democrats are keying in on an April 9 date for the caucuses that will kick off a delegate selection process that will culminate with at the state convention. That calendar position is consistent with the second Saturday in April calendar spot the party used for caucuses in 2012. That is a month later than when the Wyoming Democratic caucuses were held in 2008.

NOTE: FHQ will pencil these dates in on the 2016 presidential primary calendar, but please note that the plans are not finalized and are still subject to change. With very few exceptions, though, the 2012 draft plans for caucuses states did not change.

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1 The above link is to the plan on the Wyoming Democratic Party site. FHQ will also keep a version of the plan here.


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Monday, April 23, 2012

Race to 1144: MN, MO & WY Conventions


Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown
 (post-MN, MO & WY conventions):
Changes since Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota state/district conventions (4/17/12):
  • Romney: +31 delegates (Wyoming: +14, Missouri: +12, Tennessee: +2, Arkansas: +1, Illinois: +1, Oregon: +1, Alabama: +1)
  • Santorum: +7 delegates (Missouri: +7)
  • Paul: +16 delegates (Minnesota: +10, Missouri: +4, Colorado: +2)
  • Gingrich: +/- 0 delegates (Missouri: +1, Alabama: -1)
Notes:
1) It should be noted that the delegates are difficult to classify in both Nevada and Vermont as both sets of automatic delegates are bound and proportionally allocated with either all of the delegates (Nevada) or with the at-large delegates (Vermont). Those six delegates are in the bound/pledged category in the spreadsheet above but are considered "contest delegates" in the bar chart at the top. It would not be surprising to see those six delegates among those who signed pledges to Romney at the RNC meeting in Scottsdale this past week when and if that list is made public.

2) Speaking of that list of pledges, at least five of the automatic delegates have been identified.

3) FHQ remembered to follow Colorado and Minnesota last weekend while I was on the road at a conference in Chicago, but the Wyoming Republican Party state convention was something I missed. All 14 of the delegates to be allocated at the state convention were allocated to Mitt Romney:
"The Wyoming Republican Party chose 14 delegates Saturday to this summer's Republican National Convention and all of them are committed to support Romney. The state will send a total of 29 delegates to the RNC."
4) Two of the unpledged delegates coming out of the Colorado conventions a week ago are Ron Paul supporters.
"Todd King of Lewis and Luke Kirk of Bayfield, both supporters of Texas congressman Ron Paul, were elected delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in August. They edged out the official slate of Romney delegates at Friday evening’s convention of 3rd Congressional District Republicans."
Don't be surprised when and if more of the other 12 unpledged Colorado delegates reveal themselves to be aligned with Paul.

5) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters won slots in the four conventions held over the weekend, bringing Paul's total delegates won in the North Star state to 20 -- half the total Minnesota delegation. The affiliation of the weekend's remaining two delegates are unknown.

6) In the eight Missouri congressional district conventions over the weekend, Mitt Romney won half of the 24 total delegates at stake. The other twelve delegates were divided among Santorum (7 delegates), Paul (4 delegates) and Gingrich (1 delegate). Romney swept all of the delegates in the 4th and 8th districts. Ron Paul did the same in the 5th district. Three candidates took delegates in each of the 1st and 6th districts while the final three districts elected Romney-Santorum slates.

7) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.

8) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. UPDATE (4/23/12, 1pm): Admittedly, FHQ had not checked on the Alabama delegate situation in a while [BOO! -- But thanks to Matt for prompting me to check in the comments below.]. In the meantime, the Alabama Republican Party revamped their website and now glosses over the delegate allocation. The press releases section now skips from April to February in the inverted chronology with nothing from March. I was still unable to track down the certified results by congressional district, but there is a certified delegate allocation from the Alabama Republican Party floating around out there:
Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Certified Results

What was "preliminary" about the delegate list in the memo on March 23 was "confirmed" by the Alabama Republican Party on or around April 6.

Recent Posts:
Another Weekend, Another Mixed Bag for Romney in Caucus State Delegate Allocation

In Missouri, A Bill to Bind Delegates Based on the Presidential Primary; Not the Caucus

Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions


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Monday, March 19, 2012

Disputed Wyoming County Delegate Awarded to Romney

The Park County (WY) Republican Party Executive Committee voted on Monday night allocate its previously disputed delegate -- one Rick Santorum had won on a third ballot -- to Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor has won the second ballot vote at the county convention, but that vote was contested leading to a third vote. In a release tonight, the Park County Republican Party described why the third vote should not have taken place and the second vote should have ended the proceedings:
Release from the Park County Republican Party Executive Committee Tonight, the Park County Republican Executive Committee in an unanimous decision determined that Mr. Charles Cloud was the rightful winner of the Park County Convention RNC delegate election. Accordingly, the County Chairwoman, Geri Hockhalter, has transmitted to the Chair of the Wyoming State Republican Party notification that Mr. Cloud is the elected RNC delegate from Park County, Wyoming.

Mr. Cloud won a majority vote on the second round of balloting at the Park County Convention. The motion to cancel his election and proceed to a third round of balloting did not pass by the required 2/3 vote. Accordingly, the third round of balloting should not have taken place and was invalid.-
Park County National Delegate awarded to Romney.

Mr. Cloud won a majority vote on the second round of balloting at the Park County Convention. The motion to cancel his election and proceed to a third round of balloting did not pass by the required 2/3 vote. Accordingly, the third round of balloting should not have taken place and was invalid.-Park County National Delegate awarded to Romney.
That brings the Romney total in Wyoming up to 8 (plus an automatic delegate) and takes the Santorum total in the Equality state down to 2.


Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Illinois

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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Romney is the Winner in Wyoming Straw Poll


Mitt Romney has won the Wyoming Republican Party precinct caucuses straw poll. The former Massachusetts governor placed second to Ron Paul in the final precinct/county vote in Sweetwater County. But the dirty little secret of the Wyoming delegate selection process is that while the straw poll had to add the numbers from Sweetwater to the tabulation, the set up for the delegate allocation at the county conventions next week was over last night. That is because Sweetwater County is one of the eleven counties that will only select an alternate delegate to attend the national convention from the county convention. Now, to be sure, what happened at the precinct caucuses this evening will still have an impact on the selection of at-large delegates from the April state convention, but it will be as part of the total gathering at the state convention.

The more important question is what can we glean from the results of the caucuses that will select delegates -- not alternates -- to the national convention next week. As long time FHQ reader, Scott, pointed out on Twitter to me this morning (and before I had a chance to look myself, too!), out of the 12 counties, Romney won the straw poll in five, Santorum in four others and Paul took the remaining three.  Will that be how those 12 delegates are allocated next week at the county conventions? My strong hunch is that it will be, but as is the case in many of the caucus states thus far, there is nothing to suggest that Romney pushed more precinct-to-county level delegates through than Santorum, then Paul, then Gingrich. Much will depend on how that vote -- the county convention delegate vote -- went rather than the snapshot the straw poll provides.

[To review the delegate selection rules the Wyoming Republican Party is using click here.]


Source: Wyoming Republican Party

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Santorum Inches Closer in Wyoming Straw Poll

With just one final county left to hold precinct caucuses (Sweetwater County later today), Rick Santorum has slightly closed the gap on Mitt Romney in the Wyoming precinct caucuses straw poll. The former Pennsylvania senator shaved about 40 votes off of Romney's 170 lead in the latest round of votes in Converse, Park and Platte Counties on Tuesday evening. That pulls Romney under 40% with Santorum closing in on a third of the overall vote. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich lag behind in the count with 20% and 8% of the straw poll, respectively (click on the most recent date at the bottom of the spreadsheet for the latest total).


Source: Wyoming Republican Party
[Click date for latest total]


Again, this is all part of a non-binding straw poll that leads up to the county conventions beginning on Super Tuesday; a step in the process where 12 delegates to the national convention.


Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Georgia

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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Romney Still Ahead in Wyoming Precinct Caucus Straw Poll Count

FHQ will not spend too much time discussing the addition of 20 total votes from Niobrara County, Wyoming (click on the most recent date at the bottom of the spreadsheet for the latest total), but needless to say those votes did not alter the general pattern that has developed across counties thus far in the Equality state. Mitt Romney leads and even though he only captured three votes out of twenty in a county that Ron Paul won, it was still a better showing than the goose egg Rick Santorum put up there. The former Massachusetts governor still retains a better than 170 vote advantage with just a handful of counties yet to vote.

There are three more counties to hold their precinct caucuses and straw poll vote and one other (Converse County) where the caucuses that started on Monday will wrap up tonight. The straw poll/precinct caucus portion of the process will be complete on Wednesday.


Source: Wyoming Republican Party
[Click date for latest total]

For more on Wyoming see here and here.

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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Romney Leading in Wyoming Precinct Caucus Votes

With 50 more votes cast in the Johnson County, Wyoming precinct caucus meeting yesterday, the Republican delegate selection process in the Equality state continued. Over three-quarters of the way through the precinct caucuses, Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by 171 votes with just over 1700 votes cast. Romney has garnered 41% of the vote in the 18 (of 23) counties to have held a straw poll votes thus far. Santorum at this point has 31% followed by Ron Paul at 20% and Gingrich well back at 7% of the vote. The remaining precinct caucuses and straw poll votes will be conducted between now and Wednesday when the window in which these meetings closes according to party rules.
  Source: Wyoming Republican Party

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Now, again, the same basic ground rules apply in the Wyoming as in the other caucus states to have held votes on the precinct level already: There is no rule regarding the method by which delegates are selected on the precinct level to move on to the county/district/state convention level. There is no rule that says that process has to be proportional or winner-take-all based on the non-binding straw poll vote. But if everyone who votes in the straw poll stays around for the selection of delegates who move on to the county level -- in the case of Wyoming -- then the ultimate selection of delegates to the county level, we should assume, would be largely proportional.

It should be noted as a follow up to yesterday's examination of the Wyoming process that the precinct to county transition is a bit blurry. A number of counties did not even break up into subunits/precincts and as a result function like county-wide meetings. From the county convention delegate perspective in those counties that had just one precinct meeting, there won't be any new faces at those county conventions that will take place between March 6-10. This likely will have little impact on the race, but it is worth pointing out. The other thing to note, is that there will be a quick turnaround from the precinct meetings to the county conventions. And while those delegates will be unbound heading to the county conventions there will be less time to move them -- from the campaigns' perspectives.

Romney is likely to maintain the lead in the Wyoming straw poll across the remaining five counties' contests over the next few days, but there will not be any delegates on the line until the counties select either their delegate or alternate in early March.


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Saturday, February 25, 2012

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Wyoming

This is the fourteenth in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.1 The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


WYOMING

Just yesterday FHQ lamented the fact that for most of the caucus states to have held precinct meetings thus far the rules have been largely consistent (non-binding, no direct allocation of delegates, etc.) across states. In Wyoming, however, we have a caucus/convention system with a different set of rules worth examining in some detail.

Quietly over the last two weeks, there have been precinct caucus meetings throughout the Equality state; caucus meetings that have held non-binding straw poll votes. This is similar to what has gone on in other caucus states, but differs from the plan used by Wyoming Republicans in 2008. Four years ago, the party began its convention process with county conventions from which approximately half of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota were directly chosen. In 2012, however, the state party shifted back the county conventions from January 5, 2008 to  Super Tuesday (through March 10). The party added another layer to the process, though, tacking the straw poll on to the precinct meetings before the county conventions as well.2 Those precinct meetings -- some of which ended up being county-wide meetings3 -- were to be held no more than 25 days and no less than 10 days prior to the point at which the county meeting is scheduled. Since the county meetings are scheduled for a window from March 6-10 that left a window for precinct meetings of February 9-29.4

A certain number of delegates -- a number designated by the county party but no less than two total delegates per precinct -- from each precinct are chosen to attend the county convention meetings. That delegate selection is conducted in addition to the non-binding straw poll vote that is being held at the precinct level. Again, once the process gets to the county level is the point at which national convention delegate selection begins to occur.

Here is the breakdown of Wyoming Republican delegates to the Republican National Convention:
  • 29 total delegates
  • 3 congressional district delegates
  • 23 at-large delegates
  • 3 automatic delegates
  • All delegates attend the national convention technically unbound, though, it is up to each delegate to decide to endorse a particular candidate ahead of time.
Note that FHQ did not discuss how those delegates were allocated (as in other similar posts in this series). That is mainly because the delegate selection is handled differently than most other caucus states. The congressional district delegates are not chosen at a congressional district convention because the state is its own lone congressional district. Similarly, not all of the at-large delegates are chosen at the state convention as in most other caucus state conventions. Instead, the Wyoming Republican Party  treats its counties -- in some sense -- like many other states treat their congressional districts. Wyoming, then, has what could be called county delegates and at-large delegates.

How does this work?

Well, there are 23 counties in Wyoming. Of those 23, 22 are placed into pairs.5 The remaining county, Laramie County, is a super county. In practice, Laramie County choses both a delegate to the national convention and an alternate delegate. For the paired counties, one of the pair choses a delegate while the other county in the pair chooses an alternate delegate. These pairs have previously -- as in across prior cycles -- been set and rotate within the pair the delegate/alternate distinction from cycle to cycle. The county pairs are the same as they were in 2008, but the counties that selected delegates to the convention in 2008 will be choosing alternates in 2012. That means that the counties that selected alternates in 2008 are now selecting delegates in 2012.

Confused yet?

Don't be. All this means is that 11 of the 22 paired counties will directly choose on March 6-10 one delegate to attend the national convention. In addition, Laramie County will choose a delegate as well making 12 county delegates. The remaining 14 delegates -- at-large delegates -- are chosen by and from among those delegates chosen at the county level to move on to the state convention. There is no binding mechanism at any point of this process to ensure that there is, for instance, a proportional or winner-take-all allocation of precinct delegates to the county level or county delegates to the state level.

In summary, then, while the precinct caucuses have been going on quietly throughout this gap in the February portion of the presidential primary calendar, the process -- while staggered -- has been much like what has been witnessed in Iowa or Minnesota or Colorado or Maine. Wyoming Republicans will, however, turn quite quickly around and in early March actually be selecting delegates to attend to the national convention. That will happen at the district level in those other caucus states, but not nearly so fast as what is happening in Wyoming. The state convention will complete the process in April.

NOTE: FHQ will have more later on the votes already cast in non-binding presidential preference straw poll that has been going on since February 11 (the same date as the Maine caucuses two weeks ago).

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1 FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

2 The precinct caucuses during the 2008 cycle actually took place in 2007 but with no straw poll.

3 Most of the precinct meetings were county-wide affairs, but a few counties broke the process up in to smaller subunits. For most of these precinct caucuses, then, the designation is precinct in name only.  The majority were county meetings held before the county convention.

4 The earliest precinct caucus date (February 9) is 25 days before the earliest county convention date (March 6) and the latest precinct caucus date (February 29) allowed is 10 days before the latest county convention date (March 10).

5 Those pairs of counties can be viewed in this memo on straw poll procedures distributed to the county parties by the Wyoming Republican Party in January:
Wyoming GOP Straw Poll Guidelines 1.2.12


Recent Posts:
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Friday, October 14, 2011

Housekeeping: Wyoming Democrats Avoid Passover Conflict with Alternate Caucus Date

[Click to Enlarge]

FHQ readers with a watchful eye may have read our post concerning the changed date for the Hawaii Democratic caucuses and had the same thought FHQ did. Hawaii Democrats had a conflict between their original April 7 caucuses date and the Passover/Easter holidays, does Wyoming, whose Democrats had also called for April 7 caucuses in their original delegate selection plan, have the same issue?

Yes.

Earlier in the week FHQ spoke with Kyle DeBeer, the interim executive director of the Wyoming Democratic Party, and he confirmed to us that the party had opted -- in an April 30, 2011 state central committee meeting -- to shift the date of the caucuses back a week on the calendar to April 14. That date continues to be about a month later than when the party began its delegate selection process in 2008. Wyoming Republicans will have precinct meetings and a straw poll between February 9-29 before some of the delegates are actually allocated in March 6-10 county convention meetings.

Below is the amended 2012 Wyoming Democratic Party Delegate Selection Plan:
2012 Wyoming Democratic Party Delegate Selection Plan

Friday, September 23, 2011

On Non-Binding Caucuses and Straw Polls

FHQ got a very astute email over the last weekend about the caucus procedure in Wyoming, and how FHQ categorizes some of the events on our calendar. Basically: Which ones make the cut and which ones don't? This is particularly problematic when it comes to the non-binding caucuses that are starting to pop up all over the early part of the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

Our policy here is that those contests matter. As I alluded to in the Colorado post in the wee hours of this morning, non-binding can be a misleading description. No, the results of the presidential preference straw polls that are held at the precinct level  are not binding on the ultimate allocation of delegates. If Romney were to get 60% of the vote in a precinct it would not necessarily mean that 60% of the delegates chosen in that precinct would move on to the county level. At the same time, it doesn't mean that those delegates are not aligned with or sympathetic to a particular candidate or campaign. It does not mean, then, that 60% of a precinct straw poll vote for Romney could not end up translating into no delegates to the county level or all the delegates from that precinct moving on to the county level. The two are not directly linked, but that doesn't mean that Romney and Perry and Paul and/or their surrogates are not working very hard to insure that their delegates are the ones to move to the next round.

In the end, yes, the delegates are not formally allocated until the state convention, but that doesn't mean that the fingerprints of the campaigns are not/have not been on the process from the precinct level on. It is a loophole in the Republican National Committee rules on delegate selection. Iowa and Nevada brought attention to that in 2008 and now a handful of state parties are using the rules -- not the toothless penalties in this case -- against the national party.

Having established that, one additional question remains from that aforementioned email: Why are Maine and Minnesota (and potentially Colorado) and their non-binding caucuses on the calendar and the precinct level straw polls planned for 10-25 days prior to the county caucuses in Wyoming not?1 The answer is that it has to do with several reasons. First of all, with such a wide range of dates on which these straw polls can take place the potential campaign effects are not as clear -- at least from the candidates'/campaigns' perspectives -- as if the precinct straw polls were on one uniform date. Yes, that appears to be a nitpicky point, but there is a reason that caucus states tend to hold precinct-level events on one day, more often than not. It is more efficient for them and as it turns out for the campaigns as well.

Secondly, and this is the bigger point, the straw polls in Wyoming are in isolation of the delegate selection process in a way that they are not in, say, Minnesota. As I mentioned above, concurrent with the straw poll in Minnesota, there is a process of selecting delegates to represent the precinct at the county level going on. That is not the case in Wyoming. An unknown number of precinct committeepersons -- those who can take part in the straw poll -- were elected during the August 2010 primary in Wyoming. Now, there is a process whereby others can become committee members outside of the primary process, but it is unknown how many vacancies exist and whether there is a cap on the number of committee members in the first place. Additionally, there is no filtering from the precinct level to the county level in Wyoming. In other words, all of the precinct committeepersons move on to participate in the county caucuses where part of the Wyoming Republican delegation will be determined directly. So, there may be Romney, Bachmann, Perry and Paul supporters who are precinct committeepersons, but there is no jockeying among them for a reduced number of county-level delegates.

Think of it like a game of musical chairs. If you, hypothetically, have 50 precinct participants who are up and walking around while the music is playing and then forty chairs are removed before the music stops, ten people will then have seats and can move on to the county level. That would be what would happen in Maine or Minnesota or Colorado from the precinct to county levels. In Wyoming, though, all fifty chairs are still there when the music stops and all the precinct committee members move on to the next round of music playing at the county convention level. Then the chairs begin to be removed.

As a result, the candidates are much more likely to pay attention to the placement of campaign loyalists in precinct committeeperson positions during the invisible primary -- to the extent they can add to that total or fill out vacancies -- but not really revisit the idea of delegates in Wyoming until the caucuses kick off in March.

But those two very important factors are why FHQ does not include the straw polls in Wyoming on our calendar.2

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1 One additional point raised in the email was that FHQ mentioned early on that that 10-25 day barrier set up a range of dates for the precinct level straw polls to take place: from February 10-25. That is a range 10-25 days prior to the March 6 date on which the Wyoming county caucuses are set to begin. Recall, however, that some caucuses in Wyoming may not be able to be held until March 10. The guidelines in the Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection plan are fairly ambiguous in terms of how this 10-25 day time period is to be applied, and FHQ's initial range -- February 10-25 -- proves to be but one interpretation of what that range is supposed to be. Those later caucuses would, in another interpretation of the rules, have until February 29 to hold a precinct-level straw poll. Additionally, it appears as if the Wyoming Republican Party includes February 9 in the range of dates for these straw polls to take place. It is the party's set of rules, so FHQ defers to them. The dates on which the Wyoming Republican straw polls will take place is from February 9-29.

2 That said, now that I've brought these straw polls up, I may be forced to include them.



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Monday, August 29, 2011

Caucuses to Begin on Super Tuesday for Wyoming Republicans

As FHQ mentioned in an earlier post, the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee met over the weekend to discuss 2012 delegate allocation. In particular, the committee voted to hold the party's presidential precinct caucuses/county conventions in March, but the date was unknown at the time. In the time since, Jeremy Pelzer at the Casper Tribune's Wyoming Capitol Journal blog has provided the answer:

The Wyoming Republican Party Central Committee voted Saturday to hold the party's presidential delegate selection starting on "Super Tuesday," March 6, said State GOP Chairwoman Tammy Hooper. However, some rural counties might not hold a vote until as late as March 10 because it would be hard for delegates in those areas to meet on a weeknight, she said.

"That's in calving season," Hooper said.

During caucus elections, held during county conventions, precinct delegates in each county will vote on delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. Each county will elect either an RNC delegate or an alternate -- except for Laramie County, which gets to choose one of each.

Twelve of Wyoming's 29 RNC delegates will be elected by the counties; the rest will include Gov. Matt Mead, Hooper, the state's two national committeepeople, and at-large delegates elected at the state GOP convention April 12-14 in Cheyenne.

Republicans will also hold a non-binding presidential straw poll during precinct caucuses, which will be held between 10-25 days before the county convention, Hooper said.

Hooper said the state GOP's central committee chose March 6 because Colorado Republicans are caucusing on the same day.

"We wanted to try to capitalize on the fact that Colorado's going to probably be a somewhat battleground state, and we're trying to capitalize on their energy," Hooper said.

Colorado is not the only Wyoming neighbor potentially with caucuses on that date. Idaho Republicans have also recently opted to hold Super Tuesday caucuses in lieu of a May primary. In fact, Colorado may not ultimately end up March 6. Colorado Republicans have expressed some interest in moving caucuses up to February 7; a date to which they can move under Colorado law.

From the look of the plan outlined above, Wyoming Republicans are actually starting their delegate selection process 10-25 days before the start of the March 6 county conventions -- in a February 10-25 window -- during which a non-binding straw poll will be held. The delegates will then be allocated in both the county conventions (county district delegates) and the state convention (automatic and at-large delegates).



Sunday, August 28, 2011

Wyoming Republicans Opt for March Caucuses

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The Wyoming Republican State Central Committee met in Casper on Saturday for their summer meeting and the timing of the state party's caucuses was on the agenda. Recall that the Wyoming GOP chose to challenge the national party rules in 2008, and there was an open discussion during the committee's spring meeting over whether to repeat the early 2008 caucuses or stick with the new national party rules in 2012. Very little news has come out of the meeting yesterday -- at least in terms of the date of the caucuses. However, the broad message that has emerged -- from Wyoming Republican consultant Bill Novotny via Twitter -- is that the committee decided not to take on the national party by choosing to begin their delegate selection process in March.

Again, that is the general take home from the meeting, but as of now the specifics regarding the actual date are still absent. Given the minutes from the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee meeting in April, it appears as if the two alternatives were 1) hold earlier than allowed caucus meetings or 2) hold those caucuses on the second Tuesday in March. In this case, the second option was given the green light. There is nothing in the Wyoming Republican Bylaws (2010) that in any way codifies a second Tuesday in March date as the usual date on which the party holds caucuses -- presidential or otherwise. Beyond that, the statement from the minutes of the April state central committee meeting that mentions that particular March date does not specify whether that is a potential caucus day or just a barrier before which the caucuses should/must be held.

For the time being, then, FHQ will reshade Wyoming on our 2012 presidential primary calendar map, but leave the date unspecified until the actual date can be verified.


Thursday, June 30, 2011

Wyoming GOP Split on 2012 Caucuses Date

FHQ has devoted a fair amount of space to the movement of presidential primaries and Democratic caucuses ahead of the 2012 presidential nomination race, but for the most part, the grapevine has been quiet concerning Republican caucuses. Very little information has come out of the state Republican Parties in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming about the timing of their caucus meetings next year. Sure, the political science literature will tell us that primaries are more important than caucuses, but these states represent question marks on the landscape of the primary calendar. All six states held opening caucus meetings in 2008 at points that would not be compliant under the 2012 delegate selection rules if used again. For the record, that is not usually a good benchmark for determining when caucuses will be held from cycle to cycle. Indeed, caucus dates are so volatile, that past dates are little help at all. In other words, though we haven't heard much from these state parties regarding their caucus dates, the are question marks and not threats to jump early on the calendar.

Still, if we're trying to figure out the layout of the overall calendar, those dates are information FHQ is interested in. And while I do not foresee most of these states attempting to "stampede" to the front, there is some evidence that at least one on the list might try. Wyoming Republicans, who violated RNC rules in 2008 by holding January 5 caucus meetings, are signaling that they may be willing to repeat the rules-breaking in 2012. But the minutes from the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee meeting in April indicate a split within the group. Here's the description from the Wyoming Republican Party (emphasis is FHQ's):
Fremont County Committeeman, John Birbari, stated that he would like to see our 2012 caucuses moved once again to an earlier date. John Birbari made the motion to move the Presidential caucus to be held before the second Tuesday in March, 2012, Brian Scott Gamroth, seconded the motion. During discussion, Big Horn County Committeeman, Bernie DuMontier, said he enjoyed having the caucus early because he was able to speak to 5 Presidential Candidates. Natrona County Chairman, Miles Dahlby, stated he does not want it moved, due to penalties from the RNC. Jim Bunch agreed. Washakie County Committeewoman, Dru Bower-Moore, and National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer, expressed that they are against an early caucus date. Goshen County Chairman, Doug Chamberlain, made a motion to table the discussion until and the summer meeting. Johnson County Committeeman. Bill Novotny made the second to table the motion until the summer meeting. The motion was tabled until a later date.A Committee with Doug Chamberlain, Greg Schaefer, Brian Scott Gamroth, Bernie DuMontier, David Horning, Kevin Voyles, Diana Vaughn, Dru Bower-Moore and Jan Larimer was formed to work on the issue.
That tells us a few things. First of all, the caucuses are apparently set for the second Tuesday in March, though, there is nothing on the Wyoming Republican Party site to document that other than the reference above. Secondly, that is a date on which the Alabama and Mississippi primaries are scheduled as well as the Hawaii Republican caucuses. Finally, and most importantly, there is some support on the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee to move the caucuses to an earlier date as in 2008. However, there is opposition to that idea on the committee including from the state's Republican National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer.

There is, then, some support for moving up in Wyoming, and the opposition is based on the RNC rules. In any event, the discussion was table and will be taken up at the committee's summer meeting. That meeting is set to take place in Caspar on August 26-27.

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Other notes: