A Very Rough Estimate of the Republican Delegate Math Ahead, Part One

One of the most frequent calls/requests FHQ receives from any and everybody is to provide a look forward and predict what will happen in any given upcoming contest or contests. And more often than not, I punt. Why? Much of what happens in presidential primary contests is seemingly predictable.

...in hindsight.

Well, often it is easy to say that the frontrunner coming into the election year ultimately won the nomination and move on. The reality, however, is that the "getting there" for the frontrunner can be much less easy to explain. The political science literature will lean on the amount of support various candidates have had entering the year of the election as quantified by FEC fundraising totals, poll position and more recently elite-level endorsements as a means of explaining the emergence of a frontrunner in a given nomination race. In recent cycles -- particularly 1996-2004¹ -- candidates were able to parlay success in fundraising, polls and endorsements during the invisible primary to early wins and put the nomination away fairly quickly.

Of course, one tie that binds those contests and not 2012 is the fact that the primary calendar is hugely different.² In the era cited, frontrunning candidates had the ability to turn early success in both the invisible primary and the first handful of contests into momentum that would pay dividends on Super Tuesday. Early wins begat a small delegate lead begat many wins on one day begat a big delegate lead.  Afterward, challenging candidates, while still mathematically able to catch up, tend to be overwhelmed by a combination of the frontrunner's momentum in the contest and a delegate margin that is big enough that given the rules in the remaining states makes a continued challenge near futile. [Look, I cite it all the time, but since we are seemingly headed down a road toward a delegate count, go and acquaint yourselves with Norrander's End Game article from the Journal of Politics (2000). Contained therein are the calculations/equations you'll likely be hearing a great deal about over the next few months.]

But as I said, 2012 is different. There weren't 25 contests awaiting the remaining candidates a week after the Florida primary in 2012 as was the case in 2008. No, it was just Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri and Maine with virtually no delegates directly at stake. Unless one candidate had come close to sweeping those contests and the ones preceding them, there really was not a viable knockout punch strategy for any of the candidates -- much less the race's nominal frontrunner, Mitt Romney.

So, when Neil King of the Wall Street Journal called this week to discuss how we might game this process out given the current dynamics, FHQ was typically hesitant. A presidential nomination race is a sequential process -- one step affects subsequent steps -- and attempting to parse out the possible scenarios can quickly become an exercise in futility. Yet, if we want to know if a knockout punch strategy is still possible, it might be helpful to actually examine a scenario or two to assess the odds of Romney extending his current delegate lead to a level that would be difficult for his opponents to overcome throughout the remainder of the calendar.

If you've read the Wall Street Journal today, you'll see some calculations attributed to FHQ. I thought that, in conjunction with Mr. King's piece, it might be helpful to show my work. Now, I cannot stress enough that what follows is not likely to happen. It is a thought exercise to help us all better understand the implications of not only wins for a candidate but how the candidates will potentially amass delegates moving forward in this race. I entered this process with a simple question/hypothesis: Can Mitt Romney deliver a series of wins on Super Tuesday that will end this contest on March 7? The answer there is pretty clear: No. Well, the answer is no based on the delegate count anyway. It is difficult to quantify the momentum coming off that sort of sweep. But even then, I think we can all agree that a Romney sweep -- John Avlon's North Korea-style election scenario -- of the Super Tuesday contests is unlikely.

The best test is to look at a couple of scenarios and compare them through Super Tuesday. King's WSJ piece alludes to these but let FHQ break them down.

Scenario #1: Super Tuesday South = South Carolina, Super Tuesday Northeast = New Hampshire

Again, these are hypotheticals. Obviously the dynamics of this race have changed since votes were cast in those early states. However, we do have information from those votes that may be useful if extrapolated onto other regionally similar contests. One but of information that is missing to this point in the race is that there has yet to be a midwestern primary. Michigan will be the first indication of what a vote in the midwest -- in a primary -- might look like. The Michigan numbers will -- or would for this analysis -- helpful for projecting Ohio. But alas...

Assumptions:
1) This only includes the primary states through Super Tuesday. Caucus states, due to their rules, were suppressed from the analysis.
2) Votes in the southern Super Tuesday states (GA, OK & TN) mimic the vote total in South Carolina, but with Santorum playing the Gingrich role (Santorum 40%, Romney 28%, Gingrich 17%). Delegates are then allocated according to the rules in each of those states. [South Carolina is a better reflection of the possible vote across the South than Florida because of the make up of the electorates in those two states relative to the rest of the South.]
3) Votes in the northeastern Super Tuesday states (MA & VT) mimic the vote total in New Hampshire, but with Paul and Romney splitting evenly the Huntsman votes from New Hampshire (Romney 48%, Paul 30%). Delegates are then allocated according to the rules in each of those states.
4) If there is a split in a state between the at-large (statewide) delegates and the congressional district delegates, the assumption is that the congressional district vote follows the statewide vote.

5) Romney wins Virginia and all 11 districts outright (+50%).

6) Michigan and Ohio are split roughly in half between a Romney and a non-Romney. In Michigan that means a split of the congressional districts and a split of the two at-large statewide delegates. In Ohio that means a split of the 16 congressional districts and a proportional allocation of the at-large delegates.
7) The threshold to win any at-large delegates in Ohio is 20%. The assumption is that only two candidates (Romney and non-Romney) clear that barrier.
8) Statewide votes translate to the congressional district as well. 

Delegate count (given those assumptions -- Click link to see full breakdown):

1) Romney would pick up an additional 192 contest/bound automatic delegates (distinct from automatic delegates who are not bound by primary results) in the primary states. That total would be 221 with Arizona
2) That would bring his binding delegate total to 265 or 294 with Arizona.
3) Santorum (or candidate in second place X) would pick up an additional 143 delegates or with Arizona 172 delegates.
4) That would bring Santorum's total to 146 or 175 with Arizona. 
5) Paul would pick up 19 delegates in the northeast (because of NH) bringing his total to 27.
6) Gingrich would pick up 8 delegates in Oklahoma for clearing the 15% threshold (because of SC), bringing his total to 37.
7) Post-Super Tuesday, then, it would be: 

• Romney 265 or 294
• Santorum 146 or 175
• Gingrich 37
• Paul 27

Notes:
1) The delegate margin would increase by about 90-150 delegates for Romney depending on Arizona.

2) That assumes, again, that one non-Romney consolidates that non-Romney vote. 

3) In this case, the assumption is that Santorum is that candidate.
4) Virginia helps Romney neutralize other losses across the South on Super Tuesday.
5) Arizona along with modest gains in the northeast and breaking even across Michigan and Ohio is what drives Romney's delegate margin up.

Scenario #2: Romney's Rosy Outlook

The intent of this scenario is to provide a kind of best-case scenario for Romney, albeit a limited one. FHQ will throw the other candidates a bone here and assume that Romney gets up to 49% of the vote across the board. That allows Romney to take a great many delegates, but not trigger the winner-take-all allocation of at-large delegates in the states where the allocation is conditioned on one candidate receiving a majority of the statewide vote. This is another way of saying that FHQ will allow for the proportional allocation of those at-large delegates.

Assumptions:
1) This only includes the primary states through Super Tuesday.
2) Romney wins 49% statewide and in the congressional districts. This is more likely in some states than in others, but recall that this is a baseline sort of scenario for comparison's sake only. 
3) Related to #2, it is probably out of reach for anyone to get to the 66% threshold in Tennessee, so I'll treat it like the rest: Romney gets 49% statewide and on the congressional district level.
4) This may be a shortcut and kind of undermine the "best case scenario" argument, but I'll assume that the remaining vote and delegate allocation centers around one candidate (Santorum) instead of it being split among Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.
5) Romney wins Virginia and all 11 districts outright (+50%).

Delegate count (given those assumptions -- Click link to see full breakdown):
1) Romney would pick up an additional 281 contest/bound automatic delegates (distinct from automatic delegates who are not bound by primary results) in the primary states.
2) That would bring his binding delegate total to 354.
3) Santorum (or candidate in second place X) would pick up an additional 110 delegates.
4) That would bring Santorum's total to 113 or Gingrich's to 139.

Notes:
1) The delegate margin would increase to about 215-230 delegates for Romney.
2) That assumes, again, that one non-Romney consolidates that non-Romney vote. 
3) Due to the nature of the rules, Romney would win all the delegates in Michigan, Arizona and Virginia.
4) Again, that likely places some pressure on the non-Romney candidates and makes their quest -- compared to Scenario #1 -- more a matter of keeping Romney from getting to 1144 rather than achieving that level of delegates themselves. This is a point that is receiving very little discussion. How that narrative exerts pressure on or has the RNC exert pressure on the other candidates will be an important factor to watch. We may see that manifest itself in the form of automatic delegate endorsements (or additional elected official endorsements).

In other words, the odds of a momentum contest are quickly dissipating as we look ahead to what the state of the race is likely to be post-Super Tuesday and giving way to a nomination race focused on the gradual accumulation of delegates. The above comparison gives the impression that under certain circumstances -- and there are a lot of assumptions there -- the delegate count will be close after Super Tuesday. However, it is important to note that those sort of analyses fail to capture the dynamics of the race at any given point (momentum, polling snapshots, etc.). It is easy, then, to count delegates without factoring in how primary/caucus results and those very same delegate counts impact the race.

Now, a number of folks have already looked at the delegate math ahead and have come to the conclusion that this race will go on for a while. FHQ agrees but urges caution in counting delegates too far in advance. There are any number of permutations that could occur and thus momentum to potentially develop from that. It could also be that it becomes easier to project as we gather more information from future contests.

FHQ will take a crack at one such permutation in Part 2 tomorrow; an extension of the baseline model above through the end of the calendar. As a baseline, it will give us some understanding of just how far the delegate race may extend.

--
¹ One could add to this McCain's clinching of the 2008 Republican nomination as well. There are some elements of this pattern in the Arizona senator's run to the nomination then.

² The other major difference in 2012 relative to the past is the volatility of support for the candidates in the polls. That isn't to be discounted.


Recent Posts:
A Follow Up on the Maine Republican Caucuses


2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: New York

April Primary Given the Heave Ho in Texas

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Post-Super Tuesday Impressions

Today I want to focus on strategy from here on.

For the Republicans things are a bit more clear. McCain has a good sized lead in the delegate counts and if you listen to the talking heads, can shore up his support among conservatives by pulling Mike Huckabee into the fold. At least that's what the talking heads keep saying. It makes sense. McCain can't do well with Southern conservatives; Huckabee has proven he can. End of story, right? It's always a game of wait and see with politics.

On the Democratic side there were a few things that popped out at me. First of all, and I talked about this ad nauseam last night during the live blog, Obama does well in caucuses. He swept all of them last night. Even when he lost Nevada to Clinton, he still managed one more delegate than she did. The other issue on the Democratic side is performance versus region. Clinton does better (on the whole) in traditional Democratic areas (West coast and Northeast) and Obama has done well in the South (especially the Deep South) and the heartland--red states. So when Obama says that he can do more than Clinton as nominee to pull in Republicans and Independents, there is some truth to it. Sure these wins in red states are among Democratic partisans, but he can still argue that he has won in red states. What can Clinton say? "I won in New York and California?" Well, the Democrat would win those states anyway.

Given these trends (this model if you will), how do the Democratic candidates stack up in the immediate next contests? This weekend there is a Democratic caucus in Washington and a primary in Louisiana.

Washington represents the confluence of both factors mentioned above, so it is more difficult to peg. First, it is a caucus. Advantage Obama...apparently. Secondly, it is a "traditional" Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 1988. Advantage Clinton. So Washington is tough.

Louisiana, on the other hand is a Deep South state. Say what you will about how Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana's African American population, this is still a Southern state and one that could break for Obama on Saturday (if we're keeping with the proposed model).

After that (on Tuesday February 12), there are primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Well, those are traditional Democratic, heavily African American and red state respectively. Clinton, Obama, Obama.

This is all speculation (and based on a simple model at that), and could change at the drop of a hat. Things have changed a time or two during this cycle. But it is a first pass at what to look for in the next week.

Super Tuesday Results (Live Blog)

Let's dispatch with the niceties and get right down to business. There are a lot of delegates at stake in today's contests and the fun starts right here in Georgia. Polls closed at 7pm.

7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.

7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.

7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:

"Georgia Closes: Here’s one thing we can tell you so far from the early exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. For Democrats, the most important issue facing the country is the economy, far out-pacing the war in Iraq and health care. Nine of 10 Democratic primary voters say the economy is either not so good or poor."

7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.

McCain 37%
Huckabee 32
Romney 27

7:43pm: Let's not forget that Bill Clinton used Georgia as his first, post-New Hampshire (Comeback Kid circa 1992) victory to catapult him into the driver's seat in the race for the nomination that year. The state also played a valuable role in his general election campaign in 1992. For the Clintons to lose the state says a lot. Mostly that the state Democratic party is much different today than it was in 1992. Zell Miller led the charge in Georgia for Clinton in 1992. That wing of the party as since moved on leaving a party much more female and much more African American than they were then (simple percentages of the party).

7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).

8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.

8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.

8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.

8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.

8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.

8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.

8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.

8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.

9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).

9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.

9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.

Huckabee 35%
McCain 32
Romney 29

9:18pm: ABC just projected Clinton the winner in New Jersey. So other than Deleware, Clinton is doing well in the Northeast. Connecticut is still up in the air.

9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.

9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.

9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.

9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.

9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:

"Money, Money, Money Here’s a hint about Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing in Mass. She way outspent Mr. Obama on television. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots by Mr. Obama, who spent $27,000. That spending in Massachusetts is from Jan. 2007 through Feb. 3, 2008."

9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.

10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.

10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.

10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.

10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.

10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.

10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.

10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.

10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.

10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?

10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.

10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.

10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.

10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.

10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.

11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.

11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.

11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.

11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.

11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.

11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.

11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.

11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.

The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).

Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats

Republicans

Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.

Huckabee Strikes First on Super Tuesday

Who else thought Georgia's polls were the first to close tonight? As far as polls go, I suppose that's right. But West Virginia's GOP convention today is the first to deliver any tangible Super Tuesday results. The state has 30 delegates total, 18 at-large delegates of which were at stake in today's convention (The remaining 12 will be decided on during the state's May primary.). After coming in second on the first vote (one where a majority was required to win any delegates), Huckabee managed the plurality necessary to wrap up all 18 delegates in the winner-take-all contest. Romney placed second which his campaign hopes is not a sign of things to come in other winner-take-all contests today. Second place and nothing to show for it won't get him very far.

UPDATE: Wagging a finger at Huckabee and McCain over a supposed back room deal in West Virginia won't get Romney very far either. This isn't the start Romney hoped for when the day's voting began.

Super Tuesday Voting: Georgia

Lines may be long in other parts of Georgia, but on Athens' east side things had slowed to a trickle by mid-afternoon. It was in and out for my wife and me since there was only one item on the ballot. The only thing that slowed things down any more than usual was having to show a picture ID, the by-product of an ever-controversial law requiring voters to show them before voting.

Elsewhere across Georgia, the morning was marked by long lines at polling stations. The long lines brought upwards of 200 complaints to the office of the Secretary of State.

In Atlanta, the Obama campaign has been investigating a phone scam that falsely offered some elderly voters the option to vote by phone. Despite that, Obama is seen as leading Clinton by a large margin in the state.

Super Tuesday

Some days you just don't need to over-complicate things with an inclusive title. Suffice it to say, today is a BIG day in the race for both parties' nominations. For a look back at Super Tuesdays past, have a look at CQ's take on the history.

Here's some of what's happening out there:
As I mentioned in a previous post, the year-end reports are in to the FEC. Here's a look at those numbers from The Washington Post (and a take from The Fix). The Democrats continue to hold a decided advantage in money raised (with Obama and Clinton both just north of $100 million raised for the year). So there are some interesting dynamics at play here. Countervailing forces, if you will. First of all, the leading indicators (presidential popularity, state of the economy, etc.) point toward this being a good election season for the Democrats. On top of that, there has been much more energy on the part of Democratic partisans to support and contribute to the Democratic pool of candidates than their counterparts on the GOP side have to Republican candidates. However, the way the race is shaping up, the GOP nomination could be decided well in advance of the Democratic choice. McCain looks to be in good shape to, if not wrap things up today, then to do quite well for himself while simultaneously putting his opponents at a large disadvantage. With things so evenly divided on the Democratic side, an even, or near even, split of states/delegates in today's contests could trigger a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. So while all the signs indicate a Democratic year, circumstances could boost the GOP's chances in November. For that to play out, the GOP nominee would have to unify the part behind him while the Democratic contenders continue to beat each other up, providing more general election fodder. Here's the take on the subject in a post from The Caucus yesterday.

Speaking of protracted battles, CBS News and The New York Times have polled the Democratic superdelegates again. Clinton continues to hold a 2-1 edge (204-99) over Obama in that count. However, there are still 493 superdelegates who either did not provide an answer or still consider themselves undecided. That's nearly 62% of the superdelegates. So while the argument could be made that Clinton is the establishment candidate because of the support she has among those superdelegates, there are a number who haven't decided yet and could break in the other direction. I need to check and see if comparable polls were done of superdelegates in previous cycles; just to see when a majority of them broke for one candidate or another. Again, Clinton has the edge, but there are enough left out there to swing superdelegate support to Obama.

I'm going to hold back on a full-scale analysis of the polls today and yield to the coverage by Real Clear Politics (A Freudian slip there. At first I typed in Real CleaN Politics. Wishful thinking?). Now, on Sunday I had a look at McCain's poll position in February 5 states with winner-take-all delegate allocation rules. Those links are still live so you can compare and contrast the changes in those polls since Sunday evening. You'll notice:
That Romney has pulled to within striking distance of McCain in California (A virtual tie despite the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger.).
The three way dead heat continues in Georgia.
A continued competitive, three way race in Missouri.
McCain's leads lengthened in the mid-Atlantic (NY & NJ).

On the Democratic side, Obama has continued to inch up closer to Clinton in national polls following his South Carolina win. If you look at th graphic on that link Obama leaped both after his win in Iowa and again after South Carolina. Are all or most of the people who supported other candidates choosing Obama? There is a reason those folks didn't back Clinton from the start.

Also on Real Clear Politics, there is an article laying out the various scenarios that could play out as the returns start to come in this evening.

For those of you who are lurkers on the site, feel free to stop by this evening and discuss the results as they come in. I'd like to get a nice discussion going and there shouldn't be any lack of things to talk about.

Finally, if you're really bored this evening and have access to Newsource 15 (UGA's TV news station out of the Grady School) be sure and look out for me on their Super Tuesday special this evening at 10pm. Here's the link to the live stream. The boredom reference is more a reflection of my appearance than an indictment of the show/station itself.

Romney in Maine, Super Tuesday Voting Machines and the Super Bowl

Mitt Romney managed to get back in the win column again Saturday with a victory in the Maine Republican caucuses. So once again, Romney has bested his competition in a caucus state. That means all but an Iowa victory is separating im from having swept the caucus states thus far (Wyoming, Nevada, and Maine). Now, this isn't to suggest that Romney will sweep the caucuses on Tuesday (There are six in all: Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota.), but it is an interesting footnote to the proceedings since January 3.

Maine results. (Well, partial ones from the Maine GOP.)

The other consideration for the GOP candidates heading into Super Tuesday this week is whether those states going have winner-take-all systems of delegate allocation. Which February 5 states fall into that category and how do the polls look for the top GOP candidates there? Looking at the map from the New York Times posted early last week, these are the states (There was some skepticism among the group during the live discussion group this week as to how accurate these were. They have been checked and verified at The GreenPapers.com.):

Arizona (53 Delegates)
McCain 41% Romney 25

California (not a true winner-take-all) (173 Delegates)
McCain 37% Romney 32

Connecticut (30 Delegates)
McCain 45% Romney 23

Delaware (18 Delegates)
No recent polls (But McCain did win there in 2000.).

Georgia (not a true winner-take-all) (72 Delegates)
McCain 31% Romney 29 Huckabee 25

Massachusetts (This contest's allocation is disputed. NYT and TGP have it as proportional, while Rhodes Cook--via Paul's Larry Sabato email the other day--has it as winner-take-all. This is Romney territory anyway.) (43 Delegates)
Romney 54% McCain 29

Missouri (58 Delegates)
McCain 35% Huckabee 28 Romney 26

New Jersey (52 Delegates)
McCain 49% Romney 26

New York (101 Delegates)
McCain 51% Romney 23

Oklahoma (not a true winner-take-all) (41 Delegates)
McCain 40 Huckabee 19 Romney 17

Utah (36 Delegates)
No link available (Like Massachusetts, Utah is considered Romney country.).
*All poll numbers are from Real Clear Politics averages of the most recent polls in the states. Delegate numbers are from The New York Times.

If we look at just these states, McCain looks to be in very good shape. He's behind in two (MA & UT), ahead but close in another three (CA, GA & MO) and comfortably ahead in the rest. That could net him 335 delegates; nearly a third of what is needed for the nomination. And that doesn't count what he's already secured and the delegates he could get from the other Super Tuesday states. Unlike on the Democratic side (which uses a proportional allocation), the GOP has some variation here. Romney could come in a respectable second in several of these states and have nothing to show for it. That puts him in a real bind as Tuesday approaches.

Meanwhile with Super Tuesday just around the bend, Common Cause has released a report concerning the states most likely to have voting machine issues this week. And yes, Georgia is on there as one of the six states most likely to have "mishaps" with their machines (Arkansas, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee are the rest.). In other words, there may be some side stories that make waves come Wednesday morning other than simply who won, who lost and how many delegates each candidates has.

Also, tonight is the Super Bowl. As I did with the State of the Union address this past week, I'll ask here whether the Pats-Giants game will distract from the campaign going on across all sectors of the country. The Orange Bowl on the night of the Iowa caucuses did nothing to dampen the spirits of caucus goers there, and this won't pull people's attention away for too long. Obama is up with "local" ads for the game.