The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)

Update for October 23.

The work week ends with debate season now in the rearview mirror and just 11 days until the voting phase of the 2020 presidential election concludes. And while Friday saw a slowing down of the pace of polling releases witnessed over the last three days, it was still a fairly busy day with 13 new surveys from 10 states representing all but the Strong Biden category. Despite the new data, the race ends the work week where it began with Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line and a sizable projected advantage in the electoral vote tally.

On to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

(Biden 46, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.97]

Susquehanna has fielded some of the most Trump-friendly polls in recent weeks and that was true of the firm's Arizona survey released today. Favorable (relative to other polling) to one candidate or not, this poll had both the president and Joe Biden losing support compared to the last Susquehanna poll there in September. But both polls have the race tied, so there was no net change in the race across those two surveys. And this latest one finds Trump in the core of his recent range of results in the Grand Canyon state while Biden lags toward the bottom end of his. 

Florida

(Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls | Trump 50, Biden 46 via Pulse Opinion Research)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.27]

It was a choose one's own narrative in a pair of Florida polls released today. Like the Susquehanna poll of Arizona, the St. Pete Polls survey showed the same two point margin as the pollster's survey a week and a half ago and was, in fact, unchanged in that time. Yet, the steady picture painted by that poll was not the same one as in the Pulse Opinion Research survey. It was the firm's first poll of the Sunshine state in 2020 and stands out from other recent polls there. Trump has never led a Florida survey this year by more than four points and has only hit or surpassed 50 percent in six of the 98 polls that have been conducted in Florida in calendar 2020. That obviously puts Trump at the ver top of his range in all of Florida polling as Biden ended up far closer to the low end of his. Of the two polls, the St. Pete poll is more consistent with the current FHQ averages which project a 49-45 (rounded) Biden edge. 

Iowa

(Trump 47, Biden 47)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.70]

An unusually busy polling week in Iowa ends with an update to the July RMG Research poll. While that summer survey had the president up one, it also found both candidates around 40 percent. However, both are consistent (in terms of their margins) with where the race for the Hawkeye state's six electoral votes currently is. Of the ten October polls, four have had the race tied and six of those ten have found Iowa within a point (or less). But Biden had the advantage in three of the remaining four polls that had a margin greater than one. That is why Iowa has moved in Biden's direction. 

Michigan

(Biden 48, Trump 39 via EPIC-MRA | Trump 49, Biden 45 via Zia Poll)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.00]
Back over in Michigan, the new Zia Poll matches Trump's largest lead in the Great Lakes state, matching a July Spry Strategies poll. But recall the Michigan discussion from yesterday with respect to the Trafalgar surveys there. This is just Trump's eighth lead in 114 polls conducted in Michigan in 2020. Compared to all the other polls, this one is an outlier. And like that St. Pete poll of Florida above the EPIC-MRA poll mirrors the one the firm put out last week. EPIC remains closer on the Biden number, but below where both candidates are in the FHQ averages (Biden 50-43 currently). 

Montana

(Trump 49, Biden 43)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.40]

For the second consecutive day, there is a new poll out Montana. Yes, the Treasure state arguably remains comfortably red, but the update to the Siena/NYT Upshot series, like the Strategies 360 poll a day ago, has the gap between the two major party candidates below ten percent. What's more, Siena for the second straight poll has found Trump under 50 percent, but doesn't really mark much of a change since September. Biden did bump up a point to come more in line with his FHQ average share of support there. Comfortably red or not, Montana has had an above average shift from the 20 point margin the president enjoyed there in 2016.

North Carolina

(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Meredith College | Biden 48, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.84]

The two polls of the Tar Heel state show exactly the same thing, but took different routes in getting to a 48-44 Biden advantage. The Meredith poll made the transition from a register to likely voter sample and ostensibly helped the former vice president in the process. Biden rose a couple of points and the president dropped one. But while the margin expanded in the Meredith series it contracted in the Data for Progress series of polls in North Carolina. Trump remained at 44 precent for the second time in October, but Biden slid back to around where he was in the firm's August poll of the state. Both candidates, it should be said, are operating in quite tight ranges in the DfP series. 

Oklahoma

(Trump 60, Biden 35) [August poll]

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.55]

Another day, another Sooner Poll from Oklahoma. This one is a bit outdated having been in the field there in August. But it like the other Sooner polls conducted this year has Trump hovering around 60 percent and Biden once again in the mid-30s. Its addition also does little to alter the margin in a state that is way off on the Republican end of the Spectrum below. Still, the margin in Oklahoma is much closer than it was just four years ago. That does not mean close, but there has been a shift toward the Democrats in that time. 

Pennsylvania

(Biden 51, Trump 44)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.40]

The trajectory of change in the Muhlenberg series of surveys of the Keystone state has gradually moved in Biden's direction over the course of the last eight plus months. A February tie was a 49-45 Biden advantage in August. And Biden rose again from the August to October polls as the president faded a little more. Overall, the shifts have brought the current Muhlenberg poll in line with FHQ average shares of support for the two major party candidates. As of now, the former vice president holds a 50-44 (rounded) lead here on a day that saw the margin in Pennsylvania tick up.

Utah

(Trump 50, Biden 38)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +14.26]

There are some interesting dynamics at play in the polling of Utah this cycle. RMG Research and Y2 Analytics have been the most active pollsters in the Beehive state this cycle, but both started out with widely divergent numbers in polling the state. In the RMG Research series, Trump has hovered around the 50 percent mark all year as Biden has risen from the low 30s to the upper 30s now. Y2, on the other hand has until its last poll had the president below 50 percent and Biden cresting to a point above 40 percent, a level Democrats have not met in the state in years. Over time, however, the two pollsters have converged with Trump at or slightly above 50 percent and Biden approaching, but falling short of 40 percent (a bit above where Obama was in the state in 2008).

West Virginia

(Trump 58, Biden 38)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +25.98]

Finally, something may be brewing in West Virginia (or it could be that one pollster's work among a general lack of polling in that state in 2020 is somewhat deceptive). But Triton Polling and Research in its second consecutive poll has found Trump under 60 percent in the Mountain state. That is actually the third poll in a row -- including both Triton surveys -- to show that. If those latest three surveys are in any way indicative of the state of the race in West Virginia, then that would translate to Trump losing around ten points from 2016 to polling now. And that would also mean Biden moving nearly 12 points beyond where Clinton end up four years ago. That would make for a massive shift. Even if the polls are understating the president's support and it is accurate on the increased Biden support, then that Democratic side of swing equation alone would be an above average overall swing compared to the (averaged) nationwide shift in 2020 polling from election day 2016. But as it stands, including earlier, albeit discounted, polls the margin is still around Trump +26.

NOTE: 

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	AL-9 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	NE CD1-1 MT-3 (103)	SD-3 (32)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	OH-18 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	IA-6 (169)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Today was another day in which the map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago. But the Electoral College Spectrum saw one small change way off on the Republican end. The new, "tight" survey in West Virginia lowered the average margin in the Mountain state enough to push it one spot toward the partisan line and past North Dakota. No, that change makes no real difference in the grand scheme of things, but it is a slight change nonetheless. 

Overall, this was a mostly good polling day for Biden. The average margins in six of the ten states with newly added polls moved in his direction. But two states in the Biden column and close to the partisan line -- Arizona and Florida -- shifted slightly away from the former vice president. But in reality, it was a mostly status quo maintaining day. 

11 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 23 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

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The Electoral College Map (10/22/20)

Update for October 22.

Changes (October 22)
State	Before	After
Georgia	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

Thursday was another one of those days. First, it is the day of the final presidential debate of the 2020 cycle, a little less than two weeks out from election day. But it was also another day with a massive batch of new polling data. And it was shaping up that way before the clock struck midnight to close Wednesday. FHQ added nine surveys to the dataset after yesterday's update posted but before the end of the day and then tacked on another 28 throughout the day on Thursday. 

Overall, it was a mixed bag in those 37 new polls across 17 states. The FHQ margin in eight of those states moved in the president's direction while Biden gained ground in the remaining nine. Curiously, the former vice president made most of his gains in red states. Of the seven red states represented in the surveys added today, only Ohio moved a hair in Trump's favor (while continuing to be on the Watch List). The rest, led by Georgia, shifted toward the Democratic nominee. And the Peach state, on the weight of a couple of new polls once again jumped the partisan line back onto Biden turf. 

With the former vice president chipping away at margins in red states, Trump was doing the same in blue states. Of the ten blues states with surveys added today, seven of them saw their margins shrink, benefitting the president. But Biden increased his leads in Colorado, Florida and Wisconsin. Again, it was a mixed bag, but the small shifts in each of these states were likely most significant in Arizona, where the margin in on the verge of slipping under Biden +3, and in Ohio where a couple of new surveys nudged the Buckeye a bit further away from the partisan line. 

Anyway, on to the polls... 

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

(Biden 50, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.02]

It was not the update to the Ipsos series of surveys that triggered that downward movement in the margin in the Grand Canyon state. Instead, it was the Morning Consult survey (Trump +1, see below) showing the president in a rare lead in Arizona that drew the margin there closer. That Ipsos poll actually had Biden stretching his advantage, doubling it since last week and hitting 50 percent in the process. The poll also represented the widest margin in the series thus far. But again, that Morning Consult survey served as an overall drag on any gains there. 

California

(Biden 58, Trump 32)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.07]

While the margin ticked down some in California, it is hardly something that is going to change the trajectory of the race for the largest electoral vote prize on the board. The new PPIC survey found Biden both under 60 percent and with a lead less than 30 points. The former is rare in 2020 but the former vice president has only led by 30 or more in a third of the California surveys conducted this year. But since the last PPIC survey last month, the margin has contracted some with Biden slipping under 60 percent and Trump inching up a point. In the grand scheme of things that really is not that big a change, and this poll well within the normal range of Golden state surveys. 

Florida

(Biden 51, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.40]

If the Morning Consult survey in Arizona was a drag on the overall margin there, then the firm's Florida survey along with the new Ipsos update moved the needle in Biden's direction today. Both had the former vice president up by more than five points, and both also had the Democratic nominee up a point compared to the previous polls in both series and the president down a point. The effect was a widening of the margin in the Sunshine state, a move that has pushed Biden closer to an average share in the 50 percent range (albeit still short of that mark). And the last five surveys there have now found the former vice president at or above 50 percent. Florida is a must have in any likely Trump path to 270, and Biden closing in on the majority mark there is an ominous sign. 

Georgia

(Biden 51, Trump 44)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.15]

Another state that had both a Morning Consult poll and an additional survey from a different pollster was Georgia. And it is probably the tie in the Morning Consult survey that is closer to the mark in the Peach state. The latest from Garin-Hart-Yang is at the top end of the range of Biden-friendly surveys, matching the seven point spread in the recent Quinnipiac survey of the state. Both of those polls also had Biden north of 50 percent, a rarity in Georgia, but not something that does not and has not happened in polling there this year. And it is new in the G-H-Y series. Biden's advantage in the Democratic pollster's July poll of Georgia also had Biden out to a lead (47-43) which was the extreme Biden end of the spectrum of poll results there at the time. The new poll, however, is not alone on that end this time. 

Kansas

(Trump 48, Biden 41)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.94]

After a couple of new surveys came out of the Sunflower state a day ago, Siena/NYT Upshot added another new one in Kansas today. And while the pair yesterday both found the president up double digits there, the Siena survey was more in line with the established Kansas margin here at FHQ. However, it also found both candidates lagging behind their average shares in the state by two to three points. That remains something of an issue with these Siena polls as election day approaches. They all tend to have higher than normal shares of undecideds and support for minor party candidates than many other polls. That is true here as well. This is just the third time in a Kansas poll this year that Trump has been below 50 percent there. Things are closer in the Sunflower state in 2020 than in 2016, but the president has maintained a share above 50 percent the whole time. 

Michigan

(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 40 via Fox News | Trump 47, Biden 45 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Data for Progress)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.11]
One of these new polls out in Michigan does not look like the other. And, as is often the case, it is the Trafalgar survey that stands out. Of the 112 surveys that have now been conducted in the Great Lakes state in calendar 2020, Trump has led in just seven of them. Four of those seven were surveys fielded by Trafalgar and the latest matches the president's largest lead in a Michigan poll all year. The other polls saw Biden expand his advantages since the last polls in the series with the exception of the Data for Progress survey where Trump rose a point from September. But all three are in range of recent polling in the state even if the Fox survey is at the very bottom of Trump's range in recent surveys.

Minnesota

(Biden 48, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The latest update from Survey USA in Minnesota was probably more notable for how close the Senate race was than for the presidential race. This was a good sample for Republicans. Biden remained in the upper 40s but the president managed to push off the 40 percent mark where he had been in the previous two Survey USA polls of the Land of 10,000 Lakes. But this was the second straight from the firm in the state that saw the margin dip a little. For a state that was originally cited as a potential flip possibility by the president's reelection campaign, however, Minnesota remains a Lean Biden state and a Biden +6 is a pretty good survey for the president. 

Montana

(Trump 51, Biden 43)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.56]

The first Strategies 360 poll in Montana this cycle is really quite close to the shares of support (and margin for that matter) both candidates have established in polling in the Treasure state thus far this year. At 52-43 (rounded), the president holds an edge, but one that like most red states is closer than it was in 2016. Trump is still around four points behind his 2016 pace while Biden has improved in polls on Clinton's showing on election day by more than eight points. It is an above average swing that this survey affirms. 

North Carolina

(Trump 49, Biden 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.78]
There is not a whole lot one can say about this latest Pulse Opinion Research survey of North Carolina. Trump leads in the Tar Heel state have become more sporadic of late, and as this one does show a narrow advantage for the president, it represents no change from the firm's September poll in the state. In fact, all three surveys Pulse has conduced in North Carolina have had the president up by a point. It would be one thing if things were moving toward Trump in the series but absent any movement, this is yet more evidence of just how steady the race is in the state. 

Ohio

(Trump 48, Biden 45)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67]

That Pulse Opinion Research poll in North Carolina may not have shown any movement in the president's direction, but one piece of good news for Trump in the batch of polling released today was the swing from the last Fox News survey of the Buckeye state to its update there. Trump rose three points since the late September Fox poll of Ohio, but Biden dropped off by five points in the same span. As bad as the Fox Michigan poll was for the president, this Ohio survey represents the other end of the spectrum. And it is more consistent with the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Trump maintains in the FHQ averages in the state. 

Oklahoma

(Trump 59, Biden 37)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.51]

Trump is going to win Oklahoma going away next month, but it continues to be a warning sign every time a new survey is released with the president under 60 percent there. That is the case in the new Sooner Poll. The president continues to run more than five points off his 2016 performance in 2020 Oklahoma polls with an average share that is just under 60 percent. Biden, meanwhile, is more than six points ahead of Clinton's pace there. It will not amount too much. Trump will still take the Sooner state's seven electoral votes, but the state remains a cautionary tale about how much things have swung toward the Democrats in 2020.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 51, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Civiqs)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]

This is just the second survey PPP has conducted in Pennsylvania in all of 2020 and it is not markedly different from the 51-44 lead that the former vice president held there in April. The gap has closed some but not much and Biden is stationary above 50 percent. Civiqs has been more active in the state, but only now dumped a six survey series that has run from February to now. The latest numbers are posted above with a link to all six polls, but for the purposes of keeping this brief, FHQ will focus on the change from the last poll in June to now. Contrary to the PPP series, it was the president who was stationary at 46 percent from that June poll to now as Biden added three points and pushed above 50 percent. Like a number of other blue states of the medium shade, the polls with Biden over 50 percent are starting to pile up. 

 

Virginia

(Biden 52, Trump 41)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.82]

Like the Montana poll above, the new WaPo/George Mason survey of Virginia is also the first poll the firm has fielded in the state this cycle. It is also in line with the average shares both candidates have maintained in the Old Dominion through much of the year. Currently at FHQ, Biden has a 53-41 (rounded) lead in the commonwealth. And while that is a considerably wider margin than one might expect for a state that was a battleground for many of the 21st century presidential cycles, it has had a below average shift in the 2020 polls compared to the results in 2016. Biden is just two points out in from of Clinton's showing and Trump lags around his average amount -- roughly three points -- behind his performance there four years ago. Together, even that makes Virginia a surprising Strong Biden state,

Wisconsin

(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Fox News | Biden 50, Trump 44 via RMG Research)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.19]

The new RMG Research survey of Wisconsin is its first in the Badger state in 2020 and falls in line with the established averages in the state. The race currently stands at 49-43 (rounded) with Biden ahead. So it was not that poll that shifted the average margin in Wisconsin up on the day. It was not the Fox News poll either, where the former vice president saw his 50-42 lead from the early September Fox poll cut in half in that time. As was the case with Arizona at the outset, it was the Morning Consult poll (Biden +12, see below) that did the heavy lifting, nudging the Democratic nominee's share of support closer to 50 percent. But for all the back and forth among just these three polls, Wisconsin remains in that Biden +6 range as it has for quite a while now. 

Morning Consult (second October extended battleground wave)

South Carolina: 

Trump 51, Biden 45 (Biden +3, Trump -3 since early October wave) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.71]

Ohio: 

Trump 49, Biden 47 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Arizona: 

Trump 48, Biden 47 (Biden -2, Trump +2)

Georgia: 

Biden 48, Trump 48 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Texas: 

Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden +1, Trump -2) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.51]

North Carolina: 

Biden 50, Trump 47 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)

Florida: 

Biden 52, Trump 45 (Biden +1, Trump -1)

Michigan: 

Biden 52, Trump 44 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0)

Pennsylvania: 

Biden 52, Trump 43 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)

Minnesota: 

Biden 51, Trump 42 (Biden +1, Trump -2)

Wisconsin: 

Biden 54, Trump 42 (Biden +3, Trump -2)

Colorado: 

Biden 55, Trump 39 (Biden +1, Trump -1) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.87]

FHQ will be brief with this latest wave of Morning Consult polls from an extended group of battleground states (Senate and/or presidential). The big thing is that ten of the 12 states moved in Biden's direction in the last week. Even with Arizona standing out as one that moved toward Trump, the Grand Canyon state continues to be in the Biden column. But looking at this group in sequence from the most Trump to the most Biden (as it is aligned above), the order is off from that depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Arizona and Wisconsin are probably the most of sequence and on opposite ends of this truncated rank ordering from Morning Consult. That said, that Biden is at or above 50 percent in seven of these states -- states that would put him well above 270 electoral votes even without Arizona -- is the most notable aspect of this updated wave. 

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC -9 (112)	AL-9 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	NE CD1-1 MT-3 (103)	SD-3 (32)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	OH-18 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	IA-6 (169)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Obviously the Georgia change to Toss Up Biden looms large over things in today's update, but it change on the map and the Watch List did not translate into a move on the Spectrum. Yes, the Peach state hopped the partisan line and turned blue, but that is probably best described as the partisan line jumping Georgia. The Peach state changed colors but not positions in the order. Other than that, among the only other changes across the graphics today was California trading spots with New York on the Spectrum, moving a cell closer to the partisan line. And Kansas, a day after rejoining the Watch List came right back off it again, but only just barely. 

It is a pretty steady race. 12 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 22 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/19/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/14/20)

Update for October 14.

Changes (October 14)
State	Before	After
Georgia	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

As the calendar flipped under three weeks until election day on November 3, Wednesday was met with a host of new state-level polling. Including some leftovers from late Tuesday, there were 21 new surveys from 13 states from across the spectrum. All six categories here at FHQ were represented. And for once a tsunami of new polling data actually triggered some changes. Georgia jumped the partisan line in order and for the second time this month became a Toss Up Biden state by the slimmest of margins. 

But as has been the case with these partisan line-jumping changes in Georgia and Ohio especially is that the moves, although consequential, are less important than the fact that both states continue to be the closest two states on the board here at FHQ. And that should likely be the take home message from this latest shift: the Peach state is close rather than Georgia is now blue. The simple fact remains that Georgia is still closer to switching back to Toss Up Trump than Ohio is to join Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line. Obviously that could change as new polling data is revealed, but for now, both states are close. 

And not to beat a dead horse here, but if the conversation on November 3 is that Georgia and Ohio are still the most competitive states, then the former vice president is probably in good enough shape in states to the Biden side of Georgia and Ohio to be well above the 270 electoral vote mark. The order may end up being wrong where it counts in that middle column of the Spectrum in the end -- these things happen -- but it has been awfully consistent over time in this race. 

Anyway to the (flood of) polls...

Polling Quick Hits:

Florida

(Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.32]
The pair of Sunshine state polls yesterday painted a similar picture, but the two from today are less consistent. And while one could raise the fact that the St. Pete Poll is more consistent with both the polls from a day ago and the average shares of support for both candidates, the truth of the matter is that both surveys are consistent with their preceding September polls. The leading candidate dropped a point in both and that is it. The polls may differ, but that neither has changed all that much over a month is the prevailing datapoint here. 

Georgia

(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Survey USA | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.03] 

Georgia was another state with a couple of polls out today. One of them -- the Survey USA poll -- is more in line with the 47-47 (rounded) tie in the FHQ averages in the Peach state. The other from Quinnipiac shows some signs of being an outlier. Now, if one puts any stock in the notion that President Trump's debate performance and Covid diagnosis were injurious to his reelection chances and further that that would be reflected in this polls, then perhaps this Quinnipiac survey is less an outlier. The survey the university pollster conducted in the state immediately prior to the debate also had Biden ahead, but his advantage was 50-47. Biden's support has not really changed much since then, but Trump's definitely trailed off over the same period. Of course, being consistent with that narrative is one thing. Actually fitting in with other data is another. And clearly this one is off target among other recent Georgia polls. And to expand the scope a bit, put it this way: If Ohio and Georgia are truly as close in the order as they are in the Spectrum below, then there is little chance that while Ohio is Biden +1 that Georgia is simultaneously Biden +7. This one is an outlier unless further information comes along to confirm it in the days ahead. 

Indiana

(Trump 49, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.99]
This is the first Survey USA poll of the Hoosier state in calendar 2020 and it generally shows a race that is closer than many surveys there have. Polling has been limited in Indiana but this is just the second survey to find Trump under 50 percent in the state. The Biden number is in range of his FHQ average share of support, but it is that below average Trump share that is driving the margin down in this poll. This is not 2008 and Indiana is not a toss up or even a lean for that matter. 

Iowa

(Trump 50, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.28]
FHQ is not going to spend much time on these midwest surveys from David Binder Research. The sample across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin was just 600 likely voters evenly split into state-level subsamples of 200. That not only leads to super high margins of error, but also means that this trio of polls has the potential to significantly diverge from the established state of the race in any of the three. That is probably most clear in Iowa. The president consistently leads there, but more narrowly than six points in most recent polls (other than Survey Monkey). Trump is toaward the upper end of his range while Biden is at the low end of his in this one. 

Louisiana

(Trump 54, Biden 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +16.74]
Trafalgar Group was not only in the field in Florida recently but in the Pelican state as well. And in Louisiana, Trump's support has held steady since the last poll from the firm in August. Biden meanwhile has dropped a couple of points in the same time span. This survey has both candidates lagging behind their average shares of support, but is within range of the overall average margin in Louisiana. And the end result is that Louisiana holds its ground where it was in the order. 

Michigan

(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 39 via EPIC-MRA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]

That same picture of consistency carries over into Michigan where the pair of polls from Ipsos and EPIC-MRA do not differ much from the previous polls in either series. Like the two surveys out of Florida today, the difference relative to the immediately prior polls is a point here and there. Nevermind that the margins in both surveys are in line with the overall average in the Great Lakes state. Wash, rinse, repeat. The story is the same in Michigan as well. 

Minnesota

(Biden 52, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.42]
Again, take these small sample David Binder Research surveys with a grain of salt. There are polls that have Biden up double digits in Minnesota but they are few compared to the bulk of surveys that find the race in the upper single digits. This update does show a tighter race than the Binder survey did in July when Biden was up 18. Trump gained more than Biden lost from a poll that came in during the tail end of the former vice president's early summer polling surge. But the Democratic nominee continues to maintain a comfortable lead in a state viewed as a flip opportunity in the Trump campaign. 

Montana

(Trump 51, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.60]
It has been a while since MSU Bozeman was last in the field in the Treasure state with a survey. And although Trump's lead has stretched from five to seven points, the real change is in the share of support for third party candidates and those respondents who were undecided back in April. The two major party candidates control 95 percent of the support now, but only 85 percent then. More minds have been made up in the last six months and the president still holds a large enough lead, but one that is far below the 21 point edge the president had on election day in 2016.

New Hampshire

(Biden 55, Trump 43 via UNH | Biden 51, Trump 41 via Suffolk)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.69]
Polling has been sporadic in the Granite state in 2020 compared to past cycles, but it has picked up in recent days and begun to more consistently find Biden ahead by double digits. That is true in both the releases today. In the last few weeks the former vice president has added a couple of points to his share of support in the UNH series of polls as Trump lost a point on his. That previous poll was in the field just before the first presidential debate, and that may have been something of a catalyst to the change, but it could just as easily be statistical noise. Regardless both of today's surveys have Biden above 50 percent in New Hampshire and his average share is approaching 53 percent. If Trump is going to flip what was a state he narrowly lost in 2016, then something is going to have to change and quickly. 

North Carolina

(Biden 46, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Ipsos |

Biden 50, Trump 45 via Survey USA | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Susquehanna Polling and Research |

Biden 47, Trump 45 via RMG Research)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.74]

FHQ could probably do a separate post on all of the polls released from North Carolina over the last two days. But they all tell a similar story. With the exception of the Ipsos survey, Biden leads and by more than the current FHQ margin in the Tar Heel state. And pollsters that have conducted surveys in North Carolina during this cycle -- Upshot and Survey USA -- Biden's edge has increased since the last poll. [Ipsos had the race tied in September and still does now.] That has pushed what had been a consistent 47-46 (rounded) average advantage for the Democratic nominee to a 48-46 (round) lead. That change is small, but significant in a state that the president absolutely needs in order to get to 270. 

Ohio

(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.49]
The Georgia poll from Quinnipiac may have been an outlier, but the Ohio survey is more on target compared to other recent polls in the Buckeye state. Biden has held leads there, but again, they have tended to be small and the president still has the slight advantage overall. But while it could be argued that polling in, say, North Carolina indicates a change in the direction of the race there (toward Biden), the same is not the case in Ohio (like a number of states above). Through the Quinnipiac lens, the race has not changed at all since a September survey before the first debate. This one is well within normal polling variation.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 49, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.50]
The thing about polls of Pennsylvania at this point is that most of them fall into a range of five to six points with a few that pop up outside of that. Obviously, that does little to change the commonwealth's position in the order on the Spectrum below and the new RMG Research survey follows suit. Again, it is the consistency that is the story, one that makes Trump's prospects dim but certainly not extinguished in the Keystone state. Again, however, time is running out to reverse course there and elsewhere. 

Wisconsin

(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]
That sentiment is true in Wisconsin as well. And yes, this latest David Binder Research poll does nothing to change the president's fortunes in the Badger state, but it is a survey with a limited number of respondents. Despite that, double digit Biden leads in polls have not been uncommon in Wisconsin of late and the margin there has begun to tick upward. But this survey is consistent on the Trump number relative to the average share at FHQ and Biden's support runs a bit ahead of his. 

[Note that Survey Monkey released another round of polling in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. But as that wave was in the field from mid-September through mid-October, it overlaps with the previous round. Interviews from September 15-30 would essentially be double counted, and FHQ has opted as a result to withhold those polls until the full and separate October wave is complete.]

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 VT-3 (6)2	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	SC-9 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (116)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	AK-3 (116)	AL-9 (41)
CA-55 (82)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	KS-6 (103)	SD-3 (32)
NY-29 (111)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	NE CD1-1 MT-3 (97)	ID-4 (29)
HI-4 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 | 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	OH-18 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	IA-6 (169)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There was a flood of polling data released today on the state-level and while one can point to some examples of Biden stretching out his advantage over the president, there was just as much if not more to suggest that the race has barely changed if at all. One place where things did change -- and on the weight of a likely outlier poll -- was Georgia. The Peach state jumped the partisan line and rejoined the former vice president's coalition of states. But that margin -- Biden +0.03 -- suggests that it may not be there to stay. Again, the take home message is that Georgia remains close, and that is not what the president's campaign wants at this point in time. That is all one needs to know about why the president will be there on Friday. Georgia, however, retains its cell (just not its shade) on the Spectrum and switches potential changes on the Watch List below. Other than that, though, everything else is as it was a day ago. 

20 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 14 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (10/13/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/12/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/11/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.