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Monday, October 17, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
New State Polls (10/17/16)
Alaska	Lake Research	8/9-8/14	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	30	38	19	+8	--
Alaska	Lake Research	10/11-10/13	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	36	37	17	+1	*+7.20*
Arizona	HighGround	10/14	+/- 4.88%	400 likely voters	39	37	10	+2	*+1.43*
Colorado	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.7%	685 likely voters	45	37	5	+8	*+4.12*
Florida	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.8%	660 likely voters	48	44	4	+4	*+2.31*
Louisiana	JMC Analytics	7/21-7/22	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	34	49	11	+15	--
Louisiana	JMC Analytics	10/11-10/15	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	38	45	11	+7	*+12.61*
Nevada	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	698 likely voters	46	44	0	+2	*+1.03*
North Carolina	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	788 likely voters	48	47	0	+1	*+1.44*
Ohio	ORC/CNN	10/10-10/15	+/- 3.5%	774 likely voters	44	48	0	+4	--
Ohio	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.9%	624 likely voters	45	45	2	+/-0	*+0.81*
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/16	+/- 3.8%	660 likely voters	47	41	4	+6	*+5.44*
Utah	Rasmussen	10/14-10/16	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	28	30	4	+2	*+10.71¹*
¹Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.76 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah from the Strong Trump category to the Lean Trump category.

Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week brought eleven new polls from ten mostly blue toss up states. But there were a handful of narrowing red state surveys in addition to a couple of older releases in Alaska and Louisiana.

Alaska:
Like Utah, the majority of polling in Alaska in 2016 has found both candidates below 40 percent. And like Utah, recent surveys in the Last Frontier have shown a race for the state's three electoral votes that is tightening up some. In recent polls Clinton is closing in on Obama's share of support in 2012 while Trump continues to lag well behind Romney's pace there four years ago. But the New York businessman continues to lead.

Arizona:
Arizona is showing signs of becoming more like Nevada and North Carolina. Like those two Clinton toss ups, Arizona has seen a shift in the trajectory of the race since the first presidential debate at the end of September. Other than one of the head-to-head online panels, Clinton has not trailed in any polls in the Grand Canyon state since that point in the race. And it it slowly tracking toward the partisan line in the process.

Colorado:
The first debate was a turning point of sorts in Colorado as well. There has been some volatility in the Centennial state polling with a newly established post-(first)debate range of tied to Clinton +11. There have been a couple of polls on the upper end of the range, but just more than half of the eight polls released in the state since then have been more than five points in Clinton's direction -- including this new Quinnipiac poll. That has been enough to push Colorado closer to the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side.

Florida:
While Clinton is around two and a quarter points ahead in the FHQ averages in Florida, the real story there continues to be how the polls have favored the former Secretary of State in the Sunshine state. Her streak there continues with the latest Quinnipiac survey. Unless and until that changes, this one has stabilized to a degree.

Louisiana:
Although there has been some narrowing across the series of JMC Analytics polls in the Pelican state, it is comfortably red. The latest is the closest a poll has been in Louisiana since just after the conventions.

Nevada:
See Florida. The story is the same in Nevada. Clinton's run in the Silver state continues following the first debate.

North Carolina:
That is true in North Carolina as well.

Ohio:
Of all the blue toss ups only Ohio has followed a trendline different from the rest. Clinton has run off streaks of polling leads in the other four states, but the surveys released since the first debate in the Buckeye state have continue to offer mixed results, but only slightly so. The others have had in some cases some blips on the radar but no more than one. Ohio, on the other hand, has seen Clinton pull ahead in the majority of polls since the first debate, but Trump has not been without some measure of success since then. And it has been more than one drop in a bucket of Clinton leads. Meanwhile, Ohio is now the closest state in the FHQ averages but four points and four slots on the Spectrum away from the tipping point.

Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state is the picture of stability. Not only have the margins in the majority of polls in the time since the first debate been in the Lean Clinton area, but the change since the September Quinnipiac poll have been minimal. Trump held steady just above the 40 percent mark and Clinton has added a couple of points, nudging her into the upper 40s. That is where Pennsylvania is: Clinton in the mid-40s and Trump around 40. That is a lot of ground to make up in three weeks in a must have state for Trump.

Utah:
The tale in Utah is what one does not see above: Evan McMullin seemingly making the race for the Beehive state's six electoral votes a three-way race. The byproduct of Trump and McMullin splitting the usual Republican share of support in the state is that Clinton is in range with around what Obama pulled on average in the state across both 2008 and 2012.

--
The map remained steady, but the Watch List gained Colorado (within a point of shifting into the Lean Clinton category) and lost Nevada. Despite all the new data, only Alaska shifted on the Electoral College Spectrum, switching places with South Carolina. The remainder of the states held their positions in the order. That is particularly relevant in the eight toss up states where the order has solidified for the most part.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum¹
MD-10² (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	AK-3 (154)	SD-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-9⁴ (272 \| 275)	SC-9 (151)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 \| 266)	TX-38 (142)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 \| 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-2³ (190)	NV-6 (322 \| 222)	MS-6 (93)	NE-5³ (33)
NY-29+1³ (116)	MN-10 (200)	OH-18 (340 \| *216*)	UT-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	WI-10 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+1³ (181)	MT-3 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10 (164)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
¹ Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. ² The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. ³ Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. ⁴ Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

State	Switch
The Watch List¹
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
¹ Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Monday, September 26, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)

State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
New State Polls (9/26/16)
Arizona	Data Orbital	9/20-9/22	+/- 4.12%	550 registered voters	38	40	14	+2	*+1.95*
Colorado	Gravis	9/22-9/23	+/- 3.5%	799 registered voters	37	41	10	+4	--
Colorado	CNN	9/20-9/25	+/- 3.5%	784 likely voters	41	42	0	+1	*+3.14*
Florida	Cherry/Florida Chamber	9/16-9/20	+/- 4.0%	617 likely voters	43	41	6	+2	*+1.96*
Iowa	Loras	9/20-9/22	+/- 4.4%	491 likely voters	38	38	14	+/-0	*+0.93*
Louisiana	JMC Analytics	9/22-9/24	+/- 3.3%	905 likely voters	35	45	13	+10	*+13.84*
Massachusetts	YouGov/UMass	9/15-9/20	+/- 4.3%	700 likely voters	47	31	5	+16	*+20.77*
Minnesota	Survey USA	9/16-9/20	+/- 4.0%	625 likely voters	46	39	6	+7	*+8.01*
New Hampshire	ARG	9/20-9/25	+/- 4.2%	522 registered voters	46	42	5	+4	*+5.40*
New York	Marist/NBC	9/21-9/23	+/- 3.8%	676 likely voters	52	31	3	+22	*+20.15*
North Carolina	High Point	9/17-9/22	+/- 4.9%	404 likely voters	43	42	6	+1	--
North Carolina	Gravis	9/23	+/- 3.7%	694 likely voters	44	43	5	+1	*+1.05*
Ohio	TargetSmart	9/15-9/22	--	652 registered voters	40	37	2	+3	--
Ohio	Gravis	9/22-9/23	+/- 3.4%	850 registered voters	42	43	8	+1	*+0.80*
Pennsylvania	Harper	9/21-9/22	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	45	43	4	+2	--
Pennsylvania	CNN	9/20-9/25	+/- 3.5%	771 likely voters	45	44	0	+1	*+5.27*
Virginia	Christopher Newport	9/15-9/23	+/- 3.9%	1003 likely voters	39	33	2	+6	*+6.21*

Polling Quick Hits:
Quite a few firms were seemingly attempting to get some last minute, pre-debate surveys in the can to set the before of the first debate before and after. There were 17 new polls in 13 states to be released on the day debate season is set to kickoff at Hofstra.

On to the truly quick hits...

Arizona:
Arizona really has not budged all that much in September. There are exceptions, but Trump has consistently been around 40 percent and Clinton in the upper 30s. That that type of margin keeps popping up says there is something to it, but also that Trump modest lead is real though not expanding.

Colorado:
Another day, another couple of close polls in Colorado. The Gravis and CNN polls were not only close, but had Trump ahead. Still, this is one where both candidates are stuck around 40 percent. If the third party numbers hold up in the Centennial state, things might stay close and something in the low 40s might take the state. For now, though, the margin is quickly narrowing.

Florida:
The Sunshine state has been a ray of light for Clinton over the last week or so. Yes, the polling has been back and forth, but the former Secretary has not fallen behind for a series of polls in Florida as she has in other states -- Iowa, Nevada and perhaps Ohio -- that have closed more quickly of late (or pushed over the partisan line into Trump territory). It should be said, however, that the margin in Florida here at FHQ has dipped below two points for the first time in a while, but just barely.

Iowa:
Loras has not had a good track record in Iowa during the 2016 cycle. The firm's last poll in the Hawkeye state from June had Clinton up double digits during a period in which narrow leads were the order of the day. Now, the latest update has Trump down in the 30s for the first time in any poll since just after the conventions in the midst of a series of polls that have had him squarely in the mid-40s. The Clinton number looks consistent, but this one is likely another outlier.

Louisiana:
JMC Analytics was back in the field in the Pelican state and found a tighter margin since its July poll. Regardless, this is a red state with no real sign of moderating. Trump may be lagging Romney's pace in the Louisiana but remains comfortably ahead.

Massachusetts:
The same thing could be said in Massachusetts for Clinton. Dipping into the 40s in the Bay state is eye-popping on some level for a Democratic candidate. Of course, that stings less when that candidate is still comfortably up.

Minnesota:
At this point Minnesota is no closer for Republicans than it was in 2012. The current eight point margin here at FHQ mirrors the margin on Election Day four years ago. The difference is that there continues to be a pretty healthy level of undecideds in the Land of 10,000 Lakes that could change that in next six weeks. But the evidence thus far is that this is yet another Lean Clinton state where Trump is finding it difficult to get to 40 percent while Clinton is camped out in the mid-40s.

New York:
Nope, New York still isn't a swing state.

North Carolina:
Two new polls in North Carolina both found Clinton up one in the Tar Heel state. Like Florida, the polling has bounced around in North Carolina but within a more narrow range. The result is about the same, however: Clinton up narrowly here at FHQ.

Ohio:
Clinton may be downsizing in Ohio (at least in terms of her presence in the state), but today was a day that found her on the plus side of 40 percent in a couple of new polls there. That is a break from the pattern that had emerged in the Buckeye state. Trump has mostly been in the low to mid-40s since September 11 and Clinton trailing around if not below 40. Both polls stop the march toward a tie in the averages here, but Ohio is still very close. Only Nevada is closer.

Pennsylvania:
If breaking 40 is the main issue for Trump in the Lean Clinton states, then that bubble may have been busted. New surveys from Harper and CNN in the Keystone state find the New York businessman back in the 40s for the first time since August (with just one exception from IPSOS). This is the first CNN poll in Pennsylvania so it is difficult to get a good read on the context, but the Harper poll has Clinton stationary and Trump gaining four points since the last poll the firm conducted there.

...in March. Of course, that was a period when the few polls to come out of Pennsylvania found Trump in the low to mid-30s (during primary season).

Virginia:
Finally in Virginia, aside from the high third party presence in the new Christopher Newport survey, the margin looks about right relative to the FHQ average for the Old Dominion. That stands at about six points, around where most of the polls have been there over the last couple of weeks.

--
There was a lot of new data to usher in the new week, but not much in the way of changes here at FHQ. All of the states with new polling information stayed in place on the map. However, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania each moved one cell close to the partisan line on the Spectrum and Colorado moved off the Watch List. The Centennial state is now in the heart of the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum¹
HI-4² (7)	NJ-14 (175)	ME-4 (264)	MS-6 (126)	TN-11 (56)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	CO-9³ (273 \| 274)	MO-10 (120)	AR-6 (45)
VT-3 (20)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 \| 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
MA-11 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 \| 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
CA-55 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 \| 221)	KS-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	NV-6 (203)	UT-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (232)	IA-6 (197)	IN-11 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	NH-4 (236)	AZ-11 (191)	MT-3 (75)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	PA-20 (256)	GA-16 (180)	KY-8 (72)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	RI-4 (260)	TX-38 (164)	LA-8 (64)	WY-3 (3)
¹ Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. ² The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. ³ Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

State	Switch
The Watch List¹
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
¹ Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.