The Hawaii Republican Party convened its 2015 state convention during the weekend of May 2. On the agenda for the delegates in attendance was a routine reexamination of the rules that govern the party and its procedures.
One item that was not seriously debated or at least altered in the rules was the date of the caucuses that will initiate the 2016 national delegate selection/allocation process for Republicans in the Aloha state. Set for the second Tuesday in March under the 2013 rules -- the 2011 rules as well -- that provision was carried over to 2015 rules.
That position will place the Hawaii Republican caucuses on the same date as the Idaho primary, Michigan primary and Mississippi primary on the 2016 presidential primary calendar. Alabama and Ohio are both looking to move away from that date. North Carolina has active legislation to shift into that date.
Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Monday, April 6, 2015
March 26 Caucuses for Hawaii Democrats in 2016
The Democratic Party of Hawaii on Friday, April 3 released for public comment the draft of its 2016 delegate selection plan.1 As FHQ has done with several other caucuses states so far, the focus here will be on the proposed date of the Hawaii Democratic caucuses. These draft plans must first be opened to public comment before being submitted to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for final approval or requested changes.
Like Washington state before it, Hawaii Democrats have zeroed in on Saturday, March 26 precinct meetings as the "first determining step" in its delegate selection/allocation process. The late March date is approximately three weeks later than the Wednesday, March 7 calendar position Aloha state Democrats used for its precinct meetings in 2012. Such a late March caucuses date would represent the latest date on which the Hawaii Democrats have begun their delegate selection process in the post-reform era. During that period, Hawaii Democrats have caucused no later than the second Tuesday in March.
NOTE: FHQ will pencil these dates in on the 2016 presidential primary calendar, but please note that the plans are not finalized and are still subject to change. With very few exceptions, though, the dates in the 2012 draft plans for caucuses states did not change.
--
1 The above link is to the plan on the Democratic Party of Hawaii site. FHQ will also keep a version of the plan here.
Like Washington state before it, Hawaii Democrats have zeroed in on Saturday, March 26 precinct meetings as the "first determining step" in its delegate selection/allocation process. The late March date is approximately three weeks later than the Wednesday, March 7 calendar position Aloha state Democrats used for its precinct meetings in 2012. Such a late March caucuses date would represent the latest date on which the Hawaii Democrats have begun their delegate selection process in the post-reform era. During that period, Hawaii Democrats have caucused no later than the second Tuesday in March.
NOTE: FHQ will pencil these dates in on the 2016 presidential primary calendar, but please note that the plans are not finalized and are still subject to change. With very few exceptions, though, the dates in the 2012 draft plans for caucuses states did not change.
--
1 The above link is to the plan on the Democratic Party of Hawaii site. FHQ will also keep a version of the plan here.
Friday, November 2, 2012
The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)
24 new polls from 17 states closed out the final work week before election day. Additionally, there were two other surveys from earlier in October factored in as well from a couple of non-competitive states -- Maine and Nebraska.
This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.
From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.
The map (changes since 11/1):
No change in the overall tally. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).
The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.
The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.
Please see:
New State Polls (11/2/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/- 3.8%
|
695 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
--
|
+2
|
+1.65
| |
Colorado
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- -.-%
|
825 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
4
|
+4
|
--
| |
Connecticut
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1220 likely voters
|
55
|
42
|
3
|
+13
|
+11.64
| |
Georgia
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/- 2.7%
|
1316 likely voters
|
46
|
52
|
1
|
+6
|
+9.04
| |
Hawaii
|
10/24-10/26
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1218 likely voters
|
61
|
34
|
5
|
+27
|
+29.35
| |
Indiana
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
41
|
50
|
--
|
+9
|
+12.01
| |
Indiana
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
41
|
54
|
5
|
+13
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
11/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
594 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
6
|
+4
|
+2.67
| |
Maine
|
10/7-10/8
|
+/- 4.0%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
44
|
--
|
+4
|
+13.21
| |
Maine
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/- 2.4%
|
1633 likely voters
|
55
|
42
|
2
|
+13
|
--
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- 3.48%
|
761 likely voters
|
54.0
|
41.4
|
4.6
|
+12.6
|
+19.56
| |
Massachusetts
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1089 likely voters
|
57
|
42
|
2
|
+15
|
--
| |
Michigan
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- -.-%
|
500 likely voters
|
52
|
46
|
2
|
+6
|
+5.72
| |
Michigan
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 registered voters
|
48
|
41
|
9
|
+7
|
--
| |
Michigan
|
11/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
750 likely voters
|
52
|
47
|
1
|
+5
|
--
| |
Minnesota
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/- -.-%
|
772 likely voters
|
53
|
44
|
3
|
+9
|
+7.90
| |
Montana
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
41
|
49
|
--
|
+8
|
+9.11
| |
Nebraska
|
10/23-10/25
|
+/- 3.8%
|
679 likely voters
|
38
|
52
|
--
|
+14
|
+13.76
| |
Nebraska
|
11/1
|
+/- 2.95%
|
1178 likely voters
|
41
|
54
|
3
|
+13
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
50
|
44
|
4
|
+6
|
+4.06
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/- 3.7%
|
1017 likely voters
|
50
|
44
|
4
|
+6
|
+3.30
| |
Ohio
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/- 2.6%
|
1649 likely voters
|
50
|
46
|
--
|
+4
|
+2.86
| |
Ohio
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/- 3.5%
|
796 likely voters
|
50
|
47
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
11/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
750 likely voters
|
49
|
49
|
1
|
0
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1069 likely voters
|
49
|
48
|
--
|
+1
|
+1.69
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1210 likely voters
|
52
|
45
|
--
|
+7
|
+4.57
| |
This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.
From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.
The map (changes since 11/1):
| Changes (November 2) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Obama | Lean Obama | |
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).
The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
ME-4
(158)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
GA-16
(167)
|
MS-6
(58)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
SD-3
(151)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
NY-29
(39)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
IA-6
(281/263)
|
SC-9
(148)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
RI-4
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
VA-13
(294/257)
|
IN-11
(139)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
TN-11
(128)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
NE-5
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
WV-5
(112)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
TX-38
(107)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(180)
|
ND-3
(69)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
WA-12
(154)
|
NV-6
(253)
|
MT-3
(170)
|
LA-8
(66)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.
| |||
Please see:
Thursday, October 4, 2012
The Electoral College Map (10/4/12)
Anticipating the debates, most firms had already weighed in with pre-debate polls setting various state-level baselines for both candidates. That means that for a Thursday there just weren't that many new polls floating around. But there were a handful.
Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
Again, the Nutmeg state enjoyed a period of time where it looks as if the poll margins were closing into the upper single digits, but that has since slipped back into the lower double digit range. And the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut confirms that. The previous Q poll was an example of a narrower gap -- just before the Republican convention -- and this latest poll shows that margin back up at the 12 point level; right around the overall FHQ weighted average margin.
Hawaii:
Hawaii makes the second deeply blue state without any 2012 polling data to have a survey released this week. [Rhode Island was the other.] Like Rhode Island, there isn't really any suspense in the Aloha state. Obama's home state is still safely blue for the president even if the gap between the candidates in this poll is slightly lower than where the 2008 election results were.
Missouri:
I don't know that a Romney +3 in Missouri is all that surprising, but the Show Me state has never really felt like a 2012 toss up state at any point this year. However, recent polling seems to be suggesting that +3 is the lower bound of the range of polling results; a bit of a best case/worst case scenario for Obama or Romney, respectively. For the sake of context, the Romney share of support in this poll is right on his FHQ average there while Obama's is slightly overstated as compared to the same metric.
There were very few polls today and not surprisingly that offered little in the way of opportunity to see changes to the map (and resultant electoral vote tally) or the Electoral College Spectrum. The map remains unchanged as compared to a day ago and the Spectrum saw only Hawaii move; jumping both New York and Rhode Island to a spot deep into the Obama column.
The same principle applies to the Watch List. None of the seven states on the list had new polling information released and none of three states with new survey data were all that close to the cutpoints to put them on the list. The status quo wins out as we await some post-debate data.
Please see:
New State Polls (10/4/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Connecticut
|
9/28-10/2
|
+/- 2.4%
|
1696 likely voters
|
54
|
42
|
4
|
+12
|
+12.20
| |
Hawaii
|
9/26-9/28
|
+/- 2.4%
|
1648 likely voters
|
62
|
30
|
6
|
+32
|
+26.25
| |
Missouri
|
10/2
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
46
|
49
|
3
|
+3
|
+6.72
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
Again, the Nutmeg state enjoyed a period of time where it looks as if the poll margins were closing into the upper single digits, but that has since slipped back into the lower double digit range. And the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut confirms that. The previous Q poll was an example of a narrower gap -- just before the Republican convention -- and this latest poll shows that margin back up at the 12 point level; right around the overall FHQ weighted average margin.
Hawaii:
Hawaii makes the second deeply blue state without any 2012 polling data to have a survey released this week. [Rhode Island was the other.] Like Rhode Island, there isn't really any suspense in the Aloha state. Obama's home state is still safely blue for the president even if the gap between the candidates in this poll is slightly lower than where the 2008 election results were.
Missouri:
I don't know that a Romney +3 in Missouri is all that surprising, but the Show Me state has never really felt like a 2012 toss up state at any point this year. However, recent polling seems to be suggesting that +3 is the lower bound of the range of polling results; a bit of a best case/worst case scenario for Obama or Romney, respectively. For the sake of context, the Romney share of support in this poll is right on his FHQ average there while Obama's is slightly overstated as compared to the same metric.
There were very few polls today and not surprisingly that offered little in the way of opportunity to see changes to the map (and resultant electoral vote tally) or the Electoral College Spectrum. The map remains unchanged as compared to a day ago and the Spectrum saw only Hawaii move; jumping both New York and Rhode Island to a spot deep into the Obama column.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
VT-3
(6)2
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NV-6
(257)
|
AZ-11
(167)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
HI-4
(10)
|
NJ-14
(172)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(156)
|
KY-8
(52)
|
RI-4
(14)
|
CT-7
(179)
|
VA-13
(288/263)
|
IN-11
(153)
|
AL-9
(44)
|
NY-29
(43)
|
NM-5
(184)
|
IA-6
(294/250)
|
GA-16
(142)
|
KS-6
(35)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
MN-10
(194)
|
CO-9
(303/244)
|
SC-9
(126)
|
AR-6
(29)
|
MA-11
(64)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(117)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
IL-20
(84)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(109)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
CA-55
(139)
|
MI-16
(237)
|
SD-3
(191)
|
TX-38
(104)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
WI-10
(247)
|
MO-10
(188)
|
WV-5
(66)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
NH-4
(251)
|
TN-11
(178)
|
MS-6
(61)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The same principle applies to the Watch List. None of the seven states on the list had new polling information released and none of three states with new survey data were all that close to the cutpoints to put them on the list. The status quo wins out as we await some post-debate data.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Minnesota
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Montana
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Toss Up Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that toss up distinction.
| |||
Please see:
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