tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post9174643872552396048..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88895810488889481232008-10-04T01:40:00.000-04:002008-10-04T01:40:00.000-04:00One other thing about MN: There was another Survey...One other thing about MN: There was another SurveyUSA poll out that day on the Senate race that had Coleman up by 10, when most polls show it as about a one point race. Would they have asked the same people each question? The sample sizes are the same.<BR/><BR/>I'm no expert on polling, and I have no idea if this is a reasonable thought, but if they were the same people, that suggests that this poll got more people who tend to lean Republican. I don't know if SurveyUSA weights by party ID, but even if they do it's simply possible they got a lot of Republican leaning independents.<BR/><BR/>Again, my hypothesis could be completely foolish for all I know - I'm speculating on a subject (polling) I don't know much about. Which is something Sarah Palin does all the time.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83335774773391995962008-10-03T22:50:00.000-04:002008-10-03T22:50:00.000-04:00That's my feeling on Minnesota as well, Jack. It ...That's my feeling on Minnesota as well, Jack. It is closer, moving against the tide across much of the nation, but still favoring Obama. Maybe not by as much as our map would indicate (see new post), but not as close as some others have it either.<BR/><BR/>I think the CNN poll is the outlier. But we really do need more polling in Minnesota.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-21439315955011553902008-10-03T22:44:00.000-04:002008-10-03T22:44:00.000-04:00I wonder how much this Minnesota poll means. Yes, ...I wonder how much this Minnesota poll means. Yes, I read the 538 post and I know that McCain's putting a lot of resources into the state (which explains why MN is not moving towards Obama as the rest of the country does), but coming after an Obama +12 poll we'll have to see which one is an outlier. Or maybe they both are. The polling in MN has been so crazy this year. My guess from the numbers I see is that the reality right now is that Obama ahead by a few points there.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84032279572702835902008-10-03T22:29:00.000-04:002008-10-03T22:29:00.000-04:00A good question, Paragon. Nevada (and Virginia an...A good question, Paragon. Nevada (and Virginia and Ohio) are so close now in our averages that small things count. In this instance, a change in the value of the most recent poll; the one that is given the greatest weight in our methodology. Obama had a five point lead in the CNN poll yesterday and when the weight was taken off that poll and went to the one point lead he had in the Insider Advantage poll. The drop from 5 to 1 is what caused the switch.<BR/><BR/>But again, this just simply points out how competitive Nevada is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-40541677647914287872008-10-03T22:06:00.000-04:002008-10-03T22:06:00.000-04:00How did Obama get a +1 in Nevada, then lose the st...How did Obama get a +1 in Nevada, then lose the state?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07811812657671526072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-21547527153332901822008-10-03T20:23:00.000-04:002008-10-03T20:23:00.000-04:00Rasmussen has a new poll out today of Nevada showi...Rasmussen has a new poll out today of Nevada showing Obama +4.<BR/>You're probably gonna have to turn Nevada blue tomorrow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26062313175823295912008-10-03T14:32:00.000-04:002008-10-03T14:32:00.000-04:00I also think neither candidate will get 50% of the...I also think neither candidate will get 50% of the national vote.<BR/>My prediction APPROXIMATELY 48.50 Obama-45.50 McCain, 6% third party.<BR/>If the election wasn't so close I think 3rd party voting would be higher than the 6% I'm predicting.<BR/>Most third party voting will go to Barr and Baldwin from potential McCain/republican vote.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-25920012598252922812008-10-03T14:26:00.000-04:002008-10-03T14:26:00.000-04:00All of what I'm about to say is only my opinion.Th...All of what I'm about to say is only my opinion.<BR/>There are 5 true toss up states in this election and Bush won them all in 2004.<BR/>Here are the margins that Bush won these states in 2004:<BR/>Ohio 2.1%<BR/>Nevada 2.6<BR/>Colorado 4.7<BR/>Florida 5.0<BR/>Virginia 8.2<BR/><BR/>It's hard for me to believe that Virginia would change 8.3% in one direction(to Obama) therefor don't be surprised if/when McCain starts polling better in Virginia.<BR/><BR/>Florida I could see being a squeaker for McCain barely winning the state.<BR/><BR/>Let me jump to Ohio before tackling Colorado and Nevada.<BR/>Ohio depends on how the "Reagan democrats" decide to vote, if they reject Obama then McCain will squeak one out here, if they are alright with Obama then Obama will win the state.<BR/>Therefore Ohio to me is the purest of pure toss up state.<BR/><BR/>It's hard for me to believe that Colorado is a better chance for Obama than Nevada considering Nevada's white population is 58% and Colorado is 72%.<BR/>Both states I expect Obama to win, but don't be surprised to see Obama start polling better in Nevada than Colorado.<BR/><BR/>Of the 5 states that I listed, here are my predictions and margin of victory APPROXIMATELY.<BR/>1 Nevada- Obama 3-4% Closer To 4<BR/>2 Colorado Obama 1-2% Closer To 2<BR/>3 Ohio Toss Up Winner Less Than 1/2% Leaning McCain <BR/>4 Florida McCain 1-2% Closer To 1<BR/>5 Virginia McCain 3-4% Closer To 3Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-82514181434011800652008-10-03T13:19:00.000-04:002008-10-03T13:19:00.000-04:00For some reason I took "suspending this blog" seri...For some reason I took "suspending this blog" seriously for a moment. It took me a while to get the reference. I guess after nine months of this (just counting from Iowa) even the most politically obsessed person starts to miss the obvious.<BR/><BR/>"Discount all the polls but the ones from March more so than the ones from August. That would be similar to the half life formula 538 has in place, but I wouldn't completely phase out a poll."<BR/><BR/>That sounds good. I'm sure you'll come up with something that works great.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-46313570448057294292008-10-03T13:09:00.000-04:002008-10-03T13:09:00.000-04:00Jack,I don't get it....which is why I am suspendin...Jack,<BR/>I don't get it.<BR/><BR/>...which is why I am suspending this blog effective immediately to deal with the issue head on. We must return mocking to the blogosphere (or at least FHQ).<BR/><BR/>It would take a lot of 5 point polls to put Obama in the lead. 10 put a dent in the average, but only got it to around two. <BR/><BR/>This weekend, when I have a bit more time, I'll look into the effects a progressive weighting structure would have on the average. Discount all the polls but the ones from March more so than the ones from August. That would be similar to the half life formula 538 has in place, but I wouldn't completely phase out a poll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-45359483057394182192008-10-03T12:55:00.000-04:002008-10-03T12:55:00.000-04:00Josh:I'm frankly very disappointed that you just d...Josh:<BR/><BR/>I'm frankly very disappointed that you just don't get it. Mocking works, requests do not.<BR/><BR/>I guess the problem here is that there are polls from a month or two ago that really don't mean much that are really weighing down these averages. Who was ahead in August really don't matter in October.<BR/><BR/>Just out of curiosity, how many +5 polls would it take to put Obama ahead in NC?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-40765079400111235502008-10-03T12:51:00.000-04:002008-10-03T12:51:00.000-04:00North Carolina has been my test case for a potenti...North Carolina has been my test case for a potential change in the formula. <BR/><BR/>Actually, it wouldn't take a completely outlandish result to get Obama into that toss up category. With the Elon poll (Obama +2) from today included, a five point Obama lead in the next poll would bring him under that lean/toss up threshold. <BR/><BR/>But I can act like that would be nearly impossible for a poll of that margin to come out. It may be the mocking that triggers the change. But I will say, it took a couple of weeks after I called for more polling in Delaware for us to actually get some. My powers are apparently limited.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42505966146469429372008-10-03T12:42:00.000-04:002008-10-03T12:42:00.000-04:00North Carolina has a +3 poll for Obama and is stil...North Carolina has a +3 poll for Obama and is still a McCain lean? What will it take to move it to tossup? Please make some comment about how it would take an Obama +10 poll, because then that will happen, like it did when you mocked that possibility in Virginia.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com