tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post8779761903160787075..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Pennsylvania ResultsJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77842751458098937322008-04-23T10:19:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:19:00.000-04:00It is interesting that the Sunday/ Monday polls we...It is interesting that the Sunday/ Monday polls were more accurate than the exit polls. Shades of the 2004 general election! One other thing about the exit polls was that by as 55-43% margin thought Obama would win the nomination even though the majority supported Clinton. So much for the old bandwagon effect. The other thing that the talking heads have come back to is the whole idea of momentum, but momentum does not seem to be playing a factor this year for the Democrats. It has been much more about demographics than about momentum. Momentum provided McCain the Republican nomination, but has been greatly overestimated in the Democratic race.<BR/><BR/>Will have a few more thoughts to express after your post.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16419876914308664262008-04-23T08:49:00.000-04:002008-04-23T08:49:00.000-04:00Something similar to what Schneider said was what ...Something similar to what Schneider said was what I went to bed thinking about last night. I'll have more in a separate post after my class this morning. <BR/><BR/>The interesting thing is that two-thirds thought Hillary was too harsh in her criticism of Obama. Yet, her total was 55%. That means that there were people (and quite a few of them from the looks of it) who thought Hillary was too harsh, but voted for her anyway. The exit polls may have been off there. They certainly overestimated the closeness of the outcome (by three or four points--the margin of error).Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55476399554055387722008-04-23T08:29:00.000-04:002008-04-23T08:29:00.000-04:00Well she got her 10% (9.7% if you get more precise...Well she got her 10% (9.7% if you get more precise). I heard two insightful comments last night among the many mathematically challenged pundits. Bill Schneider said that she won NJ and OH by 10% which means that despite everything that has happened in the last seven weeks, little has really changed. The other cogent comment was by Jeffery Toobin who claimed that this was the worst possible outcome for the Democrats. A smaller victory (less than 5%) by Clinton would have been a loss for her while a bigger win (much above 10%) would have put her back in play. This result gives her justification to stay in the race but not enough to make much of a dent in the delegate count and not enough to capture the popular vote. It certainly gives her campaign a solid two more weeks. It will be interesting to see if she is able to get some superdelegates to come out now after her victory to commit.<BR/><BR/>On the idea of negative campaigning, it does not seem to have helped Obama. Apparently there is a struggle in his campaign right now as to whether to go negative on her in NC and IN. I think that would be a big mistake, but time will tell. More later.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com