tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post6723459160545274202..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Is the Electoral College really an Argument Clinton wants to make?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-43672785548756438692011-01-04T21:11:39.084-05:002011-01-04T21:11:39.084-05:00I suspect the Obama camp would be interested in yo...I suspect the Obama camp would be interested in your results.Juegos de Motoshttp://juegosdemotos10.org/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-52117822456004712842008-05-08T12:16:00.000-04:002008-05-08T12:16:00.000-04:00(To stone waves' assertion that, even nmore than i...(To stone waves' assertion that, even nmore than in previous elections, people will be voting for the lesser-of-two-evils)<BR/><BR/>Sure, there will always be people who are some people who are disenchanted with the choices on offer, but if you think this year is worse than in years past, you must be very young or have a very short memory. Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore, or Clinton/Dole? Both Obama and McCain are godsends compared to that list of clowns. <BR/><BR/>This is the first election year in recent memory in which we have not one but two candidates who are truly appealing to the middle of the elctorate that decides these things. Both Obama and McCain have pledged to work across party lines rather than demonizing their ideological adveraries as extremists. Both have at least tried to rise above petty mud-slinging (I'm sure they'll leave that to their surrogates, but still, it's an imporvement in tone). Both are personally inspiring -- a real war hero, and the first African American with a real shot at the presidency.<BR/><BR/>With Hillary finally out of the picturem, I'll be happy whichever way this one goes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24279356013841427162008-04-04T16:48:00.000-04:002008-04-04T16:48:00.000-04:00Your map shows Texas as a toss-up? You just lost ...Your map shows Texas as a toss-up? You just lost all credibility right there. Neither democrat will come within 10 points in that state.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-57445940494611731722008-04-04T10:30:00.000-04:002008-04-04T10:30:00.000-04:00McCain's perceived involvement in Boeing losing to...McCain's perceived involvement in Boeing losing to France for the recent tanker deal is literally strong enough to cost him Washington state. That and the war is incredibly unpopular here, or at least on the west side of the Cascades where most of the state lives.<BR/><BR/>Any analysis where Washington is portrayed as in play for the GOP is questionable.<BR/><BR/>Washington state residentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88689015168891524692008-04-02T10:44:00.000-04:002008-04-02T10:44:00.000-04:00Do you mean Strong = >10% and Toss-up = Strong = 5...Do you mean Strong = >10% and Toss-up = <5%?<BR/>Strong = <10% (Stong = less than 10 %) and Toss-Up = >5% (Toss-up = greater than 5%) just doesn't make sense.Sean Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16004295317418070785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49759236138186353802008-04-02T06:09:00.000-04:002008-04-02T06:09:00.000-04:00Massachusetts a swing state in McCain vs. Obama? N...Massachusetts a swing state in McCain vs. Obama? Not bloody likely.<BR/><BR/>Calls the whole analysis into question. Not to mention the data's two months old and November is 7 months away.<BR/><BR/>I guess it's worth the paper it's printed on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-70749634480324400892008-04-02T02:42:00.000-04:002008-04-02T02:42:00.000-04:00The discussion on how Obama is a map changer while...The discussion on how Obama is a map changer while Clinton is not ignores McCain. McCain himself is a map changer, which is why he puts the North-West into play. The NW has a long tradition of liberal Republicans, only recently put to rest, that McCain seems to be tapping into.<BR/><BR/>But Obama changes the map once again, which is why the two facing each other gives such a strange and interesting map.Xactiphynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08254344563346437079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-2798429150799310752008-04-02T00:16:00.000-04:002008-04-02T00:16:00.000-04:00more great analysis here:http://www.fivethirtyeigh...more great analysis here:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/" REL="nofollow">http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-6066117230136749422008-04-01T22:42:00.000-04:002008-04-01T22:42:00.000-04:00Interesting analysis indeed. I think either Clint...Interesting analysis indeed. I think either Clinton or Obama will be a strong candidate against McCain. I think the Dems need to continue the McCain=Bush or McCain is worse than Bush mantra. Obama's message of change is perfect to counter that message.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-40268364140721061242008-04-01T22:36:00.000-04:002008-04-01T22:36:00.000-04:00Tom,I'll have more tomorrow on some of those state...Tom,<BR/>I'll have more tomorrow on some of those states when I do an update of the maps to account for the new polls that have come out in the last week.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36795150965428044542008-04-01T21:35:00.000-04:002008-04-01T21:35:00.000-04:00I find it very hard to believe that Clinton would ...I find it very hard to believe that Clinton would lose Washington, Oregon, Michigan AND Wisconsin. But, I haven't done the research and you have.<BR/><BR/>But, if just ONE of those states flips for Clinton (like Washington, for example) does that change your numbers? Or, a combination of those?<BR/><BR/>Just wondering. Note, I am not a Clinton supporter, but when was the last time that Washington went Republican in the Presidential election.<BR/><BR/>Also, I do not believe that ALL voters are going to be voting for the lesser of three evils. I don't see how the current data on registration and fundraising (particularly for the Dems) can support that view. I find it needlessly hopeless and, worse, not supported by the facts at all.<BR/><BR/>Thoughts?<BR/><BR/>TomTom Swifthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13394851937393131868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-58002314137285839252008-04-01T21:20:00.000-04:002008-04-01T21:20:00.000-04:00Well done analysis...Something else that's interes...Well done analysis...Something else that's interesting:<BR/><BR/>If Hillary was to win all of the purple states then end result would be Hillary 304 - 234 (Think I added correctly there). So she can give up 36 of the purple state EVs.. meaning (basically) she can only give up one of OH, FL, PA or two of the any of the other purples. That's a tall order.<BR/><BR/>Obama's map says one thing to me: He should have Richardson as his VP. Imagine a strong pro-Obama/Richardson Latino vote applied to his map. Turns TX, NM and puts FL back in play.Sam Rapsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00543260338681796436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-8381640548000842462008-04-01T21:08:00.000-04:002008-04-01T21:08:00.000-04:00Great stuff, Josh. How did you compose your electr...Great stuff, Josh. How did you compose your electral map? Did you need a special computer program? I've been trying to do one of my own.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-27592778514749300772008-04-01T19:44:00.000-04:002008-04-01T19:44:00.000-04:00I think any democrat needs a strong turnout of the...I think any democrat needs a strong turnout of the black vote to win in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.<BR/><BR/>I suspect HRC has burned that bridge.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-43300069235391511162008-04-01T19:42:00.000-04:002008-04-01T19:42:00.000-04:00Hillary is so defensive because she's a chronic li...Hillary is so defensive because she's a chronic liar:<BR/><BR/>http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm<BR/><BR/>Seriously, I think I understand why she feels everyone is out to get her. She lies so much she's haunting herself mentally. Maybe her supporters should be more honest with her and ask her to seek real professional help before running for the highest office of the land.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42926452684298980062008-04-01T18:35:00.000-04:002008-04-01T18:35:00.000-04:00You may be right, Anonymous, but I am not sure tha...You may be right, Anonymous, but I am not sure that Clinton will fare any better from the 527s than Obama. The Republicans have much more on her than they have on him. The Rodney King tapes suggest that people become numb after a while and fail to continue to connect after being shown the same thing over and over. I also wonder where the Wright tapes came from in the first place? the Clinton campaign, the Republican 527s or someone else? Sean Hannity has been talking about Wright for months without any traction. It seems that the Republicans would much rather face Clinton than Obama. I also think that the Independents are beginning to react negatively to dredging up dirt. Obama took a hit when the tapes first appeared, but since then Clinton has lost more ground than he has.<BR/><BR/>McCain is very vulnerable on Iraq and the economy. The last week has not exactly been that encouraging on either front. I expect many twists and turns before it is all over. Few of the lessons from past elections appear to apply to this year's race.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26414755408945867092008-04-01T09:34:00.000-04:002008-04-01T09:34:00.000-04:00Your study ignores what the map will look like aft...Your study ignores what the map will look like after the Republican 527's shred Obama. I doubt very much any red state will go for Obama after months of replaying Michelle dissing America, Wright sound bites over and over, the pledge, etc. Sad to say but the Republicans will paint Obama into the minority, too-liberal, America hating corner. It will be ugly but it will probably work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42242443277815883932008-03-28T18:54:00.000-04:002008-03-28T18:54:00.000-04:00Stone,An interesting perspective. One of the strat...Stone,<BR/><BR/>An interesting perspective. One of the strategies that has been applied over the last 20 years is voter suppression to keep all but the most devoted away from the polls. I think there will be several who vote for the "lesser of two evils" and there will be several who choose not to vote. However, there will be many who will believe in their candidate. I have followed eleven Presidential campaigns, and I don't think this will be the worst. I don't believe that this year will be as bad as 1960, 1968, 1972 or even the last two. Even if it is the dirtiest campaign, a strong leader can emerge.<BR/><BR/>I am reading "Applebee's America" which catalogs how Clinton won in 1996 and Bush won in 2004 without having the issues on their side. It shows how these campaigns have used sophisticated marketing techniques to sell a "mediocre" candidate. I highly recommend it to give a broader perspective.<BR/><BR/>Another non-political scientist but confessed political junkie.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-13138261520081243062008-03-28T06:07:00.000-04:002008-03-28T06:07:00.000-04:00from a non-political scientist:even more so that i...from a non-political scientist:<BR/><BR/>even more so that in past elections, people are not going to vote for who they think is the BEST candidate, they will be voting for "candidate X" because the other one is worse.<BR/><BR/>Not what I would call a ringing endorsement of anyone running. I've asked many supporters of McCain, Clinton and Obama to give me one reason, one positive reason, why their candidate deserves my vote.<BR/><BR/>The results? Either there is silence, or I'm told because the other guy is worse or there's a general "they are all the same" reason given.<BR/><BR/>This campaign season will go down in history as being the dirtiest. Discussion and debate of the issues will not factor into someone's voting decision. <BR/><BR/>The candidate that wins will be the one that is able to throw the most mud, have it stick while avoiding the same.D. Hippaufhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10117523370114950759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-69868261692809956752008-03-27T17:23:00.000-04:002008-03-27T17:23:00.000-04:00Great analysis! I suspect the Obama camp would be ...Great analysis! I suspect the Obama camp would be interested in your results.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-23373514180290839582008-03-27T12:32:00.000-04:002008-03-27T12:32:00.000-04:00Very interesting analysis.Very interesting analysis.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00125323320717351791noreply@blogger.com