tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post6562706947405875426..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Did Obama or McCain Win July?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-81910370403855220832008-08-05T22:56:00.000-04:002008-08-05T22:56:00.000-04:00Yes, original maverick was supposed to be a link t...Yes, <A HREF="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/new-ad-calls-mccain-the-original-maverick/" REL="nofollow">original maverick</A> was supposed to be a link to McCain's new ad that came out today. I have no idea what happened.<BR/><BR/>Good. This one seems to be working.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26871502327435586672008-08-05T22:31:00.000-04:002008-08-05T22:31:00.000-04:00Josh, did you mean "original maverick" to be a lin...Josh, did you mean "original maverick" to be a link? It's not working.<BR/><BR/>I agree with everything you two have said. McCain, as we've all said before, has a tougher balancing act to keep up, as he is in more danger with his base. But perhaps his maverick image gives him a little leeway with independents who are skeptical of Obama.<BR/><BR/>I was watching Countdown with Keith Olbermann today - it's sort of a guilty pleasure for me. He's no McCain supporter, of course, but he (or a guest) seemed to indicate that polls show that people don't really mind nuclear energy right now, what with gas prices so high. But I think it will drive more people away than it will bring in, especially, as you pointed out, in Nevada.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-74568078068131960712008-08-05T20:59:00.000-04:002008-08-05T20:59:00.000-04:00Josh,We'll see how long that holds up. I can't bel...Josh,<BR/><BR/>We'll see how long that holds up. I can't believe that the independents are excited about nuclear power, particularly if one of those 45 plants will be within 50 miles of their home. I don't think that will help McCain in Nevada. He has done a decent job balancing his maverick and true-red conservatism, but I don't think it will hold.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-2089424369730857662008-08-05T20:20:00.000-04:002008-08-05T20:20:00.000-04:00But Rob, McCain is the original maverick.But Rob, McCain is the <A>original maverick</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89159315747960994412008-08-05T20:17:00.000-04:002008-08-05T20:17:00.000-04:00We discussed this in our discussion group today. ...We discussed this in our discussion group today. Obama could attempt to bait McCain into one of his moments during the debates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26058546362075140192008-08-05T20:16:00.000-04:002008-08-05T20:16:00.000-04:00Jack,I meant it humorously as well. I think Obama ...Jack,<BR/><BR/>I meant it humorously as well. I think Obama will start portraying McCain as a grumpy old man who is out of touch. McCain has effectively blunted the age issue and turned the race issue back on Obama. It is an excellent short-term success, but he is spending his ammunition early. If he defines Obama early and it sticks, the strategy will work, but I think it could well blow up in McCain's face. McCain is looking more and more like a typical politician and not the maverick he is supposed to be. I don't see how he can juggle the right and independents for very long.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-17351948108894357352008-08-05T19:53:00.000-04:002008-08-05T19:53:00.000-04:00Robert, you didn't shake me up - it was a weak att...Robert, you didn't shake me up - it was a weak attempt at humor on my part. I totally agree that he needs to fight back as hard as he is attacked.<BR/><BR/>Was thinking this over for a while, and perhaps they could react, closer to November, by portraying McCain as angry and dangerous. Even some Republicans (notably Thad Cochran and another senator whose name I cannot recall) have made comments to that effect. The Daisy ad was very effective in 1964, and this might be one of the few attacks that would work against McCain that is not purely related to the issues.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36498332619385108582008-08-05T16:50:00.000-04:002008-08-05T16:50:00.000-04:00Jack, Sorry, I did not mean to shake you up. I hav...Jack, <BR/><BR/>Sorry, I did not mean to shake you up. I have been amazed at how many times this year I have found Pat Buchanan and Karl Rove making sense to me. Barack started somewhat slow in the early debates and in his response to Hillary, but he and his team should be smart enough to counter the Big Mac Attacks. If he is unable to effectively counter them he will become Kerryized!Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-479675701992331232008-08-05T15:27:00.000-04:002008-08-05T15:27:00.000-04:00Sorry. I was in a meeting. We're off to a rousin...Sorry. I was in a meeting. We're off to a rousing start here. Karl Rove and Pat Buchanan have already made appearances. It must be good.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/mr_obama_welcome_to_the_nfl.html" REL="nofollow">Here's that link from Rob</A>.<BR/><BR/>I think this map point is a good distinction to make, Jack. And it adds another layer to this discussion. Let's look under the hood a bit at those three states you mentioned.<BR/><BR/>July Movement (toward McCain)<BR/>MI: 0.006<BR/>OH: 0.2<BR/>VA: 0.007<BR/><BR/>In other words, the shifts are among the smallest (indicative of a swing state), but they aren't at a level that they cannot be reversed. Will they? Let's keep an eye on the next series of polls out of those states.<BR/><BR/>And that gives me an idea. I should rank these July shifts and post them as I do in the electoral college posts. That would be interesting. I'll see if I have time to do that tonight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-46294571992619892722008-08-05T15:07:00.000-04:002008-08-05T15:07:00.000-04:00When I read the words "Pat Buchanan agrees with yo...When I read the words "Pat Buchanan agrees with you," I was momentarily stunned. Surely this is the first time this has ever happened! I began to question myself, wondering what had happened to this Obama-supporting young and passionate liberal.<BR/><BR/>Then I read the article, and was relieved to find several points with which I disagree.<BR/><BR/>But the premise that Obama (or surrogates, or even better, 527s) need to find a way to fight back against this is entirely correct. The problem is that it's a bit harder to do this to McCain. Can't attack his patriotism (though he did make some comments on the subject once that would certainly have come back to haunt Obama). Can't attack him as a celebrity (though in some ways, he often was), or that the media loves him (even though he's referred to the media as his base), as everyone thinks those things are true of Obama. Can't call him arrogant (even though many feel that way) as Obama often comes off as arrogant himself. You can try to call him the next Bush, but everyone thinks he's a maverick.<BR/><BR/>There's only one man who could possibly figure out a way to do to McCain what he has done to Obama.<BR/><BR/>Democrats need Karl Rove on their side.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55952972587647900382008-08-05T14:24:00.000-04:002008-08-05T14:24:00.000-04:00Jack,Pat Buchanan agrees with you.http://www.realc...Jack,<BR/><BR/>Pat Buchanan agrees with you.<BR/><BR/>http://www.realclearpolitics.com<BR/>/articles/2008/08/mr_obama_welcome<BR/>_to_the_nfl.html<BR/><BR/>Obama must develop a thicker skin and more effective response to the attack ads if he is to become #44.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33698842630333274582008-08-05T14:18:00.001-04:002008-08-05T14:18:00.001-04:00Based on the maps alone, Obama would seem to have ...Based on the maps alone, Obama would seem to have won July, but the swing states in which Obama gained (such as Florida, Wisconsin and New Mexico) are either further from the center or less important than the ones in which McCain gained (Ohio, Michigan, Virginia).<BR/><BR/>And McCain, with his (in my view cheap and misleading, but such is politics) attack ads at the end of the month, certainly won the end of July.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-44430704481341079622008-08-05T14:18:00.000-04:002008-08-05T14:18:00.000-04:00I still find it baffling how McCain made so many e...I still find it baffling how McCain made so many errors, Obama had such a great overseas trip and McCain appears to be gaining in national and many state polls. Maybe the discussion group elucidated this conundrum this week.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com