tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post5481197365802022149..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-69269294668257993952008-10-16T11:54:00.000-04:002008-10-16T11:54:00.000-04:00Southern civility? What have you got against Nort...<I>Southern</I> civility? What have you got against Northerners, you little--<BR/><BR/>Just kidding. :-)<BR/><BR/><BR/>On a more serious note, I noticed something interesting looking at the Relative charts. For the most part, the regions act somewhat uniformly over time: Both South regions (except for West Virginia, which is a border state) have generally moved from blue to red, the Northeast regions and the North Cantral have moved from red to blue, Prairie and Southwest and Big Sky have stayed red, etc. <BR/><BR/>But then you've got the Rust Belt. There, Indiana has stayed consistently red, Pennylvania has stayed blue (yes, it was red in '48, but this is before the realignment started for the rest of the country so I assume that to be an outlier), Michigan has kinda sorta moved from red to blue, and Ohio has moved from red to purple. I can kind of understand Pennsylvania acting a little differently from the others since it's a border state, but does anyone know why that region acts in a much less unified manner than most of the other regions?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16645401695696484967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-87527744129003098962008-10-16T11:50:00.000-04:002008-10-16T11:50:00.000-04:00Obama put McCain in a box on the immigration issue...Obama put McCain in a box on the immigration issue. In his most blatantly misleading (untruthful, whatever you want to call it) ads, he went for the Hispanic vote by grossly distorting McCain's record. McCain mentioned immigration last night, but he can't afford to say much about his position without alienating either his base, Hispanics or both!Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-9825797195861561092008-10-15T20:19:00.000-04:002008-10-15T20:19:00.000-04:00No worries, Jack. Just striving for some southern...No worries, Jack. Just striving for some southern civility here. It's crunch time. People are getting tense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-51063935939536659392008-10-15T19:40:00.000-04:002008-10-15T19:40:00.000-04:00Apologies for being a jerk earlier.Apologies for being a jerk earlier.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-5229637115537291322008-10-15T15:01:00.000-04:002008-10-15T15:01:00.000-04:00Alright gents. We've veered off topic here.Jack,L...Alright gents. We've veered off topic here.<BR/><BR/>Jack,<BR/>Let me address some of your initial concerns. Yeah, the averages are certainly vulnerable to extreme outliers. We have two courses of action to deal with this issue.<BR/><BR/>1. Remove the outliers<BR/>2. Use the median<BR/><BR/>Allow me to take the easy way out for now simply because it is less time-consuming. If we remove the extreme outliers (I'll arbitrarily set that at any swing over 20 percentage points from one election to the next.), we see that some of the effect in the 1984-88, 1988-92 and 1996-2000 election is minimized, but not too much.<BR/><BR/>The 1984-88 figure drops to 10.57% toward the Democrats.<BR/><BR/>The 1988-92 number dips to an 11.21% shift toward the Democrats.<BR/><BR/>And the 1996-2000 average shift changes from 10.22% to 8.87%. That's right around that 8.3 threshold. So, by removing the outliers we see that if we move from a tight election (2004) to perhaps a modest landslide (hypothetically 2008), we might see an overall shift around this 8.3% figure that was originally proposed.<BR/><BR/>If I have some time tonight prior to the debate, I'll look at the median numbers as well and see what that turns up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-79577093891945710902008-10-15T14:17:00.000-04:002008-10-15T14:17:00.000-04:00I should add that the "right-wing populism" that a...I should add that the "right-wing populism" that anonymous mentioned is basically a combination of bashing blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Europeans, poor immigrants, educated people and intellectuals, community organizers, Keith Olbermann, pacifists, socialists, feminists, the UN, gays, different lifestyles, value systems and cultures, liberals, soccer fans, Canadians, the disabled, the media, people who don't own guns, and anything that the average white American does not like.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-43554917546886790032008-10-15T14:05:00.000-04:002008-10-15T14:05:00.000-04:00Nope, closeted racist, with a sprinkling of cultur...Nope, closeted racist, with a sprinkling of cultural nationalism, as evidenced by an earlier post of his on another comment. Or something like it.<BR/><BR/>I don't think NV has been that resistant to national trends - it was polling around M+2 when the race was even and has generally been about D+3 or so lately, even if it's been inconsistent. And the problems inherent in polling Nevada may have something to do with it. Maybe it's a litlte less sensitive than the average state but it's definitely been affected.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-8390478449280785342008-10-15T13:56:00.000-04:002008-10-15T13:56:00.000-04:00s.d.Nope, just concerned about the white middle cl...s.d.<BR/><BR/>Nope, just concerned about the white middle class and the shrinkage of it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-64522599786496444152008-10-15T13:29:00.000-04:002008-10-15T13:29:00.000-04:00Wow, anonymous...racist much?Wow, anonymous...racist much?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16645401695696484967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68532549689049382682008-10-15T10:44:00.000-04:002008-10-15T10:44:00.000-04:00I think Nevada and Colorado are a done deal for Ob...I think Nevada and Colorado are a done deal for Obama.<BR/>Even if you take away the 33 electoral votes from Ohio and Virginia on your map Obama still wins with 278 electoral votes.<BR/><BR/>It's funny and sad that the co-writer of the illegal immigration amnesty bill (McCain) is going to lose the election because of the increasing Mexican population in Nevada and Colorado.<BR/><BR/>The republican party needs to wake up and represent the white middle class before the party collapses.<BR/><BR/>I'm a former Republican, now Constitution Party.<BR/>I voted for Pat Buchanan in 92 and 96.<BR/>I guess I would be considered a right-wing populist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26301797024487550492008-10-15T10:28:00.000-04:002008-10-15T10:28:00.000-04:00My previous comments might be confusing.What I'm s...My previous comments might be confusing.<BR/>What I'm saying is that of the 5 states I mentioned I predict Obama winning Nevada by the biggest margin, followed by Colorado then Florida then Ohio then Virginia by the lowest margin (if Obama even wins Virginia).<BR/><BR/>If you look at Real Clear Politics 2004 average for Nevada they had it Bush by 6.3% and Bush won Nevada by 2.6%, that is a 3.7% difference towards Bush.<BR/><BR/>The pollsters have a hard time polling Nevada for some reason.<BR/><BR/>Rasmussen's final poll for Nevada in 2004 had it Bush by 2%, which is pretty accurate.<BR/><BR/>Rasmussen was pretty accurate across the board in 2004.<BR/><BR/>The latest Rasmussen polls for the 5 states I've been mentioning are:<BR/>Colorado Obama +6<BR/>Florida Obama +5<BR/>Nevada Obama +4<BR/>Virginia Obama +3<BR/>Ohio Obama +2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83635149908021862492008-10-15T06:25:00.000-04:002008-10-15T06:25:00.000-04:00Scott,If a national trend is also a Democratic tre...Scott,<BR/>If a national trend is also a Democratic trend, it could be that the oversampling of rural and really red Nevada, may explain the resistance. <BR/><BR/>We've seen some indication of a jump for Obama in Nevada, but I still don't have a sense of whether pollsters conducting surveys there have stumbled upon the right formula for surveying the state. The increased Obama support there doesn't match what has happened in Virginia or Ohio.<BR/><BR/>...or even fellow western state, Colorado.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36914350569438687362008-10-15T00:17:00.000-04:002008-10-15T00:17:00.000-04:00Nevada seems curiously resistant to national trend...Nevada seems curiously resistant to national trends, and I'm not sure why. If things swing back toward McCain, I might agree with anonymous. If they keep going toward Obama, Nevada may very well be the closest of those.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-41567059869314743972008-10-14T23:47:00.000-04:002008-10-14T23:47:00.000-04:00I guess I let a bit of my inner snark out and owe ...I guess I let a bit of my inner snark out and owe Anonymous an apology. Sorry, whoever you are, and apologies in advance as this is bound to happen a few more times before the election.<BR/><BR/>Prohibition Party candidate Amondson is the only candidate I've ever seen whose <A HREF="http://www.geneamondson.com" REL="nofollow">website</A> has more to do with his other endeavors than his presidential run (compare the website of Foxwoods Casino pit boss and Rhode Island senatorial candidate <A HREF="http://www.bobtingle.com" REL="nofollow">Bob Tingle</A> (R), whose website has more and bigger pictures of other people than Tingle himself). The <A HREF="http://www.prohibition.org" REL="nofollow">Prohibition Party website</A> is no help either. You'd have to go to <A HREF="http://buttons.cafepress.com/item/gene-amondson-35-button-10-pack/185550411" REL="nofollow">Cafepress</A>.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-75249666397888801122008-10-14T23:32:00.000-04:002008-10-14T23:32:00.000-04:00Any idea where I can pick up one of those campaign...Any idea where I can pick up one of those campaign buttons, Jack?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16801678948951993302008-10-14T22:59:00.000-04:002008-10-14T22:59:00.000-04:00Yep. ACORN is a perfectly good reason to vote for ...Yep. ACORN is a perfectly good reason to vote for Chuck Baldwin. I'm with you there. I used to support Obama but after all this crap with ACORN I think I'm going to vote for the Gene Amondson/Leroy Pletten ticket.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-53887766386264180872008-10-14T22:40:00.000-04:002008-10-14T22:40:00.000-04:00By the way this ACORN thing is very disturbing.The...By the way this ACORN thing is very disturbing.<BR/>The system is corrupt.<BR/>I'm voting Chuck Baldwin.<BR/>Both major parties are corrupt and need a message sent to them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-43840022646872570902008-10-14T22:21:00.000-04:002008-10-14T22:21:00.000-04:00I'm starting to think Virginia can turn blue.If yo...I'm starting to think Virginia can turn blue.<BR/><BR/>If you look at Real Clear Politics 2004 final NATIONAL poll average, it was Bush 48.9% Kerry 47.4%.<BR/><BR/>Right now Real Clear Politics has it McCain 42.0% Obama 50.2%.<BR/><BR/>Lets do the math:<BR/>48.9-42.0=6.9% drop republican<BR/>50.2-47.4=2.8% increase democrat<BR/><BR/>6.9%+2.8%= a difference of 9.7%<BR/><BR/>Now keep in mind that these are NATIONAL averages that could have nothing to do with Virginia, but as of right now I would predict an Obama win in Virginia BARELY.<BR/><BR/>I still think that of the 5 most watched/competitive states (Nevada Colorado Florida Ohio Virginia) Obama's margin of victory in those states will be in that order, with him winning Nevada with the highest margin and Virginia with the lowest margin, and that is IF Obama wins Virginia.<BR/><BR/>Nevada and Colorado have increasing Mexican populations that will make Obama cruise in those states.<BR/>With the economic colapse/recession the big senior citizen population in florida will want change and therefor vote Obama plus the white population is dwindling in Florida.<BR/>Ohio has a lot of Reagan Democrats and a reasonably high white population, but I expect Obama to still win Ohio.<BR/>Virginia is a southern state but is changing, the question is, are there enough southerners to keep Obama from winning Virginia, we will see.<BR/><BR/>The 5 states in order of Obama's margin of victory:<BR/>1 Nevada<BR/>2 Colorado<BR/>3 Florida<BR/>4 Ohio<BR/>5 Virginia<BR/><BR/>By the way I'm the Anonymous mentioned in this post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24954304864546460492008-10-14T21:57:00.000-04:002008-10-14T21:57:00.000-04:00I'm pretty sure that if the election shits 8.3% th...I'm pretty sure that if the election shits 8.3% then you have to have at least one state switch by that much. And we've seen much bigger switches than that in the past. FiveThirtyEight has <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/electoral-history-charts.html" REL="nofollow">electoral history charts</A> since 1948. Discounting extreme examples caused by the Civil Rights Movement, such as Alabama being D+14 in 1960 and R+69 in 1964, it's not difficult to find huge swings. For example, Vermont was R+17 in JFK's 1960 victory and D+33 in LBJ's landslide, a swing of 50 points. Oklahoma went from R+50 in 1972 to R+1 in 1976.<BR/><BR/>Even consecutive similar elections can produce significant swings. 1952 and 1956 are as similar as they come. Both had the same candidates for both parties and were clear victories for Eisenhower, though not of 1984 proportions. But there were significant swings both ways between 1952 and 1956. Louisiana, for example, was D+6 in 1952, and R+14 in 1956.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps more interesting is to look at the relative electoral history charts below the "absolute" [for lack of a better term] charts. This allows us to eliminate any "landslide effect" and see how the state changed relative to the rest of the country. We see cases of huge swings relative to the electorate at large. Again ignoring LBJ losing the Deep South, and Carter's 59-point relative gain in GA in 1976, there are plenty of large switches, such as Maine going 14 points more Republican than the country in 1960 and 15 points more Democratic in 1964, a 29 point relative shift. Of course, 1964 numbers are distorted by the huge margins of victory Goldwater won in the Deep South, but even when looking at other years there are a number of 20 point shifts.<BR/><BR/>The conclusion to be drawn from this rather long-winded comment is that an 8-point shift is not impossible, or unusual, even in similar elections, especially given situations such as the changing demographics in VA and NC.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com